During the Spring Festival in February, the overall trend of dimethyl ether Market before and after the festival is not optimistic, and the whole month market is mainly weak, which is one of the few declining products in the energy sector in February. According to the data monitoring of the business association, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3446.67 yuan / ton on February 1, and 3156.67 yuan / ton on February 25, with an overall decline of 8.41% in February. As of February 25, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether are as follows:

Region specification Date Quotation

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong Province: ≥ 99.0% February 25th 3080 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei area: ≥ 99.0% on February 25th 3100 yuan / ton

Mass fraction of DME in Henan area: ≥ 99.0% February 25th 3050-3170 yuan / ton

Looking back on the market of dimethyl ether in February, the main production area of dimethyl ether in Henan continued the rising trend of last month at the beginning of the month, and the price only rose steadily on the 1st. During the period, the ex factory price of civil gas was continuously raised, which brought certain benefits to the market. In addition, the demand for storage and replenishment in the downstream before the festival, the enthusiasm for entering the market was good, the manufacturers’ shipment was smooth, and the price was relatively strong. However, because the manufacturers also had the demand for storage and inventory before the festival, the increase was extremely limited. Then, from February 2, dimethyl ether began to fall. Although the international crude oil continued to rise and the news was favorable to the market mentality, the civil LPG market was limited and did not follow the rising market, which mainly affected the dimethyl ether market mentality. And with the end of pre Festival replenishment in the downstream, the market transaction atmosphere is significantly weaker than that in the early stage. Before the festival, the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, and the decline range is different, so they adjust according to their own situation.

After the festival, dimethyl ether Market did not rebound, but widened the decline. Although the international crude oil continued to rise after the festival, and the LPG market was greatly pulled up by this good news, the dimethyl ether Market did not follow the rise, and the overall trend was still weak. On February 21, the dimethyl ether Market showed a significant decline. The factory price of all regions was significantly reduced. Some enterprises lowered the factory price twice on the same day. Taking Henan xinlianxin as an example, the quotation of xinlianxin dimethyl ether was 3340 yuan / ton on February 21 and 3100 yuan / ton on February 25, with a significant drop of 240 yuan / ton in just a few days. The main reason for the decline is that the terminal demand is not good, and the downstream is not able to cope with it. After the festival, only a small part of the market replenishment operation, but the overall shipment of the manufacturers is still not smooth, the inventory is gradually increasing, and the pressure is greater, so they are forced to reduce the factory price substantially continuously, and the profit is given priority to the shipment.

In terms of methanol cost, methanol was first suppressed and then increased in February. Affected by the logistics before the festival, transportation vehicles are in short supply, which is not conducive to the circulation of methanol goods, and the market is difficult to change. After the festival, the domestic methanol market has warmed up. Downstream enterprises need to store and replenish after the festival, and enter the market for replenishment in an appropriate amount. In addition, the logistics recovery and the reduction of freight cost make the methanol market warm up to a certain extent. However, the methanol market as a whole fell in February, and the weak cost brought limited support to the dimethyl ether Market.

On the whole, at the end of February, the cost of methanol and liquefied gas markets both recovered, but the increase rate was small, which brought limited support to the dimethyl ether Market. Near the end of the month, the price of CP will be released in March, which is expected to rise. The civil LPG market is expected to rise, which may bring a certain boost to the dimethyl ether Market. However, due to the impact of demand, the downstream industry is cautious and less motivated to enter the market. The manufacturers are under great inventory pressure and the market is very limited. Dimethyl ether Market is expected to be mainly volatile in March, and the overall trend may still be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda is stable for the time being. On February 25, the average price in the domestic market was 1496.67 yuan / ton. On February 24, the commodity index of baking soda was 99.34, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.36% from 121.68 (2020-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 12.54% from 88.27, the lowest point on December 22, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the news agency, the price of sodium bicarbonate runs smoothly, and the downstream market shipment is fair. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan is about 1420-1600 yuan, which is the mainstream price in the market. The downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be slightly consolidated in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1350-1550 yuan / ton, which is the mainstream price in the market, and the downstream demand is acceptable.

Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic soda price has increased. The price of soda ash in Central China is on the rise. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1400-1500 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash recovers slowly after the festival. The recent upward price of glass has a certain pulling effect on soda ash. It is expected that the price of soda ash may rise slightly in the short term.

