I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the trend of the price of soda ash in East China fell narrowly on the 25th, with the average ex factory price of 1643.33 yuan / ton, down 4.09%. On November 25, the commodity index of light soda ash was 84.27, down 3.59 points from yesterday, 28.50% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and 33.44% higher than 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: on the 25th, the price of soda ash enterprises was mostly lowered, and some of them were stable. Kunshan Jinggang Industrial Group Co., Ltd. has seen a decline of 160 yuan / ton of light soda ash, with a current offer of 1530 yuan / ton. Haohua Junhua Group Co., Ltd. has a temporary price stability compared with last week, with a factory price of 1600 yuan / ton of light soda ash and 1800 yuan / ton of heavy soda. Huai’an Bolian Trade Co., Ltd. has a temporary factory price stability, with a factory price of 1680 yuan / ton of light soda ash and 780 yuan of heavy soda ash/ Tons. According to the data monitoring of business association, the market price of soda ash enterprises in Hebei has also been reduced, with the price between 1350-1530 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply: the starting load of Dahua soda plant has been increased, while the maintenance of CNOOC soda plant is still in progress, and the double ring maintenance plan may be postponed to December. There are not many manufacturers for maintenance and production restriction in the near future. The starting load of domestic soda ash manufacturers is high. In addition, due to the weather in the northwest, the transportation is inconvenient in the snow season. In addition, the freight has been increased, which is unfavorable for the delivery of soda ash enterprises. The demand of float glass for heavy soda is reduced, the price of soda ash continues to decline in the near future, and the enthusiasm of end users and traders is not high. On the other hand, soda ash enterprises have no environmental protection policy pressure, and the inventory of soda manufacturers is still likely to rise.

Demand: in the near future, the float glass manufacturers have made considerable profits, but the number of water cooling float lines has increased, and the demand for heavy alkali of float glass has slightly decreased. The demand is sluggish, the market of daily use glass is poor, some small glass bottle manufacturers shut down, the market of glass enterprises is not optimistic, the demand for soda ash is reduced, the downstream just needs to pick up, the industry procurement is stable, it is difficult to make a breakthrough.

III. future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of the business association, there are few manufacturers planning to repair and reduce in the near future, the starting load of soda ash manufacturers remains high, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers continues to increase, and the delivery pressure of manufacturers does not decrease. The downstream demand of soda ash is limited and the market is not optimistic. Under the influence of cost pressure, the market is oversupplied and the price is reduced. However, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is still prominent, and it is difficult to improve the demand in the downstream. Some downstream users said that they planned to start preparing goods before the festival in December. It is difficult for the domestic soda ash market to improve greatly in the short term due to the low mentality of the industry. It depends on the inventory situation and the downstream market demand.

I. price trend

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data in the business club’s large list, last week (11.18-22), adipic acid in China remained weak, with little price change, but it still remained in the downturn. As of last weekend, the mainstream price was generally 7900-8100 yuan / ton.

II. Analysis and comment

Last week, the adipic acid market was adjusted in a narrow range with little price change. From the basic point of view, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors hindering the rebound of adipic acid market, as well as the upstream raw material market did not show any good. At present, the weak demand in the downstream of adipic acid, together with the increase of supply, leads to the increase of social inventory pressure. Since October, the market has been in the stage of de stocking. The effect of de stocking for two consecutive months is not obvious. The enterprise inventory and market inventory still maintain a high level, which is also an important reason why the price of adipic acid has not rebounded. In terms of region: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some dealers are slightly weak, but the range is limited to 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, the upstream cost has not changed much. Although pure benzene has ended the downward shock pattern and rebounded slightly, it has not brought much positive effect on the adipic acid market. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of pure benzene has only increased by 0.95% (as shown in the figure below) from November 1 to 22, which may be one of the reasons why the price of adipic acid remains weak.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

First of all, from the perspective of supply, the market is still dominated by overall oversupply, manufacturers and market stocks are still both high, and dealers are under great pressure, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have hoarded a large number of sources of goods, and the inventory pressure is relatively high. In addition, the main reason why adipic acid price didn’t go out of the weak market is that the plant operating rate is high, the export market is depressed and the supply pressure is too high.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of demand, the downstream procurement did not improve significantly. In November, nylon 66 market was depressed, and the downstream operating rate continued to decline, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has continued to decline since September. As of November 22, the decline was as high as 6% (as shown in the figure above). PA66 was close to There is still no improvement in the market in the future. The downturn in the downstream market of adipic acid is the decisive factor that makes it difficult for adipic acid to get out of the predicament.

