The domestic cyclohexanone market rose sharply in September. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 10720 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 12760 yuan / ton, an increase of 19.03% in the month and 90.86% year-on-year.

At the beginning of June, the cyclohexanone market was strong and upward, pure benzene rose steadily, the cost support was relatively stable, the maintenance of downstream caprolactam units was concentrated, the spot supply in the market was tight, and some chemical fiber plants actively purchased.

In the middle of the month, the cyclohexanone market rose broadly, and pure benzene was listed twice, with a total increase of 200 yuan / ton to 7850 yuan / ton, which was strongly supported by the cost side. The downstream caprolactam has more shutdown and maintenance, the supply is tight, and the demand for cyclohexanone is increasing.

In late June, the cyclohexanone market operated strongly, and pure benzene was listed twice, with a total reduction of 400 yuan / ton to 8200 yuan / ton, lacking support in cost. However, the downstream caprolactam supply is tight. During the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, some chemical fiber plants actively prepare goods and purchase, forming a good demand support for the cyclohexanone market. In addition, there are many parking lots of cyclohexanone, the commodity volume continues to be in short supply, and cyclohexanone runs at a high price.

Monthly K column chart of domestic production price of cyclohexanone:

Weekly K column chart of domestic production price of cyclohexanone:

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of September 29:

region ., Price

East China 12900-13000 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China 13100-13200 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region 12600-12800 yuan / ton cash delivery

In terms of raw materials and pure benzene, the price of pure benzene rose rapidly and significantly at the beginning of the month, forming a strong support for cyclohexanone. At the end of the month, pure benzene was listed for two times, with a total reduction of 400 yuan / ton to 8200 yuan / ton, weakening the positive cost side.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business society:

Downstream, the maintenance of caprolactam unit was concentrated at the beginning of the month, the spot supply in the market was tight, and some chemical fiber plants actively purchased. From mid month to the end of the month, caprolactam has a lot of parking and maintenance, and the supply of goods is tight. In addition, near the Mid Autumn Festival National Day holiday, the demand for cyclohexanone in downstream chemical fibers and solvents increases.

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business community:

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in August 2021, there were 59 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 29 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 29.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were formic acid (48.35%), lithium carbonate (30.45%) and hydrochloric acid (29.41%). A total of 34 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 13 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the first three declines were liquid ammonia (- 21.16%), chloroform (- 16.00%) and urea (- 13.43%). The average rise and fall this month was 3.39%.

Although the cost side lacks support, cyclohexanone is in short supply. Cyclohexanone analysts of business society expect that the short-term cyclohexanone market will still be strong.

According to the price monitoring of business society, in September 2021, the market price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate in East China continued to soar in August, and the price remained in the rising range until the end of the month, but slowed down slightly. As of September 28, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 167800 yuan / ton, an increase of 40.77% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 119200 yuan / ton on September 1). On September 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 175200 yuan / ton, an increase of 39.49% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 125600 yuan / ton on September 1). Until the 28th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 153000-187000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 163000-205000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued the upward trend at the end of August from September, and the rising range continued to increase rapidly. Around the middle of September, the domestic mainstream manufacturers basically completed the spot sales in September, and the market supply is very tight. With the rising price, there is a gap at the raw material end. The large-scale production of overseas mines and salt lakes will start at the end of this year or early next year, and the shortage of raw materials may last for several months. In terms of supply and demand, the state of short supply continues. In the early stage, the inventory of some manufacturers and traders is slowly released. Therefore, the rising sentiment is high and the price is rising.

Until the end of September, the rise of lithium carbonate price slowed down. First, the price slowed down because the price remained high and the acceptance of small and medium-sized material factories was low. Most of them focused on inquiry, but the purchase volume was slightly inferior. Second, affected by the “dual control of energy consumption” policy and import increment, the market reluctance to sell was slightly weakened, and traders and some smelters began to gradually increase their sales to the market.

In terms of upstream raw materials, it is difficult to obtain one ticket for overseas lithium concentrate. On September 14, the auction price of the second batch of 8000 tons of lithium concentrate of Pilbara, an Australian lithium mining enterprise, reached 2240 yuan / ton, continuing to hit a record high, which makes the subsequent lithium salt plants sell their products under the condition of reasonable profits, and the price of lithium carbonate will continue to rise. In the fourth quarter of China, with the impact of climate cooling, the output of Salt Lake will also decrease, which makes the demand for raw materials more tense.

