The acetic anhydride market rose first and then fell in May. As of May 31st, the price of acetic anhydride was 5450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton or 1.89% from the price of 5555 yuan/ton on May 1st.
The acetic anhydride market in May was greatly affected by raw materials and demand, and the price showed a trend of first rising and then falling during the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw material acetic acid rose, and cost support was favorable, driving up the price of acetic anhydride. At the same time, downstream purchases followed up on demand, and the market trading atmosphere was good. In the first half of the month, the price of acetic anhydride remained relatively strong. In the latter half of the year, the price of raw material acetic acid continued to decline, and cost support weakened. At the same time, downstream resistance to high priced goods increased, resulting in insufficient trading on the market and a weak downward trend in the acetic anhydride market.
The acetic acid market fluctuated and declined in May
As of May 31st, the price of acetic acid commodity was 3040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.80% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3193.33 yuan/ton. During the month, the maintenance of the acetic acid plant was concentrated, and the market supply pressure was not significant. However, the terminal market trading was weak, and downstream demand for essential purchases was maintained. The company’s shipments were poor, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. At the same time, the raw material methanol has fallen slightly, and the cost support is insufficient. The demand constraint is obvious, and the price of acetic acid is weakly declining during the month.
Outlook for the future market
According to analysts from Shengyi Society, the low price of raw material acetic acid has a weak impact on the cost side, resulting in insufficient confidence in the acetic anhydride market and limited short-term price increases. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with average demand support. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will continue to operate weakly in the future, with specific attention paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

As of May 29th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.05% compared to the middle of the month.
Core driver analysis
Supply side: From tight to loose, pressure is released in a concentrated manner
In the first half of May, maintenance was concentrated, and the operating rate was low. The tight supply of goods pushed up prices to a high level. In the second half of the month, the maintenance equipment will resume production one after another, and the operating rate will rise to over 80%. The circulation of goods will increase rapidly, but the demand follow-up under high price suppression will be insufficient, and the mismatch between supply and demand will directly trigger a price correction. Enterprises offer discounts on shipments, further driving down market prices.
Cost side: Cost support from ‘weak’ to ‘none’
Some liquid chlorine companies are under pressure to ship, resulting in price reductions and a downward shift in the price center during the cycle. The trend of methanol market is running from strong to weak, and the market has been in a high-level stalemate stage where “cost increases cannot be transmitted” in the early stage. Downstream resistance to high prices is strong. When the price of methanol falls and the liquid chlorine market declines, it directly opens up the downward space for dichloromethane. The cost pressure of lowering prices and shipping for enterprises has significantly eased, coupled with increased supply and weak demand, leading to an imminent price drop.
Demand side: primary demand, high price resistance
Downstream industries such as refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, and coatings only maintain essential procurement, mainly relying on small orders and wait-and-see measures, lacking support for large orders. Under the influence of environmental substitution, traditional demand for coatings and other products continues to be weak, and only the demand for pharmaceuticals remains relatively stable, making it difficult to offset the overall weak demand.
Market forecast:
As the maintenance equipment gradually resumes production, the pressure on the supply side is gradually released; High prices suppress downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods and lead to insufficient demand follow-up; Cost support has weakened, and in the short term, dichloromethane is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the raw material market and the actual progress of equipment resumption.

1、 Price increase chart: Chemical products lead the way, with small varieties showing outstanding price increases

This week’s rising products are concentrated in the chemical sector (18 types) and non-ferrous sector (8 types), with all varieties experiencing a growth rate of over 5% coming from the chemical industry. The overall growth rate is relatively mild, with only 3 varieties experiencing a growth rate of over 4%.

Top three varieties in terms of price increase (led by chemical industry)

Formic acid (+8.33%): At the beginning of the week, the quoted price was 2400 yuan/ton, which rose to 2600 yuan/ton over the weekend, making it the variety with the highest weekly increase.
Phosphoric acid (+7.18%): 9050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 9700 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a year-on-year increase of 43.92%, with strong demand support.
Liquid ammonia (+4.61%): 2240 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 2343.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a slight increase in prices supported by the demand for chemical raw materials.

