As of February 28th, according to the price data from Shengyi Society, the mainstream average spot price of polyester bottle chips in East China is 6322 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend
Overall: First fell, then rebounded, and weakened again at the end of the month; The monthly average price is 6230 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 1.27%.
phase division
At the beginning of the month (2.1-2.5): Rapid downward trend. After the holiday, raw materials rebounded, cost support weakened, and futures fluctuated downward; Spot price increased from 6324 to 6068 yuan/ton (2.2 yuan/day, down 256 yuan).
Mid month (2.6-2.23): Shockingly rebounded, raw material PTA/MEG strengthened, and costs rose; Futures rebounded and spot prices gradually recovered to the range of 6100-6270 yuan/ton.
At the end of the month (2.24-2.27), the futures rose 136 yuan to 6266 yuan/ton due to the expansion of rising, falling, and weakening; Subsequently, crude oil weakened and downstream resumption of work fell short of expectations, causing spot prices to fall from 6330-6450 yuan/ton.
2、 Core market analysis
1. Cost side (dominant factor)
Crude oil under pressure: OPEC’s expected increase in production and falling oil prices directly suppress PTA/MEG.
• Weakening of raw materials: PTA/MEG prices have declined, bottle chip cost support has weakened, and factory profits have shrunk.
Transmission pathway: crude oil → PX → PTA/MEG → bottle flakes, with significant downward transmission of short-term costs.
2. Supply side
• Operating rate: Approximately 66% per month, with some equipment undergoing maintenance (such as CR Jiangyin and Sanfangxiang), resulting in tight supply.
• Inventory: Low factory inventory provides limited support for prices.
New production capacity: The growth rate will slow down in 2026 (about 6.25%), and the supply and demand will tighten in the medium term.
3. Demand side (maximum drag)
Slow resumption of work: The resumption rate of downstream industries such as soft drinks and edible oils is only 50% -60%, lower than the same period in previous years.
• Prudent procurement: Downstream focus on digesting pre holiday inventory, with few new orders and only replenishing inventory for essential small orders.
• Low production and sales: The production and sales of 2.27 bottle tablets are only 30% (far below the 70% profit and loss line), and the factory is under great pressure to ship.
Peak season expectation: Traditional peak season in mid to late March, but there is no clear order signal in the short term.
4. Futures and market sentiment
Futures led the decline in spot prices, with a weaker basis and a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
The price difference of the quotation has widened (50-100 yuan/ton), and transactions are mostly low-priced goods.
3、 Market forecast (early March)
Trend judgment: Weakly oscillating consolidation, difficult to have a significant rebound.
• Core focus:
Crude oil and PTA/MEG price trends
◦ Downstream resumption progress (after Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) or at the inflection point)
Production and sales of bottle tablets and inventory turnover speed
• Risk points: Continuous decline in crude oil, downstream resumption of work less than expected, further weakening of futures.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda is weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 628 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 622 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% and a year-on-year decrease of 38.72%. On February 5th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 797 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 43.07% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 33.28% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 550-650 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Zhejiang region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 850-970 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 2200-2300 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. This week, the supply of caustic soda is still in a loose state, and there is no obvious destocking by enterprises. The overall load of liquid alkali in Shandong is still high, and the profit of the chlor alkali industry is not high, which forms a support on the cost side. The enthusiasm for downstream alumina entering the market has been average recently, while in the north, due to weather conditions and a gradual decrease in stock during the Spring Festival, the market is still in a stalemate, and more caustic soda is purchased on demand. It is expected that the alumina market will experience weak fluctuations in the later period.
Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the caustic soda prices have been weak this week, and downstream buyers in China have been purchasing on demand recently. There is no positive support for the Shandong market, and demand has not substantially improved. The quotation for orders outside Shandong Province has basically ended, and now the main focus is on executing long-term orders. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may continue to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall price of bromine has risen this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 36100 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 41400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 14.68% and an increase of 89.91% compared to the same period last year. On December 30th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 125.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 48.77% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 113.19% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price of bromine in Shandong region remained firm. The factory quotation in Shandong region is based on 39000-44000 yuan/ton, with the mainstream price around 41500 yuan/ton. Inventory replenishment is limited, and supply continues to tighten. However, downstream companies are observing and the market trading is flat. Downstream demand is generally average. The atmosphere of bromine wait-and-see remains, and the market supply and demand are in a tight game, resulting in weak actual transactions. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been rising, with an average market price of 3661 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 4210 yuan/ton at the end of the month, representing a 15% increase and a 147.99% increase compared to the same period last year.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to be strong this month, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to be strong this month. Bromine supply is tight in the near future, and imports are limited. However, downstream purchases are mostly based on demand, continuing the trend of rigid procurement. The overall market trading atmosphere is weak. It is expected that bromine may continue to consolidate and operate after a rise in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.