The downstream lithium hydroxide market continued to rise as a whole in September. The strong operation of the upstream spodumene price and the rise of lithium carbonate price both led to the rise of lithium hydroxide price. Near the end of the month, affected by the policy of “dual control of energy consumption”, the operating rate in some regions decreased. However, when the downstream material factory entered the procurement replenishment season at the end of the month, the procurement volume increased and the transaction price increased.

In terms of lithium iron phosphate, the lithium iron phosphate market was also in the rising range in September. Due to the continuous rise of upstream raw materials and rapid price transmission, the market price of lithium iron phosphate continued to rise. In terms of demand, near the fourth quarter, the downstream power market demand has increased to a certain extent, raising the demand for iron and lithium.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, at present, although the market shipments have increased and the superimposed demand side has been slightly reduced under the influence of the “dual control of energy consumption” policy, the limitation of lithium resources in China in the fourth quarter can not be alleviated. There is still a demand gap in the lithium carbonate market before the end of the year, and there is still room for rise. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price is still in an upward trend, but it will slow down slightly.

Domestic cobalt prices stabilized after rising this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, affected by the sharp rise of international cobalt price, the domestic cobalt price continued to rise this week. After that, the cobalt price stabilized and the rise of cobalt Market slowed down. As of September 27, the cobalt price was 381200.00 yuan / ton, up 1.71% from 374800.00 yuan / ton on September 20 at the beginning of last week.

International cobalt prices rose sharply this week

time Category specification minimum price Rise and fall Highest price Rise and fall Company

September 17, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-four point four five zero point two twenty-five zero point two five USD / lb

September 17, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-four point four five zero point two twenty-five zero point two five USD / lb

September 20, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-four point six zero point one five twenty-five 0 USD / lb

September 20, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-four point five zero point zero five twenty-five 0 USD / lb

September 21, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-four point nine five zero point three five twenty-five point two five zero point two five USD / lb

September 21, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-four point eight zero point three twenty-five point two five zero point two five USD / lb

September 22, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-four point nine five 0 twenty-five point two five 0 USD / lb

September 22, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-four point nine zero point one twenty-five point two five 0 USD / lb

September 23, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-five point one zero point one five twenty-five point five zero point two five USD / lb

September 23, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-five point one zero point two twenty-five point five zero point two five USD / lb

September 24, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-five point two zero point one twenty-five point six zero point one USD / lb

September 24, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-five point two zero point one twenty-five point six zero point one USD / lb

From the data released by LME market, it can be seen that after the closing price of LME cobalt rose sharply this week, the cobalt price stabilized, the international cobalt Market stabilized, and the positive impact on the domestic cobalt Market slowed down. From the trend of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that MB cobalt price continued to rise this week, but the increase slowed down, and the international cobalt market rose, which was good for the domestic cobalt market, but the positive momentum weakened.

Influence of double control power rationing on cobalt Market

Recently, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Anhui, Yunnan, Shandong, Liaoning and other places have introduced power restriction measures. The production of iron and steel, nonferrous metals, chemical industry, textile and other industries in many places has been affected to a certain extent, and production has been reduced or stopped one after another. The national double control large-scale power rationing has a great impact on the production of key energy consuming enterprises such as smelting, and non-ferrous smelting enterprises stop production and reduce production more.

The “power restriction order” in the three northeastern provinces and other places has spread from factories to residents’ lives. According to media reports, recently, many places such as Shenbei New District, Shenyang, Liaoning Province had a sudden “switch off and power failure”, which once led to traffic paralysis and affected residents’ lives. The power shortage has even affected residents’ lives. The growth of electric vehicles is bound to exacerbate the power shortage and increase the pressure on the power grid. In the case of such serious power rationing, it will discourage consumers from buying electric vehicles to a certain extent.

