1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average price of PS brand 525 at the beginning of January was 9766 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS brand 525 at the end of the month was 9733 yuan/ton, down 0.34%, down 3.63% compared with the same period of the year.

2、 Market analysis

The factory price of domestic PS is weak and downward, and merchants are unable to deliver goods at reduced prices. It will take time for the transaction to recover after the holiday, and the market price reduction is limited. At present, the enthusiasm of small and medium-sized downstream factories for replenishment has declined. On December 30, 2022, the price of perbenzene in the East China market fell by 100 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton, and the price of perbenzene was stable at 10250 yuan/ton.

At the cost side, the basic support is limited, and the market lacks positive support. At the supply and demand side, the supply and demand structure may still be loose. As the profit turns to loss, the pressure on the inventory increases continuously. In the second half of January, there is no shortage of production reduction and negative reduction of devices.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The overall performance of PS market in January was weak, and it is expected that the price of PS will be mainly in a weak trend.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of Business News Agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has risen recently. The average price of styrene in Shandong was 8166.67 yuan/ton on the 9th and 8458.33 yuan/ton on the 16th, up 3.57%. The price fell 2.84% year-on-year.

styrene

The market price of styrene has risen recently. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating, and the price continues to rise this week. The international crude oil price has been rising continuously, the pure benzene market has been rising, and the cost support is good. Although the downstream is just needed, the purchase intention is good, which has some support for the market. The styrene market is mainly rising with the cost rise.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene showed an upward trend this week. The price of pure benzene was 6850-7050 yuan/ton (average price 6950 yuan/ton) on January 9 and 6950-7070 yuan/ton (average price 7060 yuan/ton) on Friday (January 13). The price was 0.31% higher than last week and 1.46% higher than the same period last year.

Downstream, the three major downstream of styrene rose and fell in different ways. At present, the PS market is in a narrow range. This week, the average price of PS ordinary materials is 9733 yuan/ton, and the price is stable. At present, the PS market is flat, with strong cost support, and the number of offers from merchants is gradually decreasing, with few transactions.

The EPS price has declined slightly recently. The overall turnover weakened on a month-on-month basis. The average price of EPS ordinary materials is 10275 yuan/ton, and the buying enthusiasm is not high. The EPS market quotation is weak, and the manufacturers maintain a stable price for shipment, and the terminal demand performance is low.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has risen slightly. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average price on January 16 was 11847 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the average price at the beginning of the month. At present, the downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, prepare goods in a orderly manner, and prepare goods before the festival in the field. The recent demand is fair, and the goods are normally transported in the field. Buyers and merchants followed the market and performed steadily.

The price of crude oil has been rising continuously and the cost support is good, but the Spring Festival is approaching, the transportation is not smooth, and the overall supply and demand before the festival is weakened by shocks, and the styrene market is expected to be dominated by shocks and consolidation.

Zinc price fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the zinc price was 24044 yuan/ton as of January 13, up 2.64% from 23426 yuan/ton on January 6 last weekend. Replenishment before the holiday, the demand of zinc market increased, and the price of zinc rose in shock this week.

Overview of zinc market

In December, the CPI of the United States increased by 6.5% year-on-year, lower than 7.1% of the previous value. The inflation data of the United States fell, and the Lun zinc bottomed out overnight; The capital situation of domestic real estate enterprises improved, supported the zinc price with good expectations, replenished the inventory of downstream customers near the end of the year, and increased the demand side.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the data analysts of the Business News Agency, inflation in the United States has declined, the economic downturn has slowed, the zinc market has strengthened, and the replenishment of the zinc market has increased near the Spring Festival. The demand for zinc in the short term has warmed, and the price of zinc has risen in shock; As the Spring Festival approaches the end of replenishment, the risk of zinc price decline increases, and the zinc price is expected to fall slightly in the future.

Since October 2022, the domestic bisphenol A market has declined sharply, and the market has remained sluggish since the New Year’s Day. As of January 11, the market negotiation was between 9600-9800 yuan/ton, down 37.7% from 15687 yuan/ton on October 1, 2022. The downward trend is mainly due to the serious contradiction between supply and demand, and it is difficult to support the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.

