1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the price of bromine rose in October. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 42600 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 49800 yuan/ton. The price rose 16.9%, down 28.47% year on year. On October 27, the bromine commodity index was 174.74, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.73% from the highest point 245.18 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 196.57% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine price rose this month, and now the mainstream bromine price in Shandong is about 48000-53000 yuan/ton. Now the bromine manufacturers are approaching the off-season of production. The manufacturers have no inventory, so the inventory pressure is low. The main manufacturers’ offer is rising. However, there is resistance in the downstream, and the supply and demand game, the price of sporadic transactions. The purchasing enthusiasm of bromine downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry is relatively general in the near future.

In terms of raw materials, the price of sulfur rose first and then fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was about 1486.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 1350 yuan/ton. The price fell 9.19%, 36.42% lower than the same period last year. At present, the domestic sulfur market is waiting for consolidation and operation. Although the port market is strong, and the attitude of the shippers to support the market is obvious, the refinery shipments are poor, and the market demand is limited. Later, the winter storage market opens, and the sulfur demand may increase. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will consolidate and operate, with specific attention paid to the downstream follow-up.

Analysts from the business community believe that the bromine price has risen recently, and bromine enterprises intend to increase it, but the enthusiasm of bromine downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry is not very good in the near future. The supply and demand of both parties play a game, and the downstream is under pressure. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will run better, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the hydrogen peroxide market declined in October. At the beginning of this month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 920 yuan/ton. On October 27, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 863 yuan/ton, down 6.16%.

The terminal demand was flat. The hydrogen peroxide market declined in October

During the National Day holiday, hydrogen peroxide terminal printing, paper industry and other manufacturers stopped for maintenance, terminal demand turned weak, manufacturers were not confident in pricing, and they lowered the factory price one after another. The hydrogen peroxide market fell, with the mainstream quotation dropping to 890 yuan/ton, a drop of more than 2%.

After the festival, the demand for hydrogen peroxide in terminal printing, paper industry and other industries decreased, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to weaken. There is a big difference in the domestic market in major production areas. The hydrogen peroxide market in Shandong is weak, and the mainstream quotation drops to 600 yuan/ton; The market of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui Province is relatively stable, lasting 1100 yuan/ton. The domestic hydrogen peroxide market continues to be weak, led by bad news.

At the end of the month, the market of hydrogen peroxide continued to decline. The mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong Province fell to 640 yuan/ton, while the mainstream quotation in Anhui Province remained at 1100 yuan/ton. The terminal demand has not yet recovered, and hydrogen peroxide continues to be weak.

Li Bing, an hydrogen peroxide analyst from the business agency, believes that since November, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have restarted their devices, increasing market supply, and the future market will still weaken.

Overview of ethylene glycol price trend

According to the data of the business society, on October 26, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol P value was 4133.33 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from Friday and 35.16% year on year.

Glycol Fundamentals Overview

Supply side: the supply starts to increase. With the restart of early maintenance devices, the domestic ethylene glycol supply has increased.

Demand side: On October 25, the operating rate of polyester was 82.37%, a small increase compared with the previous month. The production and sales of polyester filament were 49.6% (- 0.5%).

According to the inventory data, the ethylene glycol inventory at the main port of East China on October 24 was 811000 tons, 36100 tons more than that on October 20. From October 24 to October 30, the arrival volume of East China’s main port is expected to be 208000 tons.

Import and export data:

From January to September, the cumulative import volume of ethylene glycol was 5808300 tons, down 8.13% year on year; In September, the import volume of ethylene glycol was 618400 tons, up 3.38% month on month and 2.91% year on year, and the dependence on imports decreased slightly to 61%.

From January to September, the cumulative export volume of ethylene glycol was 33500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 71.49%; Among them, the export volume of ethylene glycol in September was 1300t, down 69.62% month on month and up 50.78% year on year.

Future market forecast

In the short term, there is a strong expectation of weak supply and demand. Under the expectation of new capacity, the pressure on the supply side is significantly increased. In terms of demand, the main downstream polyester products in the traditional peak season of Jinjiuyinshi are flat, and the future market is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation. The expected price fluctuation range is 3800-4150 yuan/ton. In the future, we will wait and see the maintenance continuity of Coal Chemical and the follow-up of terminal orders.

Chart of nitric acid market price trend

According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of nitric acid was 2366 yuan/ton on October 24, and 2333 yuan/ton on October 17, up 1.43%.

During 10.17-10.24, the upstream liquid ammonia decreased by 1.82%. The downstream aniline rose 0.89%, TDI fell 1.23%, potassium nitrate fell 1.56%, and the price of ammonium nitrate was stable. The support for the cost of liquid ammonia is weak, and the rise and fall of downstream products are different. The nitric acid analysts of the business community predict that the price of nitric acid is weak and stable.

