Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in late July, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market stabilized first and then slightly decreased. On the 21st, the market reported around 14214 yuan/ton, and on the 28th, it reported around 14185 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.2%. In the context of stable prices of raw materials such as acrylonitrile and acrylic acid, stable costs of polyacrylamide, normal operation of enterprises in the main production areas, abundant market supply, and weak downstream demand, it is difficult to find actual demand customers, and the mainstream market of polyacrylamide is stable and weak.

As shown in the figure, in the third quarter of 2023, the polyacrylamide market in China experienced a slight decline in July, which was slightly larger than the decline in June, but the overall amplitude did not exceed 1%.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the acrylonitrile market was operating smoothly in late July, with a mainstream quotation of around 8025 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials fluctuated slightly, while downstream construction prices fluctuated slightly, with limited support for acrylonitrile; The supply side slightly declined, providing weak support for the acrylonitrile market. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will experience slight fluctuations in the short term.

Raw material acrylic acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of acrylic acid remained stable at around 6250 yuan/ton in late July. Recently, the raw material propylene market has slightly increased, with some cost support. Market transactions are mainly based on demand, while downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see mentality, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market will operate steadily in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market fell in late July. As of July 28th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 3816 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.61% from the average price of 4086 yuan/ton on July 21st. Recently, due to market inventory depletion and poor demand during the off-season, there are currently no positive factors supporting liquefied natural gas. It is expected that domestic prices will be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the bidding results of raw gas.

Future Market Forecast: The prices of raw materials will remain stable this decade, while the fuel market will weaken and the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials will be weak. Under the current economic situation, the industry is generally prosperous, with normal production of enterprises in the main production areas, sufficient market supply, and low downstream demand, resulting in average market transactions. Regarding the future market, analysis suggests that polyacrylamide will continue its stable and weak trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong fluctuated and rose in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1076.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1140.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.88%. The current price has decreased by 5.53% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

In July, the market price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that formaldehyde has been mainly fluctuating and declining in the past three months, and the market has rebounded this month. As of July 27th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1020-1220 yuan/ton. In July, the raw material methanol market fluctuated and rose, with formaldehyde manufacturers operating normally. The demand for downstream panel factories mainly remained in demand, and the formaldehyde market transactions were average. Formaldehyde mainly rose with fluctuations in raw materials.

Upstream methanol situation: In July, the domestic methanol market fluctuated and rose, and the recovery of multiple production units in the northwest region was delayed. The supply increase was less than expected, and multiple positive factors such as a good macro outlook were combined. The market mentality quickly improved, and prices rose strongly. The market mentality quickly improved, and prices rose strongly. Large MTOs in Zhejiang are actively inquiring about US dollar supply, and market demand is expected to improve. The atmosphere has been boosted, and the domestic methanol market atmosphere has significantly increased, with prices continuing to rise.

Recently, the methanol market has been mainly fluctuating and rising, with good cost support. However, downstream sheet metal factories are in the off-season of the industry and have limited purchasing capacity. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly increase slightly in the near future.

Product name: Titanium dioxide powder

Latest price on July 26th: 15700 yuan/ton

Analysis point: On July 26th, the domestic titanium dioxide market price rose. Overall, the situation of foreign trade orders is good, the domestic terminal market is recovering, downstream demand for titanium dioxide is improving, and market trading sentiment is active. Recently, dragon companies have taken the lead in raising prices, while other companies have gradually followed suit, boosting current market confidence. Spot prices are slightly tight, and titanium dioxide prices have been raised.

Prediction: In the short term, the titanium dioxide market will operate steadily and upward.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of July 25, the price of Lithium iron phosphate, a premium power product, was 94500 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the same period last week. At present, the mainstream price is around 94000 yuan/ton. Customers of the main supply contract will not accept new orders.

This week, Lithium iron phosphate is mainly stable. The price at the beginning of the week is 95000 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price is about 94000 yuan/ton. Downstream Lithium carbonate is replenished on demand. Upstream Lithium iron phosphate is stable and strong, and the cost side of Lithium carbonate is certain support. In the short term, lithium iron phosphate will maintain its early trend. The manufacturer’s supply is only for old customers, and new customers will not take orders.

Chemical Commodity Index: On July 24th, the chemical index stood at 828 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 40.86% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 38.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Analysts of Lithium iron phosphate from the business agency believe that the Lithium iron phosphate market will operate stably, moderately and strongly in the short term.