New energy vehicles with soaring costs

Since 2021, the price of ternary materials has increased by 52%, the price of negative electrode materials has increased by 70%, the price of electrolyte has increased by 151%, the raw material cost of lithium battery has increased significantly, and the battery cost has basically increased by 17000 yuan! The price of the whole vehicle has increased by at least 5%. Under the dual influence of the continuous rise of raw material costs and the expansion of market share of new energy vehicle enterprises at this stage, in order to control costs, more vehicle enterprises choose to use lithium iron phosphate batteries. In August 2021, China’s lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 56.9% of the output of power batteries, which has greatly exceeded that of ternary batteries. The fundamental reason may be that the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries can be reduced by 65% – 72% compared with ternary batteries. With the implementation of the “production restriction order”, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery also has an upward trend, and the supply of lithium iron phosphate has long been in an emergency. In the future, the proportion of ternary battery market is expected to slow down, and the demand for ternary battery is expected to rise slowly.

Market overview and future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that stimulated by the rise in international cobalt prices, domestic cobalt prices rose this week. Affected by double control power and production restriction, the domestic cobalt salt price continues to rise, and the rise of cobalt salt price drives the rise of metal cobalt price. However, in the future, with the intensification of power restriction, the commencement of non-ferrous smelting industry decreases, the output of cobalt market is expected to decline, and the power restriction intensifies or affects the sales of new energy vehicles. With the continuous rise of lithium iron phosphate price, the decline in the proportion of ternary battery market slows down, the demand for ternary battery is expected to rise slowly in the future, and the rising support of cobalt market still exists. Overall, the cobalt market has risen recently. It is expected that the cobalt price will stabilize before the festival, and the long-term cobalt price will rise slowly.

This week (September 20-26), the price of domestic liquid ammonia continued to rise. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of liquid ammonia increased by 4.76% this week. As of Sunday, the price of liquid ammonia has increased by 26.92% since September. At present, the market has recovered all the decline in August, and the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has reached 4700-4800 yuan / ton, mainly due to the reduction of supply caused by enterprise maintenance, the boost of high cost, and the expectation of peak season demand for agrochemical fertilizer.

On the supply side, the market supply remains tight. The units in northwest, Hubei, Hebei, Shandong and other main producing areas were shut down for maintenance or started with load reduction, the market supply continued to decline, the domestic urea output decreased significantly, and the price began to rise continuously. However, some ammonia enterprises switched to urea, which exacerbated the contradiction of shortage of liquid ammonia supply, and the price of liquid ammonia also rose moderately, Especially from the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, manufacturers in Shandong, Hebei and other regions continuously raised their ex factory prices, and the market was stable at the weekend.

On the cost side, the coal price continued to rise, and the cost prompted the market price of liquid ammonia to rise. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of power coal at the beginning of the week was about 1407.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was about 1525 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 8.35% and a year-on-year increase of 155.98%. Affected by the environmental protection policy and the recent dual control policy of energy consumption, some coal mines are still in the shutdown stage, and the overall supply of power coal is tight. In addition, the peak period of civil power has passed, but the downstream demand is still hot, and the available coal storage days of the power plant are at a low level. The power plant just needs to purchase and passively accepts the high price. (see figure above)

On the demand side, under the background of frequent maintenance by downstream urea manufacturers and significant decline in daily average urea output, large plants in Xinjiang and Shandong have been overhauled or reduced load this week, affecting the daily output of more than 4000 tons. The shortage of supply has led to the soaring price of urea. According to the monitoring of business society, urea rose by 9.27% this week. Although there is no fundamental improvement in downstream demand, the shortage of goods in the market leads to tight terminal procurement. The domestic compound fertilizer market is generally stable, but the “ensuring supply and stabilizing price” has affected the market mentality to a certain extent. The rise of urea price slowed down over the weekend, and the market rigidity is expected to be mild before the festival.

In terms of export, the import and export quarantine policy with high market attention has an obvious impact on the market. The change of China’s export inspection mode has an adverse impact on China’s exporters’ enthusiasm for purchasing ports, and the export increment in the later stage may be restrained.