Demand side: downstream medicine, textile and food mainly purchase sodium bicarbonate on demand, and the price of sodium bicarbonate is temporarily stable. Analysts from business news agency believe that: the price of upstream soda ash is expected to rise recently, while the downstream market mainly relies on Duoan’s on-demand procurement. Generally speaking, the price of sodium bicarbonate may continue to fluctuate slightly in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: p-value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of February 23, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11200 yuan / ton, up 1.20% compared with the previous trading day, up 2.75% compared with February 18, and down 6.15% compared with January 23. After the festival, epichlorohydrin market rose slightly. Recently, the raw material propylene continued to rise, the downstream epoxy resin continued to push up, the industry chain market was strong, boosting market confidence, the low price supply was reduced, the market supply was sufficient, the inquiry atmosphere in the downstream was slightly improved, and the demand was still dominated.

Upstream propylene, February 23, Shandong propylene market prices continue to rise. According to the price chart of the business club, the price of propylene declined all the way at the end of January, rose slightly at the end of the month, and then began to stabilize. On the 8th, the price of enterprises generally dropped by 50 yuan / ton, and then entered the Spring Festival holiday. Most of the first half of the period remained stable, while the second half (from February 15) showed a steady upward trend. The 18th was the first day of official work, and the price rose by 200 yuan / ton every day from the 21st, and even rose by 4 yuan on the 22nd After the Spring Festival, a total of more than 1000 yuan / ton has been raised. Now the market transaction has reached 8500 ~ 8550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8500 yuan / ton.

Downstream epoxy resin, epoxy resin continued to rise on February 23. At present, the raw material bisphenol A is rising strongly, the cost support is strong, the mentality of manufacturers is good, it is difficult to find low-cost goods in the market, and the downstream just needs replenishment, so we should be more cautious and wait-and-see.

3、 Future forecast

Business community epichlorohydrin analysts believe that the recent strong performance of the upstream and downstream market, good market mentality, the current supply side is relatively sufficient, but the demand side is still slow to improve, downstream just need replenishment, it is expected that in the short term, epichlorohydrin market or narrow adjustment, more need to pay attention to market information guidance.

After the festival, bisphenol A is on the fast track, reaching a new high day by day. On the 23rd, the market of bisphenol A Rose fiercely, making another good performance. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the market offer on February 23 has reached 23200-24000 yuan / ton, and it is heard that the high level does have a real deal. As far as the current price is concerned, some downstream companies are under great pressure. However, in view of the order production, they have to catch up with high procurement. At present, the supply of bisphenol a market is limited, and the supply pressure of traders is not big. In the short term, the high level of bisphenol A is stable, and the downward expectation is not big. The business community expects that the bisphenol a market will continue to operate high today, with the offer range of 23500-24500 yuan / ton.

The raw material side continued to rise, and phenol entered a rising state on the first working day after the festival, with an increase of 1500 yuan / ton so far. In the morning of the 23rd, Lihua yiweiyuan continued to rise by 500 yuan / ton and implemented 8300 yuan / ton. There is no doubt that acetone has been rising for several days. In the morning of the 23rd, Lihua yiweiyuan continued to rise by 600 yuan / ton, executing 8600 yuan / ton. From the crude oil surge continued to pull the pure benzene upward, from the raw material cost side of the phenol and ketone industry chain continued to release good, and the short-term good still exists.

The downstream epoxy resin market continued to run at a high level, with the market offer rising to 29000 yuan / ton, 2000-3000 yuan / ton after the festival, and the offer of solid epoxy resin was 22500-24000 yuan / ton. At present, factory orders are mainly delivered, and there is no spot in the market, so the delivery of goods needs to queue up. At present, the market is developing well, but with the coming of the new year, the logistics will have a greater impact, the circulation of goods will be the first, and the actual order situation will decline.

At present, the whole industry takes the lead in “rising” from the top to the bottom. According to the business community, the domestic market in February is still high, the market operators have sufficient confidence, and there are still rigid demand downstream of the high price. It is estimated that the market of BPA in East China will be 23500-24500 yuan / ton

1、 Price trend

This week, the distribution price of sulfuric acid in Shandong rose, from 322.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 342.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.20%. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 53.31 on February 19.

2、 Market analysis

From the quotation of manufacturers, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province rose this week, with large inventory and general downstream demand. At the weekend, Heze Jiangyuan quoted 460 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 340 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 400 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Taiyuan kunshengda quoted 120 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has been rising step by step recently, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the market prices of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and bromine in the lower reaches were high, which had a positive impact on sulfuric acid.

3、 Future forecast

In late February, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches has been rising step by step recently, while the market in the lower reaches is better. The purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid in the lower reaches is normal, and the trend of products rises under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business community sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or small shock rise.

According to the Gulf Times website on February 15, a few months later, oil demand in the United States has finally begun to get rid of the new coronavirus pandemic. Before that, Asia was the only bright spot in the global market.

