According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic asphalt market rebounded and sorted out in April. From April 1st to 27th, the average price of asphalt producers in Shandong region increased from 3713 yuan/ton to 3803 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.42%, and the price decreased by 5.78% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, due to the significant increase in crude oil, cost support was strengthened, driving up prices in various regions. With the influence of large-scale rainfall factors, market demand is slightly sluggish, and the upward trend of the asphalt market has stopped. In the first half of the month, due to the continuous rise in crude oil, cost support was strengthened, driving prices in various regions to rise slightly. The market just needs to recover, and some projects have started construction, but the overall situation is still limited. In the latter half of this month, supported by the high volatility of cost side crude oil, the main refineries raised their asphalt prices twice a week, driving up prices in various regions. With the slight decline in crude oil, asphalt prices in some regions have all weakened. The asphalt market is highly volatile.

On the cost side, since OPEC, an oil producing country, announced an additional significant production reduction on April 3, oil prices have continued to hover at high levels, boosted by positive supply side factors. Especially with the decline in inflation levels in the United States, the market is hoping that the Federal Reserve will relax its tight monetary policy, and the pressure on the demand side will ease. The WTI once exceeded $83 per barrel, reaching a high in the past five months. The domestic oil industry chain product market has been affected and the market has been relatively warm.

On the supply side, the conversion of Liaohe Petrochemical to residual oil, the planned maintenance of Hebei Xinhai, and intermittent production of some major refineries in East China have led to a decrease in capacity utilization. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, with a positive impact on the supply side.

On the demand side, recent rainfall and price drops in some regions have led to a slightly flat market demand; With the improvement of weather and the increase in project construction, market demand is slowly improving.

In the future market forecast, the international crude oil high level correction will drive the downward trend of asphalt futures, and the actual spot demand will be slightly flat. The mid week drop in price has intensified the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the short-term domestic asphalt market will be mainly volatile and organized.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market temporarily stabilized in April 2023, with prices slightly rising. The average price in the domestic market was 15165 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 15235 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.46%.

On April 25th, the lead commodity index was 92.84, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 30.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and an increase of 24.40% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

On April 25th, the base metal index was 1228 points, a decrease of 7 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.01% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.28% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and prices fluctuated after the holiday.

In April 2023, the lead ingot market fluctuated and rose, but the overall trend remained in the off-season trend with a small fluctuation range, ranging from 15100 to 15350 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.46%. The macro market has not fluctuated much this month, and lead prices are still closely following the macro trend. However, due to its weak fundamentals, the volatility is relatively small. From a supply perspective, the current supply at the mining end is still tight. The number of maintenance companies in the Henan region of the refinery increased this week, but some companies in other regions started driving, so the overall operating rate has not changed much this week. In terms of demand, downstream battery companies still maintain off-season demand. Based on the current operating situation, there is little change in the overall operation of downstream battery companies, and they still maintain a demand for lead ingots. At present, the upstream and downstream of lead are still in a seasonal off-season, with relatively light market trading and average actual transaction performance. In particular, the overall performance of the downstream market has been slightly weak recently. With the warming weather, downstream storage companies still have expectations of further lowering their operating rates. Therefore, the market’s future expectations are weak, and the spot market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in overall light trading. Overall, in the off-season outlook, the overall trend remains weak and volatile, with limited market volatility in the off-season due to the weak supply and demand pattern.

On the 11th, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced the production and sales situation of the automobile industry in March 2023: In March, China’s automobile production and sales showed growth month on month and year-on-year. The production and sales of automobiles in that month reached 2.584 million and 2.451 million, respectively, with a month on month increase of 27.2% and 24%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.3% and 9.7%, respectively.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said that from January to March, China’s automobile production and sales totaled 6.21 million units and 6.076 million units, down 4.3% and 6.7% respectively year on year, showing a slight decline compared with the same period. The automobile terminal market is still relatively weak, domestic effective demand has not been fully released, and the recovery of automobile consumption is relatively lagging.