Future forecast: the business community believes that the short-term market is still good. Although the recent resumption of work by enterprises will bring new output, it is difficult to reach the level of the same period last year in the short term, and the downstream procurement is expected to rise near the peak season of Wheat Fertilizer in autumn, which will make the price of liquid ammonia easy to rise but difficult to fall. At the same time, it is difficult for the market to rise sharply under the background of “ensuring supply and stabilizing price”, In particular, liquid ammonia has reached an all-time high, and the market is expected to maintain a high and narrow fluctuation in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is strong this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was about 2375 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2837.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 19.47%, an increase of 73.72% over the same period last year. On September 23, the commodity index of light soda ash was 130.13, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 106.06% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of soda ash is strong this week. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2800-3000 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2800-2900 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is relatively strong, and the mainstream price of light soda ash is about 2800-2900 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the short-term high price of soda ash is dominated. Affected by the dual control policy, there are many manufacturers’ parking, the overall supply of soda ash is reduced, and the delivery of early orders is mainly. According to the data, the overall operating rate of soda ash this week was 72.5%, which was 79.33% last week, and the operating rate decreased. Soda ash inventory is small, and some enterprises do not pick up goods smoothly.

In terms of upstream raw salt, affected by the dual control policy, the price rises and the market trading is OK. Demand: the price of glass spot market is weak. In Shahe, North China, production and sales are weak, inventories rise, manufacturers mainly ship at stable prices, and traders ship flexibly. The trend in East China is weak, with many limited films, obvious wait-and-see mood in the downstream and declining focus. The glass market in Central China has a downward focus, lower prices and general shipments. Glass shipments in South China are generally stable, with manufacturers shipping at stable prices, and the downstream just needs to purchase. Forecast: Glass spot market is weak in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 37th week of 2021 (9.13-9.17), there were 4 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling and 1 kind of commodities rising or falling to 0. The main commodities rising were caustic soda (37.16%), PVC (2.66%) and calcium carbide (1.23%); The average rise and fall this week was 8.32%.

Business analysts believe that the domestic soda ash price is strong, the market is running, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. However, the downstream glass price is still in conflict with the high price soda ash, the glass price is weak, and the soda ash is mostly purchased on demand. There is still demand in the market as a whole, but the supply is small and the supply is difficult to find. In addition, considering the impact of policies, soda ash is still strong in the short term, mainly market operation, depending on the downstream market demand.

Market price trend chart of nitric acid

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in China was 3100 yuan / ton on September 23 and 3090 yuan / ton on September 16, an increase of 0.32%.

On September 22, Anhui Jinhe offered 3000 yuan / ton, an increase of 50 yuan / ton over last week; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 3100 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, which is 20 yuan / ton lower than last week. The production is limited in the factory and is ready for maintenance; The ex factory quotation of Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical concentrated nitric acid is 2650 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week. The nitric acid plant is shut down for maintenance; Hongze Yinzhu chemical quoted 3500 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, an increase of 500 yuan / ton compared with last week. Anhui Aodeli concentrated nitric acid quoted 3050 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton compared with last week. The goods in nitric acid market are generally sold, industrial power is limited, the supply of nitric acid may be tight, and the price of nitric acid may rise.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (September 22): 24666.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on September 22, the price of raw hydrofluoric acid remained stable and the price of methane oxide was corrected, but the cost support was still in place, the start-up of refrigerant enterprises was still low, the on-site supply was tight, there was no sign of correction, and the market continued to operate strongly.

It is expected that R22 price is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.

DOP prices fell all the way this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, DOP prices fell this week, and the DOP market fluctuated and fell. On September 10, the DOP price was 14575.00 yuan / ton, down 1.10% from 14737.50 yuan / ton on September 1. DOP prices fell in September, and the overall DOP market was weak.

DOP Market Overview

DOP prices were weak this week, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.10%. Downstream users had limited intention to receive orders, weak demand side support, insufficient enthusiasm of end users to enter the market, and strong market wait-and-see sentiment. This week’s drop in DOP prices led to a decline in theoretical profits. Theoretical profits in some regions were negative, DOP profits were upside down, and there was limited room for future decline. This week, the operating rate of DOP enterprises was about 50%, and the operating rate rebounded slightly.

