The market price of cis-1-polybutadiene rubber fell sharply in October (10.1-10.31)

I. trend analysis


According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell sharply in October, with the price at the beginning of the month at 12900 yuan / ton and the price at the end of the month at 11150 yuan / ton. The overall price at the end of the month was 13.57% lower than that at the beginning of the month.


II. Market analysis


Cost side: the price of raw material butadiene drops sharply, and the cost side drags down the market of Shunding


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In October, the price of raw material butadiene fell sharply, dragging the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In October, the northern spot supply was abundant, and the downstream purchase was partial to Dandan, which led to the depressed market inquiry atmosphere. In addition, the butadiene market in the outer market declined due to the pressure of ocean shipping, and the overall atmosphere was mainly weak. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of raw butadiene in October was 11581 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9614 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 16.98% on the whole.


From the price comparison index chart, since October, with the sharp decline of butadiene and cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber prices, the price comparison index of both went down all the way. From the perspective of price trend comparison chart, the gap between the two price trends narrowed all the way, and the cost pressure of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber gradually eased.


Supply side: a slight reduction in the supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber forms a certain support for the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber


On the one hand, Sinopec and PetroChina plants started to operate normally, on the other hand, Yantai Haopu and Qixiang Tengda plants continued to shut down, Zhejiang ChuanHua low load production, overall, the supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in October was further reduced slightly compared with that in September.


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Demand side: the overall procurement of the downstream is weak in October


In the early period of national day and early October, affected by environmental protection, the domestic tire operating rate declined. After the national day, the tire operating rate gradually picked up, but the overall operating rate is still below 70%, and the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is still weak. According to the business news agency, as of October 25, the operating rate of all steel tire and half steel tire in China had risen to 65.4% and 67.45% respectively.


III. future prospects


Business analysts believe that the upstream raw material butadiene price fell sharply, while the downstream tire operating rate is still below 70%, which is insufficient support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. Overall, the cis-4-polybutadiene rubber price will present a weak consolidation pattern in the later period.

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