US refineries are processing the most crude oil since the economy stalled in March, as vaccine driven gasoline demand is expected to increase this summer. The rise in oil prices means refiners are scrambling for domestic oil, which has been shipped to stronger markets in Asia for months. The price of a grade like West Texas Intermediate has risen at least 50 cents a barrel since earlier this month.

The recovery of U.S. demand began with the launch of the global vaccination campaign in December last year, the latest progress in the recovery of oil from the abyss of the pandemic. For months, oil prices have been managed by OPEC and its partners through production cuts, without the help of demand outside Asia.

With the recovery of domestic oil demand, there may be a shortage of supply. After dozens of drilling companies slashed their budgets and filed for bankruptcy, the economy driven decline in production reduced local crude oil by about 2 million barrels per day from a peak of 13.1 million barrels per day. The US government expects oil production to return to 11.5 million barrels a day in 2022.

In January, the domestic ethanol market fluctuated at a high level. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic ethanol market price was 7000 yuan / ton on January 1, and the domestic butadiene market price was 7000175 yuan / ton on January 31, with an increase of 2.50% within the month and a year-on-year increase of 29.98%.

In terms of regional market, the market in Northeast China is weak, the market in East China and Shandong is weak, the market in Henan is mixed, the market in South China and Guangxi is low, the corn ethanol market in Dongguan is strong, the market in Anhui is high, the market in Sichuan is high, and the market in Yunnan is stable.

From the perspective of raw material corn, the corn price in this month was strong first and then weak. In the first ten days of the month, because the grain price was affected by the increase of downstream demand and the storm of grain grabbing, the price continued to rise, and the corn price remained firm. In the last ten days of the month, with the weakening of the demand for goods preparation before the year and the restrictions on transportation, the corn price went down slightly, but the overall corn raw material price was still at a high level. From the perspective of demand, Baijiu demand is almost over. Demand for ethyl acetate has increased since this month, and the demand for ethanol has been decreasing.

This month, the price of logistics from northeast to Shandong and Northern Jiangsu rose sharply, and the logistics restrictions were relatively large in the late epidemic and near the Spring Festival. The price from Heilongjiang to Shandong is 600 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton, and from Heilongjiang to northern Jiangsu is 670 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton. Shipping prices have not changed much.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Shandong Province ﹣ general grade ﹣ 7150 yuan / ton

Shandong Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7600-7800 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 7900-8000 yuan / ton

In southern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 7300-7350 yuan / ton

In the south of Jiangsu Province, ﹣ 7350-7450 yuan / ton

In Northern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 6950 yuan / ton

About 7300-7350 yuan / ton of corn in Anhui Province

About 7100-7200 yuan / ton of cassava in Anhui Province

In Anhui Province, the price is about 8150-8200 yuan / ton

Henan Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7070-7100 yuan / ton, tax included

Anhydrous ethanol in Henan Province: 7900-8000 yuan / ton, tax included

Hebei Province: 7450-7500 yuan / ton

In Hebei area, the coal quality is less than 7600 yuan / ton

In Guangxi, the consumption of honey alcohol is 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Guangxi is 6900-7150 yuan / ton

Guangxi region: anhydrous ethanol: 7800 yuan / ton

About 7000-7400 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Guangdong

There are about 8100-8150 anhydrous cassava ethanol in Guangdong Province

In Heilongjiang Province, the general grade of corn alcohol is 6500-6600 yuan / ton, including tax

Jilin Province ﹣ 6650 yuan / ton of ordinary alcohol, tax included

About 7600-7700 yuan / ton of corn alcohol in Sichuan, including tax

About 6700-6800 yuan / ton of molasses alcohol in Yunnan

About 6800-6900 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Yunnan

Corn prices fluctuate, floating space is small, is expected to remain high in the short term. The raw material purchase volume is limited and the price is high. Before the festival, the start-up of ethanol in Northeast China is maintained at about 50%. Individual large factories quote. The price has a certain guiding role for the price of Northeast China before the festival. In terms of transportation, due to the epidemic situation and the high price of few vehicles near the Spring Festival, the automobile delivery is limited. At the same time, the speed of port gathering is slowing down, and the downstream demand is also decreasing. Business community ethanol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market is mainly volatile.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend this week. On January 31, the price of mixed xylene was 4350 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (February 7), the price was 4530 yuan / ton, up 180 yuan / ton or 4.14% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s xylene mix increased by 200-450 yuan / ton. The demand for xylene is weak, but the willingness of the holder to support the price remains unchanged. As the Spring Festival approaches, the lower reaches leave the market one after another, the demand weakens and the actual transaction is limited. In terms of external market, as of February 5, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 636 US dollars / ton, up 37 US dollars / ton or 6.18% in the week compared with January 29; the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 645 US dollars / ton, up 32 US dollars / ton or 5.22% in the week compared with January 29. Xylene inventory in East China ports this week was about 82200 tons, up 5300 tons on the previous week.

