According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 30th to July 4th, the price of MTBE first rose from 5097 yuan/ton and then fell to 5132 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.69% during the period, a month on month increase of 2.14%, and a year-on-year decrease of 21.79%. The domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations, which are consolidated with changes in the crude oil market.

In terms of cost and crude oil, the rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the suspension of Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and concerns about geopolitical instability in the market. Adding to this, the traditional peak consumption season in the United States is still ongoing, providing support for oil prices. As of July 3rd, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the September contract was $68.80 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, as summer approaches and businesses travel more, there is still some positive support for gasoline terminal demand. The MTBE demand side is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: After the construction of Huayi Chemical Plant, the resource supply will further increase. Maoming Shihua has plans to start construction, while observing the production time of some new plants such as Kaiyi New Materials. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on July 3rd, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by 0.86 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at 659.4-661.4 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $0.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $858.49-858.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $9.98/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $691-691.36/ton (195.11-195.21 cents/gallon).
Future forecast: Currently, raw material prices are operating at a high level, and cost pressure remains significant. After the construction of Huayi Chemical Plant, the supply of resources has further increased. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market situation may weaken and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the price of isooctanol was 7550 yuan/ton, which has stabilized compared to the price of 7550 yuan/ton on June 1st. In June, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated, with many isooctanol enterprises undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the operating rate of isooctanol equipment, a reduction in isooctanol production, and a decrease in isooctanol supply; Downstream plasticizer companies have seen a decrease in production, leading to a decrease in demand for isooctanol and a double drop in supply and demand. As a result, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and stabilized.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and consolidate
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the DOP price was 8259.17 yuan/ton, fluctuating and consolidating compared to the June 1st DOP price of 8250.83 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.10%. In June, DOP production decreased, and the operating rate of the plasticizer industry dropped below 60%. DOP prices remained stable at a high level, resulting in a decrease in plasticizer production. The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and stabilized, while phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell. The cost support for plasticizers decreased, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and stabilized.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol product, in terms of demand, the equipment operation of plasticizer enterprises has decreased, the production of plasticizers has decreased, the demand for isooctanol is weak, and the support for isooctanol has weakened; In terms of supply, the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises has decreased to about 80%, resulting in a decrease in production and supply of isooctanol. In the future, with reduced supply and weak demand, the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and consolidate.

The asphalt market in Shandong started to rise and then fell. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of Jingbo Heavy Duty Asphalt # 70 in Shandong Province was 3675 yuan/ton on June 23, and the ex factory price in Shandong Province was 3670 yuan/ton on June 27. The mid week market price rose to 3760 yuan/ton.

The international geopolitical situation had a significant impact during the week, with crude oil fluctuating rapidly. The cost of asphalt market was greatly affected, and the asphalt market also followed the fluctuations of crude oil. In terms of demand, compared to the same period in previous years, prices are at a low level, and overall demand is slightly flat. The purchasing enthusiasm of middle and downstream users is average. With the arrival of the southern rainy season, the market is facing seasonal downward pressure.
From the perspective of Business Society, the international situation is unstable, and we will continue to pay attention to the impact of changes in crude oil costs on the asphalt market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall trend of the domestic PTA spot market in June showed a fluctuating upward trend. As of June 29th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 5084 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, PTA maintenance units were successively restarted, and the supply continued to increase. However, crude oil remained strong, and PTA slightly fell. In the middle of the month, crude oil prices rose significantly, boosting PTA prices. In the latter half of the year, crude oil experienced a sharp decline, and the PTA market followed suit.

Looking at the future, in terms of supply, the current industry operating rate is around 78%, and there are plans to restart in the future, which will increase supply.
The crude oil market has experienced significant fluctuations in oil prices due to the situation in the Middle East. The current geopolitical situation has significantly eased, and market concerns have been alleviated. Therefore, support for oil prices has weakened, but there are still many uncertainties. As of June 26th, the settlement price of international crude oil futures for WTI crude oil futures in the United States in August was $65.24 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in August was $67.73 per barrel.
The downstream polyester industry is experiencing a decline in load, and some short fiber factories plan to reduce production and undergo maintenance after July. It is expected that the industry’s supply will significantly decline. Terminal textiles have entered the off-season of consumption, with insufficient order follow-up. In addition, recent fluctuations in raw material prices have led to relatively cautious procurement, maintaining a focus on essential needs procurement.
Business analysts believe that the market is still concerned about the fragility of the geopolitical situation, insufficient cost support, and weak supply and demand fundamentals under the traditional consumption off-season. Therefore, the PTA market will mainly consolidate weakly in July.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in June, the aniline market first rose and then stabilized, with the mainstream domestic price reaching 7700-7900 yuan/ton as of the 20th. Recently, the market has been affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with crude oil soaring and pure benzene on the production raw material side experiencing a wide increase. Under the linkage of prices, the price of aniline has risen. After the rise, downstream demand entered the market, and aniline prices stabilized.

On the cost side: International oil prices have strengthened due to macroeconomic favorable conditions and geopolitical deterioration, with crude oil prices fluctuating widely. Pure benzene production has rebounded, and the supply is relatively wide. The pure benzene market has followed the trend of crude oil prices to rise widely and then fluctuated slightly.
Market forecast: In the short term, the raw material pure benzene will maintain a high volatility trend, while aniline will move smoothly with little inventory pressure. It is expected that aniline will maintain a high volatility trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 9th to 13th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2331 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.39% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.12%. The domestic methanol market is mainly strong, with production enterprises and port quotations increasing to varying degrees.