Capacity release and supply increase, and capacity continues to expand in 2023, and supply pressure remains

Since October 2022, the supply of domestic bisphenol A has increased significantly, including 200000 tons/year of Luxi Chemical Group Co., Ltd., 240000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd., and 240000 tons/year of Jiangsu Ruiheng New Material Technology Co., Ltd., with a total capacity of 680000 tons put into production successively. However, except for the maintenance of several sets of devices in November, the loss of domestic devices is significantly lower than the increase in production, and the domestic supply of bisphenol A has an obvious increasing trend, Compared with the average monthly output of 180000 to 200000 tons in the previous period, the overall supply increased significantly in the fourth quarter.

In 2023, China’s bisphenol A production capacity will still increase and the supply pressure will remain. It is understood that another 610000 tons of bisphenol A production capacity will be put into operation in 2023, including 200000 tons/year of Guangxi Huayi, 170000 tons/year of South Asia Plastics, 240000 tons/year of Wanhua, and 680000 tons in the fourth quarter of 2022. It is estimated that the production capacity base will reach 5.1 million tons/year in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of about 38%. At present, the economy is in the recovery period, and there are still various uncertainties in the first half of the year. The supply side pressure caused by the continuous expansion of production capacity still exists.

The terminal demand recovery is uncertain under the epidemic situation

The impact of the epidemic on the domestic economic development and the recovery of terminal factory demand is still large, especially in the first half of 2023, which will remain the focus of market recovery. Although various policies have been introduced to boost the market, the recovery of demand still needs some time to digest. Downstream demand and consumption decreased. From November to New Year’s Day, products such as epoxy resin and PC were mainly used to digest the raw materials in stock. The purchase intention weakened, and with the decrease of terminal orders, downstream epoxy resin and other products fell simultaneously. After the New Year’s Day, the material preparation of the downstream wind power industry has improved, but the market fluctuation is not obvious. According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, East China liquid epoxy resin has fallen by 25% and PC products have fallen by 8% since the fourth quarter.

Profit redistribution of bisphenol A industrial chain

It can be seen from the bisphenol A industry chain diagram that the decline of bisphenol A is greater than that of raw phenol and acetone, and the profit space of bisphenol A is decreasing. Especially in December, with the rebound of the phenol/acetone market, bisphenol A is not supported by costs, but continues to decline under supply pressure, and the industry profits and profits are in a loss state. From the perspective of the two downstream industries, the decline of epoxy resin was comparable to that of raw materials, while the decline of PC products was lower than that of raw material bisphenol A due to the impact of its own supply and demand. However, in view of the impact of high price raw material bisphenol A, PC was in a loss state, and the downstream PC turned into profit in the two months at the end of the year, and the gross profit of the industry increased. With the continuous release of top-down capacity and profit redistribution of bisphenol A industry, the capacity of each node will increase significantly in 2023, and the changes in supply and demand and profit at each node can be focused on.

As the Spring Festival approaches, the market demand is sluggish, and the market negotiation atmosphere of bisphenol A is quiet. The demand side of epoxy resin has been slightly improved by the downstream wind power industry stock, but the increase in demand is less than the expansion of the supply side, which is difficult to support the raw material bisphenol A. From the perspective of cost, the overall decline of phenol and acetone was greater than the rise. Recently, the market stopped falling and rebounded, but it was difficult to form a strong support for the cost. It is expected that bisphenol A will continue to operate in a volatile manner in the short term. With the gradual release of new capacity in the long-term bisphenol A market, the supply side is loose, and the market pressure is still high. Pay attention to the adjustment of main factories and the production of new capacity.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average price of PA6 at the beginning of the year in 2022 was 15633.33 yuan/ton. As of December 31, the price of PA6 was 13333.33 yuan/ton, down 14.71% throughout the year. The overall trend was high and then low, and the decline was concentrated in the middle of the year.

