Since September, asphalt prices have been fluctuating downwards due to various factors. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong region was 3680 yuan/ton on September 1st, and as of September 29th, the ex factory price in Shandong region was 3593 yuan/ton.
In September, the supply of raw materials was abundant, and most local refineries maintained a high level of production enthusiasm, driving the overall asphalt production to increase compared to last week. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 42.0%, an increase of 5.7% compared to the previous week. The weekly asphalt production was 701000 tons, an increase of 15.5% compared to the previous week. Recently, competition for various brand resources remains fierce, and the pressure on asphalt supply remains high and difficult to reduce. It is expected that the planned production of asphalt in October will remain high, with a total domestic asphalt production of 2.682 million tons in October.

In terms of demand, some regions in China experience concentrated rainfall and typhoon weather, which hinders terminal demand. The national demand for asphalt shows a pattern of strong demand in the north and weak demand in the south. Due to the increase in supply and the suppression of demand by rainfall, the accumulation of inventory in Shandong region is more obvious. 104 domestic asphalt companies have a total social inventory of 154.1 tons. In the Northeast region, due to the narrowing of construction windows and price reductions by traders, the price advantage of social inventory resources has become apparent. Coupled with the support of rush work demand, the process of destocking has accelerated.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the fourth quarter has seen a significant increase in asphalt production recently, which may cause significant pressure on prices after the peak season ends and break the relatively strong pattern among asphalt consumers. Therefore, we hold a bearish view on asphalt prices in the fourth quarter.

The Jin Jiu market fell short of expectations, and the overall domestic acetone market continued to decline, currently reaching a new low for the year. The East China acetone market reported an average daily price of 4525 yuan/ton from September 1st to 4408 yuan/ton on September 29th, a decrease of 2.58%. From the perspective of the national acetone market, there are fluctuations of the same magnitude.