As of the close on June 12th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2295 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2307 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2280 yuan/ton. It closed at 2290 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, or 0.44%. The trading volume is 548300 lots, the open position is 809827, and the daily increase is -17645.
On the cost side, the strong supply and weak demand in the coal market continue to weaken the cost support for methanol, and the price decline still exerts pressure on methanol prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, formaldehyde: Formaldehyde plants are mostly maintained steadily with abundant supply, and downstream customers receive goods according to their own needs. The market’s buying and selling sentiment is flat, and the formaldehyde market mostly maintains shipment according to orders, with limited price fluctuations. Dimethyl ether: The production of dimethyl ether enterprises is relatively low, and most enterprises mainly sell inventory. Downstream demand is severely constrained, and the market supply and demand are weak. Most downstream products have little fluctuation in methanol demand, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the recovery of equipment exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of June 12th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $321.50-322.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 79.00-80.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 275.50-276.50 euros/ton.
Future forecast, currently the main focus is on destocking. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will experience fluctuations and consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of pure benzene first rose and then fell this week. On Tuesday, the price of pure benzene was 5795.33 yuan/ton, and on Friday, it was 5802 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.12% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: This week, the market price of pure benzene first rose and then fell, with a slight decrease overall. The trading atmosphere on the exchange is still mainly focused on filling short positions. The shift in focus of downstream styrene spot negotiations has had a certain impact on the pure benzene market. The demand for purchasing gas is average, and the price of local refineries in Shandong has been lowered to stimulate short supply and purchase of goods at low prices. The overall market is currently in a stalemate.
This week, Sinopec lowered its price by 100 yuan/ton to 5850 yuan/ton.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On June 5th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.37 per barrel, an increase of $0.52 or 0.8%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August was $65.34 per barrel, an increase of $0.48 or 0.7%.
Pure benzene trading: On June 5th, FOB Korea fell by 3 to 702 US dollars/ton, CFR China fell by 2 to 720 US dollars/ton, FOB Rotterdam stabilized at 672 US dollars/ton, and FOB USG stabilized at 248 US cents/gallon.
Overall forecast: In the short term, the pure benzene market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation, with a wait-and-see attitude towards cost and demand news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been running weakly this month, with an average market price of 1290 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1275 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has dropped by 1.19%, a year-on-year decrease of 46.34%. On May 28th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 84.69, a decrease of 0.03 points from yesterday, setting a new historical low for the cycle, and a decrease of 64.09% from the highest point of 235.84 points on November 10, 2021. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1300-1450 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1400-1600 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in May. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1408 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1386 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.56% compared to the same period last year, which was 35.83%.
Business analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, with the overall weak performance of upstream raw material soda ash in March. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this month (5.1-5.30), with an average market price of 261240 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 251610 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 3.89%.

The sudden introduction of unexpected tariff policies by the United States has led to a significant drop in tin prices. Subsequently, in April, the Bisie mining area in the Democratic Republic of Congo announced the resumption of production, further exacerbating the downward trend in tin prices.
On the supply side, the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar continues to decrease, and the tight supply situation at the upstream mining end has not yet been alleviated. Although the artificial intelligence boom once drove the growth of the downstream semiconductor industry, this growth trend has gradually slowed down in recent times. At present, the impact of US tariff policies on market prices is gradually weakening. However, international macro policies may quickly adjust and change in the future. Against this backdrop, tin prices, which have seen significant increases in the previous period, may exhibit a wide range of fluctuations.
On the consumer side, after the end of the May Day holiday, some downstream processing enterprises in the industry chain have started to resume work and production, and the demand for low-priced inventory replenishment in the market has been released to a certain extent. However, transactions for high priced goods still appear relatively quiet. At the end of the month, tin prices plummeted, and the trading activity in the spot market significantly increased. After experiencing a sharp decline in tin prices, some companies seized the opportunity to launch procurement actions. With the further decline in prices, the purchasing willingness of downstream and end enterprises has significantly increased, and they have made essential purchases according to actual needs and appropriately replenished inventory.
Overall, there are still hidden concerns on the demand side, that is, in the context of global trade conflicts, the global economic growth rate is facing the risk of decline, which brings great uncertainty to the demand for tin. Although the resumption of production in the mining sector and trade conflicts between major countries have had a negative impact on tin prices, the strong performance of the current actual demand side and the shortage of tin ore supply can still provide some support for tin prices.

The domestic fluorite price trend continued to decline in May, with an average price of 3493.75 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 5.73% from the beginning price of 3706.25 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 8.21%.

Supply side: Normal operation, sufficient spot supply of fluorite
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. However, as the temperature rises, northern enterprises gradually start operating, and the supply of fluorite enterprises in the field has increased. The lack of active procurement has led to sufficient spot goods in the field, and fluorite inventory in the field has increased. The fluorite market continued to decline in May.
Demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid has declined, and the refrigerant market is still acceptable
In May, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid declined, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 11200-11700 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. They are not actively purchasing raw fluorite, and downstream merchants have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Both buyers and sellers have weak expectations for the future market due to poor demand digestion. In June, the guidance price of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was once again lowered, and the downward trend of fluorite prices is difficult to change due to this news.
The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal industry is still promising, and the terminal policy of the refrigerant industry is being strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, but the industry inventory is transmitting in a positive and orderly manner. Due to high prices, the enthusiasm for stocking up in the terminal industry is low, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market is average, while the fluorite market continues to decline.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. However, in some areas, the lack of active fluorite procurement has led to an increase in inventory. In addition, downstream resistance to high prices is severe, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises mainly purchase on demand, with no actual increase in demand. In addition, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is low. Overall, the fluorite market price is prone to decline but difficult to rise in the short term.