According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic asphalt market in May was organized in a narrow range. From May 1st to 30th, the average price of asphalt producers in Shandong Province decreased from 3806 yuan/ton to 3771 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93%, and the price decreased by 19.87% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, due to the significant drop in international crude oil during the holiday, Sinopec prices were adjusted, and the main business in the southern region was lowered by 100-150 yuan/ton. The atmosphere of spot trading is average, and actual transactions are mostly at low levels. Sorting out the weak market situation of asphalt. In the early part of this month, due to the impact of international crude oil prices, cost support was strengthened. In addition, some regions experienced tight supply, and prices in Shandong and North China increased significantly, driving the overall upward trend of asphalt prices. In the latter half of the month, the positive factors came to an end, and international crude oil prices were weak and volatile, with weakened cost support. At the same time, due to recent heavy rainfall and limited actual market demand, the asphalt spot market was weak and organized.

On the cost side, the international oil market was mixed. In the first ten days of this month, the problem of the US debt ceiling raised investors’ concerns about the economic outlook. In addition, the increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits put pressure on the oil market. The increase in the US crude oil inventory depressed the international oil market. In late September, the US debt ceiling negotiation was a good rumor, and the oil market was boosted by the unresolved question of whether OPEC+, an oil producing country, would cut production. The domestic oil industry chain product market has been affected by market fluctuations and consolidation.

In terms of supply, the main production enterprises are Panjin Beili, Lunte, and Kaiyi, which have stable production. Wusu Mingyuan has intermittently resumed production, and Qilu Petrochemical has switched to asphalt production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, and there is a negative impact on the supply side.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. Some regions consume early stage resources, while rainfall in some regions leads to a decrease in downstream operating rates and a decrease in asphalt consumption. The overall demand side of the asphalt market is biased towards bearish effects.

According to future predictions, there are slight differences in the performance of various regions in the domestic asphalt market, and the situation will continue to be strong in the north and weak in the south. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will mainly maintain consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 880 yuan/ton on May 1st, and 786 yuan/ton on May 29th. The price of ammonium sulfate has decreased by 10.61% this month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the weekly fluctuations from March 6, 2023 to May 22, 2023, it can be seen that the rise and fall of domestic ammonium sulfate cycle are mixed. There was a significant decline in May, with the largest decline of -5.14% in the week ending May 22nd.

The ammonium sulfate market has weakened this month and prices have continued to decline. In the first half of May, the international market for ammonium sulfate remained weak and there was currently no significant improvement. The domestic market trend is not good, and downstream purchases are made on demand, often at low prices. The operating rate of coking grade ammonium sulfate enterprises is stable, the market situation is poor, and the bidding price has decreased. The operating rate of domestic ammonium sulfate enterprises has decreased, the market supply is tight, and prices are firm. In the second half of May, the operating rate of domestic ammonium sulfate enterprises slightly increased, and the market began to weaken. Due to the significant decline in urea prices, the ammonium sulfate market has been negatively affected, and the price of ammonium sulfate continues to decline, resulting in a strong bearish sentiment in the market. As of May 29th, the mainstream factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 720-760 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 780-830 yuan/ton.

This month, the downstream composite fertilizer market has been weak in consolidation and operation, and the market’s trading focus has declined. The trend of composite fertilizer raw materials is not good, and cost support is weak. Downstream restocking is necessary, and fertilizer preparation is more cautious. The main focus is on centralized delivery orders for corn fertilizer, with one more new order being discussed.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the domestic market for ammonium sulfate has been sluggish recently, with prices continuing to weaken. The continuous decline in urea prices is negative for the nitrogen fertilizer market, and downstream purchases are under pressure. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to decline in the short term.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of May 26, 2023, the reference price for domestic n-propanol was 7700 yuan/ton. Compared to May 22, 2023, the price remained basically unchanged. Compared to May 15, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol was 7900 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.53%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that this week (5.22-5.26), the domestic n-propanol market as a whole showed a stable and consolidation trend. This week, the overall news of the domestic n-propanol market was relatively calm, with little change on the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, the normal operation of the n-propanol device is normal, while on the demand side, the downstream of n-propanol continues to be mainly purchased on demand. The mentality of n-propanol operators is stable, and the on-site trading atmosphere is mild. As of May 26, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province in China is around 6700-7800 yuan/ton, with a large difference between high and low prices. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the domestic n-propanol market is generally stable, with a normal trading atmosphere on the market. Downstream demand is mainly restocking according to quantity. Business Society’s n-propanol data analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly stable and dynamic, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong decreased in May. At the beginning of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5162.50 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4925.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.60%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.80%.

