According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has been on the rise recently. The average price of ethylene on the 26th day was $761.00/ton, and the price on the last trading day was $731.75/ton, up 4.00%. The current price is 28.22% higher than the previous month, and the current price is 17.19% lower than the previous year.

In the near future, ethylene is on the rise as a whole. Asian ethylene market prices remained stable. As of the 26th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $845-855 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $785-795 / ton. The price of European ethylene market rose. As of the 26th, the price of European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at US $720-730 / T, and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $675-683 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region has risen. As of the 26th, the price is 275-293 U.S. dollars / ton. Generally speaking, the recent market of ethylene in Europe and the United States is mainly on the rise. The demand of the whole ethylene market is improving, the trading atmosphere is active, and the rise is sufficient.

International: on June 26, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States fell, and the settlement price of main contracts was 38.49 USD / barrel, down 0.23 USD. The price of Brent crude oil futures market fell, with the settlement price of the main contract down $0.19 to $40.93. The fall of international oil price is mainly due to the serious trend of the epidemic, which leads to the restart of market fuel demand worries. Although the crude oil market fell, the decline was small, and the large increase in the previous period still supported the cost of ethylene.

The downstream styrene price remained stable, with an average price of 5450.00 US dollars / ton on the 28th day. Generally speaking, the price was still in a high consolidation, which was good to support the upward ethylene price.

In terms of crude oil, the international oil price fell after rising for eight weeks. The continuous growth of US crude oil inventory and limited rise of international oil price cannot form cost support for ethylene, so analysts of business data expect that the price of ethylene will mainly fall in the next few days.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the large scale list of business associations, the price of aniline in this week is stable compared with last week. On June 19, the price of aniline in Shandong is 4500-4590 yuan / ton, and that in East China is 4600-4820 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, this week, Sinopec’s pure benzene decreased by 100 yuan / ton compared with last week, and its listing price was 3600 yuan / ton, with weak bottom support. At present, the port inventory of pure benzene is accumulating, and the support of spot market is weak. The downstream delivery was slow, and the price of pure benzene fell this week due to inventory pressure.

The price of nitric acid is stable this week. On June 19, the production price in East China was 1450 yuan / ton.

At present, the aniline Market is mainly affected by supply and demand. In the week, the polymerization MDI in East China weakened to 12275 yuan / ton. The price of polymerization MDI in China is stagnant and fluctuated, and spot transactions are common. It is difficult for aniline to be boosted, and it can maintain large stability and small dynamic operation in a week.

3、 Future expectation

Crude oil has a strong positive support, boosting the price of pure benzene in the far month; however, the short-term pure benzene inventory pressure remains, and the spot supply and demand are weak. In the short term, it is difficult for the price of pure benzene to increase significantly.

The short-term aniline price is less affected by the cost side, while the downstream market continues to be rigid, and it is expected that the aniline price will continue to be stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of the mainstream manufacturers on June 22 was 18166.67 yuan / ton, slightly lower than 18333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 0.91% lower in the week and 3.54% lower than that at the beginning of the month. 36.26% lower than the same period last year

2、 Market analysis

This week, R134a market in refrigerant market continued to weaken, but the decrease was not significant. Raw material hydrofluoric acid support is OK, the demand side is still weak, and the auto market industry is difficult to make a big change in the short term. Under the contradiction of supply over demand, the trend of refrigerant R134a is not good, and it has fallen to a low level, and the attitude of the industry is negative. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of June 19, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 18333.33 yuan / ton, and the market price was concentrated around 16000 yuan / ton – 22000 yuan / ton.

Upstream, on June 19, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 8000-9000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was temporarily stable. The operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was average, the supply of goods in the field was normal, driven by the rising price of fluorite, but the demand of downstream refrigerant industry was poor, and the on-demand procurement in the field was the main thing. It is expected that the on-site price will continue to rise slightly in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business club, at present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market remains, the market transaction is light, and the price of refrigerant R134a has moved down to a low level substantially. Now, the decline is slowing down. It is expected that the refrigerant R134a market is still weak in the short term, but there is little room for reduction.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, this week’s domestic price of industrial grade potassium nitrate was 4212.50 yuan / ton, with the current price down 2.32% month on month and the current price down 1.46% year on year.

