Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory quotation of mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2983.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2966.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.56%, 4.09% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of calcium carbide fell slightly this week, with the carbide commodity index of 77.73 on October 11.

II. Trend Analysis

(1) Products:

The price of calcium carbide in Northwest China dropped slightly this week: Ovidiang quoted 2950 yuan/ton this week, the price was stable temporarily; Shaanxi Coal Industry quoted 2800 yuan/ton this week, the price was stable temporarily; Inner Mongolia China Federation quoted 3000 yuan/ton this weekend, compared with the beginning of the week, the price fell 50 yuan/ton; Ningxia Xingping this week quoted 2950 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the price is stable temporarily.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2800-3000 yuan/ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2800-2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 3000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material market: This week’s coke ex-factory quotation was temporarily stable, at 1716.67 yuan/ton, down 26.68% from the same period last year. Compared with last year, the price of raw materials in the upstream has fallen considerably and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC ex-factory prices fell slightly this week. The price of PVC fell from 6725.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6695.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.45%, down 1.69% from the same period last year. Downstream PVC market slightly declined, downstream customers on the procurement of calcium carbide in general, the overall view of this week’s slight decline in PVC market has a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in September, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Compared with last year, the price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price has fallen considerably, the cost support is not enough, and the positive impact on the price of calcium carbide is limited. The price of PVC in the downstream has slightly fallen, and the purchase enthusiasm of customers in the downstream is general. Later, the market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in mid-October, and the ex-factory price may be maintained at around 2950 yuan/ton.

I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to a large number of data from business associations, the market of epichlorohydrin has risen recently. On Tuesday (October 8), the average price of enterprises was 15 500 yuan per ton, on October 12, the average price of enterprises was 16 333.33 yuan per ton, and the five-day increase of epichlorohydrin was 5.38%.

II. Market analysis:

Products: The market of epichlorohydrin has been rising recently. The mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin was 15 500-16 000 yuan/ton on the 8th, with high offer from the holder and cautious wait-and-see downstream. The price of epichlorohydrin rose on the 10th, with an average price of 16,000 yuan per ton. The mood of market rally remained unchanged, and low-cost supplies were hard to find. Mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin rose to 16333.33 yuan/ton on November 11, with factory spot tightening, holder’s offer rising, market negotiation focus pushing upward, downstream users digest more inventory and contracts, and are not enthusiastic about new single-track high purchasing, mostly just in need of purchasing. On the 12th, the mainstream price of epichlorohydrin in domestic market ranged from 16,000 to 16,500 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: In recent days, the market price of propylene in Shandong upstream region (10.8-10.11) rose slightly, with an increase of 0.69%. Early October is the National Day holiday. Due to the policy of limited production, propylene prices remained stable and occasionally declined during the holiday. After the end of the policy, most of the initial prices remained stable. Enterprise prices began to rise on the 10th, and some of them increased on the 11th. Currently, the market turnover is around 7450-7650 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is 7450 yuan/ton. Up to the 12th, downstream epoxy resin with rising raw materials, the focus of discussion is strong, the spot supply is tight.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 40th week (10.7-10.11) of 2019, there were 21 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 5 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were dichloromethane (9.96%), epichlorohydrin (8.89%) and ammonium nitrate (8.66%). There are 41 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are crude benzene (-8.41%), cyclohexanone (-8.10%) and hydrochloric acid (-8.00%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.4%.

3. Future market forecast:

Analysts of business association epichlorohydrin think that the slightly rising market of propylene in the upstream and the strong operation of epoxy resin in the downstream are all good for epichlorohydrin. The supply side is still tight to support the price of epichlorohydrin rising continuously. It is expected that the short-term epichlorohydrin market will go up mainly. The Focus still needs to pay attention to the information guidance of mainstream manufacturers in the upstream and downstream.

Price Trend

According to the data of the business associations’list, the broken line of pure benzene this month is higher than that at the end of the month. On August 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5200-5300 yuan/ton, and on September 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5500-5900 yuan/ton. Overall, it rose by 9.14% compared with the end of last month. On the 2nd, 11th and 18th, there was a significant increase, and prices began to fall on the 23rd.

II. Analytical Review

1. Crude Oil: On September 14, Saudi Arabia’s largest crude oil facility was attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles, resulting in a suspension of more than 5 million barrels/day production capacity. Saudi oil output and exports were greatly affected. International oil prices jumped by more than 10%. Pure benzene rose sharply from 16 to 18 days as international oil prices soared and commodity markets improved. This month, WTI oil prices rose by 1.64% compared with last month, while Brent oil prices rose by 5.75%.

