The price trend of phenol in the June market is clear, with prices remaining relatively stable at the beginning and end. At the beginning of the month, the market remained stable, with a benchmark price of about 7380 yuan/ton, and downstream only had immediate demand for goods. In the first half of the month, top refining companies concentrated on raising prices and raising listing prices, driving the sentiment of spot trading to recover. Prices quickly surged to a high of 7800 yuan/ton for the month, and market trading was briefly active.
After the price surged, there was insufficient upward momentum, and the market continued to decline in the middle and late stages. High prices have suppressed downstream procurement, coupled with the gradual easing of market supply, leading to multiple companies lowering their quotations. As of June 29th, the market benchmark price has fallen back to 7500 yuan/ton, and the spot reference price is 7450 yuan/ton, falling back to the core range at the beginning of the month, with a slight increase of 0.95% for the whole month and limited overall volatility.
1. Price increase in the first ten days: Manufacturers raise prices+slight cost support
The price increase in the first half of the year was mainly due to the rise in enterprise prices and slight cost support. At the beginning of the month, the partial maintenance of the phenol ketone unit caused a temporary shortage of supply, resulting in low factory inventory and strong willingness to raise prices. At the same time, the stabilization of upstream pure benzene prices, coupled with the demand for repairing oversold market conditions in the early stage, has driven phenol prices to rise temporarily.
2. Mid to late term decline: loose supply+weak terminal demand
In the second half of the year, the market reversed and declined, with the core being the weakening of the supply and demand pattern. On the supply side, the early maintenance equipment has resumed work, the industry’s operating rate has rebounded, coupled with the release of new production capacity, the supply of goods continues to be loose, and inventory slowly accumulates, completely dispelling the previous tight supply.
The weak points in the off-season on the demand side are highlighted, with downstream industries such as bisphenol A and phenolic resin having low production and high finished product inventory, only maintaining essential replenishment without centralized stocking support. High prices further suppress the enthusiasm for purchasing goods, resulting in sluggish market transactions and traders offering discounts to sell their goods. Combined with the weakening of pure benzene prices within the month, cost support has become ineffective, accelerating the correction of phenol prices.
Overall, the phenol market in June showed a pattern of weak cost support, sufficient supply, and weak demand. Short term device maintenance and enterprise price increases have formed a slight positive trend, but the negative effects of low demand and loose supply during the off-season dominate, ultimately leading to a surge and a decline in the market. The overall market resilience is still acceptable, with no significant unilateral decline and only maintaining range oscillation.
The weak pattern of the short-term phenol market is difficult to change, with high production and sufficient supply on the supply side, sustained off-season effects on the demand side, and difficulty in downstream production recovery, resulting in a lack of upward momentum in the market. It is expected that the market will maintain a narrow range fluctuation of 7400-7600 yuan/ton in the future. The focus in the future will be on the price of pure benzene, the dynamic maintenance of main equipment, and the progress of downstream resumption of work, which will dominate the subsequent market trend.