1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda is weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 628 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 622 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% and a year-on-year decrease of 38.72%. On February 5th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 797 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 43.07% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 33.28% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 550-650 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Zhejiang region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 850-970 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 2200-2300 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. This week, the supply of caustic soda is still in a loose state, and there is no obvious destocking by enterprises. The overall load of liquid alkali in Shandong is still high, and the profit of the chlor alkali industry is not high, which forms a support on the cost side. The enthusiasm for downstream alumina entering the market has been average recently, while in the north, due to weather conditions and a gradual decrease in stock during the Spring Festival, the market is still in a stalemate, and more caustic soda is purchased on demand. It is expected that the alumina market will experience weak fluctuations in the later period.
Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the caustic soda prices have been weak this week, and downstream buyers in China have been purchasing on demand recently. There is no positive support for the Shandong market, and demand has not substantially improved. The quotation for orders outside Shandong Province has basically ended, and now the main focus is on executing long-term orders. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may continue to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.