From February 1 to February 25, 2022, the domestic coal tar production price is the main player. The price at the beginning of the month is 4760 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month is 4760 yuan / ton, flat.

On February 24, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 164.14, up 0.17 points from yesterday, down 3.58% from the highest point of 170.23 points in the cycle (2021-11-24), and up 248.12% from the lowest point of 47.15 points on December 6, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

The coal tar market fell into a “V” trend in February. The market opened after the festival. Some coking enterprises auctioned, and the price rose slightly. Some enterprises still implemented pre Festival contracts. Supply: affected by the Winter Olympics, the production limit is relatively strict, the tar output is low, and the supply is slightly tight. At present, the demand for replenishment in the downstream is not very strong, and the price is slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. Then, under the influence of limited downstream replenishment demand and poor overall procurement, the bidding price at the end of the month fell as a whole and basically fell back to the price at the beginning of the month. In the downstream, near the end of the month, the overall profit of the deep processing industry is low, the prices of coal asphalt and industrial naphthalene fall, and the support for tar prices is limited. After the Winter Olympic Games, the first round of price increase of coking enterprises has been fully implemented. At present, the manufacturers have improved the operation to a certain extent, the supply has increased slightly, the downstream price reduction mentality is strong, and the purchase is mainly based on demand.

The next winter Paralympic Games will be opened. At that time, coking enterprises and downstream deep processing enterprises will face a certain degree of production restriction. Affected by the decline in profits of downstream enterprises, the price of tar is expected to be under pressure, but the fluctuation of tar trend is expected to be limited due to tight supply.

Trade name: polybutadiene rubber BR9000

Latest price (February 24): 13790 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, as of February 24, the domestic price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 13790 yuan / ton, down 0.07% from the previous day; The ex factory price of the main suppliers of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was stable. The ex factory price of Daqing and Jinzhou Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 13700 yuan / ton, and the price of northeast warehouse was increased; After the festival, the price of raw butadiene continued to rise, supported by the cost side. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the offer of some businesses is slightly reduced by about 100 yuan / ton. In Qilu, Dushanzi and Zhenhua Shunding markets in East China, it is reported to be 13150 ~ 13900 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the international crude oil fluctuates widely and the price and cost of raw butadiene support, but the downstream demand is weak at present. It is expected that the butadiene rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on February 23 was 5091.67 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of February 21, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 866300 tons, an increase of 65800 tons or 8.22% compared with last Monday, and a decrease of 11500 tons or 1.31% compared with last Thursday.

Today’s futures price: the opening price of the main contract is 5017 yuan / ton, and the settlement price is 5016 yuan / ton. The highest price was 5065 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 4960 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 5024 yuan / ton, down 0.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 284032 hands and the position is 303705.

In the afternoon, MEG outer plate was sorted out, and the recent cargo negotiation was near 660. Oil prices fluctuated at a high level and jumped on Tuesday to a seven-year high. They fell slightly today after expecting that Western sanctions against Russia would not affect oil supply. Downstream polyester procurement slowed down, manufacturers’ inventory was high, and terminal orders were weak.

Forecast: Although the cost side support is strong and the current valuation of ethylene glycol is low, there is a lack of substantive positive pull in the downstream, which reduces the ceiling of the uplink and is expected to fluctuate at a low level.

In mid February, the domestic EVA market continued to rise. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 17833.33 yuan / ton on February 13 and 18633.33 yuan / ton on February 22, with an increase of 4.49% during the week and 3.52% compared with January 1.

As of February 22, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

product . manufactor . model . Ex factory price

EVA . Yanshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd 18J3 1.8000 yuan / ton

EVA . Beijing Organic . Y2022 . 17700 yuan / ton

EVA . BASF Yangzi . V5110J. 20200 yuan / ton

In mid February, the domestic EVA market price continued to rise. The ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises increased periodically within the week to support the market mentality. At present, the overall supply of goods in the market is tight. In addition, the price of goods in the auction is up, which has brought some positive support to the market. The mentality of merchants is strong, and the price increases with it.

