According to the data of the commodity list of the business society, the recent formaldehyde Market in Shandong is stable. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1167.67 yuan / ton. The current price is down 4.11% month on month, and the current price is up 10.06% year on year.

Recently, the domestic formaldehyde market price fluctuated and consolidated. As of December 28, the mainstream factory price in Central China was about 1250 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory price in North China was 1000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory price in East China was 1210 yuan / ton. Shandong Linyi Hongfa formaldehyde production capacity of 70000 tons / year formaldehyde plant shutdown. Recently, environmental management and control in Shandong Province has been upgraded, and some formaldehyde factories have been shut down for maintenance. Generally speaking, the market turnover rate is low.

Upstream methanol situation: Shandong methanol Lubei market negotiation focused on 2270-2290 yuan / ton to cash. The quotation of methanol market in southern Shandong fell by 10 yuan / ton to 2330-2340 yuan / ton in cash. Linyi received local goods at 2300-2320 yuan / ton, and delivered them without tax. The quotation of logistics goods is not available. The transaction price of methanol market in central Shandong is stable at 2340 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of peripheral goods is stable at 2280-2300 yuan / ton, and the negotiation is limited. Methanol market in some areas fell slightly, limited support for formaldehyde.

Recently, the environmental protection control continued to upgrade, the traditional downstream wood board enterprises were affected by this, the demand for formaldehyde continued to weaken, and the market trading atmosphere was light. Formaldehyde market shock consolidation.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol market fluctuated slightly, with little change. Formaldehyde manufacturers and some downstream plate enterprises were affected by the new round of domestic environmental protection control and stopped production. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of business society chemical branch predicted that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong would mainly fall below.

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, acetic anhydride prices temporarily stable this week, acetic anhydride market stability. As of December 21, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted was 7600.00 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable, up 0% compared with the 7600.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (December 13), and increased by 69.83% compared with the same period last year.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the acetic acid price trend chart, the acetic acid price fell slightly this week, with a decrease of 2.78%. This week, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride weakened, the downward pressure increased, and the market of acetic anhydride fell.

Methanol price trend

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart, the methanol price rose by 7.04% this week; the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force of acetic anhydride market was still there.

Market review and future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from the business agency, the price of acetic anhydride raw material acetic acid fell this week, and the price of methanol rose. The overall cost of acetic anhydride fluctuated to maintain stability, and the driving force of acetic anhydride market still remained, and the downward pressure increased. With the price of raw materials of acetic anhydride stabilized, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, and the market of acetic anhydride stabilized. Overall, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials tends to be stable, and the future market of acetic anhydride is stable.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline this week. As of the 18th day, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 6075 yuan / ton, which was 7.78% lower than the price of 6587.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 4.33% lower than that at the beginning of the week. The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply.

This week, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride dropped sharply. The situation of the sale of phthalic anhydride market was general. In the near future, the downstream demand declined, the price of o-benzene decreased, the market of plasticizer was general, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market dropped sharply. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers have little change in operation. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride is about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply is sufficient. The downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand. The situation of on-site delivery is not good, and the market price is falling. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is declining, and the high-end transaction is limited. In East China, the mainstream of neighboring France source negotiation is 6000-6200 yuan / ton, naphthalene method is 5900-6000 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6000-6200 yuan / ton, and the market outlook of phthalic anhydride is still in the market, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to decline.

This week, the domestic price of o-benzene dropped to 5500 yuan / T, with a decrease of 1.08%. The decline of domestic o-benzene price was the negative effect of phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import market of o-benzene in port area declined, and the external quotation of o-benzene was mainly lower. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. The actual list was discussed in detail. In addition, the on-site o-benzene merchants were still in a wait-and-see mood, so the o-benzene price went The trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market price fell down slightly, and the price of raw material ortho benzene declined, which was negative for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride. In addition, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride fell due to the sufficient supply of goods.