Other popular rising varieties

Nonferrous sectors: Silver (+1.94%), Tin (+1.53%), and Aluminum (+1.25%) saw slight increases, with Silver experiencing a year-on-year increase of 127.53%, highlighting the resilience of precious metals.
Rubber and building materials: PP (brushed) (+1.55%) and corrugated paper (+1.29%) are steadily increasing, and the marginal recovery of downstream demand provides support.
Energy and Agriculture: Fuel oil (+0.83%) and rapeseed oil (+1.12%) saw a slight increase with limited fluctuations.
2、 Decline List: Chemicals suffer heavy losses, with multiple varieties experiencing a decline of over 5%

This week, the falling commodities were concentrated in the chemical sector (40 types) and non-ferrous sector (13 types), with 7 types experiencing a decline of more than 5%. Chemical products led the decline significantly, with some varieties experiencing a decline of more than 10%, spreading pessimistic sentiment in the market.

Top three varieties in terms of decline (chemical disaster areas)

Melamine (-11.35%): At the beginning of the week, it was 6937.5 yuan/ton, and over the weekend it fell to 6150 yuan/ton, making it the variety with the largest decline throughout the week. The supply-demand imbalance dragged down prices significantly.
Hydrogen peroxide (-8.87%): 826.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 753.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Downstream demand in the chemical industry is weak, and prices continue to weaken.
Ethylene oxide (-7.32%): 8200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 7600 yuan/ton over the weekend, insufficient terminal orders, and increased pressure on the industry to reduce inventory.

Other popular falling varieties

Chemical raw materials: lithium carbonate battery grade (-5.79%), PTA (-5.33%), urea (-1.66%) collectively fell, among which lithium carbonate still rose 183.53% year-on-year, and the short-term correction does not change the long-term logic.
Black series: rebar (-1.19%), hot-rolled coil (-1.10%), iron ore (Australia) (-2.05%) have slightly declined, and weak real estate demand has suppressed the trend of steel prices.
Nonferrous rare earths: neodymium oxide (-6.10%), praseodymium oxide (-6.13%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-4.49%) continue to weaken, leading to loose supply and demand in the rare earth market and downward pressure on prices.

3、 Panoramic performance of sectors: significant differentiation in chemical industry, decent resilience in non-ferrous metals, and fluctuations in energy, agricultural and sideline industries

1. Chemical sector: ups and downs are differentiated, with both leading and falling concentrated

The chemical industry sector is the core fluctuation area this week, with 18 types of gains and 40 types of losses, showing significant differentiation characteristics. The rising end is mainly composed of basic chemicals such as formic acid, phosphoric acid, and liquid ammonia, benefiting from the support of raw material costs and the recovery of local demand; On the downside, midstream chemicals such as melamine, hydrogen peroxide, and ethylene oxide are at the core, coupled with oversupply and weak demand, resulting in a significant drop in prices.

2. Nonferrous sector: more gains and less losses, differentiation between precious metals and industrial metals

Eight types of non-ferrous metals rose and thirteen types fell, with overall resilience better than that of the chemical industry. Precious metals (silver+1.94%) performed outstandingly, with a significant year-on-year increase, supported by their safe haven nature and capital inflows; Industrial metals (aluminum+1.25%, copper+0.28%) saw a slight increase, with low global inventories supporting prices. However, varieties such as lithium carbonate and rare earths fell due to loose supply and demand, resulting in significant internal differentiation within the sector.

3. Energy and Black Sector: Minor fluctuations, dominated by weak demand

The energy sector (fuel oil+0.83%, liquefied natural gas -1.54%) experienced narrow fluctuations, with international oil price fluctuations transmitted to the domestic market. Coupled with stable domestic demand, price fluctuations were limited. The black series (rebar -1.19%, iron ore -2.05%) continues to be weak, and the recovery of real estate infrastructure demand is not as expected. The slow destocking of steel has put downward pressure on prices.

4. Agricultural and textile sectors: minor fluctuations, with supply and demand balance as the main focus

The agricultural and sideline sectors (rapeseed oil+1.12%, eggs -1.08%) experienced narrow fluctuations, while oil and oilseeds saw a slight upward trend due to international market transmission. Eggs entered the off-season of consumption and prices fell. The textile sector (polyester staple fiber -1.54%, PTA-5.33%) is overall weak, with insufficient terminal textile orders and a decline in chemical raw materials, dragging down prices in the textile industry chain.

