International crude oil rose sharply, but the weather turned cold, the demand of asphalt terminal market weakened, and the upward pressure of domestic asphalt price was greater. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the asphalt price was reported at 2292 yuan / ton on November 27, 1.55% higher than that at the beginning of the week.

In November, the international oil price continued to push up, and has been rising for four consecutive weeks. On the one hand, the good news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is good for the supply expectation. WTI crude oil prices rose 7.76% this week, while Brent crude oil prices rose 6.20%.

On the whole, the weather turned cold, and the domestic asphalt market demand continued to weaken. There is rainfall in some areas of East China and central China, and the demand for terminal asphalt is weakened; the terminal projects in South China and southwest China are relatively stable, and the rigid demand is released steadily; in North China and Shandong, the weather warning results in periodic shutdown of the project, and the asphalt demand is gradually decreased compared with the previous period; the rigid demand for asphalt in the northeast and northwest regions is basically over, and the asphalt demand is weak.

Domestic asphalt supply is at a high level, with a cumulative output of 26.95 million tons from January to October, an increase of 13% over the same period of last year. In November, the planned output of asphalt is 3.365 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 32.6%.

Business agency analysts believe that the national oil price has risen to a periodic high, and the epidemic situation has not improved. Therefore, the upward trend of oil price is full of resistance. As the weather turns cold, the terminal demand for asphalt is weakening, and the domestic asphalt price is expected to decline steadily.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of November 23, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in mainstream areas of China was around 390 yuan / ton, which was the same as a week ago; compared with November 1, the average price was increased by 4 yuan / ton, or 0.86%.

Weak downstream demand, phosphate rock market slightly weak

In a flash, November is coming to an end. Recently, China’s domestic phosphate ore market as a whole is still stable. It is heard that the turnover of phosphate rock in Guizhou and Hubei is slightly loose, and the market is slightly weak. The main reason is that the demand of the downstream terminal is weak, the market is falling slightly, the new orders of phosphate rock are reduced, and the orders in the early stage are mainly processed. Therefore, in order to stimulate the shipment, some enterprises slightly reduced the actual transaction price. At present, as of November 23, Guizhou Province: 30% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 300-360 yuan / ton, 28% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 280-320 yuan / ton, of which Guizhou Xinxin group mainly supplies 28% of phosphate rock with quality above. At present, the phosphate mine is still in operation. The 30% phosphate rock car plate price of the enterprise is 330 yuan / ton, the transaction price is slightly lower, and the enterprises focus on delivering the preliminary orders. Guizhou Kaiyang Guanglong mining 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant quoted 320 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the month. The price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei Province is 330-360 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is slightly lower.

In terms of downstream and yellow phosphorus, the starting load of downstream enterprises is not high, the overall demand is weak, and the market transaction center is close to the low end. At present, the reference transaction price of Yunnan Net phosphorus factory acceptance is 15500-15800 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of November 22, the factory reference price of yellow phosphorus was 16350 yuan / ton, which was 0.62% higher than that on November 1 (16250 yuan / ton). The phosphoric acid market remained stable for the time being, and the trading volume was relatively light.

Downstream operating rate decline, demand weakened, short-term phosphate rock Market narrow adjustment

At present, the downstream operating rate of domestic phosphate ore is gradually declining, the market demand is constantly reducing, and the situation of downstream goods is not good, which is difficult to support the continuous high and stable phosphorus ore market. Therefore, the phosphorus ore data analyst of business society believes that the phosphorus ore market in the short term may be adjusted by a narrow range.

On November 9, the international crude oil price rose sharply, driving the domestic gasoline and diesel prices to rise slightly. Later, due to the low enthusiasm of market procurement, gasoline and diesel prices fell again. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on November 13 was 5212 yuan / ton, down 0.03% from the beginning of the week; on November 13, the price of diesel oil was 4628 yuan / ton, down 0.14% from the beginning of the week.

Previously, Pfizer announced that its new crown vaccine had made a major breakthrough, and market optimism was high; Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said at the meeting on Monday that if OPEC + reached an agreement, the production reduction agreement might be adjusted, which also pushed up oil prices. In the later period, OPEC monthly report showed that it lowered the expectation of OPEC crude oil demand again; EIA sharply reduced the growth prospect of global oil demand in 2021 and other negative news, and international oil price in the later part of this week slightly reversed, with WTI crude oil price increasing by 8.05% and Brent crude oil price increasing by 8.44%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the weather turned cold and the number of car trips increased slightly, which had a certain supporting effect on the demand of gasoline market. However, on November 6, the price of domestic refined oil was adjusted and the wholesale and retail price of gasoline was reduced, and the enthusiasm of purchasing in the terminal market was not high. In terms of diesel demand, the domestic weather was getting colder, and the outdoor diesel demand for road engineering and infrastructure gradually entered the downward track, but it was not international The price of oil went up, and the price performance of diesel oil market was relatively strong.

