1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 14300 yuan / ton on August 23 and 14450 yuan / ton on August 29. The price of caprolactam rose by 1.05% this week.

2、 Market analysis

As of August 29, Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price was 15000 yuan / ton, 400000 tons / year, the unit was started normally, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price is 14700 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14700 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14700 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price is 14200 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

This week, the raw material pure benzene stopped falling and turned up, and the price rose slightly compared with last week. The average price increased by 80 yuan / ton or 1.07% over last week. Crude oil rebounded strongly, and the oil distribution returned to above US $70 / barrel, supporting the recovery of pure benzene market mentality.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that at present, some caprolactam enterprises have been overhauled and their supply has been reduced. The raw material pure benzene rose and the cost support was good. Downstream polymerization plants have general demand and low enthusiasm. The caprolactam market is expected to be high and strong in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the market price was 7756 yuan / ton, and the weekend average price was 7782 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.33%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of business society, propylene prices continued to rise slightly this week. The mainstream price in Shandong market was 7780-7800 yuan / ton. The manufacturer adjusted the price flexibly according to its own inventory. The market is willing to push up, but the rising power is insufficient. The inventory situation of the enterprise is acceptable, the delivery of goods is stable, and the price is stable.

As of the closing on August 26: in October, WTI fell 0.94 to US $67.42/barrel, down 1.4%; Brent fell 1.18, or 1.6%, to $71.07 a barrel in October. Sc2110 rose 3.5 yuan / barrel to 432.5 yuan / barrel. Oil prices rose in retaliation this week, up 8.5% during the week.

The price of polypropylene was stable this week, the demand of terminal enterprises continued to be insufficient, and the hoarding operation in advance in the peak season has not been started. The operating rate is low, the supply side is slightly positive, and there is no rise or fall.

Acrylic acid fell from high to low this week. Due to high prices, there was resistance to high prices in the downstream, and the enthusiasm for inquiry was general. It was mainly just in need of procurement, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with a decrease of 2.14% during the week.

Isopropanol stabilized this week. After a sharp increase last week, the market sorted and operated without rise or fall.

From the demand market this week, the demand follow-up is sluggish, most downstream products are in a stable or downward channel, and the demand support is insufficient, resulting in the weak rise of propylene price.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business agency believe that with the sharp rise in crude oil prices and the arrival of the traditional peak demand season in September, the propylene market is expected to usher in a wave of price rise.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price fell slightly this week. As of August 20, the nickel price fell slightly by 4.09%, the spot price was 142050 yuan / ton, down 4.09% from 148100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 10.86% from the beginning of the week and up 22.74% year-on-year.

Macro factors: this week, as the macroeconomic data in July showed that the downward pressure on the domestic economy increased and the domestic economic data were not optimistic, which triggered the demand for risk avoidance, the US dollar index rose sharply and suppressed the copper price. In addition, the market’s concern about the resurgence of the epidemic and future economic development has led to the continued decline of international oil prices and dragged down non-ferrous metals.

Supply: in June, the import volume of nickel ore and concentrate was 4.8383 million tons, with a month on month increase of 31% and a year-on-year increase of 40%; From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 16.4917 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 32.8%. The Philippine rainy season ended and the import volume continued to recover. Under the tight overall supply pattern of nickel mines, the FOB price of nickel mines in the Philippines is high.

Downstream: Although the output of stainless steel has declined slightly, it has high production enthusiasm under the stimulation of profits, and pays attention to the news of production restriction; The price of nickel sulfate was slightly corrected, and the demand for nickel by new energy vehicles was still boosted.

