Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the cobalt market will be volatile in 2020, and the cobalt price will rise and fall sharply. In October, the cobalt price will return to the price at the beginning of the year. As of October 31, the cobalt price was 268666.66 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.81% compared with the 266500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1). In 2020, the cobalt market will go through several stages: from January to February, it is expected to rise before the epidemic; from March to April, the epidemic will affect the shutdown stage; from May to July, the cobalt market will recover after the epidemic; from August to October, the post epidemic era will struggle to fall back.

Domestic mobile phone production and sales data in 2020

According to the statistics of China Academy of communications and communications, in 2020, the domestic mobile phone sales will drop sharply, and the demand of cobalt market will decline. Affected by the epidemic situation, the sales of mobile phones in 2020 will drop sharply. In February and March, the sales of mobile phones will drop to the historical level. Due to the full resumption of production and work in April, the sales of mobile phones will recover temporarily, and the demand of cobalt market will recover briefly. Then, affected by the global epidemic situation, the sales of mobile phones will drop sharply and the demand of cobalt market will gradually decline. In 2020, the overall performance of mobile phone market is weak, the demand of cobalt market falls sharply, and the market of cobalt market is negative.

Domestic new energy vehicle market in 2020

According to the statistics of CAAC, from January to September 2020, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles have reached 738000 and 734000 respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.7% and 17.7%. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased month by month, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the whole year still declined. The demand of new energy vehicles on the cobalt market is limited, and there is no support for the rise of cobalt market.

Import data of cobalt raw materials

According to data from the customs website, China’s total imports of cobalt raw materials from January to September 2020 totaled 61200 tons of metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. From January to September, the import volume of cobalt raw materials decreased slightly, the supply of cobalt decreased slightly, the domestic cobalt market demand was poor, and the domestic cobalt traders’ enthusiasm for import was general.

Market Overview

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, the cobalt market will experience several price changes in 2020. In the first stage, from January to February, before the outbreak of the epidemic, the national market has not been affected. The demand of cobalt market is expected to rise sharply in 2020, and the price of cobalt will fluctuate; in the second stage, from March to April, the epidemic situation will break out completely, and the domestic production will be stopped completely, and the cobalt market demand will drop rapidly, and the cobalt price will drop sharply; in the third stage, from May to July, the cobalt market will recover In order to stimulate economic recovery, China and EU countries have launched policies to increase the development of new energy vehicles. The global production and sales of new energy vehicles are surging, and the global demand for cobalt market is slowly rising. In July, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles are surging, and the global demand of cobalt market is rising slowly From August to October, the positive stimulus news and policies of cobalt market continued, but the actual demand of cobalt market did not improve. After struggling performance of cobalt Market in August and September, the cobalt market finally recovered the price at the beginning of the year, and the favorable support of cobalt market was insufficient. Generally speaking, the demand and supply of cobalt market will decline in 2020, but the overall supply will exceed the demand, and the driving force for the rise of cobalt market will be insufficient. It is expected that the cobalt price will decline slightly in the future.