Crude oil and condensate production in OPEC member countries and non OPEC countries has been interrupted since last year, according to the hydrocarbon processing network on October 14. These disruptions have led to a reduction in liquid fuel supply, together with a reduction in crude oil production agreed by OPEC and the allies, which has led to a reduction in global liquid fuel stocks since June.

So far in 2020, the average daily oil supply disruption has been 4.6 million barrels per day, reaching 5.2 million barrels in June, the highest level since 2011, when the energy information agency (EIA) began to track monthly interruptions in liquid fuel production. In 2019, global oil supply disruptions averaged 3.1 million barrels a day. In calculating supply disruptions, the EIA does not take into account the closure of oil fields for economic reasons or the decline in oil demand.

Non OPEC oil producers, mainly from the United States and Canada, saw oil supply disruptions rise to nearly 800000 B / D in August. In Canada, due to a coronavirus outbreak at the production site, operators ordered non essential staff to stop working, resulting in production interruption. In the United States, disruptions caused by hurricanes and unplanned maintenance affected oil production this summer. Other non OPEC countries have caused temporary closures for various reasons, such as an outbreak of coronavirus among workers, logistical problems in transporting workers or equipment during the outbreak, fires in Canadian field operations or other natural disasters.

In its short-term energy outlook (steo), EIA released estimates of historically unplanned production disruptions. In the estimation of disruption, the EIA distinguishes between production decline due to unplanned production disruption, permanent capacity loss and voluntary production reduction. The EIA estimates unplanned disruptions based on the difference between the estimated effective capacity (the level of supply available within a year) and the estimated production.

The international crude oil price fluctuated in a narrow range, the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit load of the refinery was high, and the domestic product oil supply was sufficient, and the product oil price fell slightly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on October 16 was 5307 yuan / ton, down 0.86% from the beginning of the week; on October 16, the price of diesel oil was 4621 yuan / ton, down 0.04% from the beginning of the week.

Saudi Arabia cut crude oil prices in the middle of the week; demand for crude oil in Europe has been declining due to the impact of the new crown; Saudi Arabia has put pressure on OPEC and Russia to reduce crude oil production; EIA data show that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.818 million barrels in the week of October 9. The international crude oil market is intertwined with long and short news, and the international oil price is operating in a narrow range. WTI crude oil prices rose 1.28% and Brent crude oil prices rose 0.19%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the post holiday replenishment demand did not bring substantial improvement to the refined oil market, and the car travel decreased after the festival, the terminal demand decreased, and the overall performance of gasoline demand was poor. In terms of diesel, driven by downstream rush work after the festival, the demand is relatively strong. The demand for infrastructure construction and outdoor oil consumption increased. However, under the current abundant supply fundamentals, refineries mainly promote shipment.

On October 16, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 75%, and the start-up load of the refinery was maintained at a high level, and the domestic refined oil supply was sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: the lack of favorable international crude oil market will keep the international crude oil price under pressure; and the domestic refined oil supply is sufficient, and refineries have more sales promotion, and it is expected that the domestic oil product price will continue to decline steadily.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose sharply this week. As of October 16, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 6005 yuan / ton, up 3.94% compared with the beginning of the week and 6.14% higher than the same period of last month.

After the National Day Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the overall inventory of domestic ethyl acetate Market decreased significantly. In addition, some enterprises reduced the burden of maintenance, resulting in tight market supply, increased downstream market demand, strong cost support, and the ethyl acetate Market increased significantly. At present, East China is about 6000 yuan / ton, North China is about 5900 yuan / ton, and South China is about 6300 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the overall inventory of acetic acid market was low, and Jiantao in Hebei Province stopped for a short time within the week, which aggravated the tense situation of market supply. In addition, the market demand increased, and the price of acetic acid continued to rise. The price of corn for ethanol is still at a high level, and there is not much supply in the market. However, the downstream market is resistant to the high price of ethanol and will remain stable in a short time. At present, ethanol in East China is about 6500 yuan / ton.