2. Products: At the beginning of the month, due to the lower inventory of pure benzene in East China and the lower market supply, the price of pure benzene has an obvious rise. Affected by the Saudi Arabian incident on the 16th, crude oil and pure benzene external market soared, driving the domestic market of pure benzene upward. This month, the total spot of pure benzene is on the low side, and the port inventory keeps falling, which supports the high price of pure benzene. At the end of the month, the impact of the Saudi Arabian incident subsided, the crude oil outer disk declined, the price gap between domestic and foreign decreased, and the high price support of pure benzene weakened. In addition, near 11, downstream environmental protection inspection, parking restrictions in some factories, pure benzene just needed insufficient, the market fell.

3. Downstream: At the beginning of this month, downstream styrene rose by 7.9%, which supported the price of pure benzene. The aniline Market has been rising all the way this month, with a monthly increase of more than 20%, forming a favorable support.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude oil: In the latter part, international oil prices will reorganize the volatile range. Saudi Arabia’s resumption of crude oil production, trade war, the situation in the Middle East and the reduction of oil demand are intertwined.

2. Domestic and foreign markets: Likon: The recent blue sky defense battle has strong influence, transportation constraints hinder the recovery of pure benzene market. And near eleven pure benzene just needs to be reduced. Advantages: Port stocks in East China are declining and imports of pure benzene are on the low side.

Considering comprehensively, it is expected that pure benzene market or stalemate operation will dominate after the festival.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, DOP prices rose sharply in early and mid September. Since late September, DOP prices fluctuated steadily and plasticizer prices tended to stabilize. As of September 29, the price of DOP in East China was 7950.00 yuan/ton, up 8.41% from 7 333.33 yuan/ton on September 1, and down 15.72% from the same period last year. DOP prices tended to be stable from a sharp rise to shock, and began to decline slightly at the end of September. The downward pressure of DOP increased after the market.

II. Market Analysis

In September, DOP’s external quotation rose sharply, and DOP’s market was good. In September, the price of DOP external disc in China rose sharply, but in late September, the price of DOP external disc was 970.00 yuan/ton, which declined slightly. In Southeast Asia, the price of DOP external disc was 1200 dollars/ton on September 27. The price of DOP external disc rose sharply, and the price of plasticizer DOP external disc rose sharply. The start-up rate of DOP equipment in plasticizer enterprises maintained, overall. The market of plasticizer DOP has weakened.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

In terms of raw materials, the price trend of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride rose sharply in September, the price of octanol rose slightly, the overall cost of DOP rose sharply, the pressure of DOP rose sharply, and the price of DOP rose sharply. However, with the slow growth of DOP raw materials, the prices of phthalic anhydride and octanol fell slightly in different ranges at the end of September, and the momentum of DOP post-market rise weakened, and the pressure of decline increased.

In terms of downstream demand, the recent volatility of PVC market adjusted in September, rising first and then falling. Since late September, the volatility of PVC prices has fallen. Downstream PVC market shocks fell, overall DOP market in the future negative, DOP downward pressure increased.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst, believes that in September, DOP prices rose sharply due to the sharp rise in raw material prices and the revival of the PVC market, the rise in DOP costs, the rise in demand for DOP, the rise in DOP prices and the sharp rise in DOP prices. Since late September, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride and isooctanol has stabilized, and there has been a slight fluctuation drop, which is negative for DOP market. At the same time, the demand for downstream PVC is not good, and the price fluctuation has decreased, which has increased DOP downward pressure. Although DOP cost is still high and the space for decline is limited, the downward trend of plasticizer DOP market has now been realized. Plasticizer market downward pressure increased. DOP market is expected to fall slightly in the future.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic potassium nitrate remained stable this week. The price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was quoted 4375.00 yuan/ton in the week, and the current price fell by 4.63% compared with last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market remains stable, the market trading atmosphere is flat, the attitude of potassium nitrate manufacturers is general, the goods are still available, the starting rate of potassium nitrate manufacturers is low, so the overall stock of potassium nitrate is low, there is no sales pressure, downstream purchasing is just in need, basically no stock, potassium nitrate prices are stable. Domestic potassium nitrate mainstream manufacturers offer 4200-4500 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