The market trend of PA6 in 2022 is mainly divided into three stages:

The first stage: high shock stage. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average price of PA6 was 15633.33 yuan/ton on January 1. After that, the market fluctuated and rose to the annual high of 16666.67 yuan/ton on March 12 and June 9 respectively, with a range increase of 6.61%. During this period, the stock boom before the Spring Festival pushed up the price of some brands. After the holiday, the market was affected by the health event and the logistics was blocked. The downstream enterprises resumed work slowly and the demand release lagged behind. Fortunately, the upstream market of lactam was strong, and the spot price of PA6 was raised. Since then, there has been a tug of war between the cost side and the demand side, and the price reached the highest point of the previous year for the second time in early June. On the whole, the fundamentals in the first stage are mixed, and generally fluctuated at high levels.

The second stage: rapid decline stage. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of PA6 increased from 16666.67 yuan/ton on June 9 to 13733.33 yuan/ton on September 1, with a rapid decline of 17.60%. At this stage, the oil and chemical industry chain continued to be affected by the turbulence in Europe, and the international crude oil fluctuated violently, driving the prices of pure benzene and caprolactam in the upstream to fall sharply. In addition, with the background of long-term tepid load of downstream enterprises, PA6, which has lost its cost-side support, fell rapidly. During this period, the market turnover was dismal, and most of the business operations were to make profits and ship goods. On the whole, the market in the second stage fell into a deep pattern of weak cost and demand.

The third stage: the consolidation stage of the weak. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of December 31, the price of PA6 was 13333.33 yuan/ton, down 2.91% from 13733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of September. At the beginning of this stage is the traditional demand peak season “Golden Nine”, but the fulfillment of the seasonal consumption volume in 2022 is not good, and the demand peak is short-lived, only pushing up the market in the first half of September, resulting in the embarrassing situation of “the peak season is not prosperous”. After the caprolactam supply contracted, the price of PA6 found a fulcrum and stopped rising. Near the end of the year, the increase of PA6 price gradually retreated with the reduction of large-scale stock. In addition, the upstream profits were exhausted, and the market price fell again. Three stages

In general, the trend of PA6 market in 2022 is mainly affected by the following aspects:

The trend of raw material caprolactam is differentiated, and the cost side of PA6 is cut to the bottom

In 2022, the caprolactam market fluctuated widely. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average spot price of domestic caprolactam was 11066.67 yuan/ton as of December 31, 2022, down 21.51% from 14100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The price position of the first half and the second half of the year was relatively different. In the first half of the year, the tense situation in Europe pushed up the international crude oil price, resulting in a rise in the price of pure benzene and caprolactam, which supported the price of PA6. In the second half of the year, affected by macro inflation and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase, the market worried more. The price of crude oil fluctuated violently, and the bad news was transmitted downward along the petrochemical industry chain, and caprolactam turned down, and then it was sorted and operated in a weak position. In addition, 300000 tons of caprolactam will be put into production in 2022 in China. Although the growth rate of the industry is slower than that in 2021, the overall enthusiasm of the industry has declined due to overcapacity and poor profitability of enterprises. The caprolactam market as a whole supported the decline of PA6.

V. Steady expansion of enterprises and further easing of industry supply

China’s PA6 industry has steadily expanded its production and capacity in recent years. According to the business news agency, in 2022, five enterprises in China will expand or build new units. If the new capacity is realized on time, the backward capacity of 134000 tons/year will be eliminated, and the total domestic PA6 capacity will reach 6158000 tons/year. Under the background of the gradual increase of the total domestic capacity, the pressure on the supply side will gradually increase, and the price level will be difficult to rise or fall.

The downstream load of the main force is not high, and the support force at the demand end is insufficient

The downstream of PA6 is mainly concentrated in chemical fiber textiles, engineering plastics, fishing nets and other fields. Among them, nylon filament is the main downstream of PA6, accounting for about 59% of consumption in 2022. Secondly, the consumption of engineering plastics accounted for about 17%. Thirdly, industrial silk and BOPA account for about 9% and 6% respectively. The change of demand proportion of downstream industries is limited, but under the macro economic environment in 2022, terminal demand will shrink significantly.