From 2012 to 2022, there has been a significant increase in China’s lead production in the past decade, especially since 2015. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the lead production in December 2022 was 756000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; The cumulative lead production from January to December was 7.811 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%.

The latest data report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in January 2023, global refined lead production was 1.3468 million tons, consumption was 1.3583 million tons, and supply shortage was 11500 tons. In January 2023, the global lead ore production was 547300 tons.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic carbon black N220 quoted 10233 yuan/ton on April 22, and the domestic carbon black market price slightly declined this week.

Cost: coal tar prices fell sharply this week. Affected by the decline of coal tar market prices, enterprises had a large inventory backlog, which depressed coal tar market prices. Auction prices in many regions fell. At present, the shipment is average, mainly based on early orders, with a pessimistic atmosphere on the market and sluggish market demand.

Supply and demand side: Currently, the overall operating rate of carbon black enterprises remains stable, with most carbon black enterprises maintaining normal operating levels. Some factory equipment maintenance is affected by the downward price of raw materials, and the carbon black market continues to fluctuate. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and many are bearish on the future market of carbon black, resulting in weak supply and demand in the carbon black market.

In terms of downstream tire companies, the overall operating rate remains stable, but due to the weak fluctuations in carbon black prices, there are currently no significant positive signs on the market. Trading has cooled down, and the market may still operate weakly.

Overall, the significant decline in raw material prices has weakened the support for carbon black cost prices. Although major downstream tire companies are operating well, they are bearish on the carbon black market and there is currently no positive trend on the market. Overall, it is expected that carbon black will operate steadily, moderately, and weakly in the short term.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week. The average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong this week was 9114.29 yuan/ton. Weekend prices decreased by 26.69% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 23, the isooctanol commodity index was 67.02, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 51.26% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 90.67% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the market quotations of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong this week are temporarily stable.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7390.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7070.60 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.33%. Weekend prices have decreased by 16.04% compared to the same period last year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isooctanol was negatively affected.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP has slightly decreased this week. The price of DOP dropped from 9917.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9875.83 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.42%. Weekend prices have decreased by 16.40% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Future prospects

In late April, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly declined, and downstream demand is weak. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of April 23, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate was 76000 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the lithium iron phosphate market was mainly operating smoothly, and the overall price remained stable. The mainstream price range was around 76000 yuan/ton, mainly for contract customers, and new orders were not accepted.

Lithium iron phosphate is mainly operated in a weak and stable manner, with a current mainstream price of 76000 yuan/ton. The price trend of upstream lithium carbonate is weak, and there is a lack of support for the cost side of lithium iron phosphate. Downstream procurement is just needed, and there is insufficient demand. The focus of negotiations is flat, and the order is slow. Manufacturers only supply old customers with goods. Currently, the operating rate is normal, and logistics are smooth. Lithium iron phosphate is operating in a weak position in the short term.

Chemical Commodity Index: On April 22, the chemical index stood at 907 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.21% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 51.67% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Analysts from Business Society believe that the stable operation of the lithium iron phosphate market is the main focus in the short term.

This week’s lead market (4.7-4.14) fluctuated. The average price in the domestic market was 15230 yuan/ton last weekend, and it is flat at 15230 yuan/ton this weekend.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and prices fluctuated after the holiday.

In terms of the futures market, the lead price fluctuated this week, with limited overall volatility. In terms of the spot market, the trend this week remained consistent with that of Shanghai Lead, with overall volatility. Fundamentally speaking, there has been a simultaneous maintenance and resumption of production in primary lead enterprises in the near future. The production of primary lead has not changed much recently, and the production of recycled lead has been on the low side recently. The supply of lead ingots has slightly weakened. In terms of demand, downstream battery companies are still in a seasonal off-season. Currently, the overall inventory of enterprises is accumulated, and the demand for lead ingots is weak. In the future, the market still maintains a weak and volatile trend, with limited market volatility in the off-season due to small changes in supply and demand.