List of ethylene glycol prices

According to data from Business News Agency, on July 24th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.24% compared to the beginning of the month. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 3950-4125 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4050 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 3900 yuan/ton for external execution; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4150 yuan/ton.

On July 21st, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 478 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 488 US dollars/ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

On the supply side, there is an expectation of a rebound in domestic maintenance equipment in the near future, while there is an expectation of a decrease in domestic ethylene glycol supply. In terms of port inventory, as of July 24th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port was 977000 tons, which is 31400 tons from July 17th when it was 1008400 tons.

In terms of demand: Currently, there is little change in downstream polyester load, maintaining a high start-up rate of over 90%. The limited impact of terminal weaving is limited, and the initial construction will be maintained.

Short term ethylene glycol prices gradually enter the platform oscillation zone

At the end of June, coal and ethylene prices bottomed out and rebounded. The news of Iran’s installation drove up methanol prices, supporting ethylene glycol prices to some extent on the cost side. At present, the cost support of ethylene glycol has been strengthened compared to the previous period. Although coal prices have started to loosen recently, the cost support for ethylene glycol is still stronger than in the previous period.

On the supply and demand side, there is a seasonal decline in operating rates and a short-term improvement in the supply and demand structure.

The cost side and supply side still have strong support for ethylene glycol in the short term. Ethylene glycol has been in a negative profit price range for a long time, and there is significant supply pressure in the medium to long term. However, there are signs of loosening in the cost side recently, and it is expected that short-term ethylene glycol prices will gradually enter the platform oscillation zone.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in mid July, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China slightly increased and then fluctuated and decreased. On the 11th, the market reported around 14257 yuan/ton, and on the 20th, it reported around 14214 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.3% in the past ten days. The prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have remained stable and slightly decreased in the middle of the month. Polyacrylamide enterprises are operating normally, with sufficient supply of goods in the market, and downstream demand is still average. The mainstream market of polyacrylamide is relatively weak.

As shown in the figure, in the early third quarter of 2023, China’s polyacrylamide market remained stable with a slight decline, which was amplified compared to the decline in June.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of acrylonitrile in mid July dropped from 8137 yuan/ton to 8025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38%. The raw material propylene market in Shandong has experienced a fluctuating trend due to the impact of news and demand, with a first up and then down trend, and a narrow consolidation of the cost side; Multiple downstream industries of acrylonitrile face weak demand support in the short term, which is difficult to improve; At present, the supply side pressure has slightly eased, and the demand side is supported, but it is difficult to significantly strengthen. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the acrylic acid market slightly declined in mid July, from 6325 yuan/ton to 6250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.19%. Recently, the raw material propylene market has been fluctuating, with unstable cost support, low production capacity utilization, and average demand. Procurement is the main demand, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market will operate in a narrow range in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market in mid July fell first and then rose. Among them, on the 11th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4056 yuan/ton, and on the 20th, the average price was 4148 yuan/ton, with a ten-day increase of 2.27%.

Future forecast: The prices of raw materials will remain stable and slightly decline this week, with a slight increase in the fuel market and unstable costs for polyacrylamide raw materials. Under the current industry situation, enterprise production is normal, production inventory is sufficient, and downstream demand continues to be low, resulting in poor market transactions. Regarding the future market, analysis suggests that polyacrylamide will continue to maintain a stable and slightly weak market trend in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from July 10 to July 17, 2023, the auction price of crude benzene increased from 5631.25 yuan/ton last weekend to 5938.75 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 5.46%.

Crude oil: supported by positive factors in the international oil market, on the one hand, the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) cut production, increasing supply concerns, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced new production reduction measures, and the Saudi Energy Ministry announced that it would extend the policy of an additional 1 million barrels/day production reduction in July to August; The Russian Ministry of Energy has also confirmed a reduction of 500000 barrels per day in oil exports in August, bringing the total production reduction of the OPEC+alliance to approximately 5 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 5% of global oil demand. On the other hand, the United States Department of Energy’s plan to replenish the strategic oil reserve also warmed up the oil market. On July 7, the US announced that it would purchase an additional 6 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the strategic oil reserve. The procurement plan will be carried out in October and November. Finally, the US dollar strengthened, Asian demand growth boosted international oil prices, supported by demand in the summer peak oil season, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data report on Wednesday showed a rapid decline in crude oil inventories. Multiple positive factors support the upward trend of international oil prices.