Take the nylon industry as a representative, the average operating rate in 2022 is 73.85%, and the overall demand is insufficient. The rest of the downstream are also impacted by the macro environment, resulting in different degrees of demand weakening. According to statistics, the estimated consumption of PA6 in 2022 may decrease by more than 0.80% compared with 2021. In the face of the steady growth of PA6 supply, the consumption that does not increase but decreases has really caused considerable pressure on the supply side.

Aftermarket forecast: PA6 analysts of the Business Agency believe that the capacity of PA6 will expand steadily in 2022, and downstream enterprises will be cautious in stocking goods, and the overall load level is not high. The consumption level shrank throughout the year, and the market was in a long-term pattern of contradiction between supply and demand. Upstream caprolactam fluctuated violently, the market fell in the second half of the year, and the support for PA6 declined. In terms of news, the current global inflationary economic environment remains unchanged, and the geopolitical conflicts in Europe promote the wide fluctuation of oil prices, which have a different degree of negative impact on the PA6 market. To sum up, in 2022, the PA6 industry’s negative situation is superimposed, the activities tend to be conservative, and the market momentum is general. The new capacity of PA6 in the current month is concentrated, and it is expected that the market situation of PA6 will continue to be weak in the short term. In the long run, the consumer side and the supply side will grow and fall, and it will take time for PA6 market to get out of the contradiction between supply and demand.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong fell from 9733.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9566.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 1.71%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 11.15%. The isooctanol commodity index on January 8 was 70.34, which was the same as yesterday, down 48.84% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 100.11% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand increases

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory quotation of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7244.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7250.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.08%, down 7.65% year-on-year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was general. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. The price of DOP rose from 9750.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9850.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.03%, up 4.48% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers actively increased their purchase of isooctanol.

Future prospects

In the middle and late January, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, with good cost support. Downstream DOP market rose slightly, and downstream demand increased. The isooctanol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market will probably rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business association, the market price of thermal phosphoric acid rose this week. As of January 6, the average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in the domestic market was 9050 yuan/ton, which was 0.28% higher than the average price of 9025 yuan/ton on January 2.

According to the data of the business cooperative, the market price of wet process phosphoric acid rose this week. As of January 6, the average market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 9083 yuan/ton, 1.30% higher than the average price of 8966 yuan/ton on January 2.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream market:

As of January 6, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan was about 8700-9250 yuan/ton, that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan was about 9200 yuan/ton, and that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei was about 9300 yuan/ton. The market quotation of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in Nanjing is about 9500 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose slightly this week. At present, the construction of Yunnan yellow phosphorus enterprises is declining, and the market supply is decreasing. The yellow phosphorus market is in a stalemate. After the price rebounded slightly, the downstream market was not enthusiastic about asking for goods and was cautious in taking goods. Yellow phosphorus enterprises are mainly issuing early orders. Up to now, the quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 32500-33500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to stabilize this week. As the Spring Festival approaches, some domestic mining enterprises stop mining. The downstream demand for phosphate rock is stable, the shipment rhythm is normal, and the supply side is still tight as a whole. The supply and demand information has not changed much. Some mining enterprises mainly pre receive orders after the Spring Festival, and the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard is mild.

Demand side:

The downstream demand of phosphoric acid is weak this week, some downstream enterprises have stopped work for holidays, and terminal procurement has decreased. The phosphoric acid market is in a stalemate, and the industry is mainly wait-and-see.

3、 Future market forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been adjusted and operated at a high price recently, and the cost side has not changed much. The demand for phosphoric acid terminals is sluggish, and the number of new orders is relatively small. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will be adjusted and operated in a narrow range in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the trend of raw material market and the change of demand side.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of January 4, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 1056 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as that of December 1, 2023. Compared with June 15, 2022 (the reference price of phosphorus ore is 1043 yuan/ton), the price is increased by 13 yuan/ton, or 1.21%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that after the 2023 New Year, the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to operate stably as a whole. As the Spring Festival approaches, some domestic mining enterprises stop mining. The downstream demand for phosphate rock is stable, the shipment rhythm is normal, and the supply side is still tight as a whole. The supply and demand information has not changed much. Some mining enterprises mainly pre receive orders after the Spring Festival, and the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard is mild. As of January 4, 2023, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate rock is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1150-1250 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the specific price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

