1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market is still strong this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2187 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 2262 yuan / ton, up 3.43% in the week, and the price rose 6.72% month on month, down 0.07% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic methanol market presents regional market, and each region adjusts its price according to its own supply and demand and downstream stock up rhythm. During the week, Guanzhong, Hebei and other places increased significantly, while Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shandong and other places showed weak trend. At present, the mainland stock up is close to the end, and the downstream inventory is high. The trend of the port is strong, methanol futures are up and down, and the trading focus of East China and South China continues to rise. Due to the cold wave and the shortage of natural gas in Iran, the local government has comprehensively suspended and reduced the supply of raw materials for natural gas methanol in Iran in order to protect the people’s livelihood, including the shutdown of ZPC, Kaveh and Marjan units, and the commencement of KPC and FPC dropped to 70-80%. This week’s methanol port inventory decreased, with a total inventory of 787000 tons in East and South China, down 60600 tons from last week.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market is in a downturn. On the enterprise side, the offer is temporarily stable, the upstream methanol market is high, and the cost is good. However, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the downstream market has been shut down, the market trading is light, and the actual single transaction is reduced. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the demand side is becoming more and more light, and the remaining formaldehyde enterprises will stop work after the inventory is full. It is expected that the formaldehyde market will run steadily next week.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market rose significantly this week. Near the end of the year, the soaring raw material methanol gave acetic acid cost support. At present, the social inventory of domestic acetic acid is relatively low, and the downstream stock was more active before the year, which promoted the smooth transaction and purchase in the market. The dual support of acetic acid market cost and supply led to the continuous increase of transactions. The rising trend gradually attracts the downstream purchase and stock up increment. The failure of Tianjin Soda Plant Equipment aggravates the market supply tension, with the most obvious increase in the North China market. The market in East China is relatively sufficient, with limited overall growth and smooth market transactions. Due to the overall shortage of spot goods of Henan suppliers in Central China and the active purchase and stock up in the lower reaches, the market in Central China continued to rise slightly and was optimistic. However, due to the scattered and small downstream demand in South China market, the market has not been able to follow the rising trend, and the supplier maintains that small orders are mainly for fixed customers, and the market is relatively stable.

Dimethyl ether: the atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether transaction was active this week, and the transaction price continued to rise. At present, the operating rate of dimethyl ether in domestic market is low, about 15.13%, down 0.06%, down 0.39%. Shandong Yuhuang and some enterprises in Hebei continued to park, the market supply decreased, and the market pressure on goods appropriately eased; in addition, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the intention of terminal goods preparation strengthened. Even though there is a downward trend in the price of liquefied gas, the price difference between gas and ether is still large, and the intention of terminal purchase of DME is quite high. Some mainstream enterprises have low inventory and limited sales, and the price of DME continues to rise.

3、 Future forecast

Business community view: on the positive side, the procurement volume of olefins in Northwest China is quite considerable, with stable long-term implementation and low inventory of most manufacturers in Northwest China; in January, the international methanol plant maintenance was centralized, with an estimated import arrival of 900000 tons; because of the cold wave, Iran’s natural gas shortage, the local government has suspended and reduced the supply of raw materials of natural gas methanol in Iran in an all-round way to protect the people’s livelihood. In terms of bad news, the southwest natural gas methanol plant was restarted in the middle and late of January; the output of new methanol plants in the northwest was released; some olefin plants in the port, northwest and Shandong issued the first quarter maintenance plan, such as Yangmei Hengtong, Zhejiang Xingxing, etc.; some enterprises in the Northwest were not in place. At present, most of the methanol plants have completed the pre-sale before the Spring Festival, and the downstream is also fully stocked. The methanol analyst of the business association predicted that near the end of the year, the domestic vehicles for hazardous chemicals will be shut down in succession, the methanol trade will also be stopped, the market participants will be delisted in succession, and the methanol market will show a pattern of whether there is a price or not. After the festival, the volume of imported goods is expected to shrink, and the North-South arbitrage window is opened, focusing on the market situation of methanol after the year.