III. future forecast

Adipic acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society think that adipic acid fluctuates in a narrow range, and the market is relatively weak. In the later stage, it is unlikely that the price will reverse. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we should pay attention to whether the downstream demand can follow up, and we expect that the market will continue to be weak in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average ex factory listing price of oil-based glycol in North China on November 15 was 4767 yuan / ton, down 1.38% from last week.

At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol single can in East China was 4515 yuan / ton, and on Friday it was 4735 yuan / ton, up 4.87% from the same period last week.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the total operating rate in China was 57.11%, of which the operating rate of non coal to glycol unit was about 60.24%, and the operating rate of coal to glycol unit was 52.69%, slightly down. The starting load of the downstream polyester plant is about 89.49%, maintaining a high level, and the proportion of production and sales is about 55%. As of Thursday, the main port of East China’s glycol port inventory was about 429600 tons, down 12.33% from Monday. Although the inventory decline is obvious, the delivery situation in recent days is not good. In the later stage, glycol is expected to reach 188000 tons at the port, increasing the risk of accumulation.

III. future forecast

Glycol analysts at the business news agency believe that manufacturers have made a slight correction to the ex factory price of glycol later this week, which shows that the market expectation has increased. At the same time, the market price in East China, which has been depressed for a long time, has also increased significantly. However, the purchase intention of the downstream polyester market is not strong, and it is mainly to digest inventory, so the daily delivery of glycol is at a low level. It is expected that the number of arrivals will increase in the later period, and the production of new devices in the medium and long term will suppress the price. Combined with the above factors, the market price of glycol is expected to remain stable for some time.

Price trend:

In recent January, the domestic market of dimethyl ether fell continuously, with a large range. On October 15, the average price of the domestic market of dimethyl ether was 3550 yuan / ton, and on November 15, the average price was 3066.67 yuan / ton, with a decline of 13.61% during the period. The price was 34.73% lower than the same period last year.

In September, it entered the traditional sales peak season of DME market, and the market opened the upward channel as expected. The price rose continuously from the beginning of September, with a rise of 23.26% on the 40th day, but “after a big rise, it will be accompanied by a big drop”. The peak season of “golden nine silver ten” has not passed, and the market of dimethyl ether has not been strong. Since October 16, the price has shown a continuous downward trend, and the market of dimethyl ether has experienced a “big drop” like the weather.

Since the middle of October, with the recovery of production of some plants shut down in the early stage, the market supply has increased, which makes the market with unbalanced supply and demand turn to oversupply, and the competition is gradually fierce. But on the demand side, the terminal demand is limited, the downstream receiving strength is not good, and just needs replenishment. In order to avoid the profit loss caused by the early purchase, most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude. The market transaction atmosphere is low, the inventory in Henan continues to accumulate, and under the double pressure of sales and inventory, the profit is continuously released for shipment, so the price is easy to fall and hard to rise. With the price falling to the current low, the seller is willing to hold the market. At present, although the decline has been slow, the market is lack of obvious positive support.

Comparison of price trend of methanol dimethyl ether liquefied gas on October 14-11-15, 2019:

It can be seen from the figure that in terms of raw materials, methanol market has declined in a weak way in recent January, with the trend of “a large dive”, followed by a small rebound and then a narrow adjustment. The price trend of dimethyl ether and methanol deviated from each other in stages, but the decline was almost the same. The inland and port of methanol declined to varying degrees. The port continued to be weak in the day, the futures market kept prices down, and spot buying maintained rigid demand. On the mainland market, the wait-and-see mentality is obvious. Some enterprises haven’t adjusted their prices yet, and the prices fall down due to poor trading in some regions. It is reported that the port price is low at present, and some goods flow back to Shandong, which to some extent suppresses the trend of the mainland market. In addition, the northwest guidance price has been adjusted this week, so we need to pay attention to the transmission to the mainland market.