Market analysis this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of the 21st, the average price in the domestic market was 25133.33 yuan/ton. This week, the domestic magnesium metal market showed a trend of first restraining and then rising. The first half of the week was affected by weak demand, with a decline of 100-300 yuan/ton; The price rose strongly in the late week, boosted by the news that the production of charcoal was greatly reduced.

Raw materials

Influenced by the news of “Fugu Orchid Carbon Furnace Transformation Plan” on the afternoon of the 19th, the production equipment required by environmental protection will be shut down on the 25th of this month, and nearly half of the capacity will be removed. The magnesium price is up as a whole, with an increase of 500-600 yuan/ton. The market quotation is relatively chaotic, but the news has not been confirmed, and the impact on the subsequent magnesium ingot production is unknown.

The average market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 8071 yuan/ton. With the high raw material price and transportation cost, the price of ferrosilicon remains relatively high, while the coal market remains high due to the active supply and demand

Downstream

From the perspective of supply and demand, the prices of magnesium powder and magnesium alloy in the downstream have first decreased and then increased along with that of magnesium ingots. The overall demand has not changed much, the market transaction is relatively cold, and the enterprise production starts have not changed much.

Future market forecast

In general, the raw material silicon coal has provided some support for the magnesium market, but the overall weak demand still restricts the driving force of the magnesium price rise. Under the fermentation of the news of Orchid Charcoal, the short-term magnesium price mostly maintains a firm operation, but we still need to pay attention to the sustainability of the Orchid Charcoal rectification on the magnesium price recovery.

Overview of ethylene glycol price trend

According to the data of the business community, on October 21, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol P value was 4158.33 yuan/ton, down 2.35% from Friday and 41.29% year on year.

Glycol Weekly Fundamentals Overview

Supply side: the supply volume increases within a week. From the perspective of production data, the total domestic ethylene glycol production rose slightly this week, with a month on month increase of about 8000 tons and a weekly output of 262000 tons. The increase of output is mainly based on the increase of domestic ethylene glycol total capacity utilization ratio on a month on month basis. The capacity utilization ratio of integrated units is 64.16%, with a month on month increase of 2.04%; The capacity utilization rate of coal to ethylene glycol was 35.66%, up 0.95% month on month.

Demand side: the demand is relatively stable, moving down slightly. The utilization rate of polyester capacity is about 82%, and the output is close to 1.1 million tons, moving down slightly on a month on month basis.

From the inventory data, the inventory of the main port began to go out of stock slightly, and the current inventory is 847100 tons, down month on month.

Future market forecast

In the short term, there is a strong expectation of weak supply and demand. Under the expectation of new capacity, the pressure on the supply side is significantly increased. In terms of demand, the main downstream polyester products in the traditional peak season of Jinjiuyinshi are flat, and the future market is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation. The expected price fluctuation range is 3900-4150 yuan/ton. In the future, we will wait and see the maintenance continuity of Coal Chemical and the follow-up of terminal orders.

The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese rose this week (October 8 to October 14). The spot market price in East China was 16700 yuan/ton last weekend and 17050 yuan/ton this weekend, up 2.1%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly K column chart of electrolytic manganese above that since March 2022, the price of electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. After a slight rise in the end of August, the price has continued to stabilize temporarily, and since the end of September, the price has risen slightly. Manganese ore: Affected by logistics and downstream market, the demand for manganese ore dropped significantly this week, and the ore price eased slightly. Tianjin Port is obviously strict in the management of vehicles on the routes of Inner Mongolia, and the automobile transportation is generally increased by 10-20 yuan/ton. Semi carbonic acid in Tianjin Port is 35-35.5 yuan/ton, Australia is about 46.5 yuan/ton, and Gabon is about 40.5 yuan/ton. Australian mineral rights are gradually concentrated, prices remain firm, semi carbonic acid is under certain pressure, Gabon is the most willing to ship, and the overall market is weak, but the low sales situation has eased; At Qinzhou Port, the price of Australia is 46-47 yuan/ton, that of Gabon is 43-43.5 yuan/ton, and that of semi carbonic acid in South Africa is 36-36.5 yuan/ton. With the decline of silicomanganese market in southern ports, the willingness to make inquiries declines, but the port cargo rights are relatively concentrated, and there is a certain game in the price.

 This week, the price of domestic electrolytic manganese market continued the trend at the end of September and continued to rise slightly. At present, the mainstream price is around 15500-15800 yuan/ton. Enterprises have a strong price mentality, and it is difficult to find low-cost goods on the market. The overall market is bullish. In the near future, the situation of steel bidding in the steel plant is good. The quantity and price of steel bidding have rebounded to a certain extent compared with the previous period, and the market mentality has also been improved to a certain extent. It is expected that the future market price will still remain stable and strong, with a strong supply and demand game mentality.

