1、 Price data
As of December 27, the average price of domestic mainstream fuel oil distribution is 4558.00 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with 4558.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.
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On December 27, the fuel oil commodity index was 92.31, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.36% from the highest point of 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and up 100.33% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: domestic fuel oil shipments this week are average, and the actual transaction price is about 4550 yuan / ton.
Industry chain: according to the monitoring of business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States was 60.44 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 61.68 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down 2.05%; Brent crude oil was 66.14 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 67.92 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down 2.69%. At present, the trade relations between China and the United States have eased, the global economic slowdown concerns have subsided, and OPEC countries will continue to reduce production.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 51st week of 2019 (12.23-12.27), there are nine commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which the top three commodities are liquefied gas (3.12%), Brent crude oil (2.69%) and petroleum coke (2.08%). There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top two products falling are LNG (- 6.30%) and methanol (- 0.85%). This week’s average was 0.27%.
3、 Future forecast
Energy analysts of the business club believe that the international crude oil continues to rise this week, the domestic ship fuel market is generally traded, the ship fuel tax resources are tight, the ship fuel market as a whole maintains stable operation, and the downstream market is mostly stable to wait and see. It is expected that the fuel oil market price will be stable in the near future, or around 4550 yuan / ton.