There were significant differences in spot varieties in July. LLDPE in East China showed a trend of first falling and then rising in the month, LDPE showed a continuous rising trend in the month, and HDPE showed a trend of first rising and then falling in the month. However, on the whole, the fluctuation range of the three spot varieties is limited, as follows:

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8300.00 yuan / ton on July 1 and 8383.33 yuan / ton on July 26. The increase rate in July was 1.00%, an increase of 16.98% compared with the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 10500.00 yuan / ton on July 25 and 10575.00 yuan / ton on July 26. The increase rate in July was 1.00%, an increase of 16.98% compared with the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9133.33 yuan / ton on July 25 and 9133.33 yuan / ton on July 26. The increase rate in July was 1.00%, an increase of 16.98% compared with the same period last year.

Overall, LLDPE and LDPE rose and HDPE fell in July. Among them, LDPE increased most significantly, with an increase of more than 4%. LLDPE and HDPE were mainly multi horizontal consolidation, with limited fluctuation range. In the first half of July, most petrochemical enterprises raised the ex factory price, the international crude oil rose, the cost support was ok, the market trading atmosphere improved, the merchant’s quotation followed the market, the main actors of LDPE and HDPE, and LLDPE fell slightly under the influence of the futures market. In the second half of the month, LLDPE stopped falling upward, LDPE continued to push up, and HDPE turned down. The centralized maintenance of linear coal chemical plant is mainly focused, and the supply of low-cost goods is relatively small. In addition, the volatility of the futures market has increased, which has brought some support to the spot market. Due to low production capacity, the price of high pressure is relatively strong. The low-voltage market will reduce the price according to the situation. At present, the terminal is cautious in taking goods and mainly replenishing them as needed.

In the upstream ethylene market, the external ethylene market has shown an overall upward trend recently. The price of ethylene in Asia is stable. As of the 22nd, CFR Northeast Asia closed at USD 1001-1011 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 966-976 / ton. The price center of ethylene market in Europe moved upward. As of the 22nd, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1160-1170 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1063-1071 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States is stable. As of the 22nd, the price is US $1045-1062 / T. recently, the external ethylene market fluctuated and rose. The increase of ethylene in the United States in the early stage is relatively large and stable in the near future. Generally speaking, the overall ethylene external market demand is good recently, the purchasing atmosphere is active, the transaction is good, and the center of gravity of ethylene market moves upward.

On July 26, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2109 was 8315, the highest price was 8335, the lowest price was 8160, the closing price was 8165, the former settlement price was 8345, the settlement price was 8240, down 180, down 2.16%, the trading volume was 424648, the position was 306683, and the daily position was increased by – 3926（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, Liansu futures market is opening lower and lower, petrochemical prices rise and fall differently, and the positive support of the market is limited. In terms of demand, it is expected that there will be a slight increase in the later stage of agricultural film, and the operating rate of pipes will decrease significantly. In terms of inventory, there is no obvious inventory pressure in the upstream, and the downstream maintains replenishment on demand and continues the negotiation mode. The mentality of merchants is general, and the market offer fluctuates in a narrow range. It is expected that the PE spot market may rise slightly in August.

On July 26, the closing price of 2109, the main contract of asphalt futures, was 3104 yuan / ton, down 2.33%. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 26, the average spot price of domestic asphalt was 3366 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.88% and a year-on-year increase of 33.33%.

At present, the domestic asphalt spot market continues to be mainly stable and minor. Some areas in the North just need to recover slightly, and the overall demand in the south is slightly flat due to typhoon factors. The market demand in some areas is slightly flat, and the loading and shipment of refineries is limited due to typhoon factors.

As of July 26, the factory quotation summary of major asphalt manufacturers in Shandong:

Enterprise, device, price

HSBC petrochemical A 2.3 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit was started, with a daily output of 2000 tons 3850 yuan / ton

Jincheng petrochemical Daily output 1500 tons /

Kelida There are two sets of atmospheric and vacuum distillation, one set of 3.2 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation and one set of 1.2 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation 3450 yuan / ton

Dongming Petrochemical A 3 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit intermittently produces asphalt, and the unit is converted to residue, with a daily output of 2500-3000 tons during normal production 3850 yuan / ton

Shenchi chemical / 3240 yuan / ton

In the short term, although the rise of international crude oil has a certain support for the atmosphere of the domestic asphalt market, the downturn of terminal demand still restricts the spot price of asphalt. Asphalt analysts of business society expect that the asphalt spot market will be dominated by shock consolidation.

