1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the spot market price of PVC fell in October. On October 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5986 yuan/ton, while on October 30th, the average price was 5854 yuan/ton. The price fell by 2.21% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

The spot market price of PVC fell in October. After the National Day holiday in early this month, futures prices opened at a low price, and the futures market weakened slightly. The market confidence in the two markets was significantly insufficient, and PVC spot prices were lowered. In the middle of the year, the upstream calcium carbide market prices significantly declined, and the futures market weakened more. The trading atmosphere on the market was weak, and people were cautious and cautious. The PVC spot market lacked confidence, and prices were lowered. In the latter half of the year, there has been a rebound in both markets, with a slight increase in spot market prices. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm is generally average, with purchases mainly on demand and ready to use. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5700-5870 yuan/ton.

On October 27th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $85.54 per barrel, an increase of $2.33 or 2.8%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 89.20 yuan/barrel, an increase of 2.15 US dollars or 2.5%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased in October, with the price of calcium carbide dropping from 2966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2916.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.69%. Looking at the future market: In mid to early November, the calcium carbide market may slightly decline, with consolidation being the main focus. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC and 1,4-butanediol markets have fluctuated and fallen, leading to a weakening of downstream demand. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in mid to early November, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell in October, with average cost support. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average, and actual transactions are limited, with most enterprises mainly focusing on stability and wait-and-see. It is expected that the PVC market may continue to fluctuate within the range in the short term, and closely monitor changes in the news.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, overall yellow phosphorus market prices rose in October. On October 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 25522.67 yuan/ton, and on October 27th, it was 25960 yuan/ton. During the month, the price increased by 1.71%.

2、 Market analysis

Overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus increased in October. In the first ten days of October, the overall market turnover of yellow phosphorus was fairly good. The price of upstream phosphate rock rose, the cost support was awesome, and the market price was temporarily stabilized. In the middle of the year, the yellow phosphorus market fell first and then rose, with an overall upward trend. There are many downstream inquiries, making it difficult to purchase at a lower price, with manufacturers mainly pushing prices. In the latter half of the year, the market price of yellow phosphorus slightly decreased, and downstream demand was poor. The market pressed down on procurement, and the focus of price transactions gradually shifted downwards. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is around 26000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring by Business Society, on October 27th, the market price of 30 grade phosphate ore once again exceeded the thousand yuan mark, with a reference price of around 1024 yuan/ton. Compared to early October, the monthly increase was 5.57%. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphorus ore market is mild, and the supply side will continue to provide some support to the market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly continue to operate at a high and strong level, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the market price of coke was temporarily stable in October 2023. On October 27th, the ex factory price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi region was 2196.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as at the beginning of the month. In terms of supply, the shutdown plan for the 4.3 meter coke oven in Shanxi region has begun to be implemented, affecting the operation of local coke enterprises. The regional supply of coke is tight, and the overall operating rate has slightly declined this week. In terms of demand, the recent poor performance of finished product prices has led to a slight decline in steel plant operations. Some enterprises may have maintenance plans and maintain a just needed replenishment of coke. Some enterprises with high inventory in the factory have started to control coke procurement, leading to a weaker mentality among coke companies and a weakening market mentality. Overall, the supply and demand in the coke market are weak, and the mentality of coke companies is expected to weaken. The market is expected to remain temporarily stable in the short term.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the reference price of phosphoric acid on October 1st was 7140 yuan/ton, and the average price on October 27th was 7220 yuan/ton. The price increased by 1.12% during the month. This month, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fluctuated and increased, with acceptable support for raw materials, leading to an increase in the price of thermal phosphoric acid. However, downstream demand is weak, and some dealers have not made any adjustments for shipment, resulting in limited growth in phosphoric acid. With the improvement of the yellow phosphorus market, it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will consolidate and operate.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the market price of yellow phosphorus increased in October. At present, the market trading situation is average, and the market is purchasing at a low price. However, the upstream phosphate rock price has increased, and the raw materials are under pressure. The willingness of yellow phosphorus manufacturers to increase prices is also strong, and there is a game between upstream and downstream, with many businesses watching and waiting. Overall, it is expected that the price range of yellow phosphorus market will fluctuate and operate in the short term, and the actual transaction will be negotiated.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde slightly decreased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 8833.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8566.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.02%, and the weekend price increased by 26.60% year-on-year. On October 22, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 43.49, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 58.81% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 44.39% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly decreased this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell this week. The price increased from 7133.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7143.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.14%, and the weekend price decreased by 3.82% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market has a downward trend in prices, with average cost support. However, due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 10400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10600.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.92%. The weekend price has increased by 4.95% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, which has a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late October may be mainly fluctuating and declining. Although the downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. However, there is a downward trend in the upstream propylene market, with insufficient cost support. Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

In the recent period (10.13-10.20), the dichloromethane market has risen first and then declined overall. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 20th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.15% from 2960 yuan/ton on the 13th, and the highest point in the cycle was 3030 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol has weakened slightly, the price of liquid chlorine has remained stable overall, and the cost support for dichloromethane has weakened slightly; The domestic production of methane chloride is around 780%, and the inventory pressure of enterprises has accumulated slightly. The factory price of dichloromethane was raised in the early stage due to maintenance news, and the demand was weak in the later stage. As of October 20th, the factory price of mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region was around 2750-2900 yuan/ton.

