Monthly Archives: May 2017

Domestic MDI market calm about, cautious forward

In the January-February big … from 2 to 5 months of the fall … and then known as the Jedi fight back in May, so that players have become increasingly difficult to figure out the pace of polymerization MDI market price changes. I believe everyone on the black stock market in 2016 memories, especially in August to September domestic black material market prices rose 8400 yuan / ton. Recent domestic MDI market price increases compared with the 2016 years, there is nothing more than that.

The author in the afternoon of May 8 has been found in the black material market, the spot is not easy to find, because I continued to fall sharply due to the impact of panic mentality, and did not expect the market will rebound, it is not caused by this phenomenon Attention. The next two weeks, the domestic market price of black material into the sky soaring model, Shanghai cargo from 19500 yuan / ton up to 22,500 yuan / ton, up to 3,000 yuan / ton. In this first Congratulations to you to buy the goods friends, you in the award, and congratulations to make a fortune!

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In the past 2017 May, the feelings of the black material colleagues is difficult to calm down. Everyone in the process of grasping the black material in the process of varying degrees of Taro behavior, that is, a large number of low-cost early Paohuo, rising trend in a timely manner a large number of short covering, the price rise and not dare to purchase high prices and low-priced futures, Hearty and a small amount of catch a little goods, do not know which type you belong to.

Recalling the May 2017 black material market and 2016 in August and September 2016 and December 2017 – February 2017, three of the reasons for the rise in black material prices are different, the market behavior is different.

First, the number of imported MDI continued to shrink, the domestic market is difficult to find the spot

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March 2, 2017, South Korea Kumho Mitsui M200 transaction price of 2900 US dollars / ton in the vicinity, equivalent to 25,000 yuan / ton. Then, the domestic MDI market prices into the downward trend, until the beginning of May the domestic M200 market price fell to 19,600 yuan / ton. In other words, after December 2016, the procurement of MDI has been all the fall.

So the brutal decline in the atmosphere, leading to the import of Korean goods read was denied. At the same time, near the stage of Korea Kumho Mitsui MDI device operating rate of only five percent, just to meet their own domestic market demand, has no time to take into account the export to the Chinese market. During this period, China only a very small number of imported traders in order to maintain relations of cooperation, a small amount of imports of teeth, but also in advance of the way to reduce the loss of pre-sale expectations.

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Second, the trend of prices, although crazy, hoard goods behavior has been cautious

Although the domestic polymer MDI market conditions are always thunderbolt as the trend of rising, but the recent stage of the traders and downstream users have not so crazy. One was bitten by the snake for three years afraid of the rope ah, especially in January 2017 before the Spring Festival crazy stockpile was hurt too deep.

The essence of price increases is due to the supply of aggregated MDI suppliers, coupled with the scarcity of social stock, highlights the illusion that has just led to short supply.

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Downstream users after a number of dealers and traders after the goods, found that the market is not easy to find the spot MDI polymerization. And dealers and traders found that the recent purchase of goods downstream customers suddenly more, so have the price and reluctant to sell the phenomenon. During this period, the polymerization of MDI suppliers to extend the delivery time, and another phenomenon is not reported closed, exacerbate the status of tight supply. Now think about it, may be so much demand, contact a lot of dealers and traders, resulting in this time the market misunderstanding it. In the offer quickly pulled up and the momentum of the momentum, driven by the domestic polymerization MDI market prices ushered in a sharp rise in the trend.

However, the downstream users just need to be limited, combined with prudent stockpile behavior, there is no big outbreak of the phenomenon of orders, there is no price spike behavior. Overall, the demand in May tepid, can only say that slightly better than March and April only.

Third, support is still there, pay close attention to supplier trends

Beginning this week, the domestic polymer MDI market supply situation will be eased

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This week and last week, the purchase of MDI futures will be in the May 22 before and after the arrival of goods, in addition to delivery of pre-sale part of the spot began to actively sell. Although the overall number is not too much, but also basically meet the current customers just need and a small amount of hoard goods needs. The polymerization of MDI traders in the price before the purchase of 44V20 to 20000-20400 yuan / ton, PM200 for the 201500-21700 yuan / ton, and now the spot price in the market were 22,500 yuan / ton and 23,000 yuan / ton, profit Has been very impressive, continue to imagine the space has been insufficient, profit trailer competing shipments, will suppress the market price tends to be stable. With the aggregation of MDI manufacturers announced in June the price policy release date approaching, indicating that the dealers will soon be able to pre-sale and delivery of June supply.

The pilot price of each MDI supplier will support the market in June

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This weekend, to Wanhua as the representative of the MDI suppliers will be announced in June listing price and supply policy. Old rules, we come to look at what will be implemented in June price, discount supply of a price policy should be unexpected. At present, the domestic polymer MDI market after a sharp rebound, Wanhua spot transaction price concentrated in 23,000 yuan / ton, due to the listing in May a price of 23,000 yuan / ton, so with the May market rebound trend, Wanhua June MDI listing Settlement price will rise.

