1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the phenolic resin market is showing a downward trend. As of May 15th, the mainstream price of domestic phenolic resin (2123) was 10175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan or 1.21% compared to the previous working day. The price range of phenolic resin (2123, premium product) is between 13000 to 15500 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

As of today, the phenol market has been operating in a volatile manner after stopping its decline. On May 1st, the market was quoted at 8145 yuan/ton, and on May 15th, it was quoted at 7860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.50%. Downstream factories have finished stocking up, and under the pressure of traders shipping, the market has entered a weak trend.

Supply and demand side:

The main downstream mold version, grinding, and friction material markets lack information guidance, and the prices listed by factories remain stable. Downstream demand for follow-up is high, and trading volume is limited.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Recently, the market price of phenolic resin has declined. From a cost perspective, the post holiday raw material phenol market experienced a volatile operation after stopping its decline, resulting in a bearish performance on the cost side. From the perspective of supply and demand, the spot supply in the market is loose, with downstream buyers mainly focusing on demand. The purchasing intention is average and stable. In the short term, phenolic resins are prone to decline but difficult to rise, so it is necessary to pay attention to the phenol market in the later stage.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of May 11th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7433.33 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexane has remained stable this week, compared to the same period last week. Currently, the support for raw material cost prices is weak, and the cyclohexane market is mainly stable in the short term.

This week, the price of cyclohexane in the market remained stable, with the current mainstream price being around 7400 yuan/ton. The support for raw material costs is insufficient, and the support for cyclohexane market costs is weak. The downstream negotiation atmosphere is cold, and the trading atmosphere is cold. Currently, there are not many inquiries on the market, mainly small orders, and the cyclohexane market is slowly consuming inventory.

Chemical index: On May 10th, the chemical index was 869 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 37.93% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 45.32% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that in the short term, the cyclohexane market is mainly stable, with limited price fluctuations, and the mainstream market price is around 7400 yuan/ton.

This week (May 6-11), the cost of raw material caprolactam remained strong, with prices actively rising slightly. Downstream demand remained stable, and the nylon filament market remained stable with little movement, resulting in a narrow upward shift in prices. The operating rate of the nylon filament industry is still at a high level, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and the inventory pressure is not significant. Downstream manufacturers are multi-dimensional and purchase according to demand, with overall stable demand. Overall, there has been a tentative increase in costs, with little change in on-site supply and stable terminal demand.

Market price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, this week (May 6-11), the price of nylon filament saw a narrow upward shift. As of May 11, 2024, the price of DTY nylon filament (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region was quoted at 18960 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.64%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16625 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.61%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 20050 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.63%.

Actively exploring the increase in raw materials

This week (May 6-11), the trading atmosphere of caprolactam and downstream has gradually improved. Currently, the demand in the downstream nylon spinning field remains stable, and the production of nylon spinning remains at a high level. The social inventory of PA6 slicing process is still at a low level, and the sales atmosphere of polymerization enterprises is preferred. This week, the price of slicing has rebounded slightly, and downstream demand for replenishment is still acceptable. The polymerization factory’s raw material caprolactam is replenished simultaneously, supporting the demand for caprolactam. Under the weak profitability of caprolactam enterprises, product prices actively increased, and the caprolactam market rebounded slightly. On May 11th, the reference average price of caprolactam in the domestic market was 12900 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%. In the later stage, the caprolactam market may have a stable preference, but there are still constraints on continuing to rise, or there may be a slight strong adjustment.

Supply and demand

This week (May 6-11), nylon manufacturers have maintained stable operating loads, sufficient supply of goods, and low inventory pressure. Entering May, downstream demand is gradually increasing, and downstream manufacturers are multidimensional and purchasing according to demand, maintaining stable demand in the nylon spinning field.

Future Market Forecast

The spot market for raw material caprolactam is relatively strong, with reasonable support on the cost side. On site supply remains normal, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. Analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly follow the stable and moderate preference of raw materials, and the price will move up in a narrow range with large stability and small fluctuations.

According to the market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 8th, the price of n-butanal was 7912 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.72% compared to April 8th at 8050 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials:

As the spring inspection of raw material propylene is gradually coming to an end, coupled with the release of some new production capacity, the supply of propylene in the field has significantly rebounded, and the demand has not improved much. The market lacks positive boost, and the support for n-butanal is weak.