The international market price of ethyl acetate is strong, and the port price in European market is about 820-850 euro / ton, and that in North America is about 700 US dollars / ton.

According to the ethyl acetate analysts of the business club, the domestic ethyl acetate Market is tight, the downstream terminal demand is better, and the support from the cost side is strong, and multiple favorable factors support the price of ethyl acetate.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on August 27, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7033 yuan / ton, with a slight price fluctuation, ranging from 100 to 300 yuan / ton. The carbon black market was mainly volatile this week.

Market conditions

The increase of carbon black production fell down

In the first half of 2020, the total output of carbon black in the first half of 2020 was 2.22 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. Among the key statistical enterprises, there were 5 enterprises with positive growth in output. The growth rate of Shanxi Anlun, Shandong Jinneng technology, Shanxi top three and Shandong Lianke was relatively high. The output of other 9 enterprises decreased compared with that of the same period. The enterprises with a large decline were Cabot and Jiang Xiheimao, Longxing Chemical, Qingzhou Boao, Dashiqiao Liaobin, Shandong Neste and other enterprises.

According to the statistics of carbon black branch, the industry as a whole is in a state of loss in 2019, with a sharp decline compared with the same period, and the total profit decreased by 105%. Among the statistics, 11 enterprises lost money, and the loss area reached 32%.

In the first half of 2020, the overall loss of the industry continued, and the amount of loss was further expanded, and the loss area reached nearly 50%.

Related policies

In June this year, the Ministry of ecology and environment launched the implementation of hierarchical management of environmental performance of carbon black industry. In the coming heating season, it will change the situation that the previous carbon black enterprises have different standards for environmental protection management and local governments have tight or loose environmental protection law enforcement. Carbon black believes that through the hierarchical management of environmental performance, enterprises that do well can benefit, so as to realize the protection of the advanced and eliminate the backward, and really promote the high-quality development of the industry.

Continue to control carbon black production in the second half of the year

According to the statistical data, the growth rate of the comprehensive tire production was close to two-digit decline, with a decrease rate of 9, In this case, the output of carbon black should be controlled, reasonable inventory should be maintained, supply and demand should be balanced, reasonable market price should be maintained, and losses of enterprises should be controlled. From the 8% drop in carbon black output in the first half of the year, it is still necessary to continue to control the output in the second half of the year to achieve reasonable supply and maintain sustainable development of enterprises.

Import and export

Carbon black export volume and price fall

According to the statistics of the State Customs, in the first half of 2020, the export volume of carbon black was 298000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.26%, the export amount was 250 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 37.83%, the export volume and export amount fell sharply at the same time, the average export price was 842 US dollars / ton, the average export price in the same period last year was 1054 US dollars, the average price decreased by 20.11%.

In the first half of the year, the main export countries were Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, but the export volume and export value were all declining. Only the carbon black exported to South Korea showed both volume and price rise, and the export volume growth rate was relatively large.

Import carbon black volume and price rise

According to the statistics of the State Customs, in the first half of the year, the import of carbon black was 39800 tons, an increase of 11.33% over the same period of last year. The import amount was 108 million US dollars, an increase of 4.22% over the same period of last year. The average import unit price was 2901 tons in the same period last year, and the import unit price was 6.38% lower than that of the same period It can be seen that most of the imported carbon black is mainly high-end special carbon black, which can basically rule out the possibility of ordinary rubber carbon black. The situation of both the quantity and price of imported carbon black shows that the epidemic situation in China is basically under control, and the production and operation of enterprises have returned to normal level.

The main importing countries are South Korea, Japan and the United States. The import volume and import amount show a growth trend, while the import volume increases significantly in Italy and the Netherlands.

Aftermarket forecast: from September to October, the coal tar market will meet a wave of rising process, which will put pressure on the cost of carbon black, or will drive the carbon black market to rise.