In the aspect of civil gas, the trend of dimethyl ether and liquefied gas is declining as a whole, but the decline of liquefied gas is less than that of dimethyl ether. At present, the price difference of gas and ether in Henan Province is about 700-900 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is about 800 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong Province is about 800-900 yuan / ton. The trend of civil gas market in recent January shows a slight rebound after a continuous decline. International crude oil continues to decline. There are frequent arrivals from terminals to ships, and the market supply pressure is large. Although the terminal demand has increased in winter, the terminal demand for propane is greater than that for civil use. And with the arrival of the northern heating season in November, the demand in the north will turn weak. At present, the contradiction between domestic supply and demand has appeared. The main manufacturers in the region are not able to deliver goods continuously, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the market price of liquefied gas is falling one after another.

Future forecast:

Sun Yaolin, a business agency, believes that at present, methanol supply is abundant, traditional downstream demand remains weak, and some downstream starts are low due to environmental protection factors, which further weakens the demand. The short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by differential finishing, with partial or continuous decline. The liquefied gas market is dominated by narrow volatility, and the relatively sufficient supply restricts the price rise. The market of cost methanol and liquefied gas is weak, and the good is limited, so it is difficult to drive the rise of DME. In recent years, Henan xinlianxin has repeatedly implemented the minimum guarantee policy to protect the market price, but the transaction atmosphere has not improved significantly. The market price has been continuously reduced. Some enterprises have been on the edge of profit and loss. In addition, the environmental protection inspection in Henan has been strengthened, which affects the market mentality. Multiple negative factors are intertwined, and the DME market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of November 18, the average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 415 yuan / ton, slightly fluctuating compared with the price at the end of October.

II. Market analysis

Products: in winter, the phosphorus ore market has been operating at a low level. Just in the past week, the overall market of domestic phosphorus ore market has not recovered significantly, and the weak trend is still the same. Affected by environmental protection policies, the production of the mine is limited, new orders are still not traded, the enterprise’s starting rate is low, the overall supply of the factory is declining, and the mine and dealers are keeping more prices Status: the willingness of some enterprises to hold a firm price is obvious, and the prices of individual enterprises are high, and the actual transaction is low. As of November 18, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore shipboard in Hubei is around 440 yuan / ton, which is slightly lower. The price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore shipboard in Hubei is 390-400 yuan / ton; the price of 30% phosphate ore shipboard in Guizhou is around 340-430 yuan / ton, the price of 28% phosphate ore shipboard is around 330 yuan / ton, the price of 22% phosphate ore shipboard is around 150 yuan / ton; the price of 30% phosphate ore shipboard in Hebei is around 300 yuan / ton The ex factory quotation of phosphate rock is around 520 yuan / ton; the quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock in Guangxi is around 380 yuan / ton; the quotation of 26% high magnesium phosphate rock in Mabian is around 230 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of downstream Yellow Phosphorus market continues to be stable, and the new orders on the market are acceptable. The current new orders on the yellow phosphorus Market refer to 18400-18600 yuan / ton. Phosphoric acid market continues to be stable, with relatively cold trading. Enterprises maintain orders from old customers, with stable prices and average volume of new orders.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, the phosphorus ore market as a whole has entered the off-season. Affected by the limited production and limited quantity, the enterprise has more insured shipments. It is expected that the overall price of the phosphorus ore market will maintain stability in the near future, and there is little room for quotation adjustment.

I. price trend

This week (11.11-11.15), the price of 1 × antimony ingot in China was stable, and the domestic market price was 42000 yuan / ton.

On November 9, the antimony commodity index was 58.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.86% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 24.46% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

II. Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: antimony oxide remained stable with the trend of antimony ingot on Wednesday, and the transaction was light. As of Friday, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 37000 yuan / ton and 99.8% at 39250 yuan / ton.