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market remained stable, the market trading atmosphere was tepid, the demand was average, the actual volume of the market was poor, and the potassium nitrate Market remained stable. According to the statistics of the business agency: this week, the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 4000-4400 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

This week, the quotation of mainstream upstream potassium chloride manufacturers was temporarily stable. Now, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable. Limited support for potassium nitrate.

According to the potassium nitrate analyst of the business agency, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has maintained a relatively stable trend in the near future, with large inventory pressure and general shipment. It is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will mainly fall in the short term.

At the beginning of the week, the price of refined oil was driven up by the good result of OPEC + agreement. At the end of the week, the oil market was worried that the demand of crude oil market and the record high inventory in the United States were negative, and the price of domestic gasoline and diesel fell. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic gasoline price this week (the week of June 12) is 5017.50 yuan / ton, 0.16% lower than that of last week. The domestic diesel price is 4967.17 yuan / ton, 0.61% lower than last week’s diesel price.

On June 7, at the OPEC + ministerial video conference, OPEC agreed to extend its measures to reduce production by 9.7 million barrels per day for one month until the end of July. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices in the United States topped $40 / barrel and $43 / barrel respectively. In the middle of the week, there is a great deal of worry about the second attack on crude oil. At the same time, as of the week of June 5, the crude oil inventory in the United States unexpectedly increased by 5.7 million barrels to a record high of 538 million barrels, and the international oil price dropped. As of June 12, 15, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was around 35 US dollars per barrel, with a weekly drop of 10%.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline consumption is strong in summer, and there is a certain demand for replenishment at the terminal. In terms of diesel, the wheat harvest in the north is coming to an end, the rainfall in the south is more, the benefits at the demand end are still relatively limited, and the operation of stock up is reduced.

At present, the demand for refined oil is not good, the refinery inventory is increased, and the unit operation rate is reduced. As of June 10, the average operating load of the primary atmospheric and vacuum unit in Shandong Dilian was 75.29%, down 1.13 percentage points compared with last week.

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, thinks: in the short term, the demand of oil market is still subject to the epidemic. The implementation of production reduction in some OPEC countries, such as Iraq and Nigeria, remains to be discussed. The international oil price faces downward pressure. The demand for domestic refined oil weakens and the inventory of refineries increases. It is expected that the price of domestic refined oil will be reduced by 50-150 yuan / ton next week.

1、 Price trend

 
The ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, from 1643.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1653.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.61%, down 14.92% year-on-year from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 76.90 on June 5.

2、 Market analysis

According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the main factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1630 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1640 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1690 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of market demand, at present, North China and central China have entered the busy season of wheat harvest and agriculture, with a slight support for agricultural demand and a high enthusiasm for goods preparation; in terms of industrial demand, the procurement of downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises is more cautious, with more on-demand procurement, on-demand use, and moderate follow-up. Supply side: in recent years, the number of domestic manufacturers reducing production and overhauling has increased, and the spot supply is slightly lower than that in the earlier stage, which is good for the market. The short-term urea market is expected to rise slightly.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain: the urea upstream products in this week overall look slightly higher: the price of natural gas is slightly higher, with the quotation rising 0.40% from 2470.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2480.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 30.01% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia is slightly higher this week, with the quotation rising 1.65% from 3033.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3083.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.65% compared with the same period last year , down 9.05% on a year-on-year basis. On the whole, urea cost support is strong this week. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with a price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. The downstream rubber plate factory had a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, which had a positive impact on the price of urea.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of June, the urea market in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business association believe that at present, agricultural demand has risen slightly, downstream industry has a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

The domestic butadiene market was weak and fell. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 4140 yuan / ton, while the domestic butadiene market price at the end of the week was 3801 yuan / ton, down 8.19% in the week. The price fell 2.29% month on month and 56.09% year on year.

