1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1495.75 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 1500.75 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.33% and a year-on-year increase of 29.85%. The commodity index of petroleum coke on October 29 was 116.73, up 0.39 points compared with yesterday, 24.98% lower than 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and 74.51% higher than 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The main reason for the rise in the price of petroleum coke is the shortage of supply and maintenance by manufacturers. The supply of low sulfur coke is less, and the market transaction is better. The supply of medium and high sulfur coke is insufficient, the downstream demand is acceptable, and there are many maintenance manufacturers, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke is rising.

Upstream: the US WTI crude oil futures market price fell, and the settlement price of the main contract fell by US $1.22 to US $36.17/barrel. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 38.26 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 1.38 dollars. Oil prices continued to plunge to a five month low on Thursday, mainly due to concerns that the containment measures could trigger a deep blow to fuel demand.

Downstream: due to the rise of carbon raw materials, enterprises are facing greater pressure, and enterprises are suffering from serious losses, and their prices are mainly weak in the near future. Electrolytic aluminum market comprehensive aspects or a small decline in space. Glass Market: with the change of weather in northern China, the pace of rush work is still accelerating, which also increases the market demand for glass spot. At the same time, the production enterprises also increased their own inventory clearance efforts, striving to reduce the inventory to the minimum before the off-season. In terms of spot price, it is basically to stabilize the market transaction price, and manufacturers in some regions are slightly flexible. But generally speaking, the price adjustment is not large in the short term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the energy sector’s rise and fall list of commodity prices in the 42nd week of 2020 (10.19-10.23), including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities of increase are liquefied natural gas (7.80%), petroleum coke (4.39%) and asphalt (2.76%). There were 7 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were steam coal (- 1.77%), WTI crude oil (- 1.17%) and Brent crude oil (- 1.09%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.92%.

The oil coke analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the trend of stable and upward trend of petroleum coke is mainly due to the tight supply of goods, and the downstream demand is still good. It is expected that the trend of Petroleum Coke will be mainly in the short term or continue to be good, which depends on the demand of downstream market.

On October 23 local time, South Africa’s minister of mining resources and energy, mantacher, visited the exploration well in the waters near mosobe, Western Cape Province.

The area to be explored is called brulpadda, about 175 km away from the southern coast of South Africa, covering an area of 18734 km2. The water depth gradually changes from 200 m in the north to 1800 m in the south. Total, an exploration company, said the area could hold one billion barrels of natural gas and a large amount of crude oil.

Since August 2020, luiperd has employed 195 exploration engineers, aviation experts, hydrologic experts, petroleum geologists and marine experts and other local South African professionals. As South Africa’s first deep-sea oil and gas field, it is likely to end the history of South Africa’s oil and gas import needs.

Mantacher said the project has invested 1.5 billion rand (620 million yuan) and the government is now completing the upstream oil development act “at the necessary speed” to help release the untapped potential of upstream oil and gas reserves. The project will revitalize South Africa’s economy.

According to the data and analysis report of energy consulting company Aisin Huamai, the export volume of crude oil by sea of “OPEC +” in September increased from 22.11 million barrels / day in August to 22.84 million barrels / day, with an increase of 730000 barrels on a month on month basis, but it is still within the upper limit stipulated in the “OPEC +” production reduction agreement.

OPEC’s crude oil shipments rose to 18.2 million barrels / day in September, up from 17.53 million barrels / day in August, according to the maritime commodity statistics of Essen Huamai.

Saudi Arabia’s daily crude oil exports rose to 6.25 million barrels in September from a June low of 5 million barrels, according to kasuras, chief analyst of liquid bulk trading at Aisin wamai. According to the statistics of Aisin Huamai, the daily crude oil export volume of Saudi Arabia since this year is basically the same as that of last year, with an average of 6.25 million barrels per day. Russia’s daily crude oil exports increased from 3.52 million barrels in August to 3.59 million barrels in September due to the decline in domestic demand. UAE’s crude oil production exceeded the quota in August and September, and crude oil shipment also increased, to 2.54 million B / D and 2.61 million B / D, respectively, far higher than 2.1 million B / D in May and June. In addition, Venezuela and Libya, which are not bound by the “OPEC +” agreement, also increased crude oil exports in September compared with August, and Libya is expected to continue to increase crude oil production and exports.

