This week (2.17-2.21) the price of NBR continued to be weak. According to the monitoring, the price at the beginning of the week was 15800 yuan / ton, and the price of NBR at the end of the week was 15733 yuan / ton, slightly down 0.42%.

From the aspect of raw materials, the price of raw materials is low, and the cost is negative in the face of NBR: according to the understanding of the business community, the ex factory price of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile is all the way down due to the fall of crude oil price, and as of February 21, the price of butadiene is 6393 yuan / ton; the price of acrylonitrile Sinopec Chemical Sales North China and East China company is reduced to 9500 yuan / ton in February.

From the perspective of NBR enterprises, the overall operating rate of NBR enterprises has declined, some of the prices of NBR are stable, and most of them are not quoted. According to the business agency, the NBR unit of Lanzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates normally, with stable ex factory price. At present, n41e reports 15000 yuan / ton, 3305e reports 15500 yuan / ton, and 3308e reports 15600 yuan / ton. During the shutdown of shunze NBR unit in Ningbo, the main market price of NBR 3355 is 15000-15400 yuan / ton. Nandi NBR unit operates normally, and the main market price of NBR 1052 is 16300-16800 yuan / ton.

In terms of the downstream, at present, the resumption of work in the downstream is still slow. In addition, the traffic has not yet fully recovered, the delivery of NBR is not ideal, and the procurement strength in the downstream is weak, which has a strong negative effect on NBR.

Outlook for the future

According to the NBR analysts of the business agency, the sharp decline in the price of raw materials and the overall low price of goods in the industry have formed a negative situation for NBR, and it is expected that the NBR market will maintain a slight weak situation in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of domestic potassium nitrate was slightly higher this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4337.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4350.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.29%. The current price was 3.06% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market was slightly explored. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the potassium nitrate enterprises are in the process of resumption. Now, Wentong potash Group Co., Ltd., Wenshui Zhenxing chemical fertilizer Co., Ltd. and Jiaocheng County Hesheng Chemical Co., Ltd. have resumed their work. The domestic and imported supply of potassium chloride in the upstream is sufficient, and the current price is stable. To support the cost of potassium nitrate, the trading atmosphere of potassium nitrate Market is fair, the downstream maintains just need to purchase, and the market of potassium nitrate is slightly explored. Domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 4200-4500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium nitrate analysts of the business association think: this week, the market of potassium nitrate is slightly up, potassium chloride is relatively stable as a whole, and the price fluctuation is not big. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will be consolidated in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market fell slightly this week, down 1.19% as of Friday, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: affected by high inventory and low downstream operating rate, the price of toluene in domestic market continues to bottom out this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5100 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the overall international oil price this week showed a shock rebound trend. As of Friday, Brent rose 4.07% at sight, Brent futures rose 2.03%, WTI futures rose 2.20%, and Dubai futures rose 0.31%.

On the downstream side, in terms of TDI, the current external market is about US $660 / T FOB Ara. Domestic enterprises have not yet returned to work and have not yet made a quotation. It is expected that the future TDI market will follow suit. In PX market, the domestic market price this week is about 6300 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about 717 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 737 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will maintain a stable trend next week.

 
3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch said: continue to focus on the trend of crude oil next week. In general, with the return to work of the enterprise approaching, the superimposed crude oil price takes the lead in stabilizing and rebounding. It is expected that the toluene market will experience a small shock and rebound trend next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of asphalt is stable this week, and the price of asphalt is reported to be 3420 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the international crude oil is running at a low level this week, with a large fluctuation range. The operating rate of asphalt plants in refineries has dropped to a low level. At present, the asphalt market is in the off-season stage, and the epidemic situation has little impact on the asphalt market. This week, the asphalt market is stable.

Industrial chain: the international crude oil market is also affected by China’s epidemic situation. At present, China’s crude oil demand is severely suppressed, and the demand growth is relatively limited. At the same time, Russia’s attitude on deepening production reduction is not clear, and the crude oil market has doubts about the implementation of real production reduction. This week, the international oil price is running at a low level, with a large fluctuation range.

Asphalt Market: affected by the epidemic situation, the asphalt market is restricted by the macro environment, the resumption of terminal projects is not ideal, and there are certain restrictions on logistics and transportation. The overall delivery situation of the refinery is poor. Under the pressure of increasing inventory, the operating rate of the refinery continues to decline. At present, the asphalt market is still in a state of price or no market. At present, the overall performance of the asphalt market is weak supply and demand, and the price performance of the asphalt market is average.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at business club, believes that: the price of international crude oil market has fallen to a low level, but it is the off-season of asphalt market demand at present. In addition, the resumption of terminal projects is not ideal, and it is expected that the market price of asphalt will maintain stable operation in a short time.