As of November 13, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 75%, and the start-up load of the refinery remained at a high level, and the domestic refined oil supply was sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: the international crude oil price has skyrocketed, but it is still on the front line of $40 / barrel, and there is no sign of improvement in the foreign epidemic situation. The international crude oil market lacks the support of good news. In the short term, the international crude oil will continue to be under pressure, and the domestic demand for refined oil will be short of favorable support. It is expected that the domestic oil product price will be stable and small in the short term.

According to the business agency’s monitoring data, as of November 12, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 23700 yuan / ton, which was 933 yuan / ton, or 4.10%, compared with November 9; 3300 yuan / ton, or 16.18%; 5900 yuan / ton, or 33.15%, compared with October 1.

On the 11th of this week, a small number of organic silicon DMC manufacturers raised their prices again, and the quotation exceeded 24000 yuan / ton

In this week, the overall trend of silicone DMC market is still high and firm, and the phenomenon of reluctant to sell and close the offer has not been improved. On the 9th of the week, the price of a small number of silicone DMC manufacturers continued to rise, with an increase range of 300-500 yuan / ton. The factory inventory remained low, the supply was tight, and the orders were limited. Until the middle of the week, most factories were still closed and did not quote. The quotation of silicone DMC of a few factories increased again by 500-1300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of silicone DMC of a factory in Shandong Province rose to 24000-24200 yuan / ton, which was short-lived and limited. As of November 12, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 23700 yuan / ton, which was increased by 933 yuan / ton or 4.10% compared with that on Monday (November 9), 3300 yuan / ton or 16.18% higher than that on November 1, and 5900 yuan / ton, or 33.15%, compared with October 1.

On the downstream side, at present, the raw rubber factories in the downstream of silicone DMC are often closed without reporting, the raw materials are constantly pushed up, the cost pressure of raw silicone rubber is increasing, the market price continues to rise, the list is compact and the sealing is common, and a few factories are limited to receiving orders. It is expected that the market of raw silicone rubber will continue to run at a high level in the short term.

Shortage of supply does not alleviate the upward space of silicone DMC

At present, the inventory of silicone DMC market is low, and the demand exceeds demand. The demand gap of downstream is large. The sentiment of the industry continues to pull up. In the short term, the trend of silicone DMC market will continue to be strong and there is still room for upward growth.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 9, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6883.33 yuan / ton. Compared with November 6, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 333 yuan / T, or 5.09%; compared with November 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 300 yuan / ton, or 4.56%.

Downstream admission replenishment of n-butanol market rose

Since November, the market situation of n-butanol in China has been slightly weak. The upstream propylene market has provided cost support, but the downstream purchasing status is general, and the market price of n-butanol has not been effectively raised. Since last weekend, downstream butyl alcohol users have entered the market to replenish goods. The market is tight, and the supply and inventory are reduced. On Monday (9), the market center of gravity began to move up, and the main area of n-butanol The price quoted by the factory has been raised by 200-400 yuan / ton. Wanhua chemical North China n-butanol factory quotation reference 7100 yuan / ton, 400 yuan / ton higher than last weekend. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 6800 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of last week. At present, as of the 9th, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6883.33 yuan / ton, up 333 yuan / T, or 5.09%, compared with November 6, and 300 yuan / ton, or 4.56%, compared with November 1.

On the upstream side, since November 1, the price of upstream propylene market has been adjusted back. Since November, it has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton. On the 6th, the market began to stabilize the price. At the end of the week, some enterprises declined slightly and the price was slightly reduced. At present, the market turnover is between 6750 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6900 yuan / ton. At present, the shipment situation of the manufacturer is relatively ideal.

The raw material support is slightly weak, and the high-level finishing operation of n-butanol is mainly in the short term

At present, the attitude of n-butanol industry is good, and the downstream purchasing atmosphere is good. However, the raw materials are slightly weak at the weekend, and the support is slightly weak. It is expected that the high-level consolidation and operation of n-butanol market in the short term is mainly expected.

Canada’s biggest oil companies continue to report quarterly losses this year as lower crude oil prices and lower refining margins hurt earnings, Calgary reported.

The novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic hit Canada’s upstream and downstream sectors seriously, and Canada’s largest oil and gas producer Senkol energy reported third consecutive quarterly losses this year to October 28th.