Price analysis of this week (7.19-7.23, the same below)

According to the data of business agency, the price of metal silicon rose sharply this week. As of the 23rd, the average price of domestic metal silicon market was 14650 yuan / ton, up about 200 yuan / ton compared with last week, an increase of 1.44% month on month.

The prices of 441# silicon in various regions on the 23rd are as follows:

The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port is 14800-14900 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14850 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port is 14800-14900 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14850 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 14500-14600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14550 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 14300-14500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14400 yuan / ton; Fujian #441 metal trading range is 13800-14000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13900 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai #441 metal silicon is 15300-15400 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15350 yuan / ton.

Market conditions this week

Affected by the epidemic situation and limited film in Yunnan, the local operating rate is low, and the superposition of some raw clean coal remains high due to transportation costs; An accident at a large factory in Xinjiang led to a reduction in production. Affected by the news, downstream customers’ purchase enthusiasm increased; High electricity prices in Fujian and strong demand from downstream customers have driven up silicon prices.

In the downstream, the overall high and stable operation of the domestic silicone DMC market. As of July 22, the average market price of silicone DMC was 30666.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.11% compared with last week’s five ring ratio.

Future forecast

At present, the epidemic situation and limited film production in Yunnan affect the output of metal silicon, the manufacturers have less inventory and tight spot supply, the demand for downstream silicone is positive, the metal silicon market is in an environment of “short supply”, the possibility of silicon price decline is small, and it will still be in an upward trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda is running smoothly. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price is 1716.67 yuan / ton. On July 18, the commodity index of bicarbonate was 113.94, which was the same as yesterday, down 6.36% from 121.68 (2020-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 29.08% from 88.27, the lowest point on December 22, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now

2、 Market analysis

According to the news agency, the price of sodium bicarbonate is stable for the time being, and the shipment in the downstream market is acceptable. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 1700-1800 yuan, and the downstream demand is OK. It is expected that the price will be stable in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1650-1750 yuan / ton, which is the mainstream price in the market, and the downstream demand is acceptable.

In terms of raw materials: according to the monitoring data of the business society, the price in East China is stable, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1900-2000 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is temporarily stable, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda ash is mainly high.

Demand side: downstream medicine, textile and food mainly purchase sodium bicarbonate on demand, and the price of sodium bicarbonate has been consolidated recently. Business analysts believe that: the domestic soda price is stable, the market trading atmosphere is relatively stable, and manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. The price of downstream glass is strong, but it is still wait-and-see for high price soda. The buyers and sellers still play a game on the price, and most of them purchase on demand. In the downstream, medicine, textile and food mainly purchase baking soda on demand. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda may still maintain a narrow consolidation trend in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week, with the quoted price of 230.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 35.21%. Overall, the hydrochloric acid market is stable this week, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index at 60.53 on July 16.

The upstream support is general, and the downstream procurement is weak

From the manufacturer’s quotation, this week’s hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer’s quotation is temporarily stable, the overall market is general. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; At the end of the week, the price of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wenshui was 230 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The quotation of Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid at the weekend is 300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; At the end of the week, Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quoted 160 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the downstream ammonium chloride market price is high, which has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. The difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

Future forecast

In recent years, the market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is general, the cost support is general, the market of ammonium chloride in the downstream is high, and the purchasing intention in the downstream is not strong. Business community analysts believe that hydrochloric acid in the recent small shocks.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (July 19): 5083.33 yuan / ton

On July 19, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose by 116.66 yuan / ton, or 2.35%, compared with the quotation on July 16. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. Downstream PVC market rose slightly recently, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement rose. At the same time, the beginning of a new round of power rationing in Inner Mongolia is the main reason for the price rise of calcium carbide.