In terms of manganese and silicon: domestic silicon and manganese fluctuated slightly, and the futures end showed a general performance. Influenced by black, except for Monday’s rise, other trading periods were in a weak downward pattern. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon and manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7150-7250 yuan/ton on September 23, with the average market price of 7225 yuan/ton, up 0.36%.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of the noon of October 18, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 10066.67 yuan/ton, 2.27% lower than that on Friday (October 14), 0.98% lower than that on September 18, and 11.85% higher than that on a two month cycle.

From the perspective of supply and demand: in the near future, the supply side devices are mainly stable, the demand side performance is flat, the downstream bearish mentality is dominant, the procurement is cautious and wait-and-see, and the low volume follow-up is dominant. The factory shipments are flat, the inventory is gradually accumulated, and the price of propylene oxide is under pressure.

From the perspective of cost: raw propylene, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has dropped significantly recently. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene on October 17 was 7436.60, a decrease of 2.41% compared with October 1 (7620.60). Recently, the cost faced with the propylene oxide market has weakened.

To sum up, in the near future, the price of propylene as raw material is weak, coupled with insufficient demand side follow-up, which has dragged down the price of propylene oxide market. At present, the cost support is average, the inventory is under pressure, and the downstream is cautious. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be weak in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

The domestic methanol market in East China fell back. Before the National Day, due to the availability of goods before the festival and the tight supply and demand in some regions, the domestic methanol market price rose sharply, and the port price broke the 3000 yuan/ton mark. With the increase of arrival and inventory in some regions, as well as the consumption of pre holiday stock in downstream areas after the holiday, the methanol price market has turned “upside down”. After the festival, the domestic methanol market continued to decline unilaterally, and the quotations of manufacturers were also lowered for many times. The market atmosphere was “calm”.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 3246 yuan/ton to 2812 yuan/ton from October 8 to 17. During the cycle, the price dropped by 13.37%, with a month on month increase of 1.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.87%.

As of the closing of October 17, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had been volatile. The MA2301 contract was opened at 2730 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2746 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2654 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2667 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, the position of the MA2301 contract was 1.1945 million hands, up 129100 hands from the previous trading day.

Summary of methanol market prices by regions as of October 17:

Region, price

Qinghai region, no quotation

Shanxi, 2720 yuan/ton

Liaoning, about 2830-2900 yuan/ton

Fujian, 2850-2880 yuan/ton

In the two lakes region, about 3150-3185 yuan/ton

Anhui Province, about 2900-2950 yuan/ton

Henan Province, about 2740-2750 yuan/ton

The price of methanol industrial chain products rose and fell, the price of natural gas, the upstream product of methanol, fell, the average price of coal continued to rise, and the cost of methanol was well supported; Shandong has the largest increase in formaldehyde price among downstream products; Among related products, Shandong’s ethylene glycol price rose the most.

In terms of external market, as of October 14, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 369.50-370.50 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton. US Gulf Methanol Market closed at 108.75-109.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 351.50-352.50 euros/ton, up 0.75 euros/ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 369.50-370.50 USD/ton, 5 USD/ton

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 108.75-109.75 cents/gallon, 0 cents/gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 351.50-352.50 euros/ton, 0.75 euros/ton

The firm coal price will continue to support the production cost of enterprises. At the same time, the supply will be further increased. Methanol analysts of the business community predict that the domestic methanol market may be dominated.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of titanium dioxide will be lowered this week. The average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 16350 yuan/ton on Friday, and 16016.67 yuan/ton on Thursday, with a 2.04% price reduction rate within the week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market was lowered this week. The domestic titanium dioxide market is generally traded, and the market will wait and see after the festival. The overall market of titanium dioxide is light, the downstream demand is poor, and the buying enthusiasm is limited. The traders are more cautious in taking the goods and wait and see. Up to now, the quotation of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 15000-17500 yuan/ton; The price of anatase titanium dioxide is about 14500 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi stopped falling and rebounded this week. At present, the construction of Panzhihua Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. is at a low level. In addition, the outsourcing of Panzhihua Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. to recycle the titanium ore in the market, the spot market of titanium ore is tight, and the price rebounds accordingly. Up to now, the price excluding tax of 38-42 grade titanium ore is about 1360-1400 yuan/ton, the price excluding tax of 46 grade 10 grade titanium ore is about 1950-2080 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 grade titanium ore is about 2300-2400 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is relatively strong, and the actual transaction price is discussed separately.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers rose this week. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market rose sharply this week, with the quotation rising from 296 yuan/ton on Friday to 406 yuan/ton on Friday, up 37.16%. The upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, the titanium dioxide market was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream customers were generally motivated to purchase sulfuric acid.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the titanium dioxide analyst of the business agency, the price of domestic titanium dioxide market will be lowered this week, and the domestic market is in general. The price of titanium concentrate as raw material rebounded, the price of sulfuric acid rose sharply, and the cost support was strong. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will stop falling and stabilize in the short term.