According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market temporarily stabilized in April 2023, with prices slightly rising. The average price in the domestic market was 15165 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 15235 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.46%.

On April 25th, the lead commodity index was 92.84, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 30.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and an increase of 24.40% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

On April 25th, the base metal index was 1228 points, a decrease of 7 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.01% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.28% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and prices fluctuated after the holiday.

In April 2023, the lead ingot market fluctuated and rose, but the overall trend remained in the off-season trend with a small fluctuation range, ranging from 15100 to 15350 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.46%. The macro market has not fluctuated much this month, and lead prices are still closely following the macro trend. However, due to its weak fundamentals, the volatility is relatively small. From a supply perspective, the current supply at the mining end is still tight. The number of maintenance companies in the Henan region of the refinery increased this week, but some companies in other regions started driving, so the overall operating rate has not changed much this week. In terms of demand, downstream battery companies still maintain off-season demand. Based on the current operating situation, there is little change in the overall operation of downstream battery companies, and they still maintain a demand for lead ingots. At present, the upstream and downstream of lead are still in a seasonal off-season, with relatively light market trading and average actual transaction performance. In particular, the overall performance of the downstream market has been slightly weak recently. With the warming weather, downstream storage companies still have expectations of further lowering their operating rates. Therefore, the market’s future expectations are weak, and the spot market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in overall light trading. Overall, in the off-season outlook, the overall trend remains weak and volatile, with limited market volatility in the off-season due to the weak supply and demand pattern.

On the 11th, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced the production and sales situation of the automobile industry in March 2023: In March, China’s automobile production and sales showed growth month on month and year-on-year. The production and sales of automobiles in that month reached 2.584 million and 2.451 million, respectively, with a month on month increase of 27.2% and 24%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.3% and 9.7%, respectively.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said that from January to March, China’s automobile production and sales totaled 6.21 million units and 6.076 million units, down 4.3% and 6.7% respectively year on year, showing a slight decline compared with the same period. The automobile terminal market is still relatively weak, domestic effective demand has not been fully released, and the recovery of automobile consumption is relatively lagging.

From 2012 to 2022, there has been a significant increase in China’s lead production in the past decade, especially since 2015. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the lead production in December 2022 was 756000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; The cumulative lead production from January to December was 7.811 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%.

The latest data report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in January 2023, global refined lead production was 1.3468 million tons, consumption was 1.3583 million tons, and supply shortage was 11500 tons. In January 2023, the global lead ore production was 547300 tons.