Price trend

In March, the domestic PA6 market continued to decline, with most spot prices dropping. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of March 27th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14775 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -2.64% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has gradually declined this month. The price of raw material pure benzene first rose and then fell, and the impact of cost support weakened. In terms of supply, enterprises started at a high level within the month, and inventory levels continued to rise. The caprolactam market has sufficient supply, limited downstream demand, and weak market trading. The cost support of caprolactam for PA6 has weakened.

In terms of supply: In March, the load of PA6 production enterprises remained generally stable, with an average operating rate of around 83%. The market supply remained stable and there was ample supply of goods within the month. The inventory level has flattened horizontally, and although the supply pressure has not increased significantly, the overall support for PA6 spot is average.

In terms of demand: Downstream, there has been an improvement in the operating conditions of the main downstream industries in March. The operating rate of spinning has increased to around 84%, while the weaving load is around 72%, showing a significant improvement overall compared to the beginning of the month. However, due to the gradual decline in the price of PA6 within the month, downstream enterprises have a poor willingness to stock up and a wait-and-see attitude towards the decline. Be cautious in trading on the exchange. Limited support for PA6 demand side.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market continued to decline in March. The price of caprolactam has been weakening, weakening its support for the cost side of PA6. Domestic polymerization plants have a large and stable load, while terminal enterprises need to stock up and purchase with caution. There is currently a lack of bullish news on the market, and it is expected that the PA6 market may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan Province has been lowered this week. On March 24th, the average market price in Henan Province was 7550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 7600 yuan/ton on March 18th, a decrease of 0.66%, and a month on month decrease of 0.98%.

This week, the ice crystal market has been consolidating and declining, and enterprise ice crystal quotations have been lowered. Upstream raw material fluorite mines face difficulties in starting production, and fluorite enterprises have tight spot prices. However, prices are still at a relatively high level in the fluorite industry, which still has an impact on the cost pressure of cryolite. Most cryolite manufacturers mainly offer stable prices, while some enterprises have reduced their actual transaction prices to promote shipments and downstream resistance to high priced cryolite. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and downstream enterprises follow up on demand, and the cryolite market is observing and consolidating. As of March 24th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8500 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton in the range; The ex factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8000 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 200 yuan/ton in the range.

The upstream fluorite market has slightly increased, with an average market price of 3375.00 yuan/ton on March 24th, an increase of 0.56% compared to the price of 3356.25 yuan/ton on March 18th. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, with low operating rates among enterprises. At the same time, fluorite mining enterprises are facing safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to operate. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. Downstream parties follow up as needed, and the market trading atmosphere has slightly improved. The fluorite price market has been sorted and operated.

Market forecast: The supply of ice crystal raw materials is tight, and the cost of ice crystal is high. Recently, the price of raw materials has increased, which has a positive impact on the market mentality. However, downstream procurement is limited, and demand support is insufficient. The market atmosphere is cautious. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the ice crystal market will temporarily stabilize in the later stage. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has fluctuated slightly recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9430.00 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9300.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38%. The price has increased by 11.71% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating and consolidating in the past three months, and this week’s market is still fluctuating within a small range. International oil prices have fallen, cost support is poor, downstream demand has not improved, while styrene supply is relatively abundant, inventory decline is slow, market shipping intentions are strong, and the market continues to decline.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene rose first and then fell this week. On March 18th, the price of pure benzene was 8508 yuan/ton. On Friday (March 22nd), the price of pure benzene was 8542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from last week and an increase of 18.22% from the same period last year. The price of pure benzene in East China opened low and rose high, with active low-end transactions and a rebound in market buying. Most refineries in Shandong maintain a shipping mentality and continue to reduce prices and promote sales. After the price drop, the market just needs to follow up, and most businesses are bearish in the future, resulting in overall weak trading.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. At the beginning of this week, the average PS price was 9833 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average PS price was 9900 yuan/ton. The cost support for PS is poor, and the demand is average. It is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) price will mainly fluctuate downward in the short term.

The EPS market remained stable this week, with an average price of 10450.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials over the weekend. EPS is affected by the upstream pull up, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. It is expected that the domestic EPS market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations.

The domestic ABS market has been stable recently. Recently, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS has remained stable, moderate, and strong, maintaining support for the cost side of ABS. Petrochemical plant operations continue to decrease, and supply pressure has significantly eased. On the demand side, due to downstream enterprises resuming work and increasing production schedules, ABS consumption has increased. Merchants are attempting to offer higher prices, resulting in strong market momentum. The current ABS fundamentals are generally bullish, and the ABS market may continue to rise in the short term in the future.

In recent times, the global economy has been weak, international oil prices have fallen, cost support is poor, and the supply and demand of styrene itself are temporarily weak. Under the dual negative outlook, it is expected that the short-term volatility and decline in the styrene market will be the main factors.

Recently (3.6-3.20), the market for isooctyl acrylate has experienced a wide range of fluctuations, with significant fluctuations in market prices. The raw material octanol has fluctuated downward, and the downstream demand has not fully recovered. In the limited situation of external stimuli such as cost and demand, the market for isooctyl acrylate has experienced a significant decline. As of March 20th, the reference price of isooctyl acrylate was 13375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.60% compared to March 6th (13875.00 yuan/ton).

For example, in the Shandong market, the recent raw material octanol has been operating in the range of 11500-12400 yuan/ton, with an overall fluctuation space of 900 yuan/ton. Another raw material, acrylic acid, has limited overall fluctuation, with acrylic acid in the East China market operating in the range of 6200-6300 yuan/ton. Faced with the fluctuation of raw materials such as octanol and acrylic acid, the cost pressure of isooctyl acrylate has decreased, and there is a relatively stable profit margin in the industry.

The demand side is weak, and merchants continue to actively ship as the main trend. Demand recovery is less than expected, causing resistance from merchants in shipping. On the one hand, the return to market node of the terminal industry has been delayed, and on the other hand, the cautious sentiment of terminal purchasing remains unchanged, basically maintaining the level of small orders in demand. In the situation of poor shipment by acrylic acid isooctyl ester merchants, there is a certain phenomenon of lower profit margins, especially in the situation of sufficient supply. In order to alleviate shipment resistance, the market low price continues to increase. However, considering cost factors, the market decline space of acrylic acid isooctyl ester is limited.

In the market operation, there is also a certain rebound situation in the isooctyl acrylate industry, but the rebound effect is mediocre. Business Society analysts predict that next week’s market, although there are certain expectations, the industry will still mainly consume inventory. With the maintenance of supply and demand surplus, there is still room for the center of gravity of isooctyl acrylate to fall, but the market will still be mainly based on the stage, and attention will be paid to the dynamics of raw material octanol.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from March 1st to March 19th, 2024, the price of liquid sodium acetate increased by 37 yuan/ton, with 812 yuan/ton on March 1st and 849 yuan/ton on March 19th.

In terms of raw material acetic acid: Recently, the acetic acid market has been relatively strong and rising. The factory’s shipment is smooth, the enterprise’s inventory has decreased, and with the resumption of upstream and downstream operations, there has been an increase in replenishment in the market. The market trading atmosphere is good, and the quotation of acetic acid manufacturers has been raised.

On the downstream side, after the holiday, various industries resumed work and production, and the demand for sewage treatment increased. The price of sodium acetate factories rose, and the market began to rebound.

In the future market forecast, analysts from Shengyishe Sodium Acetate believe that both the supply and demand sides are favorable, and it is expected that the focus of the sodium acetate market will remain stable in the short term, with narrow consolidation as the main trend.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 15th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3473 yuan/ton, and on March 8th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3483 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

There is currently no news of resuming production of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan, and the supply of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan is expected to remain tight in the short term. But the market’s expectation of mining starting in March has strengthened. Aluminum oxide plants in Shanxi and Henan regions have successively raised the long-term purchase prices of liquid alkali in March.

In terms of supply and demand

The resumption of production in some aluminum oxide plants has been promoted, and the operating rate of aluminum oxide has been increased. Due to the average activity of the aluminum oxide spot market, the market price of aluminum oxide in some provinces has been lowered again.

