In the 20th week of 2026 (May 18-22), the commodity market showed a differentiated downward trend. According to data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen raw material lists of Shengyi Society, a total of 94 commodities experienced a month on month price decline this week, accounting for 53.41%; Only 38 products showed a month on month increase, accounting for 21.59%, with an average weekly increase or decrease of -0.8%, indicating significant pressure on the overall market.

1、 Price increase chart: Chemical products lead the way, with small varieties showing outstanding price increases

This week’s rising products are concentrated in the chemical sector (18 types) and non-ferrous sector (8 types), with all varieties experiencing a growth rate of over 5% coming from the chemical industry. The overall growth rate is relatively mild, with only 3 varieties experiencing a growth rate of over 4%.

Top three varieties in terms of price increase (led by chemical industry)

Formic acid (+8.33%): At the beginning of the week, the quoted price was 2400 yuan/ton, which rose to 2600 yuan/ton over the weekend, making it the variety with the highest weekly increase.
Phosphoric acid (+7.18%): 9050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 9700 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a year-on-year increase of 43.92%, with strong demand support.
Liquid ammonia (+4.61%): 2240 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 2343.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a slight increase in prices supported by the demand for chemical raw materials.

Other popular rising varieties

Nonferrous sectors: Silver (+1.94%), Tin (+1.53%), and Aluminum (+1.25%) saw slight increases, with Silver experiencing a year-on-year increase of 127.53%, highlighting the resilience of precious metals.
Rubber and building materials: PP (brushed) (+1.55%) and corrugated paper (+1.29%) are steadily increasing, and the marginal recovery of downstream demand provides support.
Energy and Agriculture: Fuel oil (+0.83%) and rapeseed oil (+1.12%) saw a slight increase with limited fluctuations.
2、 Decline List: Chemicals suffer heavy losses, with multiple varieties experiencing a decline of over 5%

This week, the falling commodities were concentrated in the chemical sector (40 types) and non-ferrous sector (13 types), with 7 types experiencing a decline of more than 5%. Chemical products led the decline significantly, with some varieties experiencing a decline of more than 10%, spreading pessimistic sentiment in the market.

Top three varieties in terms of decline (chemical disaster areas)

Melamine (-11.35%): At the beginning of the week, it was 6937.5 yuan/ton, and over the weekend it fell to 6150 yuan/ton, making it the variety with the largest decline throughout the week. The supply-demand imbalance dragged down prices significantly.
Hydrogen peroxide (-8.87%): 826.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 753.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Downstream demand in the chemical industry is weak, and prices continue to weaken.
Ethylene oxide (-7.32%): 8200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 7600 yuan/ton over the weekend, insufficient terminal orders, and increased pressure on the industry to reduce inventory.

Other popular falling varieties

Chemical raw materials: lithium carbonate battery grade (-5.79%), PTA (-5.33%), urea (-1.66%) collectively fell, among which lithium carbonate still rose 183.53% year-on-year, and the short-term correction does not change the long-term logic.
Black series: rebar (-1.19%), hot-rolled coil (-1.10%), iron ore (Australia) (-2.05%) have slightly declined, and weak real estate demand has suppressed the trend of steel prices.
Nonferrous rare earths: neodymium oxide (-6.10%), praseodymium oxide (-6.13%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-4.49%) continue to weaken, leading to loose supply and demand in the rare earth market and downward pressure on prices.

3、 Panoramic performance of sectors: significant differentiation in chemical industry, decent resilience in non-ferrous metals, and fluctuations in energy, agricultural and sideline industries

1. Chemical sector: ups and downs are differentiated, with both leading and falling concentrated

The chemical industry sector is the core fluctuation area this week, with 18 types of gains and 40 types of losses, showing significant differentiation characteristics. The rising end is mainly composed of basic chemicals such as formic acid, phosphoric acid, and liquid ammonia, benefiting from the support of raw material costs and the recovery of local demand; On the downside, midstream chemicals such as melamine, hydrogen peroxide, and ethylene oxide are at the core, coupled with oversupply and weak demand, resulting in a significant drop in prices.