Domestic market: this week’s antimony ingot Market is weak and consolidated, with limited market trading and low turnover. The downstream wait-and-see mood is strong. However, affected by the market atmosphere, most of them remain wait-and-see, with low purchase intention and seasonal downturn. As of Friday, the average price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingots is 41000 yuan / ton, 1 × antimony ingots is 41500 yuan / ton, 0 × antimony ingots is 42500 yuan / ton, and 2 × high bismuth antimony ingots is 39000 yuan / ton. The willingness of most large factories to hold up their prices is still strong. Most enterprises hold up their prices, and some small factories loose their prices, mainly to reduce the financial pressure.

Nonferrous Industry: this week’s data in Europe and the United States was lower than expected, the U.S. dollar index was high and volatile, and basic metals fell across the board under the pressure of short return.

III. future prospects

Next week, the US data is expected to be moderate, and the US dollar is expected to fall back at a high level. The domestic metal market will attract long-term delivery of spot goods. Under the condition of loose capital, support for base metal repair fell sharply this week, and some metal items that can be supported by the fundamentals are expected to recover. The spot antimony market is expected to wait and see next week.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of domestic potassium nitrate fluctuated and fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4362.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4337.50 yuan / ton, down 0.57%. The current price was 5.45% lower than last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic potassium nitrate market fluctuated and fell. In November, the recent domestic potassium fertilizer market showed no obvious signs of improvement. The trading atmosphere in the potassium nitrate Market was relatively light. The downstream maintained rigid purchase, and was in a stable period of consumption. The supply and demand were relatively stable, and the market was in a consolidation state. As a whole, the operating rate of potassium nitrate manufacturers is at a low level, so the overall inventory of potassium nitrate is at a low level, and there is no sales pressure for the time being. The downstream purchase volume is on the low side for a small amount of replenishment, and there is basically no stock up situation, and the price of potassium nitrate keeps fluctuating and falling. Domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 4200-4500 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

Potassium nitrate analyst of business association thinks: this week, the market of potassium nitrate fluctuates and falls, the supply of goods in the hands of traders is relatively sufficient, the potash fertilizer market has always been tepid and tepid, the downstream demand has not improved temporarily, it is expected that the demand of potassium nitrate will not change greatly in the short term, and the market may be in full swing.

I. trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell sharply in October, with the price at the beginning of the month at 12900 yuan / ton and the price at the end of the month at 11150 yuan / ton. The overall price at the end of the month was 13.57% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

II. Market analysis

Cost side: the price of raw material butadiene drops sharply, and the cost side drags down the market of Shunding

In October, the price of raw material butadiene fell sharply, dragging the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In October, the northern spot supply was abundant, and the downstream purchase was partial to Dandan, which led to the depressed market inquiry atmosphere. In addition, the butadiene market in the outer market declined due to the pressure of ocean shipping, and the overall atmosphere was mainly weak. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of raw butadiene in October was 11581 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9614 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 16.98% on the whole.

From the price comparison index chart, since October, with the sharp decline of butadiene and cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber prices, the price comparison index of both went down all the way. From the perspective of price trend comparison chart, the gap between the two price trends narrowed all the way, and the cost pressure of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber gradually eased.

Supply side: a slight reduction in the supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber forms a certain support for the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber

On the one hand, Sinopec and PetroChina plants started to operate normally, on the other hand, Yantai Haopu and Qixiang Tengda plants continued to shut down, Zhejiang ChuanHua low load production, overall, the supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in October was further reduced slightly compared with that in September.

Demand side: the overall procurement of the downstream is weak in October

In the early period of national day and early October, affected by environmental protection, the domestic tire operating rate declined. After the national day, the tire operating rate gradually picked up, but the overall operating rate is still below 70%, and the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is still weak. According to the business news agency, as of October 25, the operating rate of all steel tire and half steel tire in China had risen to 65.4% and 67.45% respectively.

III. future prospects

Business analysts believe that the upstream raw material butadiene price fell sharply, while the downstream tire operating rate is still below 70%, which is insufficient support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. Overall, the cis-4-polybutadiene rubber price will present a weak consolidation pattern in the later period.