In 2023, the domestic phosphorus ore market has not changed much. The overall market trend continues the stable trend at the end of 2022, and the supply and demand in the market is calm. The phosphorus ore datagrapher of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to consolidate and operate mainly in a stable manner, and more attention should be paid to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

Under the influence of poor domestic textile terminal demand and weak global economy, the domestic viscose staple fiber market in 2022 will rise first and then fall. According to the data of the business community, the factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in domestic areas was 12180 yuan/ton on January 1, 12900 yuan/ton on December 30, and the overall price of viscose staple fiber will rise 5.91% in 2022. The lowest point in the year was 12180 yuan/ton in January at the beginning of the year, and the highest point was 15660 yuan/ton in late June. The amplitude in the year was 28.57%.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber in 2022

The price change in 2022 can be divided into three stages:

The first stage (January 1 to June 1): The price of viscose staple fiber rose rapidly at this stage, from 12180 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 15500 yuan/ton, up 3320 yuan/ton, up 27.26%. The main driving force is the substantial upward movement of the cost side, the high global commodity prices, the rising raw material costs of pulp mills and the rising pulp prices, and the high price of imported dissolved pulp. At this time, the cost logic dominates, and the cash flow of viscose staple fiber industry fluctuates with the price of raw materials in a long-term negative situation.

The second stage (from June 1 to July 6): The price of viscose staple fiber in this stage still keeps rising, but the rising trend has slowed down significantly, from 15500 yuan/ton to 15660 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton. The main reason is the terminal consumption demand, the transfer of the inventory of the later spinning link to the downstream is blocked, and the market is not enthusiastic enough to continue to pursue growth. The sharp drop in the price of related competitive cotton caused a negative effect, which was transmitted to the shrinking demand for viscose staple fiber and the accumulation of cautious wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

The third stage (July 6 to December 30): The price of viscose staple fiber in this stage declined from 15660 yuan/ton to 12900 yuan/ton, down 2760 yuan/ton, or 17.62%. 7. In August, the turnover of terminal textile clothing orders in the high temperature off-season was light, and there was no obvious improvement in the traditional peak season in September. Downstream demand continued to be weak since October, while the compression of cotton viscose price difference led to the loss of some viscose staple fiber orders. In summer, under the situation of power rationing in most regions, the cotton yarn opening rate once reached a low level within the year, and the inventory of viscose staple fiber industry rose. At this time, the viscose staple fiber manufacturers repeatedly gave up prices and exchanged quantities at the downstream stocking nodes.

Cotton yarn market of downstream people

Trend Chart of Human Cotton Yarn Price in 2022

In 2022, the downstream human cotton yarn market followed the viscose staple fiber first to rise and then to fall. According to the data of the business community, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first class) on January 1 was 18266 yuan/ton, and the quotation on December 30 was 17466 yuan/ton. The overall price of human cotton yarn fell by 4.38% in 2022. The lowest point in the year was 17466 yuan/ton at the end of the year, and the highest point was 19233 yuan/ton in late June, with an annual amplitude of 9.19%.

Future market forecast

In 2022, affected by such negative factors as macro pressure and sluggish domestic and international textile demand, viscose staple fiber will fall from a high position. With the favorable policies at the end of the year, textile enterprises will resume their work in an orderly manner. The market generally believes that the consumption of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn will improve in 2023. In the long run, the supply of viscose staple fiber is loose, and the pattern of weak downstream demand has not changed. Analysts from the business community believe that it is unlikely that the market of viscose staple fiber industry chain will rise significantly in 2023.

In the short term, the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream signing of orders has been basically completed in the near future, the factory orders are mainly delivered, some yarn enterprises and terminal weaving factories have been closed for holidays, and the market demand for raw materials is further reduced. The analysts of the business community predict that the price of viscose staple fiber may be weak and stable, and the market will wait until the end of the year.