According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 9th to 13th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2331 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.39% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.12%. The domestic methanol market is mainly strong, with production enterprises and port quotations increasing to varying degrees.

As of the close on June 12th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2295 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2307 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2280 yuan/ton. It closed at 2290 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, or 0.44%. The trading volume is 548300 lots, the open position is 809827, and the daily increase is -17645.
On the cost side, the strong supply and weak demand in the coal market continue to weaken the cost support for methanol, and the price decline still exerts pressure on methanol prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, formaldehyde: Formaldehyde plants are mostly maintained steadily with abundant supply, and downstream customers receive goods according to their own needs. The market’s buying and selling sentiment is flat, and the formaldehyde market mostly maintains shipment according to orders, with limited price fluctuations. Dimethyl ether: The production of dimethyl ether enterprises is relatively low, and most enterprises mainly sell inventory. Downstream demand is severely constrained, and the market supply and demand are weak. Most downstream products have little fluctuation in methanol demand, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the recovery of equipment exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of June 12th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $321.50-322.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 79.00-80.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 275.50-276.50 euros/ton.
Future forecast, currently the main focus is on destocking. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will experience fluctuations and consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of pure benzene first rose and then fell this week. On Tuesday, the price of pure benzene was 5795.33 yuan/ton, and on Friday, it was 5802 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.12% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: This week, the market price of pure benzene first rose and then fell, with a slight decrease overall. The trading atmosphere on the exchange is still mainly focused on filling short positions. The shift in focus of downstream styrene spot negotiations has had a certain impact on the pure benzene market. The demand for purchasing gas is average, and the price of local refineries in Shandong has been lowered to stimulate short supply and purchase of goods at low prices. The overall market is currently in a stalemate.
This week, Sinopec lowered its price by 100 yuan/ton to 5850 yuan/ton.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On June 5th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.37 per barrel, an increase of $0.52 or 0.8%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August was $65.34 per barrel, an increase of $0.48 or 0.7%.
Pure benzene trading: On June 5th, FOB Korea fell by 3 to 702 US dollars/ton, CFR China fell by 2 to 720 US dollars/ton, FOB Rotterdam stabilized at 672 US dollars/ton, and FOB USG stabilized at 248 US cents/gallon.
Overall forecast: In the short term, the pure benzene market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation, with a wait-and-see attitude towards cost and demand news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been running weakly this month, with an average market price of 1290 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1275 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has dropped by 1.19%, a year-on-year decrease of 46.34%. On May 28th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 84.69, a decrease of 0.03 points from yesterday, setting a new historical low for the cycle, and a decrease of 64.09% from the highest point of 235.84 points on November 10, 2021. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1300-1450 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1400-1600 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in May. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1408 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1386 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.56% compared to the same period last year, which was 35.83%.
Business analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, with the overall weak performance of upstream raw material soda ash in March. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this month (5.1-5.30), with an average market price of 261240 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 251610 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 3.89%.

The sudden introduction of unexpected tariff policies by the United States has led to a significant drop in tin prices. Subsequently, in April, the Bisie mining area in the Democratic Republic of Congo announced the resumption of production, further exacerbating the downward trend in tin prices.
On the supply side, the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar continues to decrease, and the tight supply situation at the upstream mining end has not yet been alleviated. Although the artificial intelligence boom once drove the growth of the downstream semiconductor industry, this growth trend has gradually slowed down in recent times. At present, the impact of US tariff policies on market prices is gradually weakening. However, international macro policies may quickly adjust and change in the future. Against this backdrop, tin prices, which have seen significant increases in the previous period, may exhibit a wide range of fluctuations.
On the consumer side, after the end of the May Day holiday, some downstream processing enterprises in the industry chain have started to resume work and production, and the demand for low-priced inventory replenishment in the market has been released to a certain extent. However, transactions for high priced goods still appear relatively quiet. At the end of the month, tin prices plummeted, and the trading activity in the spot market significantly increased. After experiencing a sharp decline in tin prices, some companies seized the opportunity to launch procurement actions. With the further decline in prices, the purchasing willingness of downstream and end enterprises has significantly increased, and they have made essential purchases according to actual needs and appropriately replenished inventory.
Overall, there are still hidden concerns on the demand side, that is, in the context of global trade conflicts, the global economic growth rate is facing the risk of decline, which brings great uncertainty to the demand for tin. Although the resumption of production in the mining sector and trade conflicts between major countries have had a negative impact on tin prices, the strong performance of the current actual demand side and the shortage of tin ore supply can still provide some support for tin prices.