The analyst of potassium nitrate of business association thinks that the market of potassium nitrate is stable this week, and the end of September is approaching. The traditional peak season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” is inadequate. With the coming of the eleventh long vacation, it is still mainly a smooth transition, and the market will recover after the festival, mainly due to the demand-side-led price trend.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, the price of n-butanol in domestic market rose slightly this week. As of September 20, the average price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 6 800 yuan/ton (including tax). The price in mainstream areas increased slightly by 33 yuan/ton (including tax) compared with September 16, up 0.49%. At present, the mainstream price range of n-butanol in China is 6 700-7 100 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the domestic butanol market remained stable as a whole. Beginning in mid-week, it was strongly supported by the cost of butanol. The downstream demand was good, the overall trading atmosphere of the market improved, and the barycenter of the butanol market rose. At the beginning of this week, the opening rate was higher than last week, the overall market supply increased, and in some areas. Shipment prices rose slightly. Until September 20, the price of Wanhua chemical n-butanol remained stable in North China and East China this week. The ex-factory quotation in North China was 6900 yuan/ton, the ex-factory quotation in East China was 7100 yuan/ton, the price in South China was increased by 100 yuan/ton and the ex-factory quotation was 7300 yuan/ton. Shandong Luxi plant load this week is medium, inventory is still low, n-butanol quotation than last week callback 100.00 yuan/ton, quoted 6800 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Influenced by the sharp decrease of international crude oil production and the sharp rise of international oil price this week, propylene, the upstream product of n-butanol, began at the beginning of this week. The market price of propylene in Shandong Province has been greatly increased by 200-300 yuan/ton. At present, the market turnover is around 7850-8150 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is 7950 yuan/ton. The market of propylene is in good condition. It is obvious that propylene market is expected to have an upward momentum in the near future.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business society data analysts believe that the recent high-level consolidation of the butanol market, the mainstream market delivery is still stable, the market is changing rapidly, and is closely related to the ups and downs trend.

Price Trend

Potassium sulphate prices have remained stable this week, according to business community price monitoring. Potassium sulphate trade is not hot, demand has not been significantly positive warming up.

II. Market Analysis

The trading atmosphere of potassium sulfate is still flat, and the quotation of enterprises is supported by the cost side and intends to be strong. Mannheim Enterprise Northeast 50% of the mainstream powder factory quoted 2800 ~ 2900 yuan, 52% of the powder 2900 ~ 3000 yuan, 50% of the particle quoted 3000 ~ 3100 yuan. Resource-based potassium sulfate enterprises in Xinjiang Guotuo Luo Potassium 52% offer stable, currently the mainstream out of warehouse 2750 ~ 2800 yuan, northwest water and salt 50% powder outward mainstream inbound offer 2550 ~ 2600 yuan.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium sulphate analysts of business associations believe that the domestic potassium sulphate market is mainly stable in the short term.

Price Trend

From September 15 to 24, the propane market rose sharply and then fell back. On September 15, the average price of propane in Shandong was 3705 yuan/ton, on September 19 it was 3975 yuan/ton, and on September 24 it rose 7.29% and then fell. As of September 24, the average price of propane in Shandong was 3872.5 yuan/ton, which was 2.58% lower than on September 19 and 29.3% lower than the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

September is the traditional sales peak season of propane, the industry also inherently “gold, nine silver and ten” saying, into September, the industry’s expectations of future demand are generally good, early September manufacturers tentative rise, but due to the small temperature changes, propane market demand is not obvious, the increase is limited. The sharp rise of international crude oil led by the Saudi Arabian incident in the latter period opened up an upward channel for the propane market. Influenced by the sharp rise of international crude oil, the international spot price rose rapidly, which led to the wide rise of propane price, and helped boost the trend of “gold, silver and ten”. In addition, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, downstream inventory demand, active market entry, smooth shipment of manufacturers, low inventory, hot market atmosphere, prices continue to rise, Shandong market prices rise 300-500 yuan, most manufacturers prices exceed 4000 yuan.

However, with the continuous decline of international crude oil on the 18th and 19th, the cost of imported gas was reduced broadly, and the market mentality was negative, and the market gradually returned to rationality. The downstream wait-and-see mood increased, the mentality was more cautious, the shipment of manufacturers was not smooth, and the trading atmosphere was significantly weaker than the previous period. Although upstream has a mentality of protecting the market, but the international market trend is weak, the momentum of rise is insufficient, 20 began to fall, manufacturers continue to yield mainly, most prices fell below the 4000 yuan mark. At present, domestic market prices are quite high, there is still room for a short-term downward trend, but it is difficult to fall to the low level before the price rise. In October, the expected rise in CP prices has supported the market. With the arrival of the Eleventh mini-long holiday, the demand for inventory in the lower reaches of the market may change the situation of decline.

