According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall domestic market for maleic anhydride declined in April. As of April 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 7862.50 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 8.04% from 8550.00 yuan/ton on April 1st.
Supply side: In April, the supply of maleic anhydride in the market showed a characteristic of “high in the beginning and low in the end”, with some units maintaining high load operation in the first ten days, and the market supply of goods was relatively sufficient; Starting from mid month, due to the rapid decline in prices and profit inversion, coupled with the continuous increase in volume of goods from Northeast China and the clear advantage of arrival, the high price transaction volume in various regions has been limited, and the industry’s production reduction and maintenance plans have increased. The operating load rate of n-butane maleic anhydride plants has gradually fallen, and the market supply of goods has shrunk. At the end of the month, due to the slowdown of liquid anhydride shipments by manufacturers and the suspension of shipments in Northeast China before the holiday, the sentiment of downstream demand entering the market to replenish inventory before the holiday may rise, pushing up the market for maleic anhydride. As of April 30th, the factory price of solid anhydride in the maleic anhydride market in Shandong is around 7800 yuan/ton, while the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 7500 yuan/ton.
Upstream: After a brief surge in the n-butane market in the early stages of April, the downward trend continued throughout the second half of the year due to factors such as insufficient downstream chemical demand, off-season civilian gas consumption, and weak market confidence. The price center of gravity significantly shifted downwards, and the overall market was in a weak operating pattern. In April, Saudi CP prices rose to $800 per ton.
Downstream: In April, the operating rate of the unsaturated resin market in the downstream core area of maleic anhydride remained low, and downstream enterprises mostly produced according to orders. The procurement of maleic anhydride mainly followed up on urgent needs, and there was insufficient willingness to purchase in bulk. At the same time, downstream industries are under pressure in terms of profits, and the acceptance of high prices for maleic anhydride continues to decline. The market’s new orders are sluggish, forming a pattern of “strong supply and weak demand”, directly suppressing the price trend of maleic anhydride.
Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that with the addition of new parking devices in May, market supply will decrease; The continuous rise in crude oil prices may provide some support for the cost side of maleic anhydride; The operating rate of the downstream unsaturated resin market is still at a low level, and it is difficult for terminal demand to substantially recover, resulting in insufficient support for the price of maleic anhydride. It is expected that the market for maleic anhydride in May may fluctuate within a weak range.

The overall polyethylene market in April showed a weak and fluctuating pattern of “rising and falling, and weak recovery at the end of the month”. According to the data from Shengyishe Spot News, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8716 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 8425 yuan/ton on April 29th, a decrease of 3.35%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11483 yuan/ton on April 1st and 11350 yuan/ton on April 29th, a decrease of 1.16%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on April 1st was 10212 yuan/ton, and on April 29th it was 10082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27%.

Supply side: Tighten first and then loosen, gradually releasing pressure. Early October: Partial device maintenance/load reduction, low social inventory, strong willingness of traders to raise prices, and temporary tight supply. In the second half of the year, with the concentrated resumption of early maintenance equipment and the release of new production capacity, coupled with an increase in the amount of imported goods arriving at the port, the market supply pressure has significantly increased, which has continued to suppress prices. At the end of the month, some devices entered maintenance again, coupled with the low prices in the early stage suppressing the production enthusiasm of some enterprises, the supply pressure slightly eased, supporting a slight rebound in prices.
Demand side: Overall weak. Downstream industries such as plastic weaving, agricultural film, and packaging have weak order follow-up, and the operating rate of enterprises remains low. Procurement is mainly based on on-demand use and procurement, lacking large-scale stocking power. Although the low prices at the end of the month have stimulated some essential demand replenishment, they have not formed a sustained increase in demand, and overall it is still difficult to effectively drive prices.
Cost aspect: In the first half of the year, international crude oil prices fluctuated upwards, providing strong cost support for the market and driving up prices. In the second half of the year, crude oil experienced a pullback due to macroeconomic concerns and inventory data, leading to loose cost support and weak supply and demand, accelerating the decline in PE prices. At the end of the month, crude oil rebounded slightly, and the cost side showed marginal recovery, driving PE prices to recover at a low level.
Short term: There are still expectations of resuming production on the supply side, and there is no significant increase on the demand side. The fluctuation of crude oil on the cost side remains the core variable, and prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern.