According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market first fell and then stabilized in January, and then rose. At the beginning of the month, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 3533 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it fell to about 3183 yuan/ton, a drop of 9.91%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2850-2950/ton; in Shandong is about 3100-3200 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 3150 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2650 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 3150-3250 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3250-3350 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 3200-3300 yuan/ton, which is 32.86% lower than that in the same period last year.
II. Cause Analysis
Products: This month, due to the downstream acetate, vinyl acetate Market and other industries started to slump, the demand for acetic acid is weak, due to the approaching Spring Festival holidays, domestic acetic acid enterprises mostly to reduce storage pressure and low-cost shipments, the export market negotiations are flat, many factors lead to domestic acetic acid prices continue to fall; near the end of the month, due to long-term enterprise warehousing and some enterprise overhaul and other factors, acetic acid goods. Source tension and low inventory, combined with pre-holiday stocks and other factors, on-site quotations began to warm up. In terms of start-up, Longyu 400,000 tons/year plant in Henan Province was stopped short, Yima 250,000 tons/year plant in Henan Province was stopped short, and Yangtze 400,000 tons/year plant in Nanjing was repaired at the beginning of the month. So far, Soap 1.2 million tons/year plant in Jiangsu Province has reduced its load, and the overall start-up rate is about 86%.
Industry chain: In the upstream, the methanol market in the first ten days of this month under the drive of pre-season inventory, the overall warehousing rhythm is still acceptable, northwest, Shandong and central China mainland homeopathy in varying degrees slightly increased; but in the second ten days, with the high inventory of terminal raw materials in Shandong and Huazhong consumer markets, downstream enthusiasm gradually slowed down, methanol quoted 2188 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and methanol price 2212 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price of acetate industry in downstream acetic acid is still relatively low this week. Traders are cautious in purchasing and wait-and-see attitude. PTA spot market is affected by enterprise overhaul and futures upstream. The price fluctuation in the month is 7.24%, up 14.51% compared with the same period last year.
International: This month, the North American acetic acid market was affected by demand, and continued to decline in the month, now about 600 US dollars/ton; the Asian acetic acid market was affected by the Chinese market, falling first and then rising in the month, and the current quotation is 390-440 US dollars/ton; the European acetic acid market fell sharply in the month, about 705 Euro/ton.
3. Future Market Forecast
At present, domestic acetic acid enterprises have low inventory and normal start-up of production. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival, the market gradually enters the shutdown period, and the intentions of reserve before the Festival are strong, but the actual turnover is flat.
Acetic acid analysts of business associations expect that the acetic acid market will be mainly stable in the near future, with an upward trend.