So the question came, how much is the listing price rise in June? I think at least up to 1,000 yuan / ton, million in June MDI listing price will reach at least 24,000 yuan / ton, then the price of its dealer costs will be flat with the current market price. If the listing price is less than or equal to 24,000 yuan / ton, is undoubtedly to the market poured a pot of cold water, lack of support for the market mentality, basically not likely to occur; 24500-25000 yuan / ton almost no more moderate; 25,500 yuan / ton on some too much.

Dharma Cliff Sword, Dow’s Polymer MDI what time to enter China

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According to foreign media reports, Sadara Chemical Company 400,000 tons / year of polymer MDI device has been successfully put into operation, the test material has been shipped to Europe.

According to Dow Asia Pacific official news, from the Saudi MDI originally planned to arrive in China in June, is delayed until July, but the current time is uncertain, the message level of caution.

According to the author of roadside news reported that the number of Dow MD from Saudi Arabia is very large, in addition to meet the needs of China’s direct supply to customers, there will be a large number of goods supply dealer channels. It is said that Sadara Chemical Company 400,000 tons / year MDI device all produce polymer MDI, we have reason to believe that the quality of Dow Aggregate MDI will compete with Wanhua, the price will compete in Shanghai cargo. At present, Dow has not completely want to understand how so many goods in the Chinese market to play.

In the current market environment, the polymerization of MDI suppliers for the control of the market, only to control the supply of goods.

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June MDI market is more embarrassing, Dow polymerization MDI large number of access to the Chinese market, and Wanhua, Bayer, BASF and other suppliers to compete. In the absence of a timetable, there is no need to worry about how the Dow MDI will be on the market. After all, time is long, we have plenty of time to think and deal with.

MDI market in the first half of June market trend five five open, supplier strategy and market mentality is the key

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Dow’s MDI has to wait until the second half of June to have more information to implement, so now we can not consider. June MDI suppliers will be listed on the listing price will support the market, the supply policy will also support the market, then the dealers riding tiger, I believe we do not have low-cost piling space and power. Then the most secure way is to stabilize the market active shipments, after all, traders and downstream users are in a low level of inventory, just need to support the market to move forward.

Commodities meet short-term “bear market”

Private investor cut-loss while Institutional opportunistic go short

Over the past three weeks, the domestic commodity market has plummeted, the black plate led the trend shocking, coking coal, coke, steel, iron ore and other products in the past three trading days across the board refresh the new low of 2017. On the black products, the midline prospects exist “Mishap”, may trend differentiation.

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This year’s March-May plummeted in the trend, iron ore to lead the decline, the Dalian Futures Exchange iron ore main contract since mid-March highs fell to a week this week, a range of 35.6%; rebar futures The main contract since mid-March high point so far the rate of return is just 20%; coking coal from the end of March 1900 yuan / ton higher than the fall of the rate of even better, 21.4%.

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Guangzhou Daily reporter surveyed in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, the two markets, found that now adhere to the “do” the retail is now running out, and the end of April, most retail still think that black products have “play”. Now part of the retail has been “flesh” out, some retail investors have begun to “short.” The Shenzhen futures brokerage platform statistics show that its investment in black products, the mainstream institutions, corporate investors positions also decreased by 30% over the same period in April, holding wait and see and opportunistic short, become the current attitude of these investors.

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Guangzhou Daily reporter learned that the recent black prices caused by the collapse of the main reasons for the following three. First, the off-season demand is not busy than in previous years. Is still in the 3 to 5 months of the traditional off-season, in addition to building materials spiral inventory digestion is still possible, plate type of digestion is not satisfactory, short-term to the stock pressure. Second, iron ore stocks are at historically high levels. As of the end of April, the main port iron ore stocks reached 131.95 million tons. Third, the technical callback pressure, the organization “short” will greater than “do more” will. 2016 years since February 2017, the black plate for 20 consecutive months soared, the majority of black varieties of the cumulative increase over 50%, profit to form a lot of institutional options.

Steel hockey has ended

Late investment and more “short” ideas

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Only from a technical point of view, the current trend of bulk commodity crash, so far did not stop, although the individual species appeared signs of bottoming, but the whole still do not know when the end is the end. Professionals advise investors to be cautious “bargain-hunting”.

Huatai futures (Guangzhou) Zhang Sheng analysis that: the possibility of differentiation of large commodity market outlook, black product plate itself will be differentiated. The prospect of declining varieties of iron ore is the most pessimistic, because iron ore is an international product, subject to the domestic supply side of the structural reform of the best influence of the smallest, the global high inventory will restrict its rebound; rebar up to 1 year and a half “Honeymoon period” to May this year is limited, has ended, the property market regulation overweight, will offset the supply side of the structural reform brought about by the promotion, tend to midline low consolidation, the proposed investors to short thinking; For coking coal, coke products, after the crash may be the first to rebound, investors may wish to bargain hunters.