The overall weak operation of the raw hydrogen market results in stable prices, with an industry average price of 2.2-3.2 yuan/nm3.

On the demand side:

Downstream n-butanol from butyraldehyde is still in a game of supply and demand and expectations. The operating rate of downstream butyl esters has declined, and n-butanol is still in a state of destocking. It is expected that multiple sets of new butanol and octanol units will be put into operation in the middle of the year, which is a bearish situation for supply and demand.

Future Market Forecast:

The weak supply and demand have led to a weak rebound of n-butyraldehyde after a cliff like decline in April, remaining at a mid year low. There is no positive support for demand in the later period, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly.

In April, the domestic MIBK market saw a significant increase, and in the latter half of the year, the focus of negotiations remained at 15200-15600 yuan/ton. The market remained relatively stable after the holiday, with little market volatility.

After a significant increase in upstream acetone, there was a slight pullback after the holiday. The negotiated price in East China remained at 8150-8200 yuan/ton, with weakened cost support. Downstream terminal enterprises had average purchasing enthusiasm, and the post holiday wait-and-see sentiment was heavy. Overall, the market appeared slightly weak. Business Society predicts that although there is not much short-term supply pressure, terminal demand is limited, and market prices remain stable, the trading volume on the exchange is limited.

Recently, the market trend of butyl acrylate has been stable, with the price of raw material n-butanol stabilizing. Cost support is still acceptable, and butyl acrylate factories and holders have followed the market’s quotations. Some downstream devices have lowered their prices, and spot purchases have followed suit, resulting in a stable market price. As of May 6th, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate for Shengyishe is 9440.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.

In terms of demand:

The demand for downstream tape master rolls is lukewarm, procurement is not active, profit situation is not optimistic, inventory is steadily increasing, and it is difficult to ease in the short term. From the trend, short-term sales with inventory are expected. A more optimistic point is that the demand forecast for May will continue to be weak, and after the demand is continuously suppressed, it is predicted that there will be a certain degree of rebound in the future. The downstream tape and lotion factories basically recovered to the normal production level, but due to the slow recovery of terminal demand, the downstream mainly consumes inventory, and is willing to replenish the raw materials as soon as they are purchased.

In terms of supply:

The market price of raw material n-butanol is stable, and cost pressure is reduced. The increase in spot supply has led to factories and holders following the market in their shipments. Downstream users mainly consume previous inventory, while buyers are cautious and cautious. Market negotiations have declined, and there is little change in short-term fundamentals.

Future Market Forecast:

In May, butyl acrylate underwent a narrow consolidation operation. If it rebounds, the rebound strength needs to continue to follow the acceptable level downstream. The supply and demand pattern is relatively loose, and the domestic butyl acrylate market is still under pressure for short-term shipments. The overall decline of butyl acrylate in the short term may be limited.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market remained strong at a high level in April. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 22900.00 yuan/ton on April 30th, which remained unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the cost side:

In early April, crude oil gradually rose, which was beneficial for the market of adipic acid raw materials. At the same time, the operating rate of domestic adipic acid plants is relatively low, and large factories have raised their listing prices narrowly. The supply price of the external market has stabilized, and the domestic supply has increased. The tight supply situation on site has improved. At the same time, there are relatively few new orders downstream, and the market atmosphere is cautious. At the end of the month, the settlement prices introduced by major factories have not changed much compared to the previous month. Hexanediamine is also operating at a high level with strong support from overseas large factories in terms of high priced supply; Overall, the support of costs for the PA66 market remains strong.

In terms of supply:

The operating rate of domestic PA66 production lines remained stable in April. The overall industry load is around 66%. The production of the enterprise is stable, and there is no obvious accumulation of inventory. The supplier’s price adjustment operation is clear, and the support is still sufficient.

In terms of demand:

During the month, textile, electrical, and modification enterprises will follow a systematic approach to stocking and consumption, while most of the pick-up operations will maintain production as the main focus. The main force of on-site trading is supported by the follow-up of demand, and the buyer camp has slight resistance to high priced goods. The stocking volume before the end of the month is not significant, and the trading firm’s offer is stable. The demand side has average support for PA66.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 remained stagnant at a high level in April. The raw material market still supports the cost side of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a low load and stable supply. The demand follow-up of terminal enterprises is average. It is expected that the PA66 market will continue to operate steadily after the holiday.