The monitoring showed that on March 30, Shanghai Rubber rebounded, closing at 13585 yuan / ton, up about 220 yuan / ton compared with the 29th, and the spot price was adjusted with the market; The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 13070 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.4% over the previous trading day and a year-on-year decrease of 3.99%.

Key points of analysis: supply side: Recently, the natural rubber supply side is normal. It is reported that the production shutdown period in Southeast Asia is about to pass and usher in a new round of rubber cutting period. The cutting in China’s Yunnan production area is gradually increasing. The cutting in Hainan production area is expected to start in mid April. It is expected that the overall rubber production will increase significantly after mid and late April, and the overall supply pressure will increase in the future, but the impact of the market on the expected increase in production has been gradually digested. Demand side: Recently, the whole country has been widely affected by the epidemic. The epidemic peak of tire enterprises in Shandong has passed, and the operating rate of tire enterprises in the main production areas has gradually rebounded; However, due to the complex economic situation and the shortage of chips, the automotive industry continues to be depressed, but the demand for new energy vehicles is improving, and the demand for natural rubber is bound to be promoted. In major domestic circulation places, such as Shanghai, the circulation of raw materials and automobile consumption demand have been greatly affected. Many rubber distribution and demand enterprises have shut down, the shipment and circulation of natural rubber raw materials have been blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products has also increased. Inventory: it is reported that the current rubber inventory in Qingdao is low month on month. The inventory elimination of rubber in Qingdao has begun. The domestic inventory is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume, and the arrival volume of natural rubber is reduced. Import and export: customs statistics show that from January to February, China’s natural rubber imports totaled 998700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.88%, of which 574000 tons were imported in January, a year-on-year increase of 8.25%; In February, 424700 tons were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 33.98%. The reasons for the year-on-year increase in import volume are: on the one hand, the shipping market was sluggish in the second half of last year, and some shipping dates were delayed to arrive in January; On the other hand, the replacement indicators of last year were not completed as scheduled, and some of them were moved to this year.

Future forecast: at present, the logistics transfer of local goods in circulation, such as Shanghai, which is greatly affected by the epidemic, is blocked, and the demand is suppressed to a certain extent; It is expected that the short-term natural rubber market will maintain a volatile trend. In the near future, we will focus on the increase of production in the production area and the impact of the epidemic.

The monitoring showed that on March 29, Shanghai Jiaotong continued to suffer weak shocks, closing at 13360 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of about 50 yuan / ton compared with that on March 28, and the spot price was adjusted with the market; The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12890 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.19% compared with the previous trading day and a year-on-year decrease of 5.31%.

Key points of analysis: supply side: Recently, the natural rubber supply side is normal, Southeast Asia has stopped production, and the cutting in China’s Yunnan production area is gradually increasing. Hainan production area is expected to start cutting in mid April. Demand side: Recently, the whole country has been widely affected by the epidemic. Tire enterprises in Shandong have stopped limiting production in the early stage of epidemic prevention and control. As the peak of the epidemic in several places has passed, the operating rate of tire enterprises in the main production areas has gradually picked up. However, due to the complexity of the current economic situation, the problem of chip shortage has not been solved for a long time, and the automotive industry continues to be depressed. On the other hand, the increase in cost pressure caused by high oil prices leads to the rise in the demand for electric vehicles. Under this influence, the demand for natural rubber is bound to be boosted in the future; In the short term, although the epidemic situation in the main tire producing areas in Shandong has improved, the circulation of raw materials and automobile consumption demand in major domestic circulation places, such as Shanghai, have been greatly affected. Many rubber distribution and demand enterprises have stopped work, the shipment and circulation of natural rubber raw materials have been blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire products has also increased. Inventory: it is reported that the current rubber inventory in Qingdao is low month on month. The inventory elimination of rubber in Qingdao has begun. The domestic inventory is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume, and the arrival volume of natural rubber is reduced. Import and export: the data show that in January 2022, China’s tire export volume was 591700 tons, up 4.03% month on month and 9.89% year-on-year. In February, China’s tire export volume was 414600 tons, down 29.94% month on month and 5.91% year-on-year. At present, domestic tire export orders are relatively stable. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s cumulative output of synthetic rubber from January to February was 1.162 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%.

