As of February 28th, according to the price data from Shengyi Society, the mainstream average spot price of polyester bottle chips in East China is 6322 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend
Overall: First fell, then rebounded, and weakened again at the end of the month; The monthly average price is 6230 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 1.27%.
phase division
At the beginning of the month (2.1-2.5): Rapid downward trend. After the holiday, raw materials rebounded, cost support weakened, and futures fluctuated downward; Spot price increased from 6324 to 6068 yuan/ton (2.2 yuan/day, down 256 yuan).
Mid month (2.6-2.23): Shockingly rebounded, raw material PTA/MEG strengthened, and costs rose; Futures rebounded and spot prices gradually recovered to the range of 6100-6270 yuan/ton.
At the end of the month (2.24-2.27), the futures rose 136 yuan to 6266 yuan/ton due to the expansion of rising, falling, and weakening; Subsequently, crude oil weakened and downstream resumption of work fell short of expectations, causing spot prices to fall from 6330-6450 yuan/ton.
2、 Core market analysis
1. Cost side (dominant factor)
Crude oil under pressure: OPEC’s expected increase in production and falling oil prices directly suppress PTA/MEG.
• Weakening of raw materials: PTA/MEG prices have declined, bottle chip cost support has weakened, and factory profits have shrunk.
Transmission pathway: crude oil → PX → PTA/MEG → bottle flakes, with significant downward transmission of short-term costs.
2. Supply side
• Operating rate: Approximately 66% per month, with some equipment undergoing maintenance (such as CR Jiangyin and Sanfangxiang), resulting in tight supply.
• Inventory: Low factory inventory provides limited support for prices.
New production capacity: The growth rate will slow down in 2026 (about 6.25%), and the supply and demand will tighten in the medium term.
3. Demand side (maximum drag)
Slow resumption of work: The resumption rate of downstream industries such as soft drinks and edible oils is only 50% -60%, lower than the same period in previous years.
• Prudent procurement: Downstream focus on digesting pre holiday inventory, with few new orders and only replenishing inventory for essential small orders.
• Low production and sales: The production and sales of 2.27 bottle tablets are only 30% (far below the 70% profit and loss line), and the factory is under great pressure to ship.
Peak season expectation: Traditional peak season in mid to late March, but there is no clear order signal in the short term.
4. Futures and market sentiment
Futures led the decline in spot prices, with a weaker basis and a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
The price difference of the quotation has widened (50-100 yuan/ton), and transactions are mostly low-priced goods.
3、 Market forecast (early March)
Trend judgment: Weakly oscillating consolidation, difficult to have a significant rebound.
• Core focus:
Crude oil and PTA/MEG price trends
◦ Downstream resumption progress (after Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) or at the inflection point)
Production and sales of bottle tablets and inventory turnover speed
• Risk points: Continuous decline in crude oil, downstream resumption of work less than expected, further weakening of futures.