1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average price of PS brand 525 at the beginning of March was 9433 yuan/ton, while the average price of PS brand 525 at the end of the month was 9350 yuan/ton, with a price decrease of 0.88%, down 12.75% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In March, the price of the PS market rose and fell alternately, with overall volatility and downward trend.

On the cost side, the strong performance of pure benzene combined with the tight balance of styrene fundamentals may drive the strong finishing of styrene. On the supply side, the overall supply of domestic PS is relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of petrochemical plants is expected to be high, while the pressure on the PS supply side remains. Demand side: Due to limited downstream demand improvement, the supply and demand side gradually tends to be loose, and the overall market inquiry atmosphere is general, while the on-site trading atmosphere is flat.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

The industry’s capacity utilization rate has increased, and the market is cautious about high-priced goods, with a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the short-term domestic PS market may be dominated by a volatile consolidation trend.

According to monitoring by the Business Agency, the domestic BDO market continued to decline in March. From March 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic BDO fell from 13816 yuan/ton to 10820 yuan/ton, with the price falling 21.69% during the cycle and 60.32% year-on-year.

At the beginning of this month, the main production enterprises Xinjiang Xinye and Guotai Xinhua Devices were successively restarted, with a large increase in supply side, and there was a negative situation at the BDO supply level. In the middle of June, factory bidding was on the high side, and production enterprises were in the market. However, due to the sluggish follow-up of terminal demand, most downstream industries are under pressure on costs, with weak purchasing intentions for raw materials and serious price pressures. The decrease in supply cannot offset the sluggish demand, and the market focus continues to decline. Near the end of the month, terminal demand remained sluggish, dragging down the market in most downstream industries. With poor cost transmission, enthusiasm for raw material procurement was not high, and prices were severely depressed. The BDO market continued to decline, with traders generally offering lower prices.

In terms of cost, raw calcium carbide: On March 29, the benchmark price of calcium carbide for the business community was 3116.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -10.53% compared to the beginning of this month (3483.33 yuan/ton). In terms of methanol, on March 29, the benchmark price of methanol for the business community was 2540.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -7.41% compared to the beginning of this month (2743.33 yuan/ton). Recently, the market prices of calcium carbide and methanol have been operating at low levels, and the cost of BDO is worrying.

On the demand side, the PTMEG-spandex industry chain has started at a high level, but terminal demand is weak, inhibiting procurement enthusiasm. The capacity utilization rate of the PBT industry has declined, and the digestion of raw materials has decreased; The PU slurry and TPU industries in the polyurethane field have started construction around 5-60%, maintaining just needed orders. The short-term BDO demand side is short.

In the future, it is predicted that some early maintenance devices will be restarted, and the domestic BDO market supply will increase. However, there is no good expectation for the downstream demand of the terminal, and the contradiction between supply and demand continues. BDO analysts from the Business Agency predict that the domestic BDO market may still decline.

In March, the domestic propane market continued its downward trend and stabilized at the end of the month. According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, the average market price of propane in Shandong was 6107 yuan/ton on March 1, and 5173 yuan/ton on March 27. The monthly decline was 15.3%, down 25.71% compared to the same period last year.

As of March 27, the mainstream prices of propane in various regions in China are as follows:

Region/ March 27th

South China region/ 5350-5450 yuan/ton

North China/ 5100-5250 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5100-5250 yuan/ton

Northeast China/ 5050-5150 yuan/ton

In March, the decline in the domestic propane market increased, and the market had a strong bearish mentality. At the beginning of the month, the market continued its weak trend at the end of February. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, market prices follow the market, and upstream destocking is the main trend. As the price of crude oil fell to a low level in the future, international external market prices continued to decline, and downstream demand continued to decline. As a result, upstream shipments were not smooth, and prices were significantly lowered several times. In late March, as propane prices fell to a low level and downstream bargains entered the market, trading volume increased, with some markets experiencing a slight increase and market atmosphere rebounded.