To sum up: dragged down by macro factors this week, nonferrous metal prices are under overall pressure. After the rainy season in the Philippines, the supply is slightly loose and the downstream price has been corrected. However, LME nickel inventory continues to decline, which supports the nickel price. Nickel price is expected to maintain a wide shock pattern in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market fell, some prices in the domestic praseodymium neodymium rare earth market fell, and the legitimate prices in the heavy rare earth market fell. According to the rare earth sector index of the business society, the rare earth index was 595 points on August 19, down 2 points from yesterday and 40.50% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), It is 119.56% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the prices of some rare earths in China have fallen recently, the prices of mainstream commodities in the rare earth market have fallen slightly recently, and the rare earth market has fallen. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of domestic neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium alloy declined, and the price trend of praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium was temporarily stable. As of August 20, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 615000 yuan / ton, down 1.2% this week; The price of neodymium is 765000 yuan / ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 612500 yuan / ton, down 1.76% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 765000 yuan / ton, down 0.65% this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 830000 yuan / ton, and the price trend is stable this week; The price of praseodymium oxide was 640000 yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 0.78% this week. All products fell to varying degrees, and the light rare earth market fell.

The trend of products in the domestic rare earth market has declined, the supply and demand structure has not changed much, and the demand for high-end magnetic materials is normal. In the near future, China’s rare earth quota on the supply side may be steadily increased, and the supply rigidity is optimized. In addition, with the implementation of the new energy efficiency standards, the proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners in domestic household appliances, the penetration rate of Nd-Fe-B continues to increase, and the demand side is relatively normal. The sales of new energy vehicles are relatively normal, and the demand for rare earths is high. The main rare earth raw materials of high-performance Nd-Fe-B are light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles are still good. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “China Automobile Association”) released the latest production and sales data. In July, the domestic automobile production and sales reached 1863000 and 1864000 respectively, down 3.0% and 4.1% month on month and 15.5% and 11.9% year-on-year. Recently, the downstream demand is general, and the market price of light rare earth has dropped slightly.

As can be seen from the trend chart, the price trend of dysprosium Series in China fell slightly. As of the 20th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.635 million yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 2.04% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.59 million yuan / ton, the price trend decreased by 2.45%, the price of metal dysprosium was 3.42 million yuan / ton, and the price decreased by 1.44% this week. The price of domestic terbium series fell, the price of domestic terbium oxide was 8.15 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 10.5 million yuan / ton. The transaction in the domestic rare earth market is normal, and the leading magnetic material factory is not active in purchasing, which makes the domestic heavy rare earth market price drop slightly. However, Myanmar prohibits export, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, the source of imported goods has been greatly reduced, the supply in the heavy rare earth market is general, the downstream procurement is not active recently, and the market price has dropped slightly.

The recent notice on carrying out industrial energy conservation supervision in 2021 emphasizes the comprehensive sorting and investigation of enterprises in key industries such as iron and steel, nonferrous metal smelting, petrochemical industry and building materials, and the special supervision on the implementation of mandatory energy consumption quota standards per unit product, so as to finally realize the full coverage of energy conservation supervision of enterprises in key industries during the 14th Five Year Plan period. In addition, Wang Jiangping, Vice Minister of industry and information technology, said at the video conference on industrial policies and regulations of industry and information system last week that efforts should be made to optimize the development environment of industrial enterprises, accelerate the legislation of telecommunications law, and promote the promulgation of rare earth regulations as soon as possible. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the accelerated promulgation of the regulations on the administration of rare earth will, on the one hand, make the industry have laws to abide by and promote the rare earth industry chain to embark on the road of virtuous circle development; On the other hand, it reflects China’s determination to strictly control the supply order of rare earth and support the price of rare earth as an important strategic resource. The overall demand for rare earth products is OK, the downstream demand is normal recently, and the price of domestic rare earth market has fallen slightly.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning downstream of rare earth, the demand continues. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply starts normally. Recently, the on-site transaction has dropped and the procurement is not active. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, expects that the rare earth market price may decline slightly in the later stage.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong this week was temporarily stable, with the quotation of 263.33 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 20.20% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the hydrochloric acid market was temporarily stable this week, and the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 69.30 on August 20.

The upstream support is general and the downstream procurement is weak

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the manufacturer’s quotation in the hydrochloric acid market this week is temporarily stable and the overall market is general. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 400 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily; The quotation of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wen Shui is 230 yuan / ton at the weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quoted 160 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak, while the high market price of downstream ammonium chloride has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. Difficult delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a big problem.

