1、 Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market is still strong this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2187 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 2262 yuan / ton, up 3.43% in the week, and the price rose 6.72% month on month, down 0.07% year on year.
2、 Market analysis
Product: this week, the domestic methanol market presents regional market, and each region adjusts its price according to its own supply and demand and downstream stock up rhythm. During the week, Guanzhong, Hebei and other places increased significantly, while Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shandong and other places showed weak trend. At present, the mainland stock up is close to the end, and the downstream inventory is high. The trend of the port is strong, methanol futures are up and down, and the trading focus of East China and South China continues to rise. Due to the cold wave and the shortage of natural gas in Iran, the local government has comprehensively suspended and reduced the supply of raw materials for natural gas methanol in Iran in order to protect the people’s livelihood, including the shutdown of ZPC, Kaveh and Marjan units, and the commencement of KPC and FPC dropped to 70-80%. This week’s methanol port inventory decreased, with a total inventory of 787000 tons in East and South China, down 60600 tons from last week.
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Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market is in a downturn. On the enterprise side, the offer is temporarily stable, the upstream methanol market is high, and the cost is good. However, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the downstream market has been shut down, the market trading is light, and the actual single transaction is reduced. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the demand side is becoming more and more light, and the remaining formaldehyde enterprises will stop work after the inventory is full. It is expected that the formaldehyde market will run steadily next week.
Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market rose significantly this week. Near the end of the year, the soaring raw material methanol gave acetic acid cost support. At present, the social inventory of domestic acetic acid is relatively low, and the downstream stock was more active before the year, which promoted the smooth transaction and purchase in the market. The dual support of acetic acid market cost and supply led to the continuous increase of transactions. The rising trend gradually attracts the downstream purchase and stock up increment. The failure of Tianjin Soda Plant Equipment aggravates the market supply tension, with the most obvious increase in the North China market. The market in East China is relatively sufficient, with limited overall growth and smooth market transactions. Due to the overall shortage of spot goods of Henan suppliers in Central China and the active purchase and stock up in the lower reaches, the market in Central China continued to rise slightly and was optimistic. However, due to the scattered and small downstream demand in South China market, the market has not been able to follow the rising trend, and the supplier maintains that small orders are mainly for fixed customers, and the market is relatively stable.
Dimethyl ether: the atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether transaction was active this week, and the transaction price continued to rise. At present, the operating rate of dimethyl ether in domestic market is low, about 15.13%, down 0.06%, down 0.39%. Shandong Yuhuang and some enterprises in Hebei continued to park, the market supply decreased, and the market pressure on goods appropriately eased; in addition, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the intention of terminal goods preparation strengthened. Even though there is a downward trend in the price of liquefied gas, the price difference between gas and ether is still large, and the intention of terminal purchase of DME is quite high. Some mainstream enterprises have low inventory and limited sales, and the price of DME continues to rise.
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3、 Future forecast
Business community view: on the positive side, the procurement volume of olefins in Northwest China is quite considerable, with stable long-term implementation and low inventory of most manufacturers in Northwest China; in January, the international methanol plant maintenance was centralized, with an estimated import arrival of 900000 tons; because of the cold wave, Iran’s natural gas shortage, the local government has suspended and reduced the supply of raw materials of natural gas methanol in Iran in an all-round way to protect the people’s livelihood. In terms of bad news, the southwest natural gas methanol plant was restarted in the middle and late of January; the output of new methanol plants in the northwest was released; some olefin plants in the port, northwest and Shandong issued the first quarter maintenance plan, such as Yangmei Hengtong, Zhejiang Xingxing, etc.; some enterprises in the Northwest were not in place. At present, most of the methanol plants have completed the pre-sale before the Spring Festival, and the downstream is also fully stocked. The methanol analyst of the business association predicted that near the end of the year, the domestic vehicles for hazardous chemicals will be shut down in succession, the methanol trade will also be stopped, the market participants will be delisted in succession, and the methanol market will show a pattern of whether there is a price or not. After the festival, the volume of imported goods is expected to shrink, and the North-South arbitrage window is opened, focusing on the market situation of methanol after the year.