Upstream methanol situation: In May, the domestic methanol market declined, with the factory delivery price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong being around 2150 yuan/ton for cash exchange, and the delivery price in Linyi being around 2190 yuan/ton for cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong quoted a price of 2300 yuan/ton for self delivery from the factory. The negotiated price for methanol in the Dongying area of Shandong is between 2160 and 2170 yuan/ton, which will be delivered to spot exchange. The market atmosphere continues to be weak. After the futures price fell below the integer threshold of 2200 yuan/ton, the market sentiment became less confident. At the same time, the raw coal is still weak, the downstream demand is weak for a long time, the social inventory of the methanol market continues to accumulate, the source of imported goods also continues to pour in, and the spot market price of methanol drops again and again.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has experienced a major decline due to poor cost support, while polyoxymethylene has followed suit. Polyoxymethylene analysts at the Business Society predict that prices may decline slightly.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. The average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China this week is 3150.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 27.86% year-on-year. On May 21, the calcium carbide commodity index was 82.53, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 61.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 48.73% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream semicarbon market was consolidated at a high level, while the downstream PVC market price fell slightly. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1350 yuan/ton, and the price has stabilized at a high level. The PVC market price this week dropped from 5805.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5652.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.64%. Weekend prices fell by 34.73% year-on-year. The PVC market price fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened. The downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In late May, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and downstream demand is insufficient. In late May, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market of Shandong region increased from 9633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9791.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.64%. Weekend prices fell by 22.70% year-on-year. On May 22, the isooctanol commodity index was 71.14, a decrease of 0.86 points from yesterday, a decrease of 48.26% from the highest point of 137.50 points in the cycle (2021-08-08), and an increase of 102.39% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have fluctuated this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6870.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6933.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.91%. Weekend prices fell 16.77% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw materials market rose slightly, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP has slightly decreased this week. The price of DOP dropped from 10109.17 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9984.17 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.24%. Weekend prices fell 16.80% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Future prospects

In late May, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. However, the downstream DOP market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of sulfur in East China this week first rose and then fell. On May 19th, the average price of sulfur was 786.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.06% compared to the price of 763.33 yuan/ton on May 13th, and an increase of 9.26% compared to the beginning of the month.

The sulfur market in the East China region is relatively strong and organized. At the beginning of the week, due to the maintenance of some refinery units, the supply of goods decreased, manufacturers actively shipped, and the market mentality was bullish. In addition, downstream procurement was good, and the sulfur quotation continued to rise. Later, downstream procurement returned to rationality. Just after entering the market, follow-up was needed. Refineries mainly shipped at stable prices, while some enterprises had poor shipments. The sulfur quotation was slightly reduced, and the overall sulfur price rose during the week. As of the 19th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong Province was around 810-830 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 720-830 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market remained stable and declining, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price at 192.00 yuan/ton as of June 19th, a decrease of 2.04% compared to last Friday’s price of 196.00 yuan/ton. The sulfuric acid plant is operating normally, the market supply is stable, and downstream demand is sluggish. There are few new orders and transactions in the market, and the on-site pickup follows up on demand. The operator has a wait-and-see mentality, and the sulfuric acid manufacturer reports to follow up on their own inventory and shipment situation to adjust the quotation. The sulfuric acid market is operating in a consolidated manner.