1、 Price trend of formic acid

(Figure: P value curve of formic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

On October 27, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market had a steady rise. According to the data of the business club, the average price quoted by formic acid enterprises as of October 27 was 2200 yuan / ton, up 6.45% compared with last Tuesday (October 20), and 24.53% higher on a three-month cycle. At present, the downstream potassium formate and calcium formate industries have a steady demand for formic acid, the pharmaceutical industry orders have remained stable as a whole, and the leather and pesticide industries have gradually started to steadily improve. The formic acid market is still trading well, and the market is mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises have increased.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of formic acid of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of merchants is subject to the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.)

Enterprise price specification date

Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. 2200 yuan / T, use level: industrial grade; content: ≥ 85.0%; grade: excellent product: 2020-10-27

Zibo pulisi Chemical Co., Ltd. 2200 yuan / T, use level: industrial grade; content: ≥ 85.0%; grade: excellent product: October 27, 2020

Jintan local industrial supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. 2400 yuan / ton, use level: industrial grade; content: ≥ 85.0%; grade: excellent product: October 27, 2020

For the upstream caustic soda, on October 26, the price of caustic soda in Shandong was relatively strong. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda was 450-530 yuan / ton. October is the traditional peak season, and the demand side of caustic soda has certain support. At the same time, October is also the maintenance peak period, so the supply side may tighten. It is estimated that the short-term caustic soda price may be stronger; the upstream liquid ammonia market will rise slightly in the near future (10.01-10.27); the upstream sulfuric acid market will rise slightly in Shandong Province in the near future (10.01-10.27), and the upstream sulfur market will rise slightly in the near future with good cost support, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, the sulfuric acid supply is normal, and the factory price of sulfuric acid in the future market will fluctuate slightly As of October 26, the average price quoted by enterprises was 1917.50 yuan / ton, up 6.82% compared with October 1.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on October 26, 2020, there were 26 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, including 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 3.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities with increase were DMF (20.16%), butadiene (12.52%), 1,4-butanediol (7.48%). There were 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis. The top three products were propylene oxide (- 2.99%), propylene (- 2.45%) and isopropanol (- 2.05%). The average rise or fall was 0.6%.

3、 Future forecast

According to formic acid analysts of the business community, the raw material prices are stable and strong in the near future, and the cost support has been enhanced, and the follow-up of new downstream orders is acceptable. It is expected that the industrial grade formic acid market will be stable and better in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

This week, the price trend of some domestic rare earth market rose, heavy rare earth price rose slightly, light rare earth market neodymium series price rose, but praseodymium series price decreased. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on October 25 was 354 points, unchanged with yesterday, 64.60% lower than the highest point of 1000 points (2011-12-06) and 30% higher than 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015 .63%。 (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of the end of the week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China was 326500 yuan / ton, 1.24% higher than 322500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 414000 yuan / ton, 1.22% higher than 409000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of neodymium oxide was 348000 yuan / ton, 0.29% higher than 347000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of metal neodymium was 440000 yuan / ton, 1.62% higher than 433000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; The price of praseodymium oxide was 317500 yuan / ton, which was 1.55% lower than that at the beginning of the week; the weekend price of praseodymium oxide was 630000 yuan / ton, down 3.82% from 655000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

In the recent domestic light rare earth, the downstream procurement is relatively normal in recent years, with a strong wait-and-see attitude, little change in trading volume, loss of support for manufacturers’ prices, some prices in the light rare earth market remain at a low level, and the price trend of other products is mainly stable. Recently, the demand and stock situation of permanent magnet manufacturers is general, the price of praseodymium and neodymium rare earth has increased slightly, and the market price of light rare earth is still low Recently, due to the normal supply and poor demand of praseodymium series products, the price of praseodymium series is going down. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic situation on rare earth production and export, overseas demand has not improved, and the domestic market price of light rare earth has remained low in recent years.

The price trend of domestic direct family rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.64 million yuan / ton, and the price trend of this week was 0.61%; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.625 million yuan / ton, which was 0.31% higher this week. Although the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan is relatively large, it is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth, but the information of collection and storage is not available It is confirmed that Myanmar’s customs clearance still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earths, but the downstream demand is not positive in the near future, and the market price of heavy rare earth has increased slightly. In recent years, the market is general, heavy rare earth prices remain high level, downstream demand has not improved significantly, heavy rare earth market price rise is not big.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises, and formed a collection of supporting policies for the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry. Favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. Meanwhile, Sino US relations are tense. Key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of rare earth market is normal, and the demand has not changed much. The price of rare earth in China rose slightly this week.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earths has not changed much. In addition, the downstream procurement is normal, and the trading market has risen. Analysts of business agency expect that the market price of rare earth will rise slightly in the future.