Saudi Aramco introduced CP in March 2023, with propane at $720 per ton, a decrease of $70 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $740/ton, down $50/ton from last month.

Overall, the current propane market price is still higher than the external market price, so the momentum for propane to continue to rebound is limited. It is expected that in the short term in April, the propane market will mainly consolidate and operate.

In March, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong fell. At the beginning of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5387.50 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5325.00 yuan/ton, down 1.16%, down 7.66% year-on-year.

Upstream methanol situation: In March, the domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly, and the overall coal market was temporarily stable in terms of cost. As the “peak season winter” draws to a close, the inventory of terminal power plants is steadily cashing in under the long-term agreement, and the power plants maintain the procurement of coal in the just needed market. The cost of methanol is mixed. Demand side, downstream acetic acid: Sinopec Great Wall expected maintenance, acetic acid demand may decrease; Downstream dimethyl ether: Yima Kaixiang plans to stop for 20 days on March 26, with demand for dimethyl ether decreasing; Downstream chloride: Shandong Dongyue is expected to stop for maintenance, and Luxi Chemical is expected to have a reduced load, resulting in a decrease in chloride demand. The methanol demand side is temporarily negative.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has mainly experienced a narrow decline, with poor cost support, and weak market transactions. Polyformaldehyde analysts from the business agency predict that the price may decline slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 22, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7633 yuan/ton. Compared to March 1 (the reference price of n-butanol was 7033 yuan/ton), the price increased by 600 yuan/ton, or 2.79%.

As can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency, since March (3.1-3.24), the domestic butanol market in Shandong Province has seen an overall upward movement. At the beginning of this month, the downstream market of n-butanol ushered in a centralized replenishment, with a boost in the demand side boosting the steady upward trend of the n-butanol market. After the staged inventory of the downstream, the n-butanol market recovered to calm, and the market experienced a slight decline. As of March 10, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was based on 7166 yuan/ton, with a 1.90% increase in the previous ten days. In the middle and late March, as the weather continues to warm, the downstream demand for n-butanol continues to gradually release. The supply side of n-butanol is tightening, and the pressure on the supply side is relatively small. Supported by both supply and demand, the downstream demand of the n-butanol market gradually releases, and the overall improvement of the downstream demand side supports the upward trend of the n-butanol market. As of March 24, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province is referred to around 7600-7700 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

Currently, the n-butanol on-site trading atmosphere is good. With the temperature rising, the downstream construction of the terminal has been boosted, and the operators have a good mentality. The n-butanol data analyst from the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province is expected to be strong, and the operation is mainly adjusted. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to data monitored by the Business News Agency, at the beginning of the week, Shanxi’s industrial grade first class potassium nitrate was reported at 5940 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week, Shanxi’s industrial grade first class potassium nitrate was reported at 5900 yuan/ton, down 0.67% and up 0.43% month on month. The current price has dropped 16.31% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market has fluctuated and declined this week. As can be seen from the above figure, the recent potassium nitrate market has fluctuated slightly, and the market has declined this week. Domestic potassium manufacturers have sufficient supply, with a significant increase in supply from border trade sources and a decrease in prices. The potassium nitrate market was poorly traded, with prices falling. According to statistics from the Business News Agency, mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers have quoted 5600-5900 yuan/ton this week (for reference only). The prices vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the quotations of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fallen: currently, 62% of white potassium in border trade is 3350-3500 yuan/ton, with high spot prices. Yingkou Port quoted a price of 3650-3700 yuan/ton for 62% white potassium, Zhanjiang Port quoted a price of 3600-3650 yuan/ton for 62% white potassium, and Fangcheng Port quoted a price of 3600-3650 yuan/ton for 62% white potassium.

The domestic potash fertilizer market has seen a further decline in prices, with general cost support, and downstream purchases that are just needed. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (The above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate throughout the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts from the business community. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation.).

