1、 Price trend
On July 17th, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong was referenced at 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan/ton or 11.54% compared to July 1st (reference price of cyclohexanone was 7800 yuan/ton).
In early July (7.1-7.17), the overall market situation of cyclohexanone in Shandong showed a steady upward trend, with the center of gravity of the cyclohexanone market gradually approaching high levels and the low-end prices in the market continuously decreasing. As of July 17th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong is around 8650-8900 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Tightening on the supply side: At the beginning of the month, some domestic cyclohexanone equipment was undergoing centralized maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the circulation of cyclohexanone market supply and a contraction in spot circulation. Some major factories were operating at low loads, and the available inventory in the market continued to decrease. Traders’ reluctance to sell increased, and they actively pushed up prices. The overall tightening of the supply side supports the upward trend of the market.
Rising raw material costs: Upstream pure benzene prices are strengthening synchronously, leading to an increase in production costs. Factories have a strong willingness to raise prices and keep up with the trend, forming support on the cost side.
Downstream demand is gradually recovering: downstream coatings PU、 The procurement of adipic acid has recovered to some extent, and there has been an increase in low price restocking behavior. The market trading atmosphere has improved, and the demand for adipic acid has supported the spot price.
Market sentiment boost: The low-level consolidation period in the early stage is relatively long, and there is an expectation of a rebound in the market; Stockholders’ inventory is low, bullish sentiment is concentrated and released, and the market is gradually rising.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the trading atmosphere in the Shandong cyclohexanone market is mild, and effective support within the market is still acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, the Shandong cyclohexanone market will mainly operate at a high level of consolidation. More attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as cost side news.

The price trend of phenol in the June market is clear, with prices remaining relatively stable at the beginning and end. At the beginning of the month, the market remained stable, with a benchmark price of about 7380 yuan/ton, and downstream only had immediate demand for goods. In the first half of the month, top refining companies concentrated on raising prices and raising listing prices, driving the sentiment of spot trading to recover. Prices quickly surged to a high of 7800 yuan/ton for the month, and market trading was briefly active.
After the price surged, there was insufficient upward momentum, and the market continued to decline in the middle and late stages. High prices have suppressed downstream procurement, coupled with the gradual easing of market supply, leading to multiple companies lowering their quotations. As of June 29th, the market benchmark price has fallen back to 7500 yuan/ton, and the spot reference price is 7450 yuan/ton, falling back to the core range at the beginning of the month, with a slight increase of 0.95% for the whole month and limited overall volatility.
1. Price increase in the first ten days: Manufacturers raise prices+slight cost support
The price increase in the first half of the year was mainly due to the rise in enterprise prices and slight cost support. At the beginning of the month, the partial maintenance of the phenol ketone unit caused a temporary shortage of supply, resulting in low factory inventory and strong willingness to raise prices. At the same time, the stabilization of upstream pure benzene prices, coupled with the demand for repairing oversold market conditions in the early stage, has driven phenol prices to rise temporarily.
2. Mid to late term decline: loose supply+weak terminal demand
In the second half of the year, the market reversed and declined, with the core being the weakening of the supply and demand pattern. On the supply side, the early maintenance equipment has resumed work, the industry’s operating rate has rebounded, coupled with the release of new production capacity, the supply of goods continues to be loose, and inventory slowly accumulates, completely dispelling the previous tight supply.
The weak points in the off-season on the demand side are highlighted, with downstream industries such as bisphenol A and phenolic resin having low production and high finished product inventory, only maintaining essential replenishment without centralized stocking support. High prices further suppress the enthusiasm for purchasing goods, resulting in sluggish market transactions and traders offering discounts to sell their goods. Combined with the weakening of pure benzene prices within the month, cost support has become ineffective, accelerating the correction of phenol prices.
Overall, the phenol market in June showed a pattern of weak cost support, sufficient supply, and weak demand. Short term device maintenance and enterprise price increases have formed a slight positive trend, but the negative effects of low demand and loose supply during the off-season dominate, ultimately leading to a surge and a decline in the market. The overall market resilience is still acceptable, with no significant unilateral decline and only maintaining range oscillation.
The weak pattern of the short-term phenol market is difficult to change, with high production and sufficient supply on the supply side, sustained off-season effects on the demand side, and difficulty in downstream production recovery, resulting in a lack of upward momentum in the market. It is expected that the market will maintain a narrow range fluctuation of 7400-7600 yuan/ton in the future. The focus in the future will be on the price of pure benzene, the dynamic maintenance of main equipment, and the progress of downstream resumption of work, which will dominate the subsequent market trend.