Saudi Amy Corp. announced in September that the price of propane was lowered and the price of butane was flat. Propane was $350 per ton, down by $20 per ton from last month; butane was $360 per ton, flat from last month. The cost of long-term approximate cargo propane converted to onshore is around 3 022 yuan/ton and that of butane 3100 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts believe that although the market demand fluctuations in September are not obvious, the international crude oil boom boosted Jinjiu, and the propane market rose more than expected. At present, the market is weak and the downstream wait-and-see mood still exists. In October, the expectation of CPI increase is still in place, which supports the market to a certain extent. Although there is a decline in the short term, there is little room for it. Later, with the cool weather and the drop of temperature, the market demand will rise. In addition, with the Eleventh mini-long holiday coming, the downstream inventory is expected before and after the festival, and the propane market is expected to usher in a new wave of rising prices in October.

I. Price Trend Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market

Price Curve of Polyformaldehyde

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the monitoring of business associations, the average quotation of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong this week was 4800 yuan/ton, and the quotation was stable.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Shandong Aldehyde Industry Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30,000 tons of polyformaldehyde, the price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. produces 9000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. produces 10,000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan per ton with tax. The price of the manufacturer is firm, and the demand of downstream resins and pesticides is general.

Industry chain: Upstream methanol situation, according to the business community price monitoring, the domestic methanol market continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2098 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 2180 yuan/ton, up 3.91%. The downstream demand for polyformaldehyde is general.

3. Future Market Forecast

The price of raw material methanol has risen, and the market demand for polyformaldehyde is general. Polyformaldehyde analysts of business associations believe that the momentum of price rise of polyformaldehyde is weak.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic ethanol market has a narrow fluctuation. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5414 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 5400 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price of domestic ethanol market fell by 0.26% during the week, rising by 0.37% annually, and falling by 2.99% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic alcohol market fluctuated slightly in some areas, and returned to the northeast after the festival. This week, the quotation of enterprises was stable, the enterprises executed more contracts and orders, the inventory situation of enterprises was still acceptable, and the market performance was stable. The production of enterprises in Henan was stable, the shipment situation of enterprises was improved, and the market price was rising. This week, the price of the region remained stable, the production of threol plant, the downstream ethyl acetate plant returned to normal, basically maintained just in need of purchase; Haiying and Luocheng Chao devices of molasses alcohol production enterprises in South China were normal, supported by good supply side, prices remained firm, cassava alcohol enterprise shipment mentality was positive, the price was small. In Guangdong Province, the supply of goods is stable. Lower prices are available downstream. Local enterprises maintain a small supply. Market prices are kept in order. There is a phenomenon of low prices in anhydrous areas.

Industry chain: Upstream, corn: corn prices fluctuate little. Recent market arrivals are general. Processing enterprises wait for new maize to be listed in North China. They consume more part of the inventory and the market price fluctuates little. Due to the insufficient supply of maize and the weak growth of demand, we expect that the overall price of maize will continue to decline steadily, moderately and weakly in the near future, and the market trend will be weaker in September. After the closure of the auction in October and the “gap period” before the new season of Maize in the main northern production areas will be concentrated on the market, the price of maize will be periodic. Upward space.

In terms of downstream ethyl acetate, the domestic ethyl acetate Market is weak this week. After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the domestic suppliers started to work steadily, and the new Taixing Jinjiang plant has entered the operational stage. The market supply is sufficient. Considering the stock pressure of the National Day in the later period, some ethyl acetate suppliers voluntarily let profits to ship and push the market transaction to go one after another. Low. In the short term, the air is still clear in the market, the downstream demand is stable, the market supply is increasing, and the situation of oversupply is more obvious. Considering the transportation and inventory of ethyl acetate during the later National Day, it is expected that the domestic market of ethyl acetate will remain weak in the near future.

3. Future Market Forecast

Corn alcohol raw materials have been listed one after another, the cost is negative, the enterprise equipment remains basically stable, orders continue to be executed, and the short-term market is expected to remain in order; cassava alcohol raw material prices are difficult to have a significant downward trend, cost pressure is difficult to ease in the short term, a small number of start-up enterprises, downstream to maintain rigidity. It is expected that the market will be stable in the short term and the price of molasses alcohol will remain firm in the short term, supported by the favorable supply. Ethanol analysts at business associations expect the alcohol market to be stable and small before National Day.