At present, the upstream ethylene market continues to rise, and the cost side has brought some support to the market. Near the end of the month, some petrochemical enterprises began maintenance, and the market supply is expected to decrease. However, the current market trading volume is relatively limited. It is expected that the price of EVA market may still rise in the short term.

Data monitoring shows that the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market increased slightly in the week (14-20), with a main report of about 17128.57 yuan / ton on the 14th and about 17157.14 yuan / ton on the 20th, with a slight increase of 0.17% in the week.

Industrial chain: acrylic acid: the market price in East China increased slightly this week (14-20 days). The main price was about 16100 yuan / ton on the 14th, up 0.84% from 15966.67 on the 14th. The price of raw material acrylic acid fluctuated and increased, the market price of raw material propylene was high, the cost support remained, the downstream construction started to rise, the market supply and demand was balanced, the focus of negotiation was relatively stable, and the domestic market rose slightly. Acrylonitrile: the average price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market is about 11000 yuan / ton; The price of raw material acrylic acid fluctuated and increased, the market price of raw material propylene was high, the cost support remained, the downstream construction started to rise, the market supply and demand was balanced, the focus of negotiation was relatively stable, and the domestic market rose slightly. In conclusion, the price of polyacrylamide raw materials has increased slightly recently, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic LNG market continued to weaken this week (24-28), with an average price of 4166.67 yuan / ton on the 24th and 3866.67 yuan / ton on the 28th, down 7.2% this week. After the Spring Festival holiday, the prices in many places continued to rise. In some areas, they rose to above 6000 yuan, and the focus shifted upward. Due to the factors of rising costs, the liquid plants had a strong feeling of supporting the price. In addition, the higher inlet price boosted the rising atmosphere in the domestic market. The liquid price fluctuated greatly, and the actual transaction was mainly negotiated. According to the analysis of business society, after the Spring Festival, the market will gradually return to active, demand will increase, supply will decrease, and the overall trading will be good, supporting the rise of domestic liquid prices. It is expected that there will still be an upward trend in the short term, but considering the downstream receiving capacity, the rise may slow down, and the overall trend will be stable and good.

Future forecast: shortly after the start of construction in, the overall change range of raw material prices is small, most of the prices are relatively stable, some of them rise slightly, the enterprise inventory is relatively sufficient, and the logistics is normal. It is expected that in the future, with the increase of downstream demand, the local market will rise, and at present, it is mainly stable and slightly adjusted.

According to the market monitoring data, the average price of flake soda was about 4333.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the average price of flake soda at the end of the week was about 4365.66%. At present, the domestic flake alkali market maintains a good trend.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of Shandong market was 1092.5 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of Shandong market was about 1130 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 3.43% and 139.15% compared with the same period last year. Caustic soda prices rose this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1050-1150 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 32% liquid alkali in Hebei is about 1150-1250 yuan / ton. This is mainly due to the maintenance of the main caustic soda plant, the reduction of inventory and the positive downstream demand.

Business analysts believe that the domestic flake alkali market price is dominated by active market trading and active shipment by traders. Generally speaking, the short-term or high operation of flake alkali price depends on the demand of downstream market.

This week, the domestic MIBK market continued to rise strongly, the spot resources in the post holiday market were limited, and there were few active offers from cargo holders. Up to now, the market offer in East China is 13500-14000 yuan / ton, and the push up mentality is still the same. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market offer in East China was 12900 yuan / ton on February 10 and 13666.7 yuan / ton on February 17, with an increase of 5.94% during the week.

From the raw material side, the acetone market is mainly downward this week, and the mainstream negotiation has fallen to 5850-5900 yuan / ton. The mentality of the cargo holders on the floor is under pressure, and the offer continues to decline, while the market inquiry of other downstream products is limited, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is cold. In this state, shipment sentiment increased, but the follow-up of firm offer was obviously insufficient, and the trading volume on the floor was limited. Up to now, the negotiation price in East China is 5800-5900 yuan / ton, and that in the surrounding areas of Shandong and Yanshan is 6000 yuan / ton.