It is expected that the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 5200 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the domestic mainstream styrene prices fell this week. On Monday (July 12), the sample enterprise price of business agency was 9412.5 yuan / ton, while the price of sample enterprises on Friday (July 16) was 9312.5 yuan / ton, down 1.06%. Prices rose 71.40 per cent from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Styrene market prices fell this week. On July 12, East China styrene closed near 9350-9450 yuan / T, and on July 16, 9200-9350 yuan / ton was lowered by 100 yuan / ton, which is the price of Zhangjiagang out of tank. On July 12, South China styrene closed near 9500-9550 yuan / ton, and the price remained stable on July 16. The above factories delivered the price. Raw materials, this week crude oil high volatility, pure benzene vibration fell back, ethylene slightly up. The fluctuation of pure benzene in upstream styrene fell this week. On Friday (July 16), the mainstream price of pure benzene was 8530.00 yuan / ton, down slightly compared with 8540.00 yuan / ton on Monday. The basic surface of pure benzene is still optimistic this week, and the price is firm. The second phase of pure benzene Zhejiang Petrochemical will be mass production in late July, but Shandong Weilian chemical and Northern Huajin maintenance will hedge some production, and the price will still be slightly strong.

For ethylene, the mainstream quotation of ethylene on Friday (July 16) was 1048.75 yuan / ton, a small increase from 1031.5 yuan / ton on Monday (July 12). The price of ethylene market is rising and falling in different ways this week, with the overall trend of rising. The demand of the external market is good, the purchasing atmosphere is active and the transaction is good.

In terms of inventory, as of July 14, the inventory of East China port was 805 (-029) million tons, and the inventory fell slightly. However, with the commissioning of new styrene plant, it is expected that the inventory will be tired in the later period. In terms of domestic production, some factories have the performance of reducing amplitude and short-term parking due to profit and failure problems. Zhejiang Petrochemical Industry and Petrochemical Corporation reduced the burden of 1-2 days on July 13 for 1-2 days; Huajin in the North has a total of 170000 tons / year plant, which will be put into parking and maintenance for one month on July 15; Huatai Shengfu plans to reduce the negative operation at the end of month for 400000 tons / year; It is planned that the parking and maintenance of Daqing Petrochemical Company will be 15 days on July 20, 25000 tons / year; Qilu Petrochemical 200000 tons / year is planned to stop and repair 45 days on August 5; Jilin Petrochemical Company was restarted on July 15, 320000 tons / year, and 140000 tons / year was planned to restart on July 22; The 600000 ton / a unit of Gulei petrochemical company was delayed to start up until the end of July, with the increase of unit maintenance and supply increment less than expected. However, with the expected restart of the maintenance unit, the increase of supply end is expected to be obvious in the short term, which can not provide favorable support for styrene price.

Downstream, the overall starting rate of styrene downstream this week is good. PS market, as of Friday (July 16), the main ex factory quotation of East China PS was 10600 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with Monday. The end appliance industry entered the off-season, affected by chip shortage, the output decreased, and the shipping cost increased, leading to the decline of export.

EPS market, as of Friday (July 16), the main ex factory quotation of EPS in East China was 10800.00 yuan / ton, which was flat from Monday. The overall EPS operating rate increased, and terminal demand was still weak.

In the ABS market, the main ex factory quotation of ABS Zhejiang was 17950.00 yuan / ton as of Friday (July 16), up 150 yuan / ton, or 0.84% from 17800 yuan / ton on Monday. This week, the ABS start rate has risen, Jilin Petrochemical has restarted 580000 tons / year, Liaotong chemical industry has stopped for 35 days on July 14, 200thousand tons / year, but the terminal demand is still in the off season.

3、 Future outlook

Opec+ still has the intention of increasing production, and the crude oil may be callback at a high level. The cost end will affect the cost support point of styrene due to the output of the second phase of Sinopec and the strong weak basic surface of pure benzene next week. In terms of supply, the project will restart, Huajin Park in North China, and some of the major units in East China will resume after a short cut off. Next week, the overall start-up and supply of styrene will increase. While the three downstream of the demand end are still maintaining the current situation, the possibility of increasing demand is not very likely, and the factory is mostly contract oriented, and the spot purchase atmosphere is still not optimistic. Styrene or shocks are expected to fall next week.

This week, the lead market (7.5-7.9) rose and then fell. The average price of domestic market was 15866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 15741.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly drop of 0.79%.

On July 10, the lead commodity index was 95.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.51% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 28.37% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In the first half of the week, affected by the decline of LME lead inventory, Lunzhou lead mainly went up. In the second half of the week, the US dollar index rebounded and Lunzhou lead went down. Overall, LME’s lead inventory fell by 9950 tons this week. Shanghai lead rose first and then fell this week, rising to 16000 yuan / ton and then fell under pressure.