Price trend

According to business agency data monitoring, plasticizer DOP prices rose this week. As of September 27, the DOP price was 7266.67 yuan / ton, which was slightly higher than that of last weekend (September 20) of 7250.00 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.23%. DOP slowly recovered.

Upstream market of industrial chain

 
As can be seen from the phthalic anhydride trend chart, this week DOP raw material phthalic anhydride prices rose, phthalic anhydride market volatility rose, the overall phthalic anhydride market rose momentum.

As can be seen from the octanol price trend chart, the octanol market is temporarily stable this week, the DOP cost is temporarily stable, and the upward momentum of DOP is weakened, and the downward pressure is increasing.

Downstream market of industrial chain

As can be seen from the PVC price trend chart, the PVC price rose slightly this week, the PVC market picked up by 0.11%, the PVC market recovered, and the overall PVC market was stronger, which was good for the plasticizer DOP market.

Market review and future expectation

DOP data analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that this week DOP raw material methanol price temporarily stable, phthalic anhydride price shock rise, good for DOP market; downstream PVC market rose slightly, DOP demand slightly recovered, DOP rising momentum slowly strengthened, plasticizer Market temporarily stable. Overall, DOP raw material prices rose slightly, the downstream market remained stable, while the future DOP market was somewhat favorable, but the good was limited. It is expected that DOP market will be strong and stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the big data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on September 17 was 4816.67 yuan / ton, up 0.66% compared with the beginning of the week, 0.66% on a month on month basis, 9.35% lower than the beginning of the year, and 10.19% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Due to the rise of raw material yellow phosphorus this week, the market of phosphoric acid rose steadily. In September, the yellow phosphorus market recovered, the supply was slightly tight, and the price rose steadily, breaking the calm of phosphoric acid Market for more than a month and opening up the upward channel. Phosphoric acid enterprises then actively adjusted to 50-100 yuan fluctuations, some enterprises up to 300 yuan, but the market as a whole remains stable and wait-and-see attitude. At present, however, the demand side is slightly improved. Near the holiday, logistics may be limited, and the downstream stock is more than before. The wet process phosphoric acid shipment is better, but the demand is not as expected. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market is not high. The small recovery of yellow phosphorus is difficult to drive the market higher. Most phosphoric acid enterprises are calm and wait-and-see, and the market is glued in the short term, or will rise slightly with the cost.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of September 17, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 4800 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was 4450-5300 yuan / ton, the price was rising, the price in Guangxi was about 4750 yuan / ton, the transaction was stable; the quotation in Yunnan was about 4800 yuan / ton, the price was up; in Beijing, the price was about 4700 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Hubei, the price was 4800-4850 yuan The price of Tianjin is about 5500 yuan / ton, which is stable for the time being; the price of Jiangsu is about 4450-4500 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation. Prices around the country remained stable and saw a slight rise in some areas.

Regional product specification date price (yuan / ton)

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in East China

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Southwest China

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Central China

On September 17, the phosphoric acid industrial chain index was 87.54, up 0.15 points compared with yesterday, 17.61% lower than 106.25 points (2012-03-22), and 12.81% higher than 77.60 points, the lowest point on July 2, 2019. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The market price of yellow phosphorus in the upper reaches has increased steadily. Downstream gradually began to prepare goods before the festival, orders increased moderately, the market trading situation was fair, and the spot price of yellow phosphorus market was slightly tense. The yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan Province have slightly improved, and the market supply is relatively stable. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will incline upward in the short term.

At present, the market of phosphate rock is always weak, and there are not many new orders in the market. The coming double sections may inject a rising momentum into the market. Under the downstream periodic replenishment, the supply and demand of phosphate rock will be in a positive cycle. The downstream pre holiday stock has gradually started. With the increase of demand, it is expected that the new order of phosphate ore will be closed to the high-end.

For sulfuric acid, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong was temporarily stable on September 16, which was in line with the quotation on September 14. Although the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently and the cost support is good, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general and the sulfuric acid supply is normal. Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly, with the quotation of 390 yuan / ton.