Post trend prediction

We need to continue to monitor the expected resumption of production of aluminum oxide plants in the Jin Yu region and the recent arrival of imported aluminum oxide at the port. In the short term, it may mainly operate in a oscillatory manner.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Business Society, copper prices surged significantly on March 14th, rising 4.08% in a single day, breaking through the 70000 mark and reaching a new high of 71881.67 yuan/ton since June 14th, 2022. The significant increase in copper prices is mainly influenced by the news of negotiation meetings among domestic copper smelters.

The specific situation is as follows:

Copper concentrate processing fees TC/RC have fallen to a ten-year low

Due to the continuous decline in copper concentrate processing fees TC/RC and the loss of profits for smelters, the industry’s expectations for production reduction are constantly strengthening. The current TC of copper concentrate is $15.29/ton, a significant decrease of 83.73% from the high point of $94/ton in September last year, which is the lowest point in nearly a decade. Under recent price levels, smelters are gradually experiencing increasing losses. If the smelter purchases spot copper concentrate for production, the current loss is about 1400 yuan/ton. If the smelter uses long single copper concentrate for production, the current profit is about 900 yuan/ton. The continuous decline in copper concentrate processing fees is due to the fact that the expansion rate of crude refining capacity in domestic copper smelters is greater than the supply rate of copper concentrate. It is expected that processing fees will continue to decline, possibly reaching negative numbers. Even domestic smelters undergoing maintenance may not be able to reverse the decline in processing fees.

On the 13th, domestic smelters held a meeting to discuss reducing production

The news of domestic smelters reducing production in the market has also been fermenting for some time. According to the news, on the 13th, the China Nonferrous Metals Association convened a meeting of top domestic copper smelters. In response to the continuous decline in smelting costs, each smelter may have production reduction plans in the future, but the specific amount of production reduction is not yet clear, and small smelters may be the first to be affected. The expectation of reduced production has become a key factor in the rise of copper prices.

The expectation of reduced production in this round of copper smelters may first be implemented in small factories. Although most of the top domestic smelters currently have a long order guarantee of $80 per ton for processing fees, relying on spot supply will still impact smaller smelters. After a sharp decline in TC, refineries have strengthened their efforts to purchase scrap copper.

Fundamentals:

Macro positive

Despite rising inflation data in the United States, the market still expects interest rate cuts to begin in June. On the domestic side, the State Council has issued the Action Plan for Promoting Large scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade in; And it will guide banking institutions to reasonably increase green credit and strengthen financial support for the production, service, and consumption of green smart home appliances. Properly reduce the down payment ratio for passenger car loans, and reasonably determine the loan term and credit limit for automobiles. The State Administration for Financial Regulation claims to accelerate the implementation and effectiveness of the coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing.

LME copper inventory slightly decreased

According to the above chart, LME copper inventories have slightly declined recently. As of the 13th, LME copper inventory was 108925 tons, a decrease of 34.26% from 165700 tons at the beginning of the year.

Supply side

Chile’s state-owned mining company Codelco stated that a worker died in an accident at the Radomiro Tomic copper mine in the northern part of the country last Friday afternoon. The company stated in a statement that activities in the mining area where the accident occurred have been suspended. Last week, the domestic electrolytic copper production was 242000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons compared to the previous week.

The overall demand side is dull

At present, downstream consumption of copper is relatively flat. Downstream demand is not as good as copper prices, and facing high pressure from processing factories, there are basically orders for on-demand procurement.

According to the annual price comparison chart of copper, the trend of copper prices in the second half of March has mostly improved in the past five years.

Future Market Forecast:

Although the news of domestic smelters reducing production continues to ferment and meetings have been held, the scale and timing of the reduction are still unclear. According to reports, the actual direct reduction in production is still very rare, and the output of most enterprises is relatively stable. From the current perspective, instead of focusing on the emphasis on reducing losses and production, what actually has a more prominent impact on production is the upcoming peak maintenance period and early maintenance of some smelters. From the current fundamental data, it can be seen that with the arrival of the maintenance period, domestic output will be gradually affected. The average monthly output in the second quarter is expected to be slightly lower than the level in March, and domestic output will fall slightly. In addition, import expectations are also slightly insufficient. Therefore, the overall tight supply situation still exists.

Overall, the sentiment driving the rise in copper prices may take some time to digest. Currently, TC prices continue to decline, domestic refineries are reducing production, and coupled with the expected impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, it is expected that copper prices will also maintain a strong pattern. However, it is necessary to be cautious of the impact of high copper prices on market demand.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since March, the hydrogen peroxide market has rebounded and prices have risen. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 783 yuan/ton. On March 12th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 806 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.98%.