This week (1.13-1.17), the price of NBR is stable, with a price of 16200 yuan / ton.

Low price of raw butadiene

The price of raw materials is low, the support strength of cost surface is weakened: the price of butadiene is low, the support for NBR is weakened. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene at the beginning of the week was 8112 yuan / ton, while that at the end of the week was 8084 yuan / ton, slightly down 0.35%.

Stable ex factory price of petrochemicals

The unit of NBR manufacturer in China is in normal operation, the factory price of NBR is stable, and the overall operation rate of NBR unit is around 70%. According to the business agency, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 65000 T / a unit is in normal operation. This week, the factory price of Lanhua NBR is stable. At present, n41e reports 15000 yuan / ton, 3305e reports 15500 yuan / ton, and 3308e reports 15600 yuan / ton.

Downstream inquiry on demand

The demand of the downstream plant of NBR is weak, and the demand inquiry for NBR is more on demand, so the overall NBR market is relatively weak and stable.

Outlook for the future

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business club, believes that on the one hand, the price of raw materials is low, on the other hand, the transaction is light near the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the NBR market will maintain a weak and stable position in the later period.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, this week’s domestic bromine market was weak and stable, with weak market supply and demand. The average price of bromine remained at about 30444 yuan / ton, down 12.39% from the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: at present, most bromine production enterprises in China have entered the parking period. The industry is in a low negative operation as a whole, and the spot market supply is tight. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the market is soft in trading and investment, the overall market supply and demand are weak, and the price is stable. At present, the enterprise’s quotation is maintained between 29500-31000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the downstream flame retardant market is close to the Spring Festival, the market is slightly depressed, and the trading atmosphere in the industry is flat; the pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates and other industries are on the low side, and the overall impact on bromine price is negative.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of business association, near the Spring Festival holiday, the overall supply and demand of bromine chemical industry in China are weak, and some downstream enterprises rely on imported bromine to maintain production. At present, the price trend is relatively stable, and it is expected that the bromine price will maintain stable operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average factory price of light potash in China this week is 6325.00 yuan / ton, including tax. The current price is down 9.32% year on year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the market of potash market was low consolidation. Affected by the approaching of Spring Festival, the market of potash market was not warm, the trading atmosphere was cold, and the demand side was weak, resulting in the low consolidation of potash price. The actual turnover of the market is relatively general, while the plant operating rate of the manufacturer is at a low level, the overall inventory is at a low level, the purchasing market momentum is general, and the domestic potassium carbonate market is volatile and consolidated. According to the statistics of the business agency: in January, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6600 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

Potash analysts of the business association believe that this week’s potash market is low consolidation, holidays are approaching, trading market activity is low, and potash manufacturers have a negative attitude. In the short term, potash prices may mainly be consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of PA66 in the second week of January was stable and stable, with relatively low prices. As of January 10, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 23025.00 yuan / ton, which is 0.20% lower than the average price at the beginning of the week.

Analysis of influencing factors:

The market of adipic acid in the upper reaches of PA66 has remained stable this week, with little change in prices in most regions, and some of them have been raised. Basically speaking, the supply pressure is not reduced and the demand is not changed much, which is the main factor that puzzles the adipic acid to get out of the weak situation. The improvement of the cost side does not bring a rebound in the market of adipic acid in the lower reaches, but aggravates the dilemma of enterprise profit contraction. At present, the demand of adipic acid downstream is still not improving, and there is no peak of purchasing season before the Spring Festival in the downstream. In addition, the social inventory pressure has not been alleviated, the market has not reversed the upward momentum, and the enterprise inventory and market inventory still maintain a high level, which is closely related to the current low demand and low procurement, which is also an important reason why the adipic acid price did not continue the rebound Market at the end of December last year. In terms of region: the price in East China and South China market is still low, and some dealers have stopped rising. Even though some dealers have a tentative surge, the range is limited to 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, from the perspective of upstream cost, although pure benzene has ended the rising pattern, it is still at a high level. As of January 10, the rise and fall of pure benzene in this month is 0%, but the transmission effect of high cost is restrained by the weak downstream demand, which does not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. On the contrary, with the rising price of pure benzene, the profits of adipic acid manufacturers are compressed. At the same time Suffering from weak demand, prices have not improved, which confirms the extremely weak market situation; this week, PA66 market is still dominated by sideways consolidation. On the supply side, the spot market is still abundant. The operating rate of downstream factories continued to decline, and there was no centralized stocking behavior in the downstream before the festival. The overall purchasing power is not strong, and the strategy of “just need to take delivery” is often adopted. As the terminal market is still weak, the atmosphere in the market is quiet, and the mentality of the industry hasn’t changed, most orders are flexible.

Future forecast:

Business analysts think: January domestic PA66 market sideways consolidation. Although the weak demand of adipic acid in the upstream continues, the price tends to be stable near the pre Festival period, which has limited support for PA66 cost side. There is no improvement in the enthusiasm of downstream stock up, and the strategy of just need to take the goods as the main strategy. The market atmosphere is quiet, the industry’s wait-and-see mentality is heavy, and the operation is limited. It is expected that PA66 will continue to run horizontally in the near future.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was 4833.33 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average price was 4800 yuan / ton, with a decline of 0.69% in the week. The price was 12.94% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic liquefied gas market rose first and then fell this week, with a general trading atmosphere. As of January 10. The price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4700 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4830 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4600 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4750 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4650 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Sinopec The factory price of Luoyang Petrochemical LPG is 4750 yuan / ton.

This week, China’s LPG prices were mixed. The northern market as a whole rose first and then fell, while the southern market mainly fell. In the early stage, with the boost of broad rise in international crude oil, the overall LPG market rose and the price rose to a high level. However, with the price rising, the terminal demand is limited, the terminal inventory is basically above the middle level, the enthusiasm of the downstream market is not high, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is obviously weakened. In addition, the international crude oil width was lowered in the late week, which affected liquefied gas, mainly downward.

Saudi Aramco’s January CP reported a sharp rise in both propylene and butane. Propane rose to $565 / T, up $125 / T from last month, and butane to $590 / T, up $135 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 6 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are methanol (5.24%), fuel oil (3.70%) and dimethyl ether (2.05%). There are 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are LNG (- 6.45%), WTI (- 5.54%) and Brent (- 4.71%). This week’s average was – 0.69%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LPG analyst of Business Club: at present, the international crude oil reserves have a certain support for the LPG market. With the Spring Festival approaching, the storage, discharge and storage demand of manufacturers, if there is no obvious positive in the short term, there is still a possibility of lowering.

Commodity index: on January 10, 2020, the polyaluminium chloride commodity index was 101.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.61% from the highest point of 109.01 (2019-08-28) in the cycle, and up 0.89% from the lowest point of 100.90 on December 19, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on January 1, 2020, the mainstream market price of polyaluminium chloride (fixed, content ≥ 28%) is about 1833.33 yuan / ton, and on January 10, the mainstream market price is 1833.33 yuan / ton, which is stable this month.

Price quotation: the main monitoring manufacturers of the business agency have stable quotation in the domestic polyaluminium chloride market since January. According to the monitoring data of the commodity by the business agency (100ppi. Com), the main quotation range of the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is mainly concentrated in: the quotation with tax of 1800-2200 yuan / ton for polyaluminium chloride solid (industrial level, content ≥ 28%), and 380-450 yuan / ton for liquid (industrial level, content 10% – 12%).

Upstream: in the first ten days of January 2020, the main quotation of hydrochloric acid in the domestic market fluctuated and decreased, with the quotation of 253.33 yuan / ton on the first day and 243.33 yuan / ton on the 10th day, with a drop of about 3.95%.