From the supply side, regardless of the manufacturer’s phenol ketone unit, there were different durations of shutdowns and maintenance during the month. As a result, the operating rate of phenol ketone units in China decreased to a low point of 66%. The supply of goods under import contracts has arrived in succession, especially the supply of goods from Saudi Arabia has been significantly supplemented. The supply of goods from South Korea, Taiwan, China, China, and Singapore has also been supplemented in succession, while the supply of goods from Thailand may be reduced.
From the demand side, it is expected that the operating rate of downstream bisphenol A plants will increase, and the demand for acetone will also increase; The operating loads of isopropanol, MMA, and MIBK have slightly changed, while the demand for acetone has not changed significantly. From a cost perspective, there has been a slight increase in both the supply and demand of raw material pure benzene, and the supply continues to be lower than demand. It is expected that the short-term price will strengthen and consolidate.
In September, the cargo volume of acetone in East China was 44000 tons, of which 35200 tons have arrived, 3800 tons are in transit, and 2000 tons were in transit in October. From the perspective of shipping schedule, the subsequent import freight will mainly be sourced from South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Thailand, with domestic sources also being supplemented.
Business Society expects that the pre holiday stocking of terminal factories will be basically completed, waiting for further clarification after the holiday. There are fewer trading days affected by holidays in October, which puts pressure on contract digestion. Supply has increased and demand has slightly increased. It is expected that the domestic acetone market will maintain a weak and volatile trend after the National Day holiday, and this year’s gold, silver, and silver prices will fall far short of expectations.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 26th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4010 yuan/ton. Compared with last week, DMF prices have remained stable with small fluctuations. Currently, the fluctuation range of DMF prices is limited, and the overall market negotiation focus is stable, with a relatively low market negotiation focus.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, the DMF market is currently operating steadily with little price fluctuation. The spot delivery price for DMF in Shandong and surrounding areas is based on 3650-3800 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 3900 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF market is mainly operating steadily. The spot delivery price for DMF in South China is based on 4000-4050 yuan/ton in Guangzhou, with a weak and stable focus. The mainstream delivery price for DMF in East China is based on 3830-3920 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and 3880-3980 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. The DMF market is currently operating steadily.
Upstream: The upstream methanol market is mainly operating weakly. As of September 26th, the reference range for fixed price negotiations of methanol in the US dollar market is 259-264 US dollars/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia’s methanol Ordos North Line is between 2080-2100 yuan/ton, with a factory withdrawal of 10 yuan/ton at the low end. Today, the small orders for methanol imports and exports in Ningbo area were sold at a spot exchange rate of 2260-2280 yuan/ton. Currently, the overall market negotiation atmosphere is average.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with insufficient upward momentum and maintaining the current trend in price dynamics.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 22, the price of isooctanol was 6983.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.95% compared to the price of 7050 yuan/ton on September 14. This week, the isooctanol enterprise equipment remained stable at a high level, and the operating rate of isooctanol equipment remained stable at 96%. The production capacity of isooctanol increased, and the supply of isooctanol increased; Downstream plasticizer companies have stable production, but the demand support for isooctanol by plasticizers is limited. The increase in supply and demand support is limited, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and fall
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 22, the DOP price was 7450.84 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.78% compared to the DOP price of 7509.16 yuan/ton on September 15. DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen, while DOP companies have seen high levels of consolidation in their operating loads. The demand for isooctanol remains supported, and the price support for isooctanol still exists.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, on the supply side, the equipment operating load of isooctanol enterprises has been consolidating at a high level, coupled with the addition of new production capacity of isooctanol, the supply of isooctanol is sufficient. In terms of demand, DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen, with limited support for isooctanol demand. In the future, the increase in supply and demand support for isooctanol will be limited, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will remain weak and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 19, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 5916 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as September 13. Compared with September 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6100 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 184 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.01%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed a consolidation operation. During the week, there was little change in the market situation of n-butanol in Shandong, and the fundamental performance was relatively calm. As of September 19th, the reference price for n-butanol in Shandong region is around 5900-6000 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
Supply and demand: Stable supply and demand, moderate trading
At present, the shipment performance of n-butanol market is still acceptable, with manufacturers actively shipping and downstream stocking according to demand. The atmosphere of inquiry and trading is mild, and some downstream customers have pre holiday stocking expectations, which has boosted market confidence to some extent. The supply and demand transmission of n-butanol is stable.
In terms of cost: raw materials are fluctuating and rising, while cost support is stable
Recently, the raw material propylene market has fluctuated and risen, providing stable cost support for n-butanol. As of September 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6730.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% compared to the beginning of this month (6663.25 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the supply and demand of n-butanol in the upstream and downstream are balanced, and the downstream butyl acrylate market is active, which drives the downstream to increase their enthusiasm for raw material procurement. As the National Day approaches, the overall demand transmission expectation in the market is improving, and the mentality of the industry is good. The n-butanol data analyst of Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China will mainly operate steadily and positively.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of pure benzene in Shandong Province first fell and then rose this week, with a slight overall increase. On Monday, the price of pure benzene was 5945.33 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5952 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.11% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: Today, the market trading in Shandong has improved, and the market price has slightly increased. The performance of pure benzene in East China is average, with a slight decline in market prices. At present, the market is cautious in refining and delivering orders, and there is still purchasing demand for downstream essential needs. Holders of goods are bullish in the coming months and are more cautious about the macro news situation.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On September 11th, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $62.37 per barrel, a decrease of $1.30 or 2.0%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November was $66.37 per barrel, a decrease of $1.12 or 1.7%.
Foreign pure benzene: FOB Korea remained stable at $717/ton on September 11th, while CFR China rose by 3 to $738/ton. FOB Rotterdam stable at $666/ton, FOB US Gulf stable at $261/gallon.
Overall expectation: The pure benzene market is expected to experience slight fluctuations in the short term, with cautious trading. Observe the cost and demand side news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on September 5th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was referenced to 7087 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as August 30th. Compared with August 1st (cyclohexanone price reference 7262 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the first week of September, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province was mainly in the process of consolidation and operation. At the beginning of the month, the performance of the cyclohexanone market in Shandong was relatively calm, with little fluctuation in the cyclohexanone market. The supply side of cyclohexanone remained stable, with downstream users mainly purchasing for their essential needs, and weak transmission between supply and demand. As of September 4th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong, China is around 7050-7150 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost: In early September, the pure benzene market on the cost raw material side fluctuated narrowly, which slightly loosened the cost support for cyclohexanone. On September 4th, the reference price of pure benzene was 5968.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11% compared to September 1st (5975.33 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is relatively quiet, with stable supply and average demand performance. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke in August first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase in prices. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 2435 yuan/ton on September 2 and 2390 yuan/ton on August 1, with a monthly increase of 1.88%.