Lido supports the rise of hydrogen peroxide market

In early March, terminal printing and paper industry enterprises gradually resumed production, and demand gradually increased. The transaction volume of hydrogen peroxide market improved, and the market gradually rebounded. Prices slightly increased, with an average market price of 800 yuan/ton and an overall price increase of around 30-50 yuan/ton.

In the second week, terminal demand gradually rebounded with bullish support, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to remain strong, with a price range of 800-850 yuan/ton. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers mainly raise prices, and prices are gradually rising.

Chemical analysts from Business Society believe that by the end of March, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have gradually resumed production, and the sustained upward momentum in the market is insufficient.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose first and then fell this week (3.4-3.11). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 28710 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the beginning of this week was 221560 yuan/ton, up 1.3% for the week.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of supply, with the end of the holiday, smelting enterprises that had previously stopped work in Yunnan have resumed work. Recently, they have basically resumed normal production, and enterprises that have undergone early maintenance have also started work. Tin ingot production is gradually returning to normal, but the supply at the mining end is still tight, and the impact on the market is still relatively low. Downstream photovoltaic companies have performed well in terms of demand, with recent recovery in terminal demand orders and some recovery in market demand for semiconductors, electronic products, and other products. Market expectations have improved. Overall, the recent downstream performance has been good, driving the market atmosphere to rebound. The tin ingot market has been rising for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that in the short term, under the influence of relatively stable macro news, the tin ingot market will mainly operate in a stable and strong manner. As the second quarter approaches, the market’s focus will still be on the news of resuming production in Wa State, with a focus on changes in processing fees in the future.

Related data:

On March 10th, the base metal index was 1185 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.67% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 84.58% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On March 10th, the non-ferrous index was 1108 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.96% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 82.54% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 10th week of 2024 (3.4-3.8), there were a total of 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were gold (3.55%), silver (2.92%), and zinc (2.69%). There are a total of 12 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are metal praseodymium (-3.43%), magnesium (-3.27%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-2.29%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.11%.

This week (3.4-8), there was little change in the domestic polysilicon market, and the market remained stable after the holiday. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, polysilicon saw a 0% increase and decrease in the week. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 55-6000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the current operating rate is still high, and all large factories are operating, showing some pressure on the supply. On the one hand, mainstream large factories have stable production, coupled with the gradual release of new production capacity, achieving mass production, and domestic supply performance is abundant. However, due to the stable operating rate of downstream silicon wafers, there was no significant room for improvement after the holiday. Under the influence of downstream procurement slowdown, the shipment speed of manufacturers slowed down, leading to silicon material manufacturers starting to accumulate inventory. Although the current prices are running low, manufacturers are gradually showing a mentality of price support, and the factory prices are temporarily stable. However, the bargaining power of silicon material manufacturers may continue to weaken, and it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of a long-term decline,

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, this week’s silicon wafer quotation remains unchanged from last week’s price. The operating load of silicon wafer enterprises remains at the previous level, and currently there is significant inventory pressure, mainly due to the backlog of inventory from manufacturers in the early stage, coupled with downstream battery manufacturers stopping work and taking holidays, resulting in an oversupply situation. But currently, manufacturers are still raising prices, and the price of silicon wafers is mainly stable. The mainstream transaction price of P-type M10 silicon wafers remains stable at 2.05 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price of P-type G12 is 3.00 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price for N-type M10 silicon wafers is 2.00 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price for N-type G12 is 3.10 yuan/piece.

From the perspective of terminal demand, the quotation for battery cells remains basically unchanged. Due to the weakening downstream demand, the production of P-type battery cells has basically ended. Component prices continue to hang upside down. This week, components have been affected by the sluggish terminal installation, and prices have remained sluggish. The photovoltaic industry chain has maintained a pattern of oversupply.

Market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the upstream supply pressure of the photovoltaic industry chain may gradually become prominent, but the demand for installed capacity is still low. The upstream and downstream of photovoltaics will continue to remain sluggish, and the price of silicon materials is still difficult to improve in the short term.