Downstream: in winter, the construction of water treatment project is relatively small, and the downstream procurement has a great impact. At present, it has entered the coldest three or nine days of the year. The Spring Festival is not far away, and the construction ushers in the most slack season.

Manufacturer: from December 19, 2019 to January 10, 2020, Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, received the notice of production suspension, all of them were shut down, and the manufacturer had sufficient stock. The vehicles under the fifth five year plan were shut down, and the freight cost increased. The manufacturer’s quotation was increased by 50 yuan / ton at first, and then some of its sub manufacturers were reduced due to weak demand.

Industry:

1. In late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution status and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production before acceptance, and can resume production after scheduling or acceptance according to the office.

2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance.

3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal.

4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

5. From the beginning of January to the 10th, 2020, Gongyi water treatment related enterprises in the main production area of Henan province did not start production, but continued to stop production. It is reported that local environmental protection often inspected, and the manufacturer’s inventory is sufficient.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the demand for the Spring Festival holiday is light and the supply of goods is sufficient; the manufacturer is in the period of production suspension and the upstream hydrochloric acid price has little impact. From the perspective of trend, the cost support of polyaluminium chloride is insufficient, the downstream demand is weak, and it is expected that the market will be stable in the future.

On January 8, WTI crude oil futures market fell to US $59.61/barrel, or US $3.09, while Brent crude oil futures fell to US $65.44/barrel, or US $2.83. The main reason was Trump’s public speech, which eased the worries about the escalation of the US Iraq conflict. Combined with the unexpected increase of EIA crude oil inventory in the US this week, the decline of crude oil rapidly expanded.

“As long as I am still the president of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have nuclear weapons,” Trump said in a national speech at the White House at about 11 a.m. local time on May 8

Trump said that the United States does not have to respond militarily to Iran’s attack on the U.S. military base in Iraq. Iran’s attack is in retaliation for the U.S. bombing of Iranian commander Sulaimani on January 3, and did not cause casualties when Iran attacked the U.S. air base in Iraq.

Turning to the issue of Middle East oil, trump said in his speech that after taking office, the United States has achieved energy independence and is the world’s largest oil and gas producer, “without Middle East oil”. At the end of the speech, trump said that the United States is ready to embrace peace.

This led to a big shock in the global financial market and a rapid fall in the price of international crude oil.

In addition, the EIA announced that U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 1.164 million barrels to 431 million barrels in the week ended January 3, recording an increase after two consecutive weeks of decline, with the market predicting a decrease of 4.064 million barrels. WTI crude oil fell more after the data was released.

According to the business community, despite the temporary release of easing signals from the US Iraq conflict, the conflict still exists and the direction of the situation is uncertain. Therefore, in the short term, crude oil will continue to fluctuate broadly.

1、 Price data

As of December 27, the average price of domestic mainstream fuel oil distribution is 4558.00 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with 4558.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

On December 27, the fuel oil commodity index was 92.31, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.36% from the highest point of 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and up 100.33% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: domestic fuel oil shipments this week are average, and the actual transaction price is about 4550 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the monitoring of business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States was 60.44 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 61.68 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down 2.05%; Brent crude oil was 66.14 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 67.92 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down 2.69%. At present, the trade relations between China and the United States have eased, the global economic slowdown concerns have subsided, and OPEC countries will continue to reduce production.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 51st week of 2019 (12.23-12.27), there are nine commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which the top three commodities are liquefied gas (3.12%), Brent crude oil (2.69%) and petroleum coke (2.08%). There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top two products falling are LNG (- 6.30%) and methanol (- 0.85%). This week’s average was 0.27%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of the business club believe that the international crude oil continues to rise this week, the domestic ship fuel market is generally traded, the ship fuel tax resources are tight, the ship fuel market as a whole maintains stable operation, and the downstream market is mostly stable to wait and see. It is expected that the fuel oil market price will be stable in the near future, or around 4550 yuan / ton.