4、 Market outlook: Short term pressure continues, focus on demand recovery and cost changes

This week, the overall commodity market is under pressure, with chemical products leading the decline and most sectors falling. The core driving factors are weak downstream demand, oversupply of some varieties, and the spread of pessimistic market sentiment. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate weakly, and three core variables need to be focused on:

On the demand side: the recovery of real estate infrastructure, the recovery of chemical and textile terminal orders. If the demand margin recovers, it is expected to support the stabilization of prices for some varieties;
Cost side: Fluctuations in international oil prices, coal and other energy prices will directly affect the costs of the chemical and energy sectors, which will then be transmitted to terminal prices;
Supply and demand pattern: The progress of chemical destocking, whether the loose supply of non-ferrous rare earths has eased, and changes in supply and demand balance will determine the price trend of varieties.

Overall, in the short term, the commodity market is unlikely to change its pattern of differentiation and oscillation. The chemical sector remains the core fluctuation area, and we need to be vigilant about the opportunities for oversold rebound of some high decline varieties, while avoiding the downside risks of sustained loose supply and demand varieties.

As of the close on May 15th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2609, opened at 2850 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2935 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2850 yuan/ton. It closed at 2907 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, an increase of 23 yuan or 0.80% compared to the settlement of the previous trading day. The trading volume is 779879, the position is 693841, and the daily increase is 17227.
On the cost side, coal has basically maintained a balance between production and sales, with cautious and conservative terminal procurement, and strong prices providing support for methanol. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, from the downstream perspective, the market price of acetic acid continues to decline, the formaldehyde market is consolidating horizontally, and the dimethyl ether market is running steadily. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the overall device loss exceeds the recovery amount, resulting in a decrease in production and a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 14th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at 632-634 US dollars per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 161-163 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 526-528 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
In the future, it is predicted that the domestic methanol market will repeatedly play a game between cost support, supply contraction, and weak demand in the near future. Overall, the methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.

Supply side: Tighten first and then loosen, gradually releasing pressure. Early October: Partial device maintenance/load reduction, low social inventory, strong willingness of traders to raise prices, and temporary tight supply. In the second half of the year, with the concentrated resumption of early maintenance equipment and the release of new production capacity, coupled with an increase in the amount of imported goods arriving at the port, the market supply pressure has significantly increased, which has continued to suppress prices. At the end of the month, some devices entered maintenance again, coupled with the low prices in the early stage suppressing the production enthusiasm of some enterprises, the supply pressure slightly eased, supporting a slight rebound in prices.
Demand side: Overall weak. Downstream industries such as plastic weaving, agricultural film, and packaging have weak order follow-up, and the operating rate of enterprises remains low. Procurement is mainly based on on-demand use and procurement, lacking large-scale stocking power. Although the low prices at the end of the month have stimulated some essential demand replenishment, they have not formed a sustained increase in demand, and overall it is still difficult to effectively drive prices.
Cost aspect: In the first half of the year, international crude oil prices fluctuated upwards, providing strong cost support for the market and driving up prices. In the second half of the year, crude oil experienced a pullback due to macroeconomic concerns and inventory data, leading to loose cost support and weak supply and demand, accelerating the decline in PE prices. At the end of the month, crude oil rebounded slightly, and the cost side showed marginal recovery, driving PE prices to recover at a low level.
Short term: There are still expectations of resuming production on the supply side, and there is no significant increase on the demand side. The fluctuation of crude oil on the cost side remains the core variable, and prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern.

Industries such as dyes and synthetic fibers are also facing cost pressures, with profit margins being compressed, which may affect the end consumer market.
Market outlook: Short term strong continuation, long-term downside risk
The sulfuric acid market remained strong in the short term in April, with acid plants in the main production areas still undergoing maintenance, tight sulfur supply, stable chemical demand, and expectations of price increases. In the long run, there is a risk of a pullback: some maintenance facilities will resume in April, leading to an increase in supply; Downstream inventory accumulation and demand overdraft, if the geopolitical situation eases and sulfur prices decrease, coupled with the off-season demand in the second quarter, prices may fluctuate or rebound at a high level.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6940 yuan/ton on February 28th, and 6890 yuan/ton on February 1st. The domestic phosphoric acid market price has increased by 0.73% this month.
2、 Market analysis
This month, the domestic phosphoric acid market has shown a strong upward trend. In the first half of this month, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fluctuated narrowly. The price fluctuation of raw material yellow phosphorus is not significant, and there is no significant change in the cost side. The phosphoric acid market has stable trading and downstream urgent procurement needs. At the end of this month, the market price of phosphoric acid began to rise. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has strengthened, and cost support has increased. The phosphoric acid market has followed the rise of the raw material market.
market conditions
As of February 28th, the factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6900-7250 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6900-7200 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7500 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the yellow phosphorus market is mainly experiencing an upward trend. In the first half of this year, the yellow phosphorus market experienced narrow fluctuations and the trading atmosphere was average. At the end of this month, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market is tight, and market trading is heating up. The transaction price of yellow phosphorus in the market is starting to strengthen, and manufacturers are mainly reluctant to sell.
3、 Future forecast
The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the price trend of the phosphate market has been on the rise recently. The raw material market is strengthening, the cost side support is increasing, and the optimistic attitude of the phosphoric acid market is increasing. It is expected that the short-term domestic phosphoric acid market will mainly operate with a strong trend.