This week, the spot lead market trend close to Shanghai lead trend, the overall high after falling. Affected by the tight supply of upstream lead concentrate, the overall improvement of operation rate is limited. The downstream battery consumption is still weak, the overall consumption is low, and the lead ingot inventory is on the high side.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 27th week of 2021 (7.5-7.9), there were 16 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector that rose month on month, of which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three commodities were praseodymium neodymium oxide (8.54%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (8.20%) and neodymium oxide (6.17%). There were 5 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products were titanium concentrate (- 2.29%), silver (- 2.02%) and aluminum (- 1.26%). This week, the average rise or fall was 1.61%, and most of the nonferrous metal market prices rose.

The business association predicted that the downstream procurement is mainly on demand, and the price of lead ingot will still fluctuate when the consumption side has not improved.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell slightly this week, with the market at 7804 yuan / T at the beginning of the week, and the average weekend price of 7796 yuan / T, or 0.1%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, the propylene market this week showed no temperature and no fire, the price change was not large, and the price of individual manufacturers was adjusted slightly. By the end of the week, the mainstream domestic market quotation was 7700-7800 yuan / ton, the low-end price was 7200 yuan / ton, and the downstream was purchased on demand. The market investment was still available and the price was strong.

The risk of oil supply side is prominent this week and the price has fallen sharply. It was supported by the commercial crude oil inventory data released by the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Thursday, and the price rebounded. The crude oil price fell 2.95% this week, which has a great impact on the propene’s profit and air.

This week, PP prices were slightly lower, and consumption was low due to the influence of traditional demand off-season, with a decline of 0.97% in the week.

Acrylic acid prices continued to rise this week. Due to the overhaul of some enterprises, the spot supply was tight, downstream on demand procurement, the market trading and investment rhythm was active, and the price rose steadily. The increase was 2.59% in the week, which supported propylene.

Epichlorohydrin prices rose this week, with a 4.05% increase in the week as part of the decoration and maintenance was stopped and repaired, and the supply reduction supported the market.

In a word, the downstream of propylene shows signs of recovery, and the favorable demand side supports the propylene market to a certain extent.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts from chemical branch of business society think: long short game, uncertainty of crude oil market, pay close attention to the future market changes. If the cost side does not fluctuate significantly, and the downstream demand supports, propylene is expected to fluctuate upward in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the week was about 995 yuan / ton, and that at the end of the week was about 965 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 3.02% and a year-on-year increase of 66.24%. On July 4, the steam coal commodity index was 117.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.02% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19), and up 162.80% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

In terms of origin: after the end of July 1, the production capacity of limited coal enterprises has been gradually restored, the coal inventory has risen, and the prices of some coal mines have declined. However, considering the impact of environmental protection inspection, some coal mine production capacity has not been fully released.

Downstream power plants: due to the impact of summer peak, the daily consumption of power plants is high, and the coal inventory of power plants remains low. Data show that as of June 25, the daily consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces was 1.91 million tons, and the available days of coal storage was 13.5 days, at a low level. The power plant still needs to replenish the storage. However, there are not many port resources available for sale, and most terminals hold a wait-and-see attitude. Affected by policies, port prices are declining.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on June 24, the national coal price rose steadily in mid June. The specific price changes of various kinds of coal are as follows: the price of ordinary mixed coal (mixed coal of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal, with calorific value of 4500 kcal) is 709 yuan / ton, up 10.9 yuan / ton or 1.6% over the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dahua (better quality blended coal with calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 799 yuan / ton, up 10.9 yuan / ton or 1.4% over the previous period. In addition, in mid June, the national price of coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2626.8 yuan / ton, down 15.1 yuan / ton, or 0.6%, compared with the previous period..

Business analysts believe: origin: after the end of “July 1″, the production capacity of limited coal enterprises has been restored, coal inventory has risen, and some coal mine prices have fallen. However, considering the impact of environmental protection inspection, some coal mine production capacity has not been fully released. Due to the impact of summer peak, the daily consumption of the power plant is high, and the coal inventory of the power plant remains low. The power plant still needs to replenish the storage. However, there are not many port resources available for sale, and most terminals hold a wait-and-see attitude. Affected by policies, port prices are declining. On the whole, the short-term steam coal price is mainly weak in the later period, and the specific situation is the demand of the downstream market.