First, the price trend
According to the data monitoring of the business community, the cobalt market fluctuated in August, and the cobalt price fell in the shock. As of August 31, the price of cobalt was 48,6875.00 yuan / ton, compared with 498,166.66 yuan / ton of cobalt at the beginning of the month, the price of cobalt rose by 2.27%, up 13.53% over the same period last year.
Second, the market analysis
In August, the average price of domestic and international metal cobalt market fell. The price of cobalt sheet (content ≥99.8%) of Wuxi Stainless Steel Trading Center fell. As of August 31, the price of cobalt was 466,000-496,000 yuan/ton, compared with the price of 485000-518000 yuan/ton at the beginning of August, and the price dropped by 20,000 yuan/ton. The spot cobalt offer in the London LEM market fell from $66,750-672,050/ton at the beginning of August to $64,000-$64,500/ton at the end of August, and the cobalt price fell by $2,750/ton in August. Overall, the price of cobalt in the market fluctuated and fell in August. Both domestic and international cobalt prices fell, and the price of cobalt was weak. However, compared with the previous period, the decline in August has decreased. The cobalt price tends to be stable.
According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were completed 90,000 and 84,000 respectively, an increase of 53.6% and 47.7% over the same period of the previous year. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 504,000 and 496,000, respectively, an increase of 85% and 97.1% over the same period of the previous year. The output of new energy vehicles in July increased compared with that in June, but the sales volume was basically maintained. The performance of new energy vehicles is still strong, but the growth rate has slowed down compared with the previous period. The slowdown in the growth rate of new energy vehicles has caused the market to lower the demand for cobalt and affect the rise in cobalt prices.
Policies and regulations
The Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Transport issued the Notice on the Preferential Policies for the Promotion of Vehicle and Vessel Taxes for Energy-Saving New Energy Vehicles and Vessels (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”), which proposes that the new energy vehicles and vessels are exempt from vehicle and vessel tax. . The exemption of the vehicle and vessel tax has promoted the accelerated development of new energy vehicles and ships, and has played a certain role in promoting the demand for cobalt in the market. The policy is difficult to change the weakness of the supply and demand fundamentals, and the cobalt price has not shown signs of rebounding.
Third, the outlook outlook
In August, the cobalt market fluctuated and adjusted, it was difficult to change the downward trend of cobalt prices, but the overall decline in cobalt prices in August was slower than the previous period. Baijiaxin, a data analyst of the business community, believes that the national policy was favorable in August, and the new energy vehicles and ships were exempted from the vehicle and vessel tax, which objectively promoted the demand and rise of the cobalt market, ensured the stability of the cobalt price, and the growth rate of new energy vehicles must be To a certain extent, the demand for cobalt is maintained, and metallic cobalt performs well at the demand side. However, affected by the Sino-US trade war, the growth of the macroeconomic environment slowed down, and the economic slowdown affected the automobile industry. The new energy automobile industry dragged down the growth, which indirectly affected the demand of the cobalt market and limited the strength and speed of the rebound of cobalt prices. The city has not shown signs of a rebound. It is predicted that the price of cobalt in the market will fluctuate and adjust, and the price of cobalt will still fall in the short term. However, with the steady development of new energy vehicles, the risk of Congo’s gold supply side has increased. It is difficult to have a large room for decline in cobalt prices in the near future.