2. Nonferrous sector: more gains and less losses, differentiation between precious metals and industrial metals

Eight types of non-ferrous metals rose and thirteen types fell, with overall resilience better than that of the chemical industry. Precious metals (silver+1.94%) performed outstandingly, with a significant year-on-year increase, supported by their safe haven nature and capital inflows; Industrial metals (aluminum+1.25%, copper+0.28%) saw a slight increase, with low global inventories supporting prices. However, varieties such as lithium carbonate and rare earths fell due to loose supply and demand, resulting in significant internal differentiation within the sector.

3. Energy and Black Sector: Minor fluctuations, dominated by weak demand

The energy sector (fuel oil+0.83%, liquefied natural gas -1.54%) experienced narrow fluctuations, with international oil price fluctuations transmitted to the domestic market. Coupled with stable domestic demand, price fluctuations were limited. The black series (rebar -1.19%, iron ore -2.05%) continues to be weak, and the recovery of real estate infrastructure demand is not as expected. The slow destocking of steel has put downward pressure on prices.

4. Agricultural and textile sectors: minor fluctuations, with supply and demand balance as the main focus

The agricultural and sideline sectors (rapeseed oil+1.12%, eggs -1.08%) experienced narrow fluctuations, while oil and oilseeds saw a slight upward trend due to international market transmission. Eggs entered the off-season of consumption and prices fell. The textile sector (polyester staple fiber -1.54%, PTA-5.33%) is overall weak, with insufficient terminal textile orders and a decline in chemical raw materials, dragging down prices in the textile industry chain.

4、 Market outlook: Short term pressure continues, focus on demand recovery and cost changes

This week, the overall commodity market is under pressure, with chemical products leading the decline and most sectors falling. The core driving factors are weak downstream demand, oversupply of some varieties, and the spread of pessimistic market sentiment. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate weakly, and three core variables need to be focused on:

On the demand side: the recovery of real estate infrastructure, the recovery of chemical and textile terminal orders. If the demand margin recovers, it is expected to support the stabilization of prices for some varieties;
Cost side: Fluctuations in international oil prices, coal and other energy prices will directly affect the costs of the chemical and energy sectors, which will then be transmitted to terminal prices;
Supply and demand pattern: The progress of chemical destocking, whether the loose supply of non-ferrous rare earths has eased, and changes in supply and demand balance will determine the price trend of varieties.

Overall, in the short term, the commodity market is unlikely to change its pattern of differentiation and oscillation. The chemical sector remains the core fluctuation area, and we need to be vigilant about the opportunities for oversold rebound of some high decline varieties, while avoiding the downside risks of sustained loose supply and demand varieties.

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From May 8th to 15th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port prices rose from 3111 yuan/ton to around 3137 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.83% during the cycle, a maximum amplitude of 1.90%, a month on month decrease of 6.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 22.95%. The domestic methanol market is mainly running weakly. Although there are still a large number of mainland sources to supplement, the amount of foreign arrivals is low, and the export volume is high. The methanol inventory at ports has significantly decreased, which provides some support for the market. However, the downstream demand is in the off-season, and the market purchasing power is poor, which has dragged the market down and caused price fluctuations and downward movements.

Thiourea

As of the close on May 15th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2609, opened at 2850 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2935 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2850 yuan/ton. It closed at 2907 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, an increase of 23 yuan or 0.80% compared to the settlement of the previous trading day. The trading volume is 779879, the position is 693841, and the daily increase is 17227.
On the cost side, coal has basically maintained a balance between production and sales, with cautious and conservative terminal procurement, and strong prices providing support for methanol. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, from the downstream perspective, the market price of acetic acid continues to decline, the formaldehyde market is consolidating horizontally, and the dimethyl ether market is running steadily. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the overall device loss exceeds the recovery amount, resulting in a decrease in production and a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 14th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at 632-634 US dollars per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 161-163 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 526-528 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
In the future, it is predicted that the domestic methanol market will repeatedly play a game between cost support, supply contraction, and weak demand in the near future. Overall, the methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.