Price trend of 441 silicon

On October 23, the price of silicon metal (441) rose slightly. According to business agency data, on October 23, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 12066.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.58% compared with 11650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (10.1); 10491.67 yuan / ton, up 15.01%; 11833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.97%; and a 2.40% increase this week

The price of 441 silicon in different regions on 23 May is as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 11500-11600 yuan / ton, Sichuan is 11800-11900 yuan / ton, Kunming is 11800-11900 yuan / ton, Shanghai is 12600-12800 yuan / ton, Tianjin port is 12200-12300 yuan / ton, Huangpu port is 12100-12300 yuan / ton 。

Main reasons for market strength:

1. awesome power

In October, export orders picked up, foreign investors had a strong demand for standby stocks, and the export situation improved slightly.

2. Recovery of domestic demand

At present, the mainstream silicon factories are optimistic and willing to support prices. Some manufacturers have raised their prices. In the market, the mentality of the sellers is becoming more and more reluctant to sell.

Crude oil and condensate production in OPEC member countries and non OPEC countries has been interrupted since last year, according to the hydrocarbon processing network on October 14. These disruptions have led to a reduction in liquid fuel supply, together with a reduction in crude oil production agreed by OPEC and the allies, which has led to a reduction in global liquid fuel stocks since June.

So far in 2020, the average daily oil supply disruption has been 4.6 million barrels per day, reaching 5.2 million barrels in June, the highest level since 2011, when the energy information agency (EIA) began to track monthly interruptions in liquid fuel production. In 2019, global oil supply disruptions averaged 3.1 million barrels a day. In calculating supply disruptions, the EIA does not take into account the closure of oil fields for economic reasons or the decline in oil demand.

Non OPEC oil producers, mainly from the United States and Canada, saw oil supply disruptions rise to nearly 800000 B / D in August. In Canada, due to a coronavirus outbreak at the production site, operators ordered non essential staff to stop working, resulting in production interruption. In the United States, disruptions caused by hurricanes and unplanned maintenance affected oil production this summer. Other non OPEC countries have caused temporary closures for various reasons, such as an outbreak of coronavirus among workers, logistical problems in transporting workers or equipment during the outbreak, fires in Canadian field operations or other natural disasters.

In its short-term energy outlook (steo), EIA released estimates of historically unplanned production disruptions. In the estimation of disruption, the EIA distinguishes between production decline due to unplanned production disruption, permanent capacity loss and voluntary production reduction. The EIA estimates unplanned disruptions based on the difference between the estimated effective capacity (the level of supply available within a year) and the estimated production.

The international crude oil price fluctuated in a narrow range, the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit load of the refinery was high, and the domestic product oil supply was sufficient, and the product oil price fell slightly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on October 16 was 5307 yuan / ton, down 0.86% from the beginning of the week; on October 16, the price of diesel oil was 4621 yuan / ton, down 0.04% from the beginning of the week.

Saudi Arabia cut crude oil prices in the middle of the week; demand for crude oil in Europe has been declining due to the impact of the new crown; Saudi Arabia has put pressure on OPEC and Russia to reduce crude oil production; EIA data show that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.818 million barrels in the week of October 9. The international crude oil market is intertwined with long and short news, and the international oil price is operating in a narrow range. WTI crude oil prices rose 1.28% and Brent crude oil prices rose 0.19%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the post holiday replenishment demand did not bring substantial improvement to the refined oil market, and the car travel decreased after the festival, the terminal demand decreased, and the overall performance of gasoline demand was poor. In terms of diesel, driven by downstream rush work after the festival, the demand is relatively strong. The demand for infrastructure construction and outdoor oil consumption increased. However, under the current abundant supply fundamentals, refineries mainly promote shipment.

On October 16, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 75%, and the start-up load of the refinery was maintained at a high level, and the domestic refined oil supply was sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: the lack of favorable international crude oil market will keep the international crude oil price under pressure; and the domestic refined oil supply is sufficient, and refineries have more sales promotion, and it is expected that the domestic oil product price will continue to decline steadily.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose sharply this week. As of October 16, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 6005 yuan / ton, up 3.94% compared with the beginning of the week and 6.14% higher than the same period of last month.