Suncor Energy reported a net loss of $9 million (C $12 million) in the third quarter, although less than the losses in the previous two quarters, it was still a loss, especially compared with net income of $773 million (C $1035 million) in the third quarter of 2019.

Earlier this year, Suncor cut its dividend by 55% after reporting a first quarter loss.

Suncor Energy said on October 28 that in order to further reduce costs, the company will accelerate the structural layoffs of its employees in the next 18 months, with the layoff rate of about 10% – 15%.

On October 29, the Canadian oil sands companies, cenovus energy and husky energy, which just announced the merger agreement, also released their third quarter financial reports and also reported their respective losses. Cenovus energy reported a net loss of $145 million (C $194 million) in the third quarter, the third consecutive quarterly loss after a loss of $337 million (C $450 million) was recorded in a refinery jointly owned by cenovus energy and operator Phillips 66 in Borger, Texas.

In the case of husky energy, the company reported a significant net loss of $5.2 billion (C $7 billion) in the third quarter, as a result of lower long-term commodity price expectations and lower capital investment, which resulted in an after tax non cash impairment of $5.0 billion (C $6.7 billion).

“Despite the gradual improvement in oil prices in the third quarter, U.S. refining margins remain low, several refineries have reversed profits, and significant non cash losses caused by long-term commodity price assumptions and declining market indicators, including recently announced transactions,” hasky energy CEO rob Peabody said in a statement

“We believe that the merger with cenovus energy will bring significant long-term value to the company by creating a larger, stronger and more resilient Canadian integrated energy producer,” Peabody added

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the cobalt market will be volatile in 2020, and the cobalt price will rise and fall sharply. In October, the cobalt price will return to the price at the beginning of the year. As of October 31, the cobalt price was 268666.66 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.81% compared with the 266500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1). In 2020, the cobalt market will go through several stages: from January to February, it is expected to rise before the epidemic; from March to April, the epidemic will affect the shutdown stage; from May to July, the cobalt market will recover after the epidemic; from August to October, the post epidemic era will struggle to fall back.

Domestic mobile phone production and sales data in 2020

According to the statistics of China Academy of communications and communications, in 2020, the domestic mobile phone sales will drop sharply, and the demand of cobalt market will decline. Affected by the epidemic situation, the sales of mobile phones in 2020 will drop sharply. In February and March, the sales of mobile phones will drop to the historical level. Due to the full resumption of production and work in April, the sales of mobile phones will recover temporarily, and the demand of cobalt market will recover briefly. Then, affected by the global epidemic situation, the sales of mobile phones will drop sharply and the demand of cobalt market will gradually decline. In 2020, the overall performance of mobile phone market is weak, the demand of cobalt market falls sharply, and the market of cobalt market is negative.

Domestic new energy vehicle market in 2020

According to the statistics of CAAC, from January to September 2020, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles have reached 738000 and 734000 respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.7% and 17.7%. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased month by month, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the whole year still declined. The demand of new energy vehicles on the cobalt market is limited, and there is no support for the rise of cobalt market.

Import data of cobalt raw materials

According to data from the customs website, China’s total imports of cobalt raw materials from January to September 2020 totaled 61200 tons of metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. From January to September, the import volume of cobalt raw materials decreased slightly, the supply of cobalt decreased slightly, the domestic cobalt market demand was poor, and the domestic cobalt traders’ enthusiasm for import was general.

Market Overview

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, the cobalt market will experience several price changes in 2020. In the first stage, from January to February, before the outbreak of the epidemic, the national market has not been affected. The demand of cobalt market is expected to rise sharply in 2020, and the price of cobalt will fluctuate; in the second stage, from March to April, the epidemic situation will break out completely, and the domestic production will be stopped completely, and the cobalt market demand will drop rapidly, and the cobalt price will drop sharply; in the third stage, from May to July, the cobalt market will recover In order to stimulate economic recovery, China and EU countries have launched policies to increase the development of new energy vehicles. The global production and sales of new energy vehicles are surging, and the global demand for cobalt market is slowly rising. In July, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles are surging, and the global demand of cobalt market is rising slowly From August to October, the positive stimulus news and policies of cobalt market continued, but the actual demand of cobalt market did not improve. After struggling performance of cobalt Market in August and September, the cobalt market finally recovered the price at the beginning of the year, and the favorable support of cobalt market was insufficient. Generally speaking, the demand and supply of cobalt market will decline in 2020, but the overall supply will exceed the demand, and the driving force for the rise of cobalt market will be insufficient. It is expected that the cobalt price will decline slightly in the future.