Recently (10.13-10.20), there has been a slight fluctuation in domestic methane chloride production, with some low load operating units experiencing increased load in the early stages. Some enterprises have shut down their units for maintenance, and the overall production rate is around 7.8%.

Recently (10.13-10.20), the raw material methanol has slightly declined, the price of liquid chlorine has stabilized, and the cost support for dichloromethane has slightly weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 20th, the spot price of methanol was 2455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from 2480 yuan/ton on the 13th. As of October 20th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has remained around 400 yuan/ton.

The domestic production of methane chloride is around 7.8%, and in some regions, the inventory pressure of enterprises is relatively high. In addition, there are fewer downstream inquiries, and merchants mainly focus on clearing inventory, resulting in a small shipment volume of enterprises. The price of dichloromethane is weak and declining.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst of Business Society, the inventory pressure of dichloromethane enterprises has increased, coupled with a slight decrease in raw material prices and weak cost support, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak in the short term.

The focus of the domestic acetone market has increased, with discussions in the East China market reaching between 7350 and 7450 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the national acetone market was trading at 7375 yuan/ton on October 12th, and on October 16th, the market was trading at 7538 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.2%.

The supply side is tightening. Port inventory has declined, with Jiangyin port inventory dropping to 12500 tons on the 16th (25000 tons in Hengyang and 10000 tons in West China), a decrease of 2000 tons compared to the beginning of last week. The operating rate of domestic units has declined, and the 400000 ton/year phenol ketone unit of Sinopec Mitsui will be shut down for maintenance on October 15th, with an estimated 4-5 days. Some factories in East China have also experienced negative operations, and the market’s spot circulation has tightened, which has boosted the mentality of traders. The opening of the week pushed up prices.

Rising raw materials and cost support. Affected by the significant upward trend of crude oil closing, the spot market for pure benzene in East China has increased by 7920 to 7980 yuan/ton. The weekend’s surge in crude oil has provided strong support for pure benzene, with downstream styrene following the trend, stimulating downstream users to purchase in the market and also driving the acetone market up.

From a downstream perspective, MIBK has remained stable for a long time, with poor intra market trading and a weak decline in bisphenol A. At the beginning of the week, there were multiple rounds of intra market auctions, and the final trading volume decreased compared to last week. The overall impact on the market was average, with the negotiated price in the East China region dropping to 10050-10300 yuan/ton.

The upstream of the industrial chain has increased, and the short-term supply has tightened. Acetone has rapidly increased, but downstream products still show a sluggish trend. On the 17th, the factory price of Lihua Yiweiyuan Chemical Acetone products was increased by 200 yuan per ton at the opening. It is expected that acetone in East China will stabilize and rise within a narrow range, with mainstream discussions ranging from 7400 to 7500 yuan/ton.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has been operating in a weak and volatile manner, with a significant drop in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the afternoon of October 16th, the average factory price of EVA in China was 12733.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.80% compared to the previous day and 3.29% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

Since the holiday, the overall supply of ethylene in the raw material end has remained stable, and the supply of port inventory has remained stable. The cost side of petroleum brain has been strengthened due to the impact of crude oil boost, and after the holiday, some demand in Northeast Asia has been released. Currently, the ethylene market is stable without pressure;

The recent operating rate of the vinyl acetate industry has remained at a low level in the early stage, while there has been a boost from upstream crude oil in the far end. However, the trading situation of vinyl acetate is average, and the follow-up of on-site stock preparation is weak. Recently, the supply and demand game of vinyl acetate has been running, and it is expected that the market may continue to narrow down. The market for EVA raw materials is temporarily stable, with moderate support for the EVA market.

On the supply side:

Recently, the scale of domestic EVA enterprises resuming work and maintenance is relatively small, and the industry’s operating rate continues to be around 80% of the previous level. The overall high load of the enterprise continues, leading to a gradual increase in factory inventory pressure and a continuous upward trend in supply pressure. Loose factory pricing from manufacturers. The mentality of traders has weakened, following the drop in factory prices. EVA suppliers have weak support for spot goods.