Future forecast

The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine is general, the cost support is general, the market of downstream ammonium chloride is high, and the downstream purchase intention is not strong. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to a slight shock in the near future.

The spot tin market price (8.13-8.20) fluctuated downward this week. The average price of the domestic market was 242100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 239891.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.91%.

On August 21, the tin commodity index was 122.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.75% from the highest point of 125.66 in the cycle (2021-08-18), and up 185.11% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In terms of futures, the US dollar index strengthened all the way under the influence of factors such as the reduction of stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve, up to a new high in half a year. The non-ferrous metal market was generally under pressure. Lunxi led the decline on Friday under the dual influence of 130 tons of LME inventory increase. As of the closing of Shanghai tin on the 20th, the settlement price of the main contract of Shanghai tin 2109 was 231240 yuan / ton, down 3.89%, and the overall decline was far less than that of Lunxi.

At present, the domestic spot tin inventory is mainly de stocking, and the overall supply is still tight. Downstream enterprises still maintain just needed procurement, but after the sharp drop in prices this weekend, the spot market inquiry and receiving goods are positive, the transaction atmosphere is significantly improved compared with the previous period, the prices of relevant smelters are falling, the market trading is active, and the overall willingness to receive goods in China is still strong. The production of manufacturers in Yunnan is relatively stable, the supply is better than that in the early stage, and some sources of goods will gradually enter the market, which will alleviate the current supply shortage.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 33rd week of 2021 (8.16-8.20), there are 5 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were metallic silicon (7.58%), titanium concentrate (4.65%) and gold (0.71%). A total of 13 commodities fell month on month, and the top three products were copper (- 4.52%), nickel (- 4.09%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (- 2.45%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.33%. Most nonferrous commodity prices fell this week.

In the future, the business community believes that under the current tight supply, the future tin price will remain high and oscillatory.

Aluminum fluoride market is stable

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride is stable this week, and the market of aluminum fluoride is stable. As of August 20, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8666.67 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of aluminum fluoride on August 13 last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%. The aluminum fluoride Market operated smoothly this week.

Aluminum ingot price high shock adjustment

According to the monitoring of business society, the aluminum commodity index on August 19 was 112.30, down 1.49 points from yesterday, down 1.31% from the highest point 113.79 in the cycle (2021-08-18), and up 107.12% from the lowest point 54.22 on November 24, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). This week, the price of aluminum ingots first rose and then fell. On the 18th, the price of aluminum ingots reached a new high, and then the price of aluminum ingots fell. The price of aluminum ingots increased by less than 0.2% this week. Overall, the price of aluminum ingots this week was relatively stable. The aluminum ingot Market is adjusted at a high level, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride price is still weak.

Hydrofluoric acid maintained an upward trend this week

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose this week, but the overall hydrofluoric acid market was stable. The price increase of hydrofluoric acid in August was less than 0.8%, and the hydrofluoric acid market remained stable. Hydrofluoric acid market is stable, and the cost of aluminum fluoride is stable.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite in the upstream of aluminum fluoride industry chain are basically stable this week, the prices of aluminum ingots in the downstream hit a new high, but they are generally stable, and the aluminum fluoride industry chain is strong and stable. Generally speaking, the rising power of aluminum fluoride still exists, which stimulates the rise of aluminum fluoride price, but the rising support is limited, which is difficult to stimulate the rise of aluminum fluoride price. In the future, the aluminum fluoride market is strong and stable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 13, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 14833 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 9 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 15233 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 400 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.63% within the week; Compared with the price on August 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 15100 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 267 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.77%.

This week, affected by the poor transaction of high-end price, the high-end price of n-butanol in domestic Shandong market has been declining since the beginning of the week. On the 9th of the week, the market price of n-butanol in domestic Shandong was around 15000-15400 yuan / ton. On the 13th of the weekend, the market price of n-butanol in domestic Shandong was around 14700-15100 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 300 yuan / ton. At present, After the price of n-butanol went down, the market inquiry atmosphere was good, the low-end price transaction was good, and the downstream butyl users filled their positions at a low price. Most of the purchases were just in need of replenishment. At present, the high-end price transaction in the market is still general. As of the 13th of the weekend, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 14833 yuan / ton. Compared with the price at the beginning of this week, the average price was reduced by 400 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.63% during the week.