The DOP market price of phthalic anhydride downstream rose sharply this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic DOP price was 10533.33 yuan / ton as of the 18th day, which was 8.22% higher than the price of 9733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The price of octanol for DOP raw materials rose sharply. The equipment of DOP enterprises began to decrease. PVC prices rebounded and recovered. Downstream customers actively purchased and plasticizer transactions were active. DOP manufacturers started stable, DOP supply was normal, plasticizer prices rose, the transaction price was subject to the real-time price, the overall DOP price was about 10600-11000 yuan / ton, the future DOP market continued to rise, but the poor delivery of phthalic anhydride in the field led to a sharp decline in price.

On the whole, the recent trend of crude oil price remains high, the domestic o-benzene price is slightly lower, but the plasticizer market price has increased, and the phthalic anhydride market price is lower.

In the future, the domestic o-benzene price trend is mainly down, but the plasticizer trading market is general, the floor price has an upward trend, and the future DOP price trend is rising. It is expected that the phthalic anhydride market price will remain mainly volatile next week.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic BDO producers at the beginning and end of the week was 13125 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 9.38% and a year-on-year increase of 34.20%. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of bulk water supply in East China is 12400-12800 yuan / ton, while that in South China is 12400-12800 yuan / ton. The average price in East China is 12600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week.

New listing price and settlement price

Enterprises, settlement in November (bulk water delivery), listing in December (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 11600 yuan / ton, South China 11800 yuan / ton, East China 13000 yuan / ton, South China 13200 yuan / ton

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 11600 yuan / ton, South China 11800 yuan / ton, East China 13000 yuan / ton, South China 13200 yuan / ton

At present, the price of calcium carbide is higher than that of methanol. Downstream demand is relatively stable, and traders hold a wait-and-see attitude. At present, BDO price is at a high position, terminal demand performance is weak, downstream shipment is not smooth, cost is under pressure, strong resistance to high prices, the market is short of obvious good news guidance, short-term BDO market has no obvious change.

In terms of devices, Tianye’s 30000 ton unit is currently running stably; Hebi, Henan Province, is expected to restart on December 10 and produce products on December 12; Dongyuan unit is expected to increase its load to about 90%.

However, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the BDO market is in a stalemate situation. Business agency BDO analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic BDO market will remain stalemate.

On December 10, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $46.78/barrel, up $1.26 or 2.8%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the main contract settlement price to 50.25 US dollars / barrel, up 1.39 US dollars or 2.8%. International oil prices, WTI and Brent, both rose sharply on Thursday, with Brent breaking the $50 mark, mainly due to the positive news of the new crown vaccine, the market’s hope for a rebound in fuel demand, and the effect of news of oil well attacks in Iraq, offsetting the negative effect of the substantial increase in commercial crude oil inventories in the United States.

On Thursday, oil prices soared, the most important reason was the release of the good news of the new crown vaccine. The United Kingdom has started mass vaccination of the new crown vaccine, and the United States has achieved remarkable results in previous vaccination experiments. Therefore, it is reported that the United States may approve the application of vaccine soon, which largely re ignites the hope of fuel demand recovery, and also dilutes the benefit of EIA inventory data on Wednesday Empty.

According to the inventory data released by EIA on Wednesday, US commercial crude oil inventories showed a significant increase, with US crude oil inventories increasing by 15.189 million barrels to 503.31 million barrels. Analysts expect a 1.4 million barrel reduction. Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels to 23785.9 million barrels that week. The U.S. inventory data has brought a great negative stimulus to the oil market and brought great pressure on the oil price. However, the market was also affected by the news of the oil well attack in Iraq. On Wednesday, the oil price rose and fell sharply, but closed at the median. It seems that the oil market is still seeking market balance. What breaks this balance happens to be the positive stimulation of the vaccine.

In addition, market participants said that the driving demand in the United States has returned, and it is hoped that the suppressed demand will rebound strongly in 2021. More European and American people may gradually start the driving season and the market is expected to warm up. At the same time, China’s recovery in the late stage of the epidemic is very good, and the market demand has been steadily rising. Both crude oil imports and refined oil consumption are commendable. China is currently the largest country in the world in crude oil import, which plays a strong stabilizing role in global fuel demand.