On April 15th, the base metal index stood at 1229 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.95% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.43% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2023 (4.10-4.14), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices. Among them, there was 1 commodity that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were magnesium (25.38%), silver (4.82%), and nickel (4.53%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decrease, and 5 products with a decrease of over 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products in the decline were neodymium oxide (-8.26%), praseodymium oxide (-7.48%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-6.00%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.27%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the natural rubber market in China has been fluctuating and gloomy since the end of January 2023. The market remains pessimistic: domestic (Baodao) full latex in East China reported 12250 yuan/ton on January 1, 11260 yuan/ton on April 14, a sharp drop of 1000 yuan/ton in three and a half months, a decrease of 8.08%; Among them, the highest price since 2023 is 12710 yuan/ton on January 30, and the lowest price is 11210 yuan/ton on April 7, with a maximum amplitude of 11.8% during the period. The price of 11210 yuan/ton on April 7 is the lowest in the natural rubber market since the market price reached the lowest level of 11170 yuan/ton on October 31, 2022.

Influencing factors:

Supply side

Firstly, from the perspective of new rubber production. Currently, most of the main foreign production areas of natural rubber are in a period of shutdown; Our domestic region has entered a seasonal cutting period, but Yunnan has severe drought and powdery mildew conditions, resulting in delayed cutting. Hainan has started producing a small amount of glue, and the purchase price of concentrated milk is higher than that of whole milk. The production is not enough to affect the supply side.

Secondly, from the perspective of imports, exports, and inventory. The export volume of rubber from Southeast Asian major producing countries to us has increased year-on-year. Up to now, the import of rubber from major ports in China continues to arrive, while downstream product enterprises have unfavorable orders and purchase as needed. China’s social inventory, as well as the accumulation of natural rubber in the Qingdao area and local bonded areas, continues to accumulate.

Demand side

Firstly, the order cannot keep up. Statistical data shows that in the week of April 9th, the operating rates of all steel and semi steel tires for tire companies in Shandong region increased by more than 13% year-on-year, but most of the previous orders were in the early stages. It is reported that due to late orders not keeping up, the current operating rate of enterprises has decreased compared to the previous period.

Secondly, there is a shortage of car consumption. Ordinary cars: According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to March, the production and sales of automobiles in China reached 6.21 million and 6.076 million respectively, down 4.3% and 6.7% year on year, respectively. On the whole, the domestic effective demand of the automobile market has not been fully released compared with the slight decline in the same period. Passenger cars: According to the China Passenger Car Association, preliminary statistics show that from January to March 2023, the retail sales of China’s passenger car market reached 4.275 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13%; National passenger car manufacturers wholesale 5.021 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 8%.

Future Market Forecast:

Compared to previous years, global natural rubber supply is still at an annual low point. At present, domestic production areas that have reached the cutting season have not been able to cut effectively. However, in the early stage, imported orders for rubber continue to arrive at the port and downstream product factories have insufficient follow-up after inventory consumption, resulting in a continuous accumulation of natural rubber in stock; The operating rate of downstream product enterprises has occasionally increased, but its sustainability is not strong. The trading volume of the automotive/passenger vehicle market has decreased, and the market’s bullish atmosphere is not strong. The market is mainly bullish in the short term. At the same time, there have also been some positive factors in the market, including an increase in tire production in the first quarter, a significant increase in sales of new energy vehicles, as well as better sales from multiple tire factories and an increase in tire prices.

Based on comprehensive analysis, in the future, the natural rubber market will continue to decline in the face of abundant stock and lack of large-scale improvement in demand. If combined with a significant increase in new rubber production in domestic and foreign production areas starting from next month, orders will continue to follow poorly, and the market for natural rubber will eventually be difficult to be optimistic for a long time.

According to bulk data monitoring by Business Society, the trend of acetic acid prices in March was relatively strong and upward. At the beginning of the month, the average price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 3300 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.76% within the month, and the price decreased by 36.78% year-on-year.