Upstream, in late July, the domestic propylene oxide price fell. In August, propylene oxide stopped falling and rose, and the market situation continued to rise. As of August 13, the reference price of propylene oxide was 17025 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.45% compared with August 1 (16300 yuan / ton).

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, after the price of n-butanol goes down, the goods taking situation in the downstream has improved, the transaction atmosphere has improved slightly, the inventory level of some factories has decreased, and the supply pressure has a certain support for the future market of n-butanol. Therefore, the n-butanol analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong can remain stable or slightly callback.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price fell first and then rose sharply this week. As of August 13, the nickel price rose sharply by 4.49%, the spot price was 148133.33 yuan / ton, up 4.49% from 141766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 15.61% from the beginning of the week and up 29.75% year-on-year. The nickel price has been falling weakly since August, until it rebounded from its low in recent two days, basically recovering its decline since August.

At the beginning of the week, as the US non farm data in July was better than market expectations, the Fed narrowed its expectations, resulting in a general decline in metal prices and a slight decline in nickel prices; Later, as the US Senate passed the US $1 trillion infrastructure bill, it will boost metal demand and drive the metal rebound.

Supply: in the early stage, the supply of ferronickel was limited due to the counterattack of the epidemic in Indonesia. In addition, due to the lack of transportation capacity, the price of ferronickel directly broke through the high point in 2017, forcing the continuous general rise of global nickel mines and strong cost support. At present, the overseas epidemic is serious, the epidemic in the Philippines and Indonesia affects export transportation, the return of raw materials is reduced, and the overall supply is still tight.

Downstream: in June, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 256000, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times. From January to June, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 2 times year-on-year, and the demand for new energy was at a high level; Downstream domestic stainless steel production and sales continued to rise, driving the demand for nickel. Low nickel inventory also supports nickel prices.

To sum up: Recently, the US Senate passed the US $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which will boost metal demand. The overall supply and demand is in a tight pattern, which has strong support for nickel price. However, there is still some pressure to break through the previous high of 150000. It is expected that the short-term high shock pattern of nickel price will be dominated.

In the second week of August, the focus of Shandong propane market continued to move upward, with an obvious increase. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 4900.75 yuan / ton on August 8 and 4995.75 yuan / ton on August 13. The overall increase rate in the week was 1.94%, an increase of 5.21% compared with August 1.

As of August 13, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region Specifications August 13th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4750-4950 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4950-5000 yuan / ton

Shandong region Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4953-5080 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4810-4910 yuan / ton

Central China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4900-5100 yuan / ton

In the second week of August, there was a certain deviation in the trend of propane Market in the South and North. The northern market pushed up obviously. The southern market stabilized first and then consolidated, and the price was loose. However, the overall price of domestic propane market was still at a relatively high level. This week, Shandong propane market rose significantly in the early part of the week, and the price fell slightly by the end of the week, and the mainstream price is still around 5000 yuan / ton. In the early part of the week, the market transaction atmosphere was good, the downstream concentrated on entering the market for replenishment, actively entering the market, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, the inventory was mostly at a low level, the mentality was strong, and the price continued to rise. In the later stage, with the end of centralized replenishment, the propane price rose to a high level, the downstream delisting consumed inventory, and the market transaction atmosphere was lighter than that in the earlier stage. In addition, the international crude oil trend fell and the bad market mentality, the propane market price in Shandong fell slightly on Friday.

Saudi Aramco announced in August that both propylene and butane rose. Propane was 660 USD / T, up 40 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 655 USD / T, up 35 USD / T compared with the previous month.

At present, the strong port price has brought some support to the market, but the propane price has risen to a relatively high level, the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices, and the off-season has not passed, and the terminal demand is still weak, which has significantly restrained the rise of propane. The current trend of international crude oil is weak, which has brought some bad to the market. It is expected that there is no lack of possibility of small decline in the propane Market in the short term, We still need to pay attention to the trend of international crude oil.