On October 29th, the domestic market for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride saw a slight decline. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 12533.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.05% from the beginning of the month.
On the raw material side, the price trend of domestic fluorite has declined, and the support on the cost side has weakened. As of October 29th, the benchmark price of fluorite in Shengyi Society was 3612.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07% compared to the beginning of this month (3610.00 yuan/ton). The decline in fluorite prices has weakened the strong cost support for hydrofluoric acid, leading to a slight decline in the hydrofluoric acid market.
Demand side: Downstream demand side encounters traditional off-season, weak demand, insufficient overall consumption capacity, and mainly relies on on-demand procurement. Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and have low purchasing enthusiasm. Overall, the demand side has weak support for hydrogen fluoride, and it is expected that the hydrogen fluoride market will mainly operate weakly and steadily in the later stage.
Market forecast: The price of raw material fluorite will decrease, and cost support will weaken. In addition, downstream demand will be weak due to the traditional off-season, and rigid demand will be the main focus. Overall, downstream consumption capacity is insufficient. It is expected that the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market will mainly operate weakly and steadily in the later stage. More attention should be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 27th, the reference average price of domestic urea market is 1625 yuan/ton, which is 0.23% higher than the reference average price of 1621 yuan/ton on October 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This month, the domestic urea market price first fell and then rose. In the first half of this month, the domestic urea market prices fell. The futures market is not good, the market supply is sufficient, and coupled with weak downstream demand, the urea market is weakening. In mid month, the domestic urea market prices fluctuated slightly and rose. The futures market has become stronger, and autumn procurement is coming to an end. Downstream buyers are following suit on urea dips, and the market trading atmosphere is good. At the end of this month, the domestic urea market prices continued to rise. The urea futures market is strengthening, and the spot market is following the trend of the futures market.
market situation
As of October 27th, the urea market prices in Shandong region are around 1570-1630 yuan/ton, Hebei region are around 1570-1630 yuan/ton, Henan region are around 1540-1600 yuan/ton, and Liaoning region are around 1600 yuan/ton.
According to the weekly K-bar chart from July 28, 2024 to October 20, 2025, it can be seen that the domestic urea cycle is characterized by ups and downs. The largest decline in domestic urea in October was -2.85% in the week of October 6th, and the largest increase was 1.27% in the week of October 20th.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has been strong and rising recently. At present, the trading atmosphere in the urea market is good, and downstream inquiries have increased. But with the continuous rise, the market’s cautious mentality has increased. The inventory of urea market is still at a high level, and the demand for industry and agriculture is still insufficient. It is expected that the short-term domestic urea market price consolidation and operation will be the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been rising this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 28400 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 30000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.63% and a year-on-year increase of 41.51%. On October 23, the Business Society Bromine Index was 103.51, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.78% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 75.68% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price of bromine has risen, and the reference price for bromine spot production in Shandong region is 29000-31000 yuan/ton. Due to weather and policy reasons, domestic bromine enterprises still have tight inventory and insufficient industry operating rates, but downstream enterprises have average purchasing enthusiasm. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been rising this week, with an average market price of 2901 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 3157.67 yuan/ton over the weekend. The price has increased by 8.85%, which is 114.48% higher than the same period last year. Downstream demand is generally average.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to rise recently, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain strong. Bromine prices are expected to remain strong this week, and downstream buyers are expected to purchase as needed, which may lead to resistance to the increase in bromine prices. Overall, it is expected that bromine prices will continue to remain strong in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 20th, the price of isooctanol was 6283.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.07% compared to the price of 6550 yuan/ton on October 13th last Monday; Compared to October 1st, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell by 5.75% to 6666.67 yuan/ton. Partial maintenance of isooctanol equipment in some enterprises resulted in a slight decrease in the operating load of isooctanol facilities and a decrease in isooctanol supply; The price of propylene has fallen, and the cost of isooctanol has decreased; This week, the supply of isooctanol has decreased, coupled with a decrease in costs, causing the price of isooctanol to fluctuate and fall.
The cost of raw material propylene has decreased
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 20th, the price of propylene was 6195.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 5.30% compared to the price of 6543.25 yuan/ton on October 1st. This week, the price of propylene fluctuated and fell, raw material prices fell, and the cost of isooctanol decreased, increasing the pressure on the price of isooctanol to decline.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and fall
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 20th, the DOP price was 7209.17 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.15% compared to the DOP price of 7367.50 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to October 13th, the DOP price of 7309.16 yuan/ton fluctuated and fell by 1.37%. This week, DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen, with DOP companies operating at less than 60% capacity, resulting in a decrease in operating rates and DOP production. The demand for isooctanol has also decreased, leading to significant downward pressure on isooctanol prices.
Future expectations
The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that in terms of cost, the price of propylene has fallen, the price of raw materials has fallen, and the pressure of isooctanol’s decline has increased. In terms of demand, DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen, while DOP companies have seen a slight decrease in production, resulting in a decrease in DOP output and reduced support for isooctanol demand. In the future, the demand for cost reduction of isooctanol is weak, and the downward pressure on isooctanol is increasing. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 13th to 17th, the domestic ethanol price was 5550 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 1.46% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.54%. The price of raw corn has significantly decreased, with some areas experiencing an increase in plant production after the holiday. Downstream demand for replenishment has also increased, resulting in low transaction prices. The price of ethanol in the domestic market has also dropped significantly.

On the cost side, corn prices continue to show a weak trend overall. Many areas in North China have once again experienced rainy weather, with most grassroots grain points in a state of suspended harvesting, and market purchases and sales being sluggish,. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, multiple previously shut down enterprises have recently produced by-products, and the ethanol supply side is affected by negative factors.
On the demand side, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. Negative factors affecting ethanol demand.
Market forecast shows an increase in supply and a need for recovery in demand. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term ethanol market will be mainly weak.

Since September, asphalt prices have been fluctuating downwards due to various factors. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong region was 3680 yuan/ton on September 1st, and as of September 29th, the ex factory price in Shandong region was 3593 yuan/ton.
In September, the supply of raw materials was abundant, and most local refineries maintained a high level of production enthusiasm, driving the overall asphalt production to increase compared to last week. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 42.0%, an increase of 5.7% compared to the previous week. The weekly asphalt production was 701000 tons, an increase of 15.5% compared to the previous week. Recently, competition for various brand resources remains fierce, and the pressure on asphalt supply remains high and difficult to reduce. It is expected that the planned production of asphalt in October will remain high, with a total domestic asphalt production of 2.682 million tons in October.

In terms of demand, some regions in China experience concentrated rainfall and typhoon weather, which hinders terminal demand. The national demand for asphalt shows a pattern of strong demand in the north and weak demand in the south. Due to the increase in supply and the suppression of demand by rainfall, the accumulation of inventory in Shandong region is more obvious. 104 domestic asphalt companies have a total social inventory of 154.1 tons. In the Northeast region, due to the narrowing of construction windows and price reductions by traders, the price advantage of social inventory resources has become apparent. Coupled with the support of rush work demand, the process of destocking has accelerated.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the fourth quarter has seen a significant increase in asphalt production recently, which may cause significant pressure on prices after the peak season ends and break the relatively strong pattern among asphalt consumers. Therefore, we hold a bearish view on asphalt prices in the fourth quarter.