As of July 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.89 per barrel, an increase of $1.14 or 1.5%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $81.36 per barrel, an increase of $1.25 or 1.6%. Inflation in the United States has cooled beyond expectations, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has decreased, coupled with seasonal peak demand from refineries and OPEC production cuts in oil producing countries, heating up the oil market.

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 300 yuan/ton from July 10th to July 17th, 2023, with a current implementation of 6600 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7100 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6600 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6853 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7000 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6600 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On July 10th, the price of pure benzene was 6378 yuan/ton, and on Friday (July 14th), the price of pure benzene was 6396 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% compared to last week and a decrease of 29.77% compared to the same period last year

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has risen by 4.78% this week.

In terms of industrial chain, both international crude oil and styrene markets strengthened during the cycle, driving the pure benzene market with a 4.78% increase during the week. Sinopec has raised the listing price of pure benzene twice in a row to 6600 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 400 yuan/ton, once again boosting the market mentality of the industrial chain, and the prices of industrial chain commodities have generally increased.

During this cycle, the auction price of crude benzene has collectively strengthened, with prices ranging from 6010 to 6015 yuan/ton in Shandong region, an increase of 330 yuan/ton. The Shanxi region implemented a price increase of RMB 5850-5910 per ton, with an increase of RMB 250-260 per ton, resulting in a narrowing of the price difference in the main domestic production areas. In terms of supply, the operating rate of coking enterprises this week is still around 75%, and the supply of crude benzene has not changed much compared to the previous period, with supply slightly tight. In terms of demand, recent hydrogenation benzene enterprises have slightly reduced their operations, and demand has slightly declined. The price of hydrogenation benzene in the main production areas was between 6400 and 6450 yuan/ton during the week, with an increase of 200 to 250 yuan/ton. The demand for crude benzene is still acceptable. Overall, the strengthening of crude oil and styrene has driven the market mentality of the industrial chain, and the overall strength of the industrial chain this week. There is still an upward expectation in the future industrial chain, and it is expected that the market will remain stable with a strong trend, with little room for growth.

Acetic anhydride prices have risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 14th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5187.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.53% compared to the price of 4962.50 yuan/ton on July 7th last weekend; The price of acetic anhydride increased by 3.75% compared to 5000 yuan/ton on July 1st. The price of raw material acetic acid has increased, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, some acetic anhydride manufacturers have shut down or reduced production, the supply of acetic anhydride has decreased, and the price of acetic anhydride has fluctuated and increased.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and rose this week

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of July 14th, the price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.18% compared to the price of 2966.67 yuan/ton on July 7th last weekend; The price of acetic acid increased by 9.25% compared to 2883.33 yuan/ton on July 1st. Some acetic acid enterprises have unplanned parking, resulting in a decrease in acetic acid supply and stable demand. The price of acetic acid has significantly increased, and the cost of acetic anhydride has increased. The driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride in the future is increasing.

Future prospects

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of the Business Society, in terms of cost, some acetic acid companies have unplanned parking, while the demand side is stable, resulting in an overall upward trend in the acetic acid market; In terms of construction, some acetic anhydride manufacturers have shut down or reduced production, resulting in a decrease in acetic anhydride supply. However, downstream construction is temporarily stable, and demand is stable, increasing the upward momentum of acetic anhydride. Overall, as the cost of acetic anhydride increases and the supply decreases, it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of July 13th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14625.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices remained stable and maintained the previous trend, with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream purchases were mainly for immediate needs.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable. The purchasing atmosphere is cold and the downstream demand is average. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. The factory has given up profits and taken orders, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The enterprise quotation is Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 14500 yuan/ton.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On July 12th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 654 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 38.30% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 23.86% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 11th, the DBP price was 8887.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14% compared to the price of 8787.50 yuan/ton on July 1st. The price of raw materials fluctuated and increased, and the cost of plasticizer DBP increased. This week, the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol was 9600 yuan/ton on July 11th, an increase of 2.67% compared to 9350 yuan/ton on July 1st. In July, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, the cost of plasticizer products increased, and the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 11th, the price of n-butanol was 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.51% compared to the price of 7316.67 yuan/ton on July 1st. In July, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and increased, with sufficient supply and weak demand for n-butanol. The cost of plasticizers increased, and the upward momentum of DBP increased. In the future, the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in July, the prices of isooctanol and n-butanol fluctuated and increased, leading to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DBP products and an increase in DBP’s upward momentum. Overall, the supply of raw materials such as isooctanol and n-butanol is sufficient, DBP costs are rising, and demand for plasticizers is weak. It is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.