1、 Price trend
Overall: First fell, then rebounded, and weakened again at the end of the month; The monthly average price is 6230 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 1.27%.
phase division
At the beginning of the month (2.1-2.5): Rapid downward trend. After the holiday, raw materials rebounded, cost support weakened, and futures fluctuated downward; Spot price increased from 6324 to 6068 yuan/ton (2.2 yuan/day, down 256 yuan).
Mid month (2.6-2.23): Shockingly rebounded, raw material PTA/MEG strengthened, and costs rose; Futures rebounded and spot prices gradually recovered to the range of 6100-6270 yuan/ton.
At the end of the month (2.24-2.27), the futures rose 136 yuan to 6266 yuan/ton due to the expansion of rising, falling, and weakening; Subsequently, crude oil weakened and downstream resumption of work fell short of expectations, causing spot prices to fall from 6330-6450 yuan/ton.
2、 Core market analysis
1. Cost side (dominant factor)
Crude oil under pressure: OPEC’s expected increase in production and falling oil prices directly suppress PTA/MEG.
• Weakening of raw materials: PTA/MEG prices have declined, bottle chip cost support has weakened, and factory profits have shrunk.
Transmission pathway: crude oil → PX → PTA/MEG → bottle flakes, with significant downward transmission of short-term costs.
2. Supply side
• Operating rate: Approximately 66% per month, with some equipment undergoing maintenance (such as CR Jiangyin and Sanfangxiang), resulting in tight supply.
• Inventory: Low factory inventory provides limited support for prices.
New production capacity: The growth rate will slow down in 2026 (about 6.25%), and the supply and demand will tighten in the medium term.
3. Demand side (maximum drag)
Slow resumption of work: The resumption rate of downstream industries such as soft drinks and edible oils is only 50% -60%, lower than the same period in previous years.
• Prudent procurement: Downstream focus on digesting pre holiday inventory, with few new orders and only replenishing inventory for essential small orders.
• Low production and sales: The production and sales of 2.27 bottle tablets are only 30% (far below the 70% profit and loss line), and the factory is under great pressure to ship.
Peak season expectation: Traditional peak season in mid to late March, but there is no clear order signal in the short term.
4. Futures and market sentiment
Futures led the decline in spot prices, with a weaker basis and a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
The price difference of the quotation has widened (50-100 yuan/ton), and transactions are mostly low-priced goods.
3、 Market forecast (early March)
Trend judgment: Weakly oscillating consolidation, difficult to have a significant rebound.
• Core focus:
Crude oil and PTA/MEG price trends
◦ Downstream resumption progress (after Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) or at the inflection point)
Production and sales of bottle tablets and inventory turnover speed
• Risk points: Continuous decline in crude oil, downstream resumption of work less than expected, further weakening of futures.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda is weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 628 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 622 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% and a year-on-year decrease of 38.72%. On February 5th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 797 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 43.07% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 33.28% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 550-650 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Zhejiang region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 850-970 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 2200-2300 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. This week, the supply of caustic soda is still in a loose state, and there is no obvious destocking by enterprises. The overall load of liquid alkali in Shandong is still high, and the profit of the chlor alkali industry is not high, which forms a support on the cost side. The enthusiasm for downstream alumina entering the market has been average recently, while in the north, due to weather conditions and a gradual decrease in stock during the Spring Festival, the market is still in a stalemate, and more caustic soda is purchased on demand. It is expected that the alumina market will experience weak fluctuations in the later period.
Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the caustic soda prices have been weak this week, and downstream buyers in China have been purchasing on demand recently. There is no positive support for the Shandong market, and demand has not substantially improved. The quotation for orders outside Shandong Province has basically ended, and now the main focus is on executing long-term orders. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may continue to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.