Downstream market recovery

As can be seen from the PVC price trend chart, the PVC market continued to rise this week, up 3.8%, which was good for the DOP market. With the advent of the traditional peak domestic demand season “golden nine and silver ten”, the PVC market has improved, but due to multiple factors, the downstream demand side has not improved greatly, the demand performance of DOP is relatively cold, and the PVC market is rising, which is good for the DOP market.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business society, believes that PVC prices rose this week, and the downstream market recovered, driving the resumption of DOP enterprises, the operating rate of DOP enterprises rose and DOP prices fell; In terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol decreased, the price of phthalic anhydride increased, the overall DOP cost stabilized, and the negative impact on DOP in terms of raw materials was limited. Although the downstream demand has warmed up, the overall demand is relatively cold, which has limited benefits for DOP, and the DOP price approaches the cost line, with limited room for decline. In the future, the rebound pressure of DOP bottomed out has increased. However, due to the great resistance of downstream to high price DOP, the support for DOP rise is insufficient. Overall, DOP prices tend to be stable and the upward momentum increases. It is expected that DOP prices will be strong and stable in the future.

This week (9.6-9.10), the market of nitrile rubber was stable. According to the monitoring of business society, as of September 10, the price of nitrile rubber was 23900 yuan / ton, mainly stable.

The ex factory price of domestic nitrile rubber was partially adjusted. According to the monitoring of business society, Lanzhou Petrochemical reported 20800 yuan / ton of nitrile n41e as of September 10; 3305e reported 21900 yuan / ton, stable; Ningbo shunze 65000 T / a unit operates normally. The ex factory price of nitrile 3355 / 3365 is 22300 yuan / ton, increased by 300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 3380 is 23000 yuan / ton, which is stable. Some manufacturers control orders, the market supply is tight, traders are reluctant to sell, and the market offer is firm. This week, the downstream rubber products industry started stably, and the demand for nitrile rubber was rigidly supported.

The raw material butadiene fell sharply, and the cost was short of the impact of nitrile rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of September 10, the price of butadiene was 9117 yuan / ton, down 6.27% from 9727 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business society believe that the cost side is bad, but the market supply is relatively tight. In addition, there is still rigid support for demand. It is expected that the high level of NBR market will be strong in the short term.

The decline of domestic butadiene market slowed down slightly this week. As the market fell to a low level, the downstream just needed to enter the market for replenishment. In addition, some factories replenished before the holiday, which formed a certain support for the northern spot market.

According to the sample data monitored by the business society, from September 6 to 13, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 9727 yuan / ton to 9091 yuan / ton, with a price decrease of 6.54% during the cycle, a price decrease of 15.02% month on month and a price increase of 51.68% year-on-year. In terms of price, the delivery price in central Shandong is 9400-9500 yuan / ton, and the negotiation range of self delivery price in East China is about 9000-9100 yuan / ton.

The decline rate of domestic butadiene market slowed down. In terms of supply, the export of goods was blocked, and the inventory rose slowly. In terms of demand, the downstream replenishment before the festival and the restart of Shandong Weite and Qilu Petrochemical units are expected. The external market fell sharply, the supply pressure dragged the supplier’s prices down continuously to stimulate transactions, and the focus of the market continued to decline.

In terms of enterprises, the listed price of butadiene of Sinopec’s sales companies has been reduced by 900 yuan / ton, and the executive price was 9100 yuan / ton as of September 13. Shandong Wanhua 50000 T / a butadiene extraction unit has been shut down for maintenance since September 1. The 120000 T / a butadiene extraction unit of North Huajin was shut down for maintenance on July 14 and restarted on September 1.

In terms of external market: as of September 10, the external price of butadiene in Asia fell: FOB Korea closed at US $945-955 / T, down US $300 / T; CFR China closed at US $995-1005 / ton, down US $270 / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe fell: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $1875-1885 / T, down US $20 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 1545-1555 euros / ton, down 30 euros / ton.

region ., Country, closing price, up and down

Asia FOB Korea 945-955 USD / ton – $300 / ton

Asia CFR China USD 995-1005 / ton – $270 / ton

Europe FOB Rotterdam USD 1875-1885 / ton – USD 20 / ton

Europe FD northwest Europe 1545-1555 euros / ton – 30 euros / ton

Rigid demand has limited support for the domestic spot market, and the external market has fallen sharply, dragging down the mentality of merchants. The supply side of the global market is under pressure. Under the influence of the imbalance between supply and demand, butadiene analysts of business society expect that there is still some downward space for the domestic butadiene market in the near future.