In the downstream rubber additives market, the orders for accelerators are flat, and the downstream tire enterprises start normal and purchase on demand.

From the perspective of business community, although the upstream and downstream are not much good, and the upstream is more bad, the on-site supply of goods is limited, the goods holders do not offer at a low price and intend to make a firm offer. It is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 14150 yuan / ton on February 7 and 14275 yuan / ton on February 14. The price of caprolactam rose 0.88% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam prices rose slightly this week. The raw material market rises first and then decreases, and the cost support is acceptable. At present, the supply is small, and the market is stronger after the festival. As of February 14, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 14700 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14700 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14700 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical Liquid caprolactam liquid has no quotation, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. Shandong Hualu Hengsheng caprolactam liquid price is 14600 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s unit capacity is 300000 tons / year.

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene rose first and then fell. During the festival, crude oil rose broadly, driving the general rise of energy related commodities. The cost side was stronger, the superposition of good enterprise shipments, the rise of downstream styrene, multiple positive boost, and the positive rise of pure benzene. However, the spot transaction of styrene downstream was insufficient, and there were new plant output within the superposition week. The news was bad and the price fell. Crude oil and styrene prices both weakened, pure benzene operators took profits and prices fell rapidly.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that at present, there is less supply of caprolactam, and some enterprises operate under reduced load. The downstream demand is weak and the transaction is general. The cost side fluctuates slightly without much change. It is expected that the stable finishing operation of caprolactam will be dominated in the short term.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on February 15 was 5258.33 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of February 14, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 805000 tons, an increase of 52500 tons or 7.02% compared with last Monday, and an increase of 51000 tons or 0.64% compared with last Thursday. The cumulative stock market of the port has continued recently.

On February 14, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 5150 yuan / ton, up 22.5 yuan / ton from the previous trading day and down 141.5 yuan / ton from last week.

In terms of units, Maoming Petrochemical 1# high-pressure polyethylene, full density polyethylene, SBS rubber, 1# ethylene glycol and 1# styrene are planned to be put into operation on March 15 and shut down on February 25.

In the afternoon, the center of gravity of Meg’s outer plate strengthened slightly, and the recent cargo negotiation was around us $690 / ton. The upstream crude oil fluctuates at a high level and has not yet reached the top. Many prediction institutions expect the crude oil to reach more than US $100 / barrel in the long term. Downstream demand has gradually recovered slowly, and polyester operating rate has gradually increased. However, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is also at a high level, the supply side is under pressure, and ethylene oxide is also in the state of loss production, which can not support ethylene glycol.

Wide range: limited rise and fall.

After the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic propane market has been lowered to varying degrees, and the Shandong market as a whole shows a trend of rising first and then falling. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6125.75 yuan / ton on February 7 and 5955.75 yuan / ton on February 14. The decline rate in the week was 2.78%, up 47.51% compared with the same period last year.

As of February 14, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region February 14th

East China 6000-6050 yuan / ton

North China 5900-6050 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5400-5900 yuan / ton

Northeast China 6000-6330 yuan / ton

With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the propane Market in Shandong increased after the festival. The strong international crude oil price during the holidays brought some positive support to the market. In addition, the CP price of propylene butane increased in varying degrees in February, and the market rose first after the festival. However, the market then entered a downward trend. Due to the relatively high price of Shandong propane market compared with the same period, the downstream acceptance capacity is limited, and the current terminal consumption capacity is not as expected, Shandong propane market mainly fell.

Saudi Aramco announced in February 2022 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was $775 / ton, up $35 / ton from the previous month; Butane is 775 dollars / ton, up 65 dollars / ton from the previous month.

On the whole, the price in the southern market is relatively strong compared with that in the northern market, but it is also weakened to varying degrees. At present, the sharp rise in international crude oil prices has brought obvious support to the market. In addition, with the price reduction, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry has improved. It is expected that the price of propane market will stop falling in the short term and focus on narrow adjustment.