In terms of crude oil, due to bad weather in the United States, energy demand is expected to increase. In February, OPEC + cut production, global crude oil supply is expected to tighten, and the market is optimistic about the demand outlook. Brent crude oil rose nearly $60 / barrel. On January 29, Brent rose $4.64/barrel, or 8.42%; WTI rose $4.62/barrel, or 8.87%.

Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price rose slightly this week, the weekend average price was 5300 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 15.87%. This week, the domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. By the end of the weekend, the closing prices of PX market in Asia were US $718-720 / T, FOB Korea and US $736-738 / T, CFR China. This week, PX’s external price rose, international crude oil price rose, and domestic PX market price rose.

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fluctuated and rose this week. On February 7, the price was 3995 yuan / ton, up 0.35% compared with last week and down 14.27% year on year. Domestic PTA started at 87.29%. The 3.3 million T / a PTA plant of Yisheng new materials is planned to be put into operation by the end of March 2021; the 2.2 million T / a PTA plant of Hanbang Petrochemical will be shut down on January 6, and the restart time is to be determined.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox remained stable this week, with the price of ox in East China at 4700 yuan / ton. The import of o-benzene in the port area has increased, the inventory of o-benzene in the port has increased recently, and the external quotation of o-benzene has been adjusted. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. The downstream market is getting warmer and the demand is getting warmer. The turnover of o-benzene increased, and the market of o-benzene rose.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The downstream terminals are shut down one after another, the logistics is reduced, and the mixed xylene market is expected to enter a stable price consolidation period. Continue to pay attention to the downstream purchasing situation, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

This week, the domestic ethanol market was mainly sorted out. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic ethanol market price was 7150 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 7175 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.35% in the week, 2.50% in the month on month, and 29.98% in the year-on-year.

In terms of regional market situation, the Northeast market is stable, the East China and Shandong market is stable, the Henan market is on the lookout, the South China and Guangxi market is stable, the Dongguan corn market is strong, the Anhui market is high, the Sichuan market is stable, and the Yunnan market is stable.

From the perspective of raw material corn, from the perspective of raw material corn, the raw material corn market is stable. This week, before the corn Festival stock close to the end, corn market stable, but prices remain high. From the perspective of demand, Baijiu demand has ended, chemical demand is finished before the end of the festival, and downstream enterprises are going on holiday.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Shandong Province ﹣ general grade ﹣ 7150 yuan / ton

Shandong Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7600-7800 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 7900-8000 yuan / ton

In southern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 7300-7350 yuan / ton

In the south of Jiangsu Province, ﹣ 7350-7450 yuan / ton

In Northern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 6950 yuan / ton

About 7300-7350 yuan / ton of corn in Anhui Province

About 7100-7200 yuan / ton of cassava in Anhui Province

In Anhui Province, the price is about 8150-8200 yuan / ton

Henan Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7070-7100 yuan / ton, tax included

Anhydrous ethanol in Henan Province: 7900-8000 yuan / ton, tax included

Hebei Province: 7450-7500 yuan / ton

In Hebei area, the coal quality is less than 7600 yuan / ton

In Guangxi, the consumption of honey alcohol is 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Guangxi is 6900-7150 yuan / ton

Guangxi region: anhydrous ethanol: 7800 yuan / ton

About 7000-7400 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Guangdong

There are about 8100-8150 anhydrous cassava ethanol in Guangdong Province

In Heilongjiang Province, the general grade of corn alcohol is 6500-6600 yuan / ton, including tax

Jilin Province ﹣ 6650 yuan / ton of ordinary alcohol, tax included

About 7600-7700 yuan / ton of corn alcohol in Sichuan, including tax

About 6700-6800 yuan / ton of molasses alcohol in Yunnan

About 6800-6900 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Yunnan

In terms of logistics, the current logistics restrictions are relatively large, and some of them have begun to take holidays. Heilongjiang Shandong freight is 500-600 yuan / ton, Heilongjiang Baoqing Subei 670 yuan / ton, Henan Sichuan 500 yuan / ton, Guangxi Qinzhou Guangdong Dongguan 160-220 yuan / ton.

Corn prices remain high and ethanol production costs are high. Before the festival, the plant of the enterprise basically keeps low load, and the downstream stock up is obvious in the early stage. Business community ethanol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market will be dominated by consolidation.

