According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke in August first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase in prices. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 2435 yuan/ton on September 2 and 2390 yuan/ton on August 1, with a monthly increase of 1.88%.

Cost wise: Since August, international crude oil prices have weakened, and the monthly average price has been decreasing for two consecutive months. The main negative factors for the decline in oil prices in August are the firm stance of OPEC+on increasing production, which has created a negative atmosphere, and the United States’ push for Russia Ukraine peace talks, resulting in a significant easing of the geopolitical situation.
Supply side: In early August, the transaction of petroleum coke in the local refining industry was good, and downstream carbon enterprises stocked up and replenished their inventory. In addition, the low inventory of petroleum coke in refineries led to a continuous rise in petroleum coke prices; In mid to late August, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was average, and refinery prices continued to decline; The enthusiasm of downstream enterprises for petroleum coke procurement is generally low: downstream aluminum carbon mainly maintains the essential demand for petroleum coke, the negative electrode material market mainly purchases petroleum coke on demand, and graphite electrode enterprises have low production enthusiasm and limited procurement of petroleum coke. In mid to early August, the production of petroleum coke at ports was active, and port inventories continued to decrease. Southwest silicon companies started construction one after another, which was favorable for Formosa Plastics’ coke production; In the latter half of the month, the shipment of petroleum coke from the port was still acceptable, and the spot goods at the port increased, resulting in a slight decline in coke prices.
On the demand side: In August, silicon companies in Xinjiang resumed production, which led to a slight increase in overall production and supply. In mainstream regions, the operating rate of Northwest China ranks first with a reference of around 76%, followed by Yunnan where the operating rate remains at around 68%, and Xinjiang and Sichuan where the operating rate of metal silicon is around 56-57%. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.
The market for sulfur calcined coke rose in August, with most companies having low inventory levels and a strong willingness to push up prices for newly signed orders.
The domestic production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.035 million tons (close to the industry limit), with limited short-term growth; Some enterprises have reduced production (Shandong Weiqiao reduced production by 500000 tons, Qinghai Zhonglv reduced production by 400000 tons) and resumed production (Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai Aluminum plans to resume production of another 50000 tons within this year). Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.
Market forecast: Currently, downstream demand for petroleum coke is supporting the petroleum coke market, and a new round of pricing adjustments for downstream pre baked anodes is positive for market sentiment. It is expected that petroleum coke may rise slightly in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 1st to 29th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2389 yuan/ton to 2241 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 6.17% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 10.18%.

At the beginning of the month, there was a trend of recovery in the domestic methanol market. Northwest olefin factories increased their external procurement volume, coupled with the positive effects of some units still undergoing maintenance and low inventory levels in enterprises. Upstream enterprises shipped at high prices, while downstream enterprises passively followed suit.
In the first half of the month, the domestic methanol market mainly rose, with local supply maintenance combined with the increase in olefin production in mainland China. Against the backdrop of low inventory, the tight supply of circulating goods in the market led to companies being reluctant to sell at high prices. Traders were actively chasing after the price increase due to the impact of buying, while downstream buyers passively purchased at high prices.
In the middle of the month, there were regional differences in the domestic methanol market, and macro policies pushed for a stronger domestic market than ports, which had a certain boost to prices. The high import expectations of the port methanol market and the rapid accumulation of inventory expectations have a strong suppression on the market.
At the end of the month, domestic methanol facilities resumed, but the support of the mainland market was slightly insufficient, and the high price of gas in the market was not good.
As of the close on August 29th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2509 for methanol futures opened at 2373 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2385 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2357 yuan/ton. It closed at 2361 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 7 yuan or 0.30% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 419697 lots, the position is 821019, and the daily increase is 35186.
On the cost side, with sufficient coal supply, the rate of inventory decline has slowed down, and prices are running weakly, which may bear some downward pressure and weaken the support on the cost side. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The market for glacial acetic acid is experiencing a partial upward trend. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is stable with an upward trend. Some factories in the main production areas have a strong sentiment of destocking, maintaining low prices and weak stability to continue the market. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is running smoothly. The price of raw material methanol is strongly supported by high costs, and the supply of dimethyl ether has decreased. With the support of its own low supply, the trading volume has significantly improved compared to the previous period. Most downstream products are affected by the decline in methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the overall equipment recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of August 28th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 321.5-322.5 US dollars/ton. FOB US Gulf methanol market closing price of 94-95 cents/gallon; The closing price of the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 287.5-288.5 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
In the future forecast, there will be an increase in the reverse flow of coastal cargo volume in the near future, and the resumption of maintenance projects in the domestic real estate area is relatively concentrated, with some olefin extraction efforts weakening. There is also a possibility of further weakening in the domestic real estate area, and attention should be paid to adjusting the pace of freight price increases. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will consolidate weakly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7453 yuan/ton on August 1st and 7445 yuan/ton on August 29th, a decrease of 0.11%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9516 yuan/ton on August 1st and 9650 yuan/ton on August 29th, an increase of 1.40%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7975 yuan/ton on August 1st and 7982 yuan/ton on August 29th, an increase of 0.09%.

Polyethylene prices fluctuated in August, with high-pressure products showing a strong trend, while linear and low-pressure products mainly showed a consolidation trend with little change. On the supply side, the trend of high-voltage products is relatively strong, mainly due to maintenance of high-voltage equipment, tight supply, and strong quotes from merchants. As the end of the month approaches, polyethylene spot resources will decrease and pre-sales will increase. On the demand side, it is transitioning from the off-season to the peak season, and demand has improved. The agricultural film industry has started to recover, but after the market rebound, transactions are following cautiously, limiting the upward space for prices. On the cost side, the recent high volatility of international oil prices has provided some bottom support for polyethylene. The Chinese government is about to launch a comprehensive rectification of the petrochemical and refining industries, and domestic policies are favorable for the polyethylene market.
Short term supply pressure has eased to some extent; September is the traditional peak season for polyethylene, and there is a positive expectation for demand. However, downstream enterprises are currently purchasing according to demand, and their attitude is relatively cautious; Boosted by domestic policies; It is expected that polyethylene will mainly experience strong fluctuations.