I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to a large number of data from business associations, the market of epichlorohydrin has risen recently. On Tuesday (October 8), the average price of enterprises was 15 500 yuan per ton, on October 12, the average price of enterprises was 16 333.33 yuan per ton, and the five-day increase of epichlorohydrin was 5.38%.

II. Market analysis:

Products: The market of epichlorohydrin has been rising recently. The mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin was 15 500-16 000 yuan/ton on the 8th, with high offer from the holder and cautious wait-and-see downstream. The price of epichlorohydrin rose on the 10th, with an average price of 16,000 yuan per ton. The mood of market rally remained unchanged, and low-cost supplies were hard to find. Mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin rose to 16333.33 yuan/ton on November 11, with factory spot tightening, holder’s offer rising, market negotiation focus pushing upward, downstream users digest more inventory and contracts, and are not enthusiastic about new single-track high purchasing, mostly just in need of purchasing. On the 12th, the mainstream price of epichlorohydrin in domestic market ranged from 16,000 to 16,500 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: In recent days, the market price of propylene in Shandong upstream region (10.8-10.11) rose slightly, with an increase of 0.69%. Early October is the National Day holiday. Due to the policy of limited production, propylene prices remained stable and occasionally declined during the holiday. After the end of the policy, most of the initial prices remained stable. Enterprise prices began to rise on the 10th, and some of them increased on the 11th. Currently, the market turnover is around 7450-7650 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is 7450 yuan/ton. Up to the 12th, downstream epoxy resin with rising raw materials, the focus of discussion is strong, the spot supply is tight.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 40th week (10.7-10.11) of 2019, there were 21 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 5 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were dichloromethane (9.96%), epichlorohydrin (8.89%) and ammonium nitrate (8.66%). There are 41 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are crude benzene (-8.41%), cyclohexanone (-8.10%) and hydrochloric acid (-8.00%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.4%.

3. Future market forecast:

Analysts of business association epichlorohydrin think that the slightly rising market of propylene in the upstream and the strong operation of epoxy resin in the downstream are all good for epichlorohydrin. The supply side is still tight to support the price of epichlorohydrin rising continuously. It is expected that the short-term epichlorohydrin market will go up mainly. The Focus still needs to pay attention to the information guidance of mainstream manufacturers in the upstream and downstream.