This week, the domestic butadiene market was dominated by weak finishing. Due to the demand gap in the downstream of North China caused by the maintenance status of Sinopec’s equipment, it was heard that part of the procurement of northern spot resources, and the improvement of northeast supplier transactions at the beginning of the week boosted the market slightly. However, in the near future, Iranian ships continue to arrive at the port. In addition, Nanjing Chengzhi and shenhuaning coal plant are expected to restart, so the market supply is difficult to support. At the same time, combined with Sinopec’s supply price reduction, the butadiene market atmosphere quickly weakens. Although the external price temporarily stabilized to support some merchants in East China who were reluctant to sell at a low price, the transaction of goods from Northeast China was not smooth, which aggravated the downstream cautious attitude, and the market delivery was cold.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China has been reduced by 500 yuan / ton, and 4000 yuan / ton has been implemented since June 1; Liaotong chemical has been priced for export, with a turnover of about 700 tons, with a base price of 3610 yuan / ton, no transaction; Nanjing Chengzhi’s 100000 ton / year butadiene oxidation and dehydrogenation unit was restarted on June 1, and then slowly recovered; Dalian Hengli’s 140000 ton / year butadiene unit has been in stable operation, with a listing price of 3680 yuan /T, down 100 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the 70000 ton / year butadiene plant in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, operated stably, and the listing price was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 3650 yuan / ton.

In terms of industrial chain: SBR: this week, the mainstream factory prices of domestic milk polymerized SBR sales companies have been falling, with the mainstream drop of 200 yuan / ton. The main factory supply price of domestic styrene butadiene 1502 dropped to 7800-8000 yuan / ton.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: in this cycle, the factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of mainstream domestic sales companies fell; the factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of mainstream domestic companies fell to 7300-7900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price fell to 200 yuan / ton.

Recently, the performance of the external market is stagnant, and some domestic businesses are reluctant to sell at a low price due to the impact of the holding cost. However, with the gradual end of the maintenance of some devices, it is difficult to improve the market supply and the weak market situation is difficult to change. But at the same time, the main downstream starts remain at a high level temporarily, and there is a bottom support in the face of demand. Under the supply and demand game, the butadiene analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to be weak in the short term, and the market will mainly be consolidated in small areas. It is suggested to pay attention to the internal and external transaction guidance.

In May, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued the market of last month and continued to fluctuate downward. According to the monitoring of the business association, since May, for example, in Shandong Province, the price of liquid ammonia has dropped by 5%. The continuous downward trend of the price of liquid ammonia is mainly due to the result of the game between high inventory and low demand. Under the pressure of the manufacturers, the factory price has been lowered repeatedly, and the market offers have been lower. The range is 200-400 yuan / ton, and the market offer is 2500-2700 yuan / ton near the end of the month.

Shandong and Hebei, the main producing areas, showed a significant decline. On the one hand, when the market enters may, under the background of weak demand, the high start-up rate has increased the pressure on the manufacturers’ inventory. According to statistics, the start-up rate of liquid ammonia manufacturers in May is still around 80%. Due to the influence of spring ploughing season in the early stage, the demand for liquid ammonia in China has increased sharply, and the market delivery situation is naturally smooth. Compared with other chemical products, liquid ammonia has stepped out of an independent upward market. However, with the end of the peak season, the market returns to calm, and the downstream procurement shrinks, leading to the gradual accumulation of liquid ammonia in the manufacturers. At present, the amount of ammonia in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other regions has been too high. Therefore, it is inevitable for the enterprises to reduce the price and inventory, and there are also enterprises to switch to urea to reduce the inventory pressure.

In May, the downstream demand of liquid ammonia also declined significantly, and it is in the off-season of fertilizer at present. Specifically, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises this week is generally below 50%. Since April, the operating rate has dropped again and again, which is basically the same as last year. As a rule, the domestic demand of phosphate fertilizer market ended in April and may, enterprises rely more on the boost of export, and the demand for liquid ammonia is still relatively stable. But this year, affected by the overseas epidemic, the export orders have shrunk, and the inventory of enterprises has been under pressure, and the phosphate fertilizer enterprises have changed to produce compound fertilizer, further weakening the demand for liquid ammonia. In May, the downstream monoammonium phosphate (- 4.03%) and diammonium phosphate (- 1.29%) all decreased in varying degrees (as shown in the figure above).

In the future, the business community believes that the current supply pressure is large, and the peak season has passed, the demand is low, and the imbalance between supply and demand leads to the market entering a relatively empty window period. However, with the limited production of the enterprise, the inventory will continue to be destocked, and the contradiction between supply and demand will gradually ease. It is expected that the price will still be under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, with the alleviation of the contradiction between supply and demand, the liquid ammonia market will return to temperature.