Future forecast: macroscopically, the impact of economic inflation and geopolitical conflict will continue, and crude oil will remain high. At present, the circulation cost of domestic raw materials has increased, the transportation is more difficult, the delivery of finished products is more difficult, and the demand is suppressed. It is expected that the short-term natural rubber market will continue to be weak and volatile, and the recent focus will be on the impact of the epidemic.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (March 28): 2983.00 yuan / ton

On March 28, the comprehensive price of domestic urea fell slightly, down 27 yuan / ton compared with the price on March 25, down 0.90%, and up 39.83% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas are adjusted at a high level, and the cost support is general. From the perspective of demand: strong agricultural demand and normal industrial demand. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. However, affected by the epidemic, urea shipment is blocked and freight rates rise sharply. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately. In terms of supply, the urea plant in Shanxi resumed production, the urea supply increased, and the daily output returned to more than 160000 tons. At the same time, many departments have taken measures to ensure the orderly release of agricultural materials supply and light storage sources, and the policy of ensuring supply and stable price remains unchanged. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand increases, the supply of urea increases, and the aftermarket urea fluctuates mainly in a narrow range.

In the future, it is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong may fluctuate slightly, and the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 2970 yuan / ton.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price first slightly corrected and then rose sharply this week. As of March 25, the spot nickel price was 264250 yuan / ton, up 20.06% from 220100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 115.16% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price has increased by 8, fell by 3 and leveled by 1. Recently, the nickel price has been strong.

Nickel industry chain

At about 18:00 on March 23 in Beijing, lunni hit the daily limit. After the resumption of trading, nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange fell continuously, and hit the increase limit on the first trading day. Affected by this, Shanghai nickel also followed the limit. LME suspended nickel trading on March 8 after nickel prices soared more than 50 per cent to more than $100000 per ton. The exchange resumed nickel trading on March 16, but nickel has triggered a limit every trading day since then. At present, the trading price of LME nickel has dropped to a level equivalent to that of Shanghai Futures Exchange.

On March 22, the London Metal Exchange said that it had no plan to restrict the circulation of non-ferrous metals produced in Russia in the LME trading system. However, some industrial chain enterprises are still worried that purchasing non-ferrous metals made in Russia will face the risk of sanctions by western countries, resulting in a small actual purchase of Russian nickel. At present, the nickel market as a whole is in low inventory and tight supply. The Western sanctions against Russia do not involve the field of non-ferrous metals. It is not ruled out that the subsequent Russian nickel will resume normal supply and may deliver physical goods to effectively supplement the market supply. At that time, there will be strong pressure on the nickel price.

To sum up: the epidemic control interferes with transportation, resulting in continuous tension in supply, rebound in irrational price fluctuations, poor market trading activity, and further rise of nickel spot price with nickel futures price. At present, the disorderly fluctuation of LME nickel price has also caused serious problems to the industrial chain, and the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is more serious. Although the stock of goods increases with it, it also faces the risk of unrealization, which also shows that the current nickel price is difficult to be recognized by the industrial chain. The risk of overseas position squeeze remains unresolved, and the trend of nickel price is still uncertain.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of March 18, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 4933.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with Monday’s price, increased by 6.86% compared with February 18, and increased by 16.54% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market was stable. Recently, the main raw material methanol market has fallen, the cost support has weakened, the upstream caustic soda consolidation operation, the price of liquid ammonia and sulfuric acid have increased, the supply and demand support is OK, the logistics and transportation in some regions are limited, and the focus of market negotiation is stable.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda was adjusted and operated on March 17, and the mainstream market price in Shandong was about 900-1050 yuan / ton; Upstream liquid ammonia, on March 17, Shandong liquid ammonia market continued to rise, and today’s price was about 100 yuan higher than yesterday; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose on March 17; Upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of business society, from March 11 to 18, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises fell from 3145 yuan / ton to 2787 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 11.37%, the price rose by 7.83% month on month and 18.49% year-on-year.

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that the price of methanol, the main raw material, has fallen recently, the cost support is weak, the downstream procurement is mainly on demand, and the logistics and transportation are limited in some regions. It is expected that the formic acid market may be stable in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of March 23, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 6200.00 yuan / ton, up 25.68% from last Friday, 34.30% from February 23, and 44.19% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been strong and rising. Cost: the price of methanol, the main raw material, has risen, and the cost support has strengthened. Supply side: temporary maintenance of a large enterprise, shrinking market supply. The demand for formic acid in the downstream market increased, and the demand for formic acid in the downstream market increased.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda improved on March 22, and the mainstream market price in Shandong is about 930-1080 yuan / ton; Upstream liquid ammonia, on March 23, Shandong liquid ammonia market was running at a high level, with the rise mainly slowing down; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose on March 23; For upstream methanol, the ex factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong increased on March 23.