In terms of demand:

The traditional EVA stocking boom in early September did not materialize, and the sluggish peak season situation did not improve after the holiday. The demand for photovoltaic film has been exhausted for a long time, and there is currently insufficient consumption. The demand for foam shoe materials has been weak for a long time, and the demand side for EVA has collapsed. Recently, companies have lagged behind in tracking their purchases, resulting in low trading volume on the market. The buyer has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and a strong resistance towards high priced sources.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA market performed negatively after the holiday. Although the raw material market is temporarily stable and the support for EVA spot is strong, weak downstream demand is dragging the market. At the same time, the industry’s load continues to be high, and supply pressure is gradually rising. On the 16th, manufacturers significantly lowered their factory prices, and traders followed suit. In the future, the overall starting position of terminal enterprises is not high, and the inventory of raw materials in the early stage still needs to be digested. The expectation of demand improvement is not strong, and it is expected that the EVA market may continue to be weak in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the industry’s supply and demand situation.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent premium product in China, was 14666.67 yuan/ton. This week, the price of PMMA showed a narrow and strong trend, with a price increase of 0.46% compared to the same period last week, with downstream procurement being the main focus.

This week, the general transparent grade premium product PMMA in China remained stable and strong, with a price increase of 0.46% compared to the same period last week. The purchasing atmosphere was average, and downstream demand was average. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains around 14666.67 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Manufacturers are willing to make concessions and take orders, while downstream demand is mainly for procurement.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On October 12, the rubber and plastic index was 683 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.57% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 29.36% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation, with a narrow range of strong operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride first rose and then fell in September. The price of potassium chloride first increased from 2950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3075.00 yuan/ton on September 12, an increase of 4.24%, and then fell to 3000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.44%. On September 27th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 96.03, an increase of 1.59 points from yesterday, a decrease of 45.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and a 64.86% increase from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have slightly decreased this month. The terminal price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is around 2700 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, 62% of the port’s white potassium was around 2850 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 150 yuan/ton. 60% of the port’s red particles were around 2950 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 50 yuan/ton. Border trade 62% of Russian white potassium was around 2800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The potassium chloride port has a storage capacity of about 3 million tons.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate rose first and then fell this month. The price first increased from 7410.00 yuan/ton on September 1 to 7610.00 yuan/ton on September 14, an increase of 2.70%, and then fell to 7550.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.79%. Overall, the market price of potassium carbonate in September increased slightly by 1.89%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 19.47% compared to the same period last year. This month, the factory price of potassium nitrate increased first and then decreased. The price first increased from 5450.00 yuan/ton on September 1 to 5600.00 yuan/ton on September 11, an increase of 2.75%, and then dropped to 5550.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.89%. Overall, the factory price of potassium nitrate in September increased by 1.83%, and the month end price decreased by 13.62% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market of potassium chloride rose first and then fell. Agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and downstream manufacturers have a general enthusiasm for purchasing potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to early October, the trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Downstream agricultural demand weakens, industrial demand is average, and potassium chloride prices may fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market prices rose first and then fell in September. After reaching a new high for the year in mid September, they slightly declined, but overall they still showed a high adjustment. As of September 28th, the average price quoted by the 1.4D * 38mm polyester staple fiber factory was 7912 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.26% compared to the beginning of the month.

The price of raw material PTA rose first and then fell. As of September 28th, the average spot market price of PTA in East China was 6213 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% compared to the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the cost side support was strong, with the price of auxiliary acetic acid rising sharply, coupled with an unexpected decrease in PTA equipment burden, and the market supply stage tightening. In addition, with the arrival of the peak season of demand for the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” and the rebound in terminal loom startup rate, PTA prices continue to strengthen under the combination of positive factors. But in the middle of the year, with the weakening of crude oil and demand, and the restart of its own equipment, PTA prices fluctuated slightly and fell back.

The downstream textile industry is still in the peak consumption season, with a mild market and a slight increase in prices for polyester yarn factories. As of September 28th, the average market price for pure polyester yarn in Shandong was 12925 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58% compared to the beginning of the month. The decline in textile and clothing exports narrowed in August. In August, textile and clothing exports reached 27.86 billion US dollars, a decrease of 10.2%, and a month on month increase of 2.8%. Among them, textile exports reached 11.69 billion US dollars, a decrease of 6.3%, and a month on month increase of 4.8%. Clothing exports reached 16.17 billion US dollars, a decrease of 12.7%, and a month on month increase of 1.3%. At present, downstream textile companies generally indicate that although there has been an improvement in small batch sales, there are still not many major aspects, and with the weakening of polyester staple fiber prices, the industry has a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

Analysts from Business Society believe that crude oil supply is still tight and support is still acceptable. However, there is a production plan for PTA’s new production capacity, with expectations of increased supply and rising inventory. And the downstream demand peak season is gradually coming to an end, and the demand side will also narrow. Overall, it is expected that the prices of polyester staple fibers will fluctuate slightly in October.