The price of ammonium phosphate fell by 77%. The market of diammonium phosphate improved and the price continued to rise, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 60%. In August, the raw material purchase of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises was limited, and the supply of monoammonium phosphate was sufficient, so the market trend was weak. In August, the international demand for diammonium phosphate was good, the supply was tight, and the price rose. It is expected that monoammonium will run smoothly in September. The trend of diammonium may continue to rise.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that the demand is slightly improved at present, and the logistics may be limited near the holiday, and the downstream stock is more than before, but the overall market enthusiasm is not high, and phosphoric acid is expected to rise slightly with the cost.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of activated carbon was 10800 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 10733 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with the price falling by 0.62%.

The price of activated carbon in China has dropped. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / T; the domestic activated carbon market has not changed much, and the quotation is stable and small. Traders are flexible, terminal demand has not changed significantly, factories still purchase on demand to meet normal production, the overall trading atmosphere is flat.

The cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell and charcoal as the main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon was supported, and the demand turned better; the cost support of coal based carbon raw materials was weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable, and the environmental protection policy boosts the activated carbon market.

Forecast: the overall market of activated carbon market is mainly stable, and some offers are slightly down. It is expected that the activated carbon market will be mainly shaken in the short term.

According to a report from Russia’s sipimp-icpp website, production of 1.10 million tons of polypropylene was launched in September 2020, according to a report from Russia’s sipimp-icpp.

From January to July 2020, the polypropylene production of Sibur Tobolsk was 260000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9%; zapsibneftekhim, also located in toborsk, had a production of 241700 tons in the first seven months of 2020.

Omsk polyom produced 94000 tons of polypropylene in January July, down 13%. Nizhnekamskneftekhim produced 129000 tons, a slight increase over last year.

The output of tomskneftekhim was 90000 tons, a slight increase over the same period. Ufaorgsintez’s polypropylene production reached 76200 tons, a decrease of 3%.

Neftekhimiya of kapotnya produced 87900 tons of polypropylene in the first seven months of 2020, an increase of 6% over the same period last year. Stavrolen (a subsidiary of Lukoil) produced 68800 tons of polypropylene during this period, a slight increase over last year.

According to the data of the business club, in August, the domestic adipic acid market was stagnant, the price fluctuation was not big, and the prices in some regions were slightly lower. According to the data monitored by the business agency, adipic acid in East China decreased slightly, by only 0.91%. The market demand was sluggish, the market supply pressure was not reduced, and most dealers reported low profits to ship goods. Market people still looked down on the future market, and the dealers were mainly light on inventory operation. As of the end of the month, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the current adipic acid market quotation range was 6500-6700 yuan / ton.

In terms of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained at a high level this month, about 80% or more. The market supply was relatively sufficient, and the manufacturers’ inventory pressure was large. Dealers mainly take goods normally. In August, the adipic acid industry is in a relatively low season. Some dealers purchase according to the order and operate with light inventory. Generally speaking, the pressure of enterprise inventory and market inventory is relatively large.

In terms of cost, the upstream crude oil price remained at a periodic high level, and the sharp rise of pure benzene since the middle and late July (up to more than 10%) has ended. Since August, the price of pure benzene has fallen periodically, which has insufficient support for the downstream adipic acid (as shown in the figure below). At present, the main contradiction in the market is that the downstream demand has not fundamentally improved, and adipic acid is squeezed from both upstream and downstream, resulting in the gradual decline of enterprise profits.

