1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by calcium carbide method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on February 29 was 6337.5 yuan / ton, down 7.14% compared with 6825 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (1 day), up 0.6% compared with the same period last year. On March 4, the PVC commodity index was 79.04, up 0.16 points from yesterday, down 20.96% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 35.64% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Market analysis
Products: February PVC futures are quite volatile, occasionally rebounding, but it is difficult to last. PVC spot price continued to fall, the market is weak. According to the communication between Israel and Israel, during the Spring Festival, PVC manufacturers will reduce the load operation and continuous production. After the Spring Festival, with the commencement of downstream enterprises, the demand increases and PVC inventory gradually decreases. This year, affected by the public health events, the resumption of work of PVC downstream enterprises was delayed again and again, and some construction industries were delayed to April. The demand side of PVC market started slowly and the market trend was not good. At the same time, the transportation is not smooth, PVC sales are difficult, market trading is light, transaction is limited, some production enterprises do not offer, the market is intertwined with many empty, middle traders have a negative mentality, the shipping pressure is large, PVC price pressure is downward. Near the end of the month, with the gradual easing of transportation and the recovery of PVC downstream products enterprises, the market began to have a trace of vitality, but overall downstream demand is still weak, which is difficult to boost PVC. At present, PVC inventory is still at a high level, the number of re manufacturers has increased, the supply is sufficient, the demand side maintains just need to purchase, many enterprises have certain stock before the festival, the demand is not high, the overall situation of supply exceeding demand in PVC market is still the same, the market is weak as normal, if the demand side cannot be recovered, PVC manufacturers may enter the spring maintenance state in advance. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of March 4, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6000-6450 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 6150-6320 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is between 6180-6350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 6180-6200 yuan / ton. The real deal can be negotiated.
In terms of Futures: March 3, the main PVC v2005 contract hit a high and fell back, closing at 6270 yuan / ton, which was + 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day; trading volume was 102972, – 8449 hands; positions were 198083, – 3732 hands, basis – 50 yuan, – 40 yuan; 5-9 price difference – 115 yuan, + 0 yuan.
Industry chain: at present, crude oil price is over falling and rebounding. On the one hand, it is affected by the boost of external macro good news. On the demand side, the pessimistic atmosphere of crude oil demand outlook remains unchanged. The three institutions generally lowered the 2020 crude oil demand growth expectation, with a large downward adjustment range. It is expected that crude oil will still fluctuate broadly in the near future under the influence of many market interference factors In the medium and long term, crude oil is not likely to reverse the market and rise sharply. In terms of calcium carbide, the factory price slightly increased, downstream customers’ procurement enthusiasm was general, and the supply of calcium carbide was tight. The aftermarket calcium carbide slightly shakes.
Industry: price monitoring of business agencies: in February 2020, there are 0 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in rubber and plastic sector. There are 14 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 10 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 62.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are natural rubber (- 15.79%), cis-1-polybutadiene rubber (- 13.22%) and styrene butadiene rubber (- 12.94%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 6.24%.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of the business club think that: at present, the demand side of PVC has improved to some extent, but it is still starting slowly, the trading is average, the spot market price of PVC is generally stable, some enterprises adjust their quotations according to their own, and expect that PVC still has a risk of falling in the short term, and pay attention to the macro level and the recovery of the end enterprises in a timely manner.