From the supply side, OPEC + continued to reduce production policy also plays a positive role. OPEC + will only increase production by 500000 B / D next year, which is relatively moderate, and also provides a good environment for oil prices to rise.

Beijing time, Thursday night, the latest news shows that Kuwait and Iran have issued a notice to Asian customers to raise oil prices in January next year, and the market has responded quickly. Oil producing countries are eager for high oil prices, and OPEC + policy may still favor oil prices in the future. On the whole, the business club believes that the oil price may remain strong in the near future, and the oil market is expected to maintain the growth in demand brought about by mass vaccination for a period of time.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, on November 30, the coking coal market in North China was about 1416.67 yuan / ton, and on December 7, the average market price was 1433.33 yuan / ton, up 1.18%, down 1.17% from the same period last year. The price of coking coal is relatively strong.

The commodity index of coking coal on December 6 was 105.78, unchanged with yesterday, down 12.96% from 121.53 (March 12, 2019), and 135.54% higher than the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

According to the business association, the supply guarantee policy has been promoted, but with the frequent occurrence of coal mine accidents, the safety production signal at the end of the year has been enhanced, and the supply guarantee policy has been promoted, the supply of coking coal has decreased. The coking coal is mainly operated in strong condition.

Demand: on the downstream side, the coke market was relatively strong on July 7. The eighth round of increase of 50 yuan / ton was gradually implemented. Today, Shandong, Hebei, Shaanxi, Henan and other places landed, with an accumulated increase of 400 yuan / ton. Under the influence of environmental protection supervision, the operating rate in some areas of Shanxi has dropped to about 40%. In addition, the plan of de capacity in Henan and Hebei is steadily advancing, and the coke supply is slightly tight in the near future. In terms of ports, the two ports in Shandong are relatively strong in operation and have a good market mentality. Today, the ex warehouse price of quasi first grade coke is 2360 yuan / ton. Port inventory increased slightly.

According to the coking coal analysts of the business association, the ports in Shandong are relatively strong in operation, and the market mentality is good. Today, the spot exchange ex warehouse price of quasi first grade coke is 2360 yuan / ton. The game between coke and steel continues, some steel mills accept the increase, and the coke enterprises have high enthusiasm for production and purchase of coking coal. Generally speaking, it is expected that coking coal will be mainly operated in a short term or strong way in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply in mid November, and DOP price broke through the 10000 yuan mark. After that, DOP price stabilized and decreased slightly. As of November 30, the average price of DOP quotation was 9866.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 32.44%. The sharp rise of DOP price has great pressure on downstream production and procurement, and the downward pressure of DOP in the future market is increasing.

Upstream market of industrial chain

 
It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride that the market of phthalic anhydride rose sharply in November and then fell back slightly. The sharp rise of phthalic anhydride price in November exerted great pressure on the rise of DOP. However, as the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized and fell slightly, the cost of DOP fell slightly, the rise of DOP lost support, and the rising power of DOP in the future market was weakened, and the downward pressure was increased.

It can be seen from the octanol price trend chart that the octanol price tends to be stable after the sharp rise in November, and the DOP rise momentum is greater in November. With the octanol price stable, the DOP upward momentum weakens.

Downstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the PVC price trend chart that the price of PVC rose sharply in the first and second half of November and stabilized in the last ten days. Affected by the rising cost, PVC prices rose sharply in the first and second half of the year. With the gradual stabilization of upstream raw material prices, PVC prices remained stable and DOP demand was stable, which did not support the rise of DOP, and the plasticizer DOP market was negative.

Market review and future expectation

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with DOP data of the business agency, the domestic commodity market rose sharply in November, and the DOP industrial chain products followed the rise, and DOP prices rose sharply in mid November. Since the end of last ten days, due to the small change in the supply-demand relationship, the soaring market has not been continued, and DOP prices have stabilized. Moreover, the sharp rise in the early stage has resulted in excessive pressure on downstream costs and increased pressure on downstream users to purchase. Generally speaking, there is insufficient support for the rise of DOP in the future market, and the downward pressure is prominent. It is expected that the future DOP market will fluctuate and fall slightly.