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According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall domestic market for maleic anhydride declined in April. As of April 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 7862.50 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 8.04% from 8550.00 yuan/ton on April 1st.
Supply side: In April, the supply of maleic anhydride in the market showed a characteristic of “high in the beginning and low in the end”, with some units maintaining high load operation in the first ten days, and the market supply of goods was relatively sufficient; Starting from mid month, due to the rapid decline in prices and profit inversion, coupled with the continuous increase in volume of goods from Northeast China and the clear advantage of arrival, the high price transaction volume in various regions has been limited, and the industry’s production reduction and maintenance plans have increased. The operating load rate of n-butane maleic anhydride plants has gradually fallen, and the market supply of goods has shrunk. At the end of the month, due to the slowdown of liquid anhydride shipments by manufacturers and the suspension of shipments in Northeast China before the holiday, the sentiment of downstream demand entering the market to replenish inventory before the holiday may rise, pushing up the market for maleic anhydride. As of April 30th, the factory price of solid anhydride in the maleic anhydride market in Shandong is around 7800 yuan/ton, while the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 7500 yuan/ton.
Upstream: After a brief surge in the n-butane market in the early stages of April, the downward trend continued throughout the second half of the year due to factors such as insufficient downstream chemical demand, off-season civilian gas consumption, and weak market confidence. The price center of gravity significantly shifted downwards, and the overall market was in a weak operating pattern. In April, Saudi CP prices rose to $800 per ton.
Downstream: In April, the operating rate of the unsaturated resin market in the downstream core area of maleic anhydride remained low, and downstream enterprises mostly produced according to orders. The procurement of maleic anhydride mainly followed up on urgent needs, and there was insufficient willingness to purchase in bulk. At the same time, downstream industries are under pressure in terms of profits, and the acceptance of high prices for maleic anhydride continues to decline. The market’s new orders are sluggish, forming a pattern of “strong supply and weak demand”, directly suppressing the price trend of maleic anhydride.
Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that with the addition of new parking devices in May, market supply will decrease; The continuous rise in crude oil prices may provide some support for the cost side of maleic anhydride; The operating rate of the downstream unsaturated resin market is still at a low level, and it is difficult for terminal demand to substantially recover, resulting in insufficient support for the price of maleic anhydride. It is expected that the market for maleic anhydride in May may fluctuate within a weak range.

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The overall polyethylene market in April showed a weak and fluctuating pattern of “rising and falling, and weak recovery at the end of the month”. According to the data from Shengyishe Spot News, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8716 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 8425 yuan/ton on April 29th, a decrease of 3.35%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11483 yuan/ton on April 1st and 11350 yuan/ton on April 29th, a decrease of 1.16%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on April 1st was 10212 yuan/ton, and on April 29th it was 10082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27%.

Thiourea

Supply side: Tighten first and then loosen, gradually releasing pressure. Early October: Partial device maintenance/load reduction, low social inventory, strong willingness of traders to raise prices, and temporary tight supply. In the second half of the year, with the concentrated resumption of early maintenance equipment and the release of new production capacity, coupled with an increase in the amount of imported goods arriving at the port, the market supply pressure has significantly increased, which has continued to suppress prices. At the end of the month, some devices entered maintenance again, coupled with the low prices in the early stage suppressing the production enthusiasm of some enterprises, the supply pressure slightly eased, supporting a slight rebound in prices.
Demand side: Overall weak. Downstream industries such as plastic weaving, agricultural film, and packaging have weak order follow-up, and the operating rate of enterprises remains low. Procurement is mainly based on on-demand use and procurement, lacking large-scale stocking power. Although the low prices at the end of the month have stimulated some essential demand replenishment, they have not formed a sustained increase in demand, and overall it is still difficult to effectively drive prices.
Cost aspect: In the first half of the year, international crude oil prices fluctuated upwards, providing strong cost support for the market and driving up prices. In the second half of the year, crude oil experienced a pullback due to macroeconomic concerns and inventory data, leading to loose cost support and weak supply and demand, accelerating the decline in PE prices. At the end of the month, crude oil rebounded slightly, and the cost side showed marginal recovery, driving PE prices to recover at a low level.
Short term: There are still expectations of resuming production on the supply side, and there is no significant increase on the demand side. The fluctuation of crude oil on the cost side remains the core variable, and prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern.

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