In the first half of the month, after the rise of the acetic acid market, the market remained stable and the supply of acetic acid decreased. In the later stage, downstream purchases and purchases followed up smoothly according to demand, and market trading was still acceptable. Enterprises were wait-and-see, and the price of acetic acid remained stable; In the second half of the month, the price of acetic acid first fell and then rose, and the market supply and demand were in a game. In the early stage, the market supply was sufficient, while downstream demand was weak, leading to a downward trend in price trends. In the later stage, some manufacturers in the market shut down their devices, and acetic acid manufacturers rose along the trend. The acetic acid market sorted and rose. The overall price of acetic acid fluctuated and increased in March.

The raw material methanol market is fluctuating and declining, with an average domestic market price of 2561 yuan/ton at the end of the month, which is a decrease of 6.37% compared to the price of 2735 yuan/ton on March 1. The price of raw coal has fallen, the cost side is bearish for the methanol market, the supply side has accumulated methanol inventory, and the demand side has not followed up enough. The market is currently without positive support, and the methanol price market is weak and downward.

The downstream acetic anhydride market fluctuated and rose in March, with a price of 5462.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.80% compared to the price of 5262.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material acetic acid has fluctuated and increased, and cost support is good. In March, Yanzhou Mining Company’s acetic anhydride equipment started at a low level, and the supply of acetic anhydride has decreased. The industry has a positive attitude, and the company’s quotation has been quite high, indicating an upward trend in the acetic anhydride market.

In the future, analysts from the Business Society believe that although there are device shutdowns and maintenance in the acetic acid market, the overall production capacity utilization rate is high, and the supply of goods is sufficient. In addition, upstream and downstream purchases are often followed up according to demand, resulting in limited transactions. There is a lack of effective positive news on the market, and the rise of acetic acid prices is weak. The market supply and demand are deadlocked. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will operate steadily, and there will be follow-up changes under specific attention.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business News Agency, as of March 31, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 20833.33 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 7.76% compared to the price of 19333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 20.19%

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 31, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38% compared to the price of 24666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 2.00% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In the first ten days of March, the domestic price of chloroform continued to rise. As of March 11, the price of chloroform had increased by 7.81% during the month, while the price of hydrofluoric acid had slightly decreased by 0.58%. The upstream raw material cost of R22 continued to rise, resulting in a rise in raw material costs. Manufacturers have successively raised the factory price of R22, driving the domestic market price of R22 to continue to rise.

In late March, the domestic price of chloroform rose and fell back. The price of chloroform fell 16.41% during the month, while the price of hydrofluoric acid stopped falling and rebounded, with a slight increase of 0.29% during the month. Overall, the overall cost of raw materials in the upstream of R22 rose and fell back, and a further decline in cost will to some extent suppress the future market price of R22.

As the domestic temperature gradually rises, the downstream demand for refrigerant continues to rise, and the steady increase in downstream demand will provide some support for the price of domestic refrigerant R22.

In March, the overall domestic trichloroethylene price remained at a relatively low level with a slight fluctuation, while hydrofluoric acid prices rebounded slightly at the end of the month. As of March 31, hydrofluoric acid prices rose slightly within the month by 0.29%. Overall, the cost of upstream raw materials for R134a rose slightly in March, coupled with the overall low inventory of domestic R134a, and the continued recovery of refrigerant demand after the gradual rise in temperature. The overall domestic R134a price rose slightly in March.

In terms of raw materials, although the domestic hydrofluoric acid price rebounded slightly in March, the overall hydrofluoric acid price rose out of the low level, and the slight rebound in hydrofluoric acid price has limited support for the future price of R134a.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business News believe that the cost of raw materials has risen and fallen, and the peak demand season for refrigerants is approaching. The market is expected to continue to rise in the domestic R22 market due to a lack of momentum and a low cost of raw materials. It is expected that the overall price of the R22 market in April will undergo a slight correction and move forward in a volatile manner. Supported by factors such as a slight rebound in raw material costs, a recovery in costs, and the peak demand season, it is expected that the overall domestic R134a price will be stable and strong in April.