I. price trend
The domestic butadiene market fell sharply this week (10.14-10.18). According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 11562 yuan / ton, and the domestic butadiene price at the end of the week was 10513 yuan / ton, down 9.07% in the week, 4.53% month on month, 0.26% year-on-year.
II. Analysis of influencing factors
Products: this week (10.14-10.18), the domestic butadiene market fell sharply, the northern spot supply was abundant, and the downstream mentality continued to be short, resulting in a depressed market inquiry atmosphere. In addition, the external market was vulnerable to the pressure of ocean shipping, which dragged the domestic butadiene spot market to continue to decline, and the prices of foreign manufacturers and Sinopec were frequently lowered, leading to a sharp decline in the market. Until Thursday (10.17), the price of northeast manufacturers dropped to about 9500-9600 yuan / ton, and the downstream stage just needed to bargain and make up the position, the market turnover improved, and the atmosphere slightly changed. However, the price of synthetic rubber continues to decline, the butadiene market in the north is relatively abundant, and some businesses are still cautious. In terms of price, the price of superior products delivered in Shandong is 10100-10200 yuan / ton, and that in East China is 10400-10500 yuan / ton, all of which are more than 1000 yuan lower than last week.
For enterprises: Sinopec’s total supply price of butadiene in East China has been reduced by 1000 yuan / ton to 11000 yuan / ton; Liaotong chemical’s base price of butadiene in node auction on Monday has been reduced to 10610 yuan / ton, 286 tons of goods have been sold; on Thursday, node price of 9660 yuan / ton has been priced for export of 390 tons; Fushun Petrochemical’s 360 tons of butadiene have been sold for export within the week, with the transaction price of 9520 yuan / ton; shenhuaning coal butadiene has been sold for export of 9090 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous month, it dropped by 1300 yuan / T; Guangzhou Petrochemical’s 30000t / a butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10, with a planned maintenance period of 25 days; Maoming Petrochemical’s first-line butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 14, with the downstream SBS plant shut down simultaneously; Inner Mongolia Jiutai’s 70000t / a oxidative dehydrogenation plant was shut down for maintenance on October 14, with a planned restart on October 20, with a small amount of inventory for export.
Industrial chain: in terms of downstream synthetic rubber, styrene butadiene rubber. This week, the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber fell three times, with a cumulative decline of 800-900 yuan / ton. The market offer also fell significantly, and some offers are still tentative shipments below the supply price. During the week, the main styrene butadiene rubber units were in normal operation, but Qilu had a large amount of pending inspection, and the delivery was a little slow, and the market was slightly tight; the external market of raw butadiene fell slightly, the domestic market fell sharply, the styrene price also fell, and the overall cost performance was negative; the theoretical production of Dante styrene rubber continued to hang upside down, so under this pressure, some private units have not yet been fully loaded, and the follow-up still needs continuous attention. ; in terms of demand, under the guidance of not buying and falling mentality, the actual purchase in the downstream market is more rigid and the price is lower, so the support for the real market is general; in conclusion, the SBR market this week showed a downward trend. In terms of price, the mainstream price of Qilu 1502 in Shandong is around 10500 yuan / ton, and that of Fushun 1502 in East China is around 10400-10500 yuan / ton.
The influence of SBR on butadiene: in the next period, the price decline of SBR in China slowed down, and entered the late of the month or appeared range shock. Poor U.S. economic data and the risk of brexit aggravate the market’s pessimistic expectation on the economy, which is a negative guide on the macro side; the demand side of Tianjiao is weak, and Shanghai Jiaotong has no obvious guide for the time being; the price of raw material butadiene drops rapidly, but the supply of butadiene in East China tank farm is low, and the low price may present just need for replenishment, which will support the future market of butadiene.
Polybutadiene rubber: this week, both the factory and market prices of polybutadiene are in a downward trend. On the cost side, butadiene prices continued to fall, showing slightly negative guidance. On the supply side, the ChuanHua Shunding unit was restarted, and the mainstream Shunding units in Yanshan, Yangzi, Daqing, Sichuan and Qilu were in normal operation. In addition, the supply side was abundant due to the supplement of spot market. On the demand side, the downstream construction situation has improved, but under the guidance of not buying down mentality, the market entry is cautious and wait-and-see, there is no intention to store goods in batches, only to maintain just need to reduce the price to buy. In view of the above conditions, the market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell sharply. After the supply price fell, there was also a lot of upside down supply of cis-4-polybutadiene rubber, dragging the market forward. In addition, the price of styrene butadiene was also relatively low, which made the sentiment of the industry more bearish. In terms of price, CNPC’s factory price is 11300 yuan / ton for Daqing Shunding in North China and 11300-11400 yuan / ton for Daqing Shunding market in Shandong. The above price is for reference only.
The effect of BR on butadiene: the domestic br market is likely to weaken slightly next week. On the cost side, the price of raw butadiene continues to decline, which is a bad guide to the psychology of the industry. In fact, the production cost pressure of Shunding is still there. On the supply side, the ChuanHua Shunding unit is restarted, the blue deshunding unit is expected to restart, and the rest of the mainstream Shunding units continue to operate normally, with the supply side or more relaxed. On the demand side, the construction of downstream tire factories has picked up, but today it starts to run. Due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the production of pipe belt factories in North and other regions was again limited and shut down, with a slight negative impact. As a whole, the downstream market continued to press the price to buy; Shanghai Rubber Co., Ltd. concussed and sorted out, and the price difference between its spot and CIS butyl rubber narrowed. At present, there is no clear guidance in the news.
III. future forecast
On the positive side, the stage rigidity of the lower reaches of the North needs to be supported, and the supply side’s inventory pressure has been alleviated to a certain extent. On the negative side, there will be a slight increase in the arrival of cargo in the next period; the external market is weak; the synthetic rubber market is declining; it is difficult to have sustained support for rigid demand. The sharp price reduction of northern manufacturers stimulated the need to make up positions in the downstream stage, and the market atmosphere slightly improved in the late week. But at the same time, the downstream synthetic rubber market maintained a downward trend, and the downstream stage rigid demand is difficult to bring sustained good support. In the next cycle, in view of the current easing of the supply side inventory pressure, it is expected that the manufacturer’s prices will be consolidated; however, there is no obvious price difference between the north and the south, and the imported cargoes from East China will arrive in Hong Kong next week, and the supply and demand in the north is still abundant, so it is difficult to have a significant positive effect on the market supply and demand fundamentals. The business community butanediene analysts expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market will still have a weak expectation after the consolidation. Suggestions Pay attention to the manufacturer’s export policy and internal and external price guidelines.