Market trend of pure benzene

From the perspective of terminal demand, downstream demand is still weak. As the production and consumption of domestic chemical industry is still in the recovery period, the growth of output and consumption is not obvious, so it is still in the off-season level. The operating rate of downstream factories has not been significantly improved, and the overall consumption level of plastic products has not changed much, which is difficult to boost the market of upstream raw materials. In addition, the rigid consumption of polyurethane in the downstream is stable. Although the state promotes new infrastructure investment, the real estate sector has not benefited much. Affected by the real estate development rate, the insulation material industry has not improved significantly. In addition, although the downstream products such as PA66 have increased this month, the increase is not obvious, and the price is still hovering at a low level for a long time. According to the monitoring of business agency, the monthly increase of PA66 is 2.13% (as shown in the figure below). As a result, adipic acid demand is difficult to fundamentally change, inventory is difficult to digest, manufacturers have a lot of pressure, dealers generally follow the market and purchase on demand. In addition, in addition to the weak domestic demand, external demand has also worsened. Especially affected by the overseas epidemic, the external demand has decreased, and the export pressure of adipic acid has continued to increase. It is not ruled out that the inventory will continue to rise in the future.

PA66 market trend chart

In the later stage, it seems that adipic acid is trapped in the supply and Demand Dilemma in the short and medium term, and it is still difficult to make a breakthrough. The upstream lacks favorable support, the supply side is loose, and the market price is squeezed by cheap goods. The downstream industry is also affected by weak domestic demand and shrinking foreign demand orders caused by severe overseas epidemic situation. It is expected that adipic acid will maintain a weak market in the medium and short term.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1221.5 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 1235 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.11% and a year-on-year increase of 0.83%. The commodity index of light soda ash on August 27 was 76.41, up 1.71 points compared with yesterday, 35.17% lower than 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 21.00% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price trend of local refining petroleum coke is fair, mainly due to the shortage of petroleum coke resources. The recent rise of petroleum coke is good, the market trading atmosphere is better, and the current inventory remains low. Low sulfur coke resources are scarce, the price is stable and rising, the price of medium and high sulfur coke prebaked anode is stable, and the resource of medium and high sulfur coke is limited, and the market price is rising.

Upstream: in the near future, the oil price may continue to consolidate at a high level. On the one hand, under the influence of the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, the shutdown of oil plants will reduce the impact, and on the other hand, it will be a good support for the decline of inventory for several weeks. However, in the medium term, the oil price does not have a fundamental basis for a substantial upward trend. In addition, under the OPEC + production reduction agreement, the scale of production reduction will gradually decrease and the supply side will be medium and long In the future, there are certain risks; more importantly, there are still great risks in the epidemic situation in Europe, America and Asia, and the pace of demand recovery may be affected by the epidemic situation for a long time. Therefore, it is difficult to make a substantial breakthrough in oil prices in the medium and long term.

Downstream: the overall trend of domestic float glass market is stable and slightly upward, with slight differences in different regions. In the Shahe area of North China, manufacturers have no pressure on inventory, and the willingness of manufacturers to support prices is relatively strong. The market turnover in East China is good and stable. The quotation of some manufacturers has been increased by 0.2-0.3 yuan / m2, while other manufacturers are mainly stable. The overall trend of the spot glass market in South China was general, and some manufacturers’ quotations rose slightly, about 0.3 yuan / m2, to boost market confidence. The transaction price in Central China is flexible. The market transaction prices in southwest, northwest and Northeast China are mainly stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 6 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list in the 33rd week of 2020 (8.17-8.21), with coke (3.01%), dimethyl ether (2.38%) and WTI crude oil (1.93%). There were 7 kinds of commodities falling month on month, and the top three products were liquefied natural gas (- 2.56%), MTBE (- 1.34%) and diesel (- 0.58%). This week, the average rise or fall was 0.22%.

3、 Future forecast

The price of petroleum coke in the market of refining petroleum coke by analysts of business agency rose due to the shortage of resources, and the trading atmosphere was good. It is understood that Sinopec still has a plan for shutdown and maintenance. At that time, the production of Petroleum Coke will be small, and the transaction situation may still be in a good condition. With the rise of raw material price, the profits of carbon enterprises have shrunk. However, due to the demand from downstream, carbon enterprises still keep good shipment. Overall, it is expected that the short-term petroleum coke market will remain stable and good, with the specific demand of downstream market.