According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market fell narrowly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2,160 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, it was 2134 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 1.20%, 25.30% compared with the same period last year.
II. Market Analysis
Products: The domestic methanol market is mainly volatile this week, with slight adjustment in terms of local supply and demand, which is limited to 50 yuan/ton. Among them, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and other places rose 20-30 yuan/ton; Ports rose and fell steadily, Jiangsu was stable, Zhejiang and other places slightly declined. Nanjing Chengzhi Phase II newly built 600,000 tons methanol to olefin unit was commissioned at the end of June, and the load of the unit is not high at present. Social stocks of ports in eastern and southern China continued to rise. As of Wednesday, total stocks in the two ports totaled 841,900 tons, up 42,500 tons annually.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: This week formaldehyde Market narrow finishing operation. Affected by the adjustment of methanol price in some areas, some formaldehyde enterprises have raised their offer, others have temporarily stabilized their offer, the market has been kept at a low level, the overall shipment is not smooth, and the inventory of enterprises is still under control, but there is still some pressure. The downstream market demand is weak, and the overall turnover is general. Longzhong Information believes that the current upstream market volatility, the formaldehyde market has not yet affected, weak demand, formaldehyde market is expected to remain weak next week, consolidation and operation, there are sporadic adjustments. Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market has been regionalized this week. The start-up of vinyl acetate production enterprises in the lower reaches of Northwest China has been reduced, which has resulted in the continuous accumulation of the stock of mainstream acetic acid production enterprises in the region. The local transportation costs are higher, the vehicles are limited, and the outflow of goods from northwest China is less, which aggravates the situation of excess supply in the market. The production enterprises are forced to gradually lower their quotations. Dimethyl ether: This week, dimethyl ether shows a trend of regionalization, with different declines and rises.
3. Future Market Forecast
Business Cooperatives: On the positive side, the risk of war from Iran to China has increased, and the cost of shipping has increased; the MTO plant in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia is currently in full capacity production, and methanol has been purchased; the MTO trial production in Chengzhi, Nanjing, at the end of June; and the MTO in Luxi, Shandong, is expected to test run in July. On the negative side, Shenhua Yulin MTO plant is expected to be overhauled in July for 20 days; new methanol plant in China is being constructed in an orderly way, including Yankuang Yulin 700,000 tons planned to be put into operation in October; Inner Mongolia Rongxin is expected to put into operation in September; affected by safety, environmental protection inspection and other factors, local market terminal enterprises stop, affecting methanol consumption; China’s methanol imports will remain near 800,000 tons in January. At present, the fundamentals of methanol supply and demand are still weak, especially the high import volume of ports and abundant domestic supply, which increase the pressure on the market; demand is difficult to improve in a short time; methanol analysts of business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will continue to weaken the probability of shocks.