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region decreased slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3483.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3466.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week. A year-on-year decrease of 23.53% compared to the same period last year. The calcium carbide commodity index on March 19 was 90.83, unchanged from yesterday, down 57.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26), and up 63.69% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weaker downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region decreased slightly this week.

The upstream blue charcoal market slightly declined, while the downstream PVC market slightly declined. At the end of this week, the price of Shenmulan charcoal medium material was around 1230-1350 yuan/ton, down about 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week, and cost support weakened. The PVC market price fell from 6225.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 62166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.94%. A year-on-year decrease of 30.87% compared to the same period last year. The PVC market price fluctuated slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement decreased. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Aftermarket or fluctuating decline of calcium carbide

In late March, the calcium carbide market was mainly subject to narrow fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal has decreased slightly, and cost support is insufficient. The downstream PVC market has experienced a slight fluctuation and decline, and downstream demand has weakened. In late March, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall in a narrow range, mainly through consolidation.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol decreased slightly this week. This week, the average price of neopentyl glycol in the mainstream domestic market fell from 10866.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10600.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.45%. Compared to the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 41.11%. On March 19, the neopentyl glycol commodity index stood at 51.08, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.70% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 18.65% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market rose from 7266.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7333.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.92%. Compared to the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 40.05%. The upstream raw material market price has slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future prospects

In late March, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has an upward trend over the weekend, with increased cost support. The downstream paint market is generally stable, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst from the Business Agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market is mainly affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the market price may fluctuate slightly.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been shaken and sorted out, with overall price changes being narrow. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 17, the average ex-factory price of domestic POM was 14300 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.23% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: Recently, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has fluctuated and consolidated. As can be seen from the figure below, the recent market of formaldehyde has mainly fluctuated slightly, and this week’s market has not fluctuated much. The price of raw material methanol has stabilized, with general cost support, weak market trading sentiment, weak demand from downstream plate factories, stable shipments from formaldehyde manufacturers, and volatile market consolidation.

On the supply side: Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has been reduced in a narrow range from a high level, and the industry load has decreased by about 3%. Currently, it is about 91%. The inventory situation of the enterprise is stable, the inventory position is not high, and the processing profit has steadily increased.

Demand: In terms of demand, the enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to stock goods has weakened, and the demand release situation is general, with limited impact on the promotion of spot prices. At present, the mentality of traders on the market has turned weaker, with a bias towards single talk and the existence of allowing them to take orders.

Aftermarket Forecast

This week, the POM market was weak and volatile. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants is high, and the inventory pressure is acceptable. At the same time, the price of imported materials is low, and domestic materials continue to be under pressure. Demand side enterprises just need to replenish less, some downstream operating rates are low, and actual transactions are weak. It is expected that the market may decline in the short term.

According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the beginning of this week was 3950 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the end of this week was 3933 yuan/ton, down 0.42%.

The domestic potassium sulfate market is weak, and some regions are also affected by the continuous downward trend of potassium chloride price. However, due to the continuous small amount of arrival of potassium chloride from various regions of the source of potassium sulfate from SDIC, some downstream factories have supplemented the purchase of potassium sulfate from Mannheim, so the manufacturers have successively concluded orders, but most of them are small orders, which support the current market price of potassium sulfate. The ex-factory price of 52% of domestic Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly 3900-4000 yuan/ton, and the price of granular potassium sulfate is mostly 4000-4050 yuan/ton in the northeast market. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. The degree of the by-product hydrochloric acid hanging upside down in different regions is different, and some Mannheim potassium sulfate plants are still in a loss state.

At present, the main downstream compound fertilizer plants in China are generally in good condition, but most of them are based on order production in the early stage, and the production of high-nitrogen fertilizer in summer will be carried out in succession. The demand for raw materials of potash fertilizer is relatively limited, and under the current situation, the purchase of manufacturers is mainly based on demand.

Forecast: The domestic potash fertilizer market lacks positive support, and it is expected that the market will be in a weak consolidation state.