Since November last year, vaccine positive news has been frequent, and crude oil prices have continued to rise. As the cost line continues to move up, PTA futures prices bottomed out and rebounded. At the beginning of February, the highest value of PTA 2105 contract reached 4120 points, with a cumulative rebound of more than 700 points or 20% in more than two months.

Crude oil remains high

Vaccine good news and gradually promote vaccination, so that the market confidence in anti epidemic doubled. Driven by the favorable situation of vaccines, crude oil prices reversed in a V-shape, rising more than 20% in the past three months. At present, more than 20 million doses of vaccines have been vaccinated in the United States and China. However, due to the bottleneck of vaccine production and transportation, the vaccination proportion in various countries is generally low.

It is gratifying that the number of new confirmed cases at home and abroad has dropped, and countries are still making efforts to increase the promotion of vaccines. With the positive benefit expectation of vaccines and the policy support of major economies, the IMF raised the global economic growth forecast by 0.9 percentage points in 2020 and 0.3 percentage points in 2021. China has taken the lead in recovering to the growth rate before the epidemic in the fourth quarter of 2020. It is predicted that China will record 8.1% GDP growth in 2021. We are optimistic about the future epidemic control and economic recovery. At the OPEC + meeting in January, Saudi Arabia announced that it would voluntarily reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels per day from February to march on the basis of quotas. Iraq also rarely proposed compensatory measures to reduce production. Crude oil prices are expected to remain firm.

PX profit recovery

Since 2019, the domestic PX industry has entered a period of rapid expansion, and the supply and demand of PX has gradually moved from tight balance to loose or even excess. The price difference of PX naphtha continued to decline, and it once dropped to about US $120 / T in the first ten days of October last year. The imported PX processing has been in a loss state for a long time. In this context, the domestic PX device shutdown maintenance increased, and the load decreased to less than 80%. PTA link benefited from the upstream profit, and the spot processing gap was maintained at about 450 yuan / ton.

With the release of new PTA production capacity of Dushan energy and Fujian Baihong, as well as the increase of domestic PTA load, the demand for PX has increased, and the profit of the industrial chain has been redistributed. By the end of January, PTA spot processing gap had been reduced to 256 yuan / ton, while PX naphtha oil price gap had been restored to 193 US dollars / ton.

The restart failure of the 1.6 million ton PX unit of Sinopec extends the shutdown for one month. It is estimated that the domestic PX production will shrink by about 120000 tons in February compared with the previous period, and the efforts to remove PX from the warehouse will be increased. In addition, the overhaul time of Qingdao Lidong 1 million ton PX plant was advanced from early April to middle and late March. Affected by the sudden change of PX device, PTA futures rebounded strongly for two consecutive trading days, and the price of CFR China PX soared by 21 US dollars per ton per day, which also reflects the market’s expectation of improving the supply and demand margin of PX.

Excess pressure increases

PTA industry entered the peak of production expansion again last year after capacity clearing in 2015-2016. Last year, 8.4 million tons of new domestic production capacity was added, with a growth rate of 16%. The commissioning of Fujian Baihong 2.5 million tons new plant was postponed to January February this year. This year, China plans to add 8.5 million tons of PTA capacity, mainly in the first quarter, and the capacity growth is expected to reach 14%. The planned new production capacity of downstream polyester is close to 5 million tons, and the growth rate of production capacity is estimated to be 8.3%, far lower than that of PX and PTA industries. Due to the relatively low growth rate of downstream polyester demand and the rapid shrinkage of demand caused by the epidemic situation, PTA social inventory has risen sharply since March last year, once close to 4 million tons. PTA spot has been in a discount state for a long time, and the basis can cover the risk-free arbitrage cost, and the stock exchange’s warehouse receipt volume has reached a record high.

Futures inventory plays the role of a reservoir, making part of the spot is locked in the disk, the spot market circulation source is reduced. According to the data, as of the end of January 2021, PTA social inventory was 3.67 million tons, an increase of 270000 tons compared with the end of October 2020; PTA warehouse receipts were 1.87 million, an increase of 1.15 million; factory inventory and in stock goods in Hong Kong were reduced by 440000 tons, which temporarily eased the excess pressure of the spot market to a certain extent, but the warehouse receipts will be cancelled in September, when the spot supply will face greater pressure.

Overall, the international oil price is expected to gradually rise, the supply and demand margin of PX is improved, and the PTA futures price oscillates upward under the guidance of cost. PTA is still in the production expansion cycle. Under the background of increasing pressure of excess supply and demand, the digestion of large amount of social inventory is relatively slow, or the space above the period price is restrained, especially the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in September will have a great impact on the spot market.