Cost wise: Since August, international crude oil prices have weakened, and the monthly average price has been decreasing for two consecutive months. The main negative factors for the decline in oil prices in August are the firm stance of OPEC+on increasing production, which has created a negative atmosphere, and the United States’ push for Russia Ukraine peace talks, resulting in a significant easing of the geopolitical situation.
Supply side: In early August, the transaction of petroleum coke in the local refining industry was good, and downstream carbon enterprises stocked up and replenished their inventory. In addition, the low inventory of petroleum coke in refineries led to a continuous rise in petroleum coke prices; In mid to late August, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was average, and refinery prices continued to decline; The enthusiasm of downstream enterprises for petroleum coke procurement is generally low: downstream aluminum carbon mainly maintains the essential demand for petroleum coke, the negative electrode material market mainly purchases petroleum coke on demand, and graphite electrode enterprises have low production enthusiasm and limited procurement of petroleum coke. In mid to early August, the production of petroleum coke at ports was active, and port inventories continued to decrease. Southwest silicon companies started construction one after another, which was favorable for Formosa Plastics’ coke production; In the latter half of the month, the shipment of petroleum coke from the port was still acceptable, and the spot goods at the port increased, resulting in a slight decline in coke prices.
On the demand side: In August, silicon companies in Xinjiang resumed production, which led to a slight increase in overall production and supply. In mainstream regions, the operating rate of Northwest China ranks first with a reference of around 76%, followed by Yunnan where the operating rate remains at around 68%, and Xinjiang and Sichuan where the operating rate of metal silicon is around 56-57%. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.
The market for sulfur calcined coke rose in August, with most companies having low inventory levels and a strong willingness to push up prices for newly signed orders.
The domestic production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.035 million tons (close to the industry limit), with limited short-term growth; Some enterprises have reduced production (Shandong Weiqiao reduced production by 500000 tons, Qinghai Zhonglv reduced production by 400000 tons) and resumed production (Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai Aluminum plans to resume production of another 50000 tons within this year). Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.
Market forecast: Currently, downstream demand for petroleum coke is supporting the petroleum coke market, and a new round of pricing adjustments for downstream pre baked anodes is positive for market sentiment. It is expected that petroleum coke may rise slightly in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 1st to 29th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2389 yuan/ton to 2241 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 6.17% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 10.18%.

At the beginning of the month, there was a trend of recovery in the domestic methanol market. Northwest olefin factories increased their external procurement volume, coupled with the positive effects of some units still undergoing maintenance and low inventory levels in enterprises. Upstream enterprises shipped at high prices, while downstream enterprises passively followed suit.
In the first half of the month, the domestic methanol market mainly rose, with local supply maintenance combined with the increase in olefin production in mainland China. Against the backdrop of low inventory, the tight supply of circulating goods in the market led to companies being reluctant to sell at high prices. Traders were actively chasing after the price increase due to the impact of buying, while downstream buyers passively purchased at high prices.
In the middle of the month, there were regional differences in the domestic methanol market, and macro policies pushed for a stronger domestic market than ports, which had a certain boost to prices. The high import expectations of the port methanol market and the rapid accumulation of inventory expectations have a strong suppression on the market.
At the end of the month, domestic methanol facilities resumed, but the support of the mainland market was slightly insufficient, and the high price of gas in the market was not good.
As of the close on August 29th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2509 for methanol futures opened at 2373 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2385 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2357 yuan/ton. It closed at 2361 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 7 yuan or 0.30% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 419697 lots, the position is 821019, and the daily increase is 35186.
On the cost side, with sufficient coal supply, the rate of inventory decline has slowed down, and prices are running weakly, which may bear some downward pressure and weaken the support on the cost side. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The market for glacial acetic acid is experiencing a partial upward trend. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is stable with an upward trend. Some factories in the main production areas have a strong sentiment of destocking, maintaining low prices and weak stability to continue the market. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is running smoothly. The price of raw material methanol is strongly supported by high costs, and the supply of dimethyl ether has decreased. With the support of its own low supply, the trading volume has significantly improved compared to the previous period. Most downstream products are affected by the decline in methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the overall equipment recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of August 28th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 321.5-322.5 US dollars/ton. FOB US Gulf methanol market closing price of 94-95 cents/gallon; The closing price of the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 287.5-288.5 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
In the future forecast, there will be an increase in the reverse flow of coastal cargo volume in the near future, and the resumption of maintenance projects in the domestic real estate area is relatively concentrated, with some olefin extraction efforts weakening. There is also a possibility of further weakening in the domestic real estate area, and attention should be paid to adjusting the pace of freight price increases. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will consolidate weakly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7453 yuan/ton on August 1st and 7445 yuan/ton on August 29th, a decrease of 0.11%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9516 yuan/ton on August 1st and 9650 yuan/ton on August 29th, an increase of 1.40%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7975 yuan/ton on August 1st and 7982 yuan/ton on August 29th, an increase of 0.09%.

Polyethylene prices fluctuated in August, with high-pressure products showing a strong trend, while linear and low-pressure products mainly showed a consolidation trend with little change. On the supply side, the trend of high-voltage products is relatively strong, mainly due to maintenance of high-voltage equipment, tight supply, and strong quotes from merchants. As the end of the month approaches, polyethylene spot resources will decrease and pre-sales will increase. On the demand side, it is transitioning from the off-season to the peak season, and demand has improved. The agricultural film industry has started to recover, but after the market rebound, transactions are following cautiously, limiting the upward space for prices. On the cost side, the recent high volatility of international oil prices has provided some bottom support for polyethylene. The Chinese government is about to launch a comprehensive rectification of the petrochemical and refining industries, and domestic policies are favorable for the polyethylene market.
Short term supply pressure has eased to some extent; September is the traditional peak season for polyethylene, and there is a positive expectation for demand. However, downstream enterprises are currently purchasing according to demand, and their attitude is relatively cautious; Boosted by domestic policies; It is expected that polyethylene will mainly experience strong fluctuations.