1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price fell first and then rose sharply this week. As of August 13, the nickel price rose sharply by 4.49%, the spot price was 148133.33 yuan / ton, up 4.49% from 141766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 15.61% from the beginning of the week and up 29.75% year-on-year. The nickel price has been falling weakly since August, until it rebounded from its low in recent two days, basically recovering its decline since August.

At the beginning of the week, as the US non farm data in July was better than market expectations, the Fed narrowed its expectations, resulting in a general decline in metal prices and a slight decline in nickel prices; Later, as the US Senate passed the US $1 trillion infrastructure bill, it will boost metal demand and drive the metal rebound.

Supply: in the early stage, the supply of ferronickel was limited due to the counterattack of the epidemic in Indonesia. In addition, due to the lack of transportation capacity, the price of ferronickel directly broke through the high point in 2017, forcing the continuous general rise of global nickel mines and strong cost support. At present, the overseas epidemic is serious, the epidemic in the Philippines and Indonesia affects export transportation, the return of raw materials is reduced, and the overall supply is still tight.

Downstream: in June, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 256000, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times. From January to June, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 2 times year-on-year, and the demand for new energy was at a high level; Downstream domestic stainless steel production and sales continued to rise, driving the demand for nickel. Low nickel inventory also supports nickel prices.

To sum up: Recently, the US Senate passed the US $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which will boost metal demand. The overall supply and demand is in a tight pattern, which has strong support for nickel price. However, there is still some pressure to break through the previous high of 150000. It is expected that the short-term high shock pattern of nickel price will be dominated.