The market of monoammonium phosphate is weak and downward. On May 19, 55% of the market average price of powdered monoammonium phosphate was 2832.50 yuan/ton. On May 13, 55% of the market average price of powdered monoammonium phosphate was 2887.50 yuan/ton. The market price of monoammonium phosphate dropped 1.90%. In the off-season of downstream consumption, demand performance is sluggish, with few new orders and transactions in the market. Sporadic purchases are mainly in demand, with a pessimistic attitude on the market and a weak performance in the monoammonium market.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the domestic sulfur market has stable supply, with refineries actively shipping and end industry consumption in the off-season. Downstream entry into the market mainly follows demand, and some sulfur manufacturers adjust their prices slightly based on their own shipment situation. In the long run, downstream support is weak, and there is a game between supply and demand on the market. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will remain stagnant and the price or range will fluctuate. Specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 10400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 11.86%. Weekend prices fell 40.35% year-on-year. On May 15th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 46.70, an increase of 0.17 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 55.77% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 55.05% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have significantly decreased this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6918.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6880.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.55%. Weekend prices fell by 19.77% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol is 10766.67 yuan/ton,. The high consolidation of the new pentanediol market and average downstream demand have a bearish impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in mid to late May may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has stabilized at a high level, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. Some manufacturers have resumed production, resulting in an increase in isobutyraldehyde flux. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Last week (May 8-14, 2023), a new price for viscose staple fibers began to be implemented locally, with overall calm performance and a slight upward shift in the price center. The transaction atmosphere is relatively average, with downstream cotton yarn factories mainly waiting and seeing, and new orders are rare. The price center of raw material dissolution slurry has decreased, and the load of viscose staple fibers has increased, but the factory inventory is not high. The industry’s startup rate has slightly rebounded, with the overall industry load currently around 72.6%, mainly due to the restart of Xinjiang Zhongtai equipment after maintenance.

Viscose staple fiber price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the center of gravity of viscose staple fiber prices has slightly shifted upwards. As of May 14th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13360 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.60%.

In terms of cost: The production cost of viscose staple fibers has not changed much, and the cost support is limited. The price center of raw material dissolved slurry has slightly declined, and the domestic market is mainly stable. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and businesses mainly execute early orders and ship smoothly.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Human cotton yarn is relatively stable, with average transactions and prices basically maintained. However, some enterprises have experienced price reductions and promotions under inventory pressure. According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of May 14th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class product) was 17566 yuan/ton, and the price remained unchanged. The production of human cotton yarn has rebounded, and it has been around 71% since the end of this week.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the performance of the viscose staple fiber market is calm, and enterprises are still mainly focused on executing orders, with firm quotations from enterprises. It is difficult for terminal demand to show significant improvement in the short term, with downstream procurement being the main focus. The new round of prices and orders basically ended last week, and the market has once again entered a wait-and-see period for adjustment. Analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will remain stable.

From May 5 to May 12, 2023, the market price of antimony ingots in East China is weak. Last weekend, the price was 82125 yuan/ton, and this weekend, the price was 81875 yuan/ton, down 0.3%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently shown an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival. It entered a stable period after mid March, entered a downward channel in mid April, and the decline slowed down at the end of April. The trend remained stable in May, and prices entered an upward channel in June. After a brief period of stability in July, the market continued to decline again. After August, the market gradually stabilized and remained stable for 8 consecutive weeks. At the end of October, prices began to decline continuously. After December, prices continued to recover, and in mid to late March, they remained stable after three consecutive weeks of decline.

The price situation of European strategic small metal antimony this week (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ May 5th/ May 12th/ Up and down

European small metal antimony/ 12050./12050./-

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has temporarily stabilized, with a price of $120150/ton as of May 5th. Currently, the overall market atmosphere is on the wait-and-see side.

Most of the antimony ingot market has remained temporarily stable in recent times, with little change in market supply and demand, resulting in poor demand. The supply side is slightly tight, and the situation of tight supply at the mining side has not significantly improved. However, this news has been basically digested by the market, making it difficult to trigger market trends. The overall performance of the demand side is still weak in the near future, and the purchase of antimony ingots remains in demand. Downstream manufacturers have some resistance towards raw material prices, especially antimony oxide, which has been experiencing poor sales performance and poor terminal demand, making it difficult for raw material prices to continue to rise. Overall, the antimony ingot market, which lacks demand support, is difficult to improve, and the market supply and demand remain in a weak balance, making it difficult to break in the near future. In the future market, there is currently a strong wait-and-see mentality, and actual transactions are slightly light. Due to a lack of demand support, it is expected that the overall stability and weak operation in the future market will be the main focus.

The price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety/ May 5th/ May 12th/ Up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide./71000./71000./0

99.8% antimony trioxide./72500./72500./0

This week, the antimony oxide market continued to maintain a temporary stable operation, with overall stable construction. The demand for antimony ingots remained in high demand, while the intention to receive upstream goods was weak, with most of them maintaining on-demand procurement.