1、 Price trend

 
The ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, from 1643.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1653.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.61%, down 14.92% year-on-year from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 76.90 on June 5.

2、 Market analysis

According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the main factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1630 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1640 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1690 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of market demand, at present, North China and central China have entered the busy season of wheat harvest and agriculture, with a slight support for agricultural demand and a high enthusiasm for goods preparation; in terms of industrial demand, the procurement of downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises is more cautious, with more on-demand procurement, on-demand use, and moderate follow-up. Supply side: in recent years, the number of domestic manufacturers reducing production and overhauling has increased, and the spot supply is slightly lower than that in the earlier stage, which is good for the market. The short-term urea market is expected to rise slightly.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain: the urea upstream products in this week overall look slightly higher: the price of natural gas is slightly higher, with the quotation rising 0.40% from 2470.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2480.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 30.01% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia is slightly higher this week, with the quotation rising 1.65% from 3033.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3083.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.65% compared with the same period last year , down 9.05% on a year-on-year basis. On the whole, urea cost support is strong this week. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with a price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. The downstream rubber plate factory had a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, which had a positive impact on the price of urea.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of June, the urea market in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business association believe that at present, agricultural demand has risen slightly, downstream industry has a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.