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that in the near future, the price of raw materials is relatively strong, the cost support is higher, the supply side is reduced, the demand side is positive, and the logistics and transportation in some regions are limited. It is expected that the formic acid market may be strong in the short term.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong rose on March 22. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1382.50 yuan / ton on March 21. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1432.50 yuan / ton on March 22, up 3.62%. The current price rose 12.21% month on month, and the current price rose 8.80% year-on-year.

The formaldehyde market has risen recently. As of March 22, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1400-1550 yuan / ton. Recently, the raw material methanol market began to rise, the cost support was good, and the purchasing sentiment of the downstream plate factory was OK. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the recent rise in the price of formaldehyde in Shandong would be the main trend.

Recently, the market of raw material methanol has risen, and the downstream demand is general. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society expects that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly rise slightly.

Price trend of metallic magnesium

Market analysis this week

This week, magnesium ingots were weak first and then stable. On Wednesday, the price fell below the 40000 yuan mark. From the perspective of quotation, the attitude of magnesium manufacturers to stabilize the price is relatively firm, and it is difficult to find low-cost goods. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of the 18th, the transaction price of magnesium ingot Market was concentrated at 39000 yuan / ton – 40000 yuan / ton. Considering the continuous game between market supply and demand, at present, the magnesium price has not fallen again.

Raw materials

This week, the fourth round of increase in coke market fell to the ground. This round of increase was 200 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of 800 yuan / ton. At present, the operating rate of coking enterprises has increased to a certain extent, but the overall operating rate is still low. At present, the coke inventory in the plant is generally low. Affected by the difficulty of automobile transportation, the overall coke supply is still tight. With the increase of coke price, the production cost of magnesium plant has been increased.

The price of ferrosilicon is temporarily stable. The quotation of 72 ferrosilicon is 9000-9200 yuan / ton (Natural Block), and the average market price is 9050 yuan / ton. The blue carbon market has been weak recently, but on the whole, the cost support of magnesium ingot is strong.

Downstream aspect

In addition, the overseas purchase price is generally low, and the overall impact of the epidemic is small, although the transaction cost is small, the overall impact is small. However, in terms of macro news, the meeting of the Ministry of industry and information technology required to further expand the consumption of large industrial products such as new energy vehicles and smart appliances and expand green consumption. Magnesium alloy as a lightweight material, the rise of new energy vehicles has driven a major turning point in lightweight, boosted the confidence of magnesium ingot merchants to a certain extent, and benefited the price in the medium and long term.

Future forecast

On the whole, although the factory side is willing to stabilize the price, the purchasing capacity of the consumer side is insufficient, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. The current situation of weak operation of magnesium ingot price is difficult to change. However, the capital pressure of magnesium factory is not large, and the price of magnesium ingot is high superimposed on ferrosilicon and coal. The probability of magnesium ingot price protection is high. Business society analysts believe that the price of magnesium ingot will operate stably in the short term.

Ethylene oxide remained stable this week. At present, the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 8200 yuan / ton, and that in Central China is 8400 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the energy value of crude oil is weak, and the ethylene price fell slightly this week. So far, the latest external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is US $1300 / ton, that in Southeast Asia is US $1300 / ton, that of Luxi Chemical ethylene is 8800 yuan / ton, and that of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene is 9100 yuan / ton.

The contradiction between supply and demand in the short-term ethylene oxide market has not been alleviated. Although affected by the epidemic, the manufacturers switched to ethylene glycol and the supply of ethylene oxide was tightened, the downstream synchronization was weak and the supply and demand were weak.

This week, the price of downstream monomer manufacturers was mainly stable, the logistics was blocked, and the demand was sluggish. Under the continuous constraints, it was difficult to improve in the short term.

Forecast: ethylene oxide has high cost, low supply and demand and no profit. It will take time to break the ice.

From March 10 to March 17, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China rose. The price was 81250 yuan / ton last weekend and 82750 yuan / ton this weekend, up 1.85% a week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As shown in the figure above, the price of antimony ingots continued to rise after the Spring Festival, and the increase gradually expanded.

The price of antimony ingots continued to rise this week. The market was affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the market mentality tended to be tense. Driven by this mentality, the sellers’ reluctance to sell became stronger and stronger, and the market trading was more active, which further boosted the sellers’ mentality of raising prices. There has also been some demand release in the downstream recently. Due to the high price, the purchase mentality is affected. At present, it is mainly just on-demand purchase. The overall transaction of the market is acceptable, and it is still based on demand. The external price is also mainly upward this week. At present, the European Strategic small metal antimony ingot (99.65%) has risen to US $15000 / ton, an increase of US $350 / ton compared with last week. Under the overall strong market mentality, it is expected that the market price will continue to maintain a stable, medium and strong trend.