After the National Day Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the overall inventory of domestic ethyl acetate Market decreased significantly. In addition, some enterprises reduced the burden of maintenance, resulting in tight market supply, increased downstream market demand, strong cost support, and the ethyl acetate Market increased significantly. At present, East China is about 6000 yuan / ton, North China is about 5900 yuan / ton, and South China is about 6300 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the overall inventory of acetic acid market was low, and Jiantao in Hebei Province stopped for a short time within the week, which aggravated the tense situation of market supply. In addition, the market demand increased, and the price of acetic acid continued to rise. The price of corn for ethanol is still at a high level, and there is not much supply in the market. However, the downstream market is resistant to the high price of ethanol and will remain stable in a short time. At present, ethanol in East China is about 6500 yuan / ton.

The international market price of ethyl acetate is strong, and the port price in European market is about 820-850 euro / ton, and that in North America is about 700 US dollars / ton.

According to the ethyl acetate analysts of the business club, the domestic ethyl acetate Market is tight, the downstream terminal demand is better, and the support from the cost side is strong, and multiple favorable factors support the price of ethyl acetate.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on August 27, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7033 yuan / ton, with a slight price fluctuation, ranging from 100 to 300 yuan / ton. The carbon black market was mainly volatile this week.

Market conditions

The increase of carbon black production fell down

In the first half of 2020, the total output of carbon black in the first half of 2020 was 2.22 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. Among the key statistical enterprises, there were 5 enterprises with positive growth in output. The growth rate of Shanxi Anlun, Shandong Jinneng technology, Shanxi top three and Shandong Lianke was relatively high. The output of other 9 enterprises decreased compared with that of the same period. The enterprises with a large decline were Cabot and Jiang Xiheimao, Longxing Chemical, Qingzhou Boao, Dashiqiao Liaobin, Shandong Neste and other enterprises.

According to the statistics of carbon black branch, the industry as a whole is in a state of loss in 2019, with a sharp decline compared with the same period, and the total profit decreased by 105%. Among the statistics, 11 enterprises lost money, and the loss area reached 32%.

In the first half of 2020, the overall loss of the industry continued, and the amount of loss was further expanded, and the loss area reached nearly 50%.

Related policies

In June this year, the Ministry of ecology and environment launched the implementation of hierarchical management of environmental performance of carbon black industry. In the coming heating season, it will change the situation that the previous carbon black enterprises have different standards for environmental protection management and local governments have tight or loose environmental protection law enforcement. Carbon black believes that through the hierarchical management of environmental performance, enterprises that do well can benefit, so as to realize the protection of the advanced and eliminate the backward, and really promote the high-quality development of the industry.

Continue to control carbon black production in the second half of the year

According to the statistical data, the growth rate of the comprehensive tire production was close to two-digit decline, with a decrease rate of 9, In this case, the output of carbon black should be controlled, reasonable inventory should be maintained, supply and demand should be balanced, reasonable market price should be maintained, and losses of enterprises should be controlled. From the 8% drop in carbon black output in the first half of the year, it is still necessary to continue to control the output in the second half of the year to achieve reasonable supply and maintain sustainable development of enterprises.

Import and export

Carbon black export volume and price fall

According to the statistics of the State Customs, in the first half of 2020, the export volume of carbon black was 298000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.26%, the export amount was 250 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 37.83%, the export volume and export amount fell sharply at the same time, the average export price was 842 US dollars / ton, the average export price in the same period last year was 1054 US dollars, the average price decreased by 20.11%.

In the first half of the year, the main export countries were Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, but the export volume and export value were all declining. Only the carbon black exported to South Korea showed both volume and price rise, and the export volume growth rate was relatively large.

Import carbon black volume and price rise

According to the statistics of the State Customs, in the first half of the year, the import of carbon black was 39800 tons, an increase of 11.33% over the same period of last year. The import amount was 108 million US dollars, an increase of 4.22% over the same period of last year. The average import unit price was 2901 tons in the same period last year, and the import unit price was 6.38% lower than that of the same period It can be seen that most of the imported carbon black is mainly high-end special carbon black, which can basically rule out the possibility of ordinary rubber carbon black. The situation of both the quantity and price of imported carbon black shows that the epidemic situation in China is basically under control, and the production and operation of enterprises have returned to normal level.

The main importing countries are South Korea, Japan and the United States. The import volume and import amount show a growth trend, while the import volume increases significantly in Italy and the Netherlands.

Aftermarket forecast: from September to October, the coal tar market will meet a wave of rising process, which will put pressure on the cost of carbon black, or will drive the carbon black market to rise.