Price Trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone rose narrowly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers was 8 200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8 300 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price rose by 1.22% in the week and fell by 30.83% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the cyclohexanone market is running steadily upward. Sinopec’s pure benzene listing has been raised again by 100 yuan/ton to 5350 yuan/ton, with good cost support. Within a week, chemical fibers can still be purchased on the market. Hengyi, Shenyuan and other factories have increased the demand for cyclohexanone. Other factories have made up a small number of vacancies, and chemical fibers orders in cyclohexanone factories are still acceptable. Solvent market demand is general, and most of them are purchased on demand. Luxi Cyclohexanone has not been exported from stock for the time being, so the supply of Cyclohexanone is on the tight side. At present, the main price of cyclohexanone is 8800-8900 yuan per ton cash, up 400 yuan per ton from last Thursday. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong market is in the range of 8900-9000 yuan/ton cash delivery, the mainstream negotiation in East China market is in the range of 9100-9300 yuan/ton cash delivery, and the mainstream negotiation in South China market is in the range of 9400-9600 yuan/ton cash delivery.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, this week pure benzene prices soared and fell. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of East China Port continued to drop to about 170,000 tons. On the external market, the supply of the United States continues to be tight, and the operators believe that the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea will be open for a long time. The decline of domestic stock and the high level of external market jointly led to the increase of domestic pure benzene quotation to 5600 yuan/ton, which is almost the same as FOB Korea price. However, the domestic downstream has little profit except styrene, strong resistance to high-priced pure benzene, and high selling price is difficult to respond to. Caprolactam: This week, the domestic caprolactam liquid spot market is basically stable. In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene continued to rise, and the price of East China market once rose to 5500 yuan per ton, but the follow-up was weak, and the price had been revised back. Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene rose by 100 yuan/ton to 5350 yuan/ton. Cyclohexanone has a good demand in the near future. The ex-factory price has risen to 8700-8900 yuan/ton, and the cost of caprolactam is high. The atmosphere of supply and demand is slightly weak. With the restart of the pre-maintenance equipment, the overall start-up of caprolactam is improved, and the supply is increased.

3. Future Market Forecast

Cyclohexanone factory spot is not much, there is no inventory pressure, Luxi Cyclohexanone has the possibility of shipment in the near future. In the short run, the overall supply may increase steadily; in the long run, the early planned production of cyclohexanone plant in July, rumors have delayed the start-up time, and the possibility of new release capacity of cyclohexanone in the late part of the month is small. Cost side has some support, demand side, chemical fiber market gap still exists, the high rise is weak, and the profit margin is scarce, next week or slightly reduced. Cyclohexanone analysts at business associations expect high consolidation in the cyclohexanone market next week.

Butadiene market soared (7.8-7.12).

1.Price trend

Butadiene market in China rose this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 8423 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8490 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a 0.79% increase in the week and a 26.75% decrease over the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Spot export of high-grade goods in Northeast China has decreased significantly in the cycle. Some downstream goods in North China just need to bring some support to the spot market. A small number of high-grade goods in Northeast China have brought a significant boost to the spot market in North China during the week. However, with the rising market, some private enterprises in Shandong and Jiutai in Inner Mongolia and Silbang in Jiangsu are actively exporting goods, which brings some supplements to the supply side. In addition, the downstream rubber market is in a downturn, the market supply and demand fundamentals are good and limited, and the high price turnover is not good. Although all export nodes of Huajin in North China have reached a high turnover level in the past week, which has boosted the offer of middlemen to keep up with the increase, the news of high-price transaction is seldom heard under the drag of low inquiry intention downstream.

Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week, domestic styrene-butadiene rubber dry rubber factory price stability, styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 unit price 10000-10100 yuan/ton; oil-filled styrene-butadiene 1712 unit price 9050-9250 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu 1502E has been narrowly adjusted. The price of Qilu 1502E is near 10150 yuan/ton, which is 50 yuan/ton lower than that of last period. The price of Qilu 1712 is 9200 yuan/ton, which is 50-100 yuan/ton lower than that of last period. Cis-butadiene rubber, this week, domestic high cis-butadiene mainstream ex-factory price stabilized in the range of 10,320-10,500 yuan/ton; domestic cis-butadiene mainstream offer price adjusted to the range of 10,300-10,800 yuan/ton. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low finishing, dry rubber road to small finishing.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, there is no pressure on domestic manufacturers’inventory, Sinopec’s internal supply is tight, and the export volume of Northeast supply is shrinking. On the negative side, synthetic rubber market is weak, some manufacturers’cost pressure, load drop, Liaoyang Petrochemical and Puyang Bluestar plant have restart expectations, spot supply in the North has incremental expectations, downstream inquiries for high-priced sources are limited. The shrinkage of high-grade goods in Northeast China and the downstream just need to be boosted. The high transaction price of a small amount of goods in the market boosted the spot market in North China. In the next cycle, on the one hand, with the restart of Liaoyang Petrochemical, Puyang Blue Star plant, and the export of Jiutai goods in Inner Mongolia, there is no lack of incremental expectation of spot supply in the market, and the lower reaches of the current high-price inquiries are limited, poor turnover brings drag on the high-level market, while the performance of rubber market is low, dragged by this drag, business associations succeeded. Olefin analysts expect that with the increase of supply next week, the high-end market will not lack weakening expectations, and the market as a whole will mainly fall back, but the supplier’s inventory is low, and the supply price may be relatively strong. We suggest that we pay attention to the guidance of market turnover.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market fell narrowly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2,160 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, it was 2134 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 1.20%, 25.30% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic methanol market is mainly volatile this week, with slight adjustment in terms of local supply and demand, which is limited to 50 yuan/ton. Among them, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and other places rose 20-30 yuan/ton; Ports rose and fell steadily, Jiangsu was stable, Zhejiang and other places slightly declined. Nanjing Chengzhi Phase II newly built 600,000 tons methanol to olefin unit was commissioned at the end of June, and the load of the unit is not high at present. Social stocks of ports in eastern and southern China continued to rise. As of Wednesday, total stocks in the two ports totaled 841,900 tons, up 42,500 tons annually.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: This week formaldehyde Market narrow finishing operation. Affected by the adjustment of methanol price in some areas, some formaldehyde enterprises have raised their offer, others have temporarily stabilized their offer, the market has been kept at a low level, the overall shipment is not smooth, and the inventory of enterprises is still under control, but there is still some pressure. The downstream market demand is weak, and the overall turnover is general. Longzhong Information believes that the current upstream market volatility, the formaldehyde market has not yet affected, weak demand, formaldehyde market is expected to remain weak next week, consolidation and operation, there are sporadic adjustments. Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market has been regionalized this week. The start-up of vinyl acetate production enterprises in the lower reaches of Northwest China has been reduced, which has resulted in the continuous accumulation of the stock of mainstream acetic acid production enterprises in the region. The local transportation costs are higher, the vehicles are limited, and the outflow of goods from northwest China is less, which aggravates the situation of excess supply in the market. The production enterprises are forced to gradually lower their quotations. Dimethyl ether: This week, dimethyl ether shows a trend of regionalization, with different declines and rises.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives: On the positive side, the risk of war from Iran to China has increased, and the cost of shipping has increased; the MTO plant in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia is currently in full capacity production, and methanol has been purchased; the MTO trial production in Chengzhi, Nanjing, at the end of June; and the MTO in Luxi, Shandong, is expected to test run in July. On the negative side, Shenhua Yulin MTO plant is expected to be overhauled in July for 20 days; new methanol plant in China is being constructed in an orderly way, including Yankuang Yulin 700,000 tons planned to be put into operation in October; Inner Mongolia Rongxin is expected to put into operation in September; affected by safety, environmental protection inspection and other factors, local market terminal enterprises stop, affecting methanol consumption; China’s methanol imports will remain near 800,000 tons in January. At present, the fundamentals of methanol supply and demand are still weak, especially the high import volume of ports and abundant domestic supply, which increase the pressure on the market; demand is difficult to improve in a short time; methanol analysts of business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will continue to weaken the probability of shocks.

Price trends:

On July 12, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 55.56, up 0.19 points from yesterday, down 45.53% from the peak of 102.01 points in the cycle (2014-01-09), and up 24.69% from the low of 44.56 points on August 31, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2013-12-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: This week, due to the double advantages of the rise in the external market of pure benzene and the increase in the listing price of pure benzene in Sinopec, the hydrobenzene market has been rising positively. As of Friday, the hydrobenzene quotation in Shandong rose to 5250-5350 yuan/ton, with the market increasing by about 200-300 yuan/ton. In recent years, although the environmental production restriction has not been relaxed, coke prices have recently fallen, coking enterprises’profits are still acceptable, the start-up level is relatively stable, and the supply of crude benzene in the upstream has remained stable. Recently, the external market of pure benzene has been rising strongly. Sinopec has raised the listed price of pure benzene several times, but the price gap between the internal and external market is still large. Korea-US arbitrage is still in existence. Domestic pure benzene market continues to digest inventory, and the market has a bullish expectation for the future market. Supply side: Recently, the start-up rate of hydrobenzene enterprises has gradually increased, and Baofeng and Angang plants in Ningxia have started up one after another. The overall supply is stable.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: Oil prices showed a slight rebound after falling this week. Overall, Brent fell nearly 2% compared with last week, and WTI fell more than 4%. Oil prices fell early in the week on fears of a slowdown. On Wednesday, news of three consecutive weeks of decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and a nine-month extension of OPEC’s cut-off agreement boosted oil prices. Oil prices rose twice this week. After the second increase, downstream conflicting sentiment was strong and pure benzene speculation eased. Pure benzene: Pure benzene market enthusiasm is high. Monday was the beginning of the month, as the contract delivery task was completed at the end of June, the enthusiasm for market surge eased. On Tuesday, news began that South Korea exported only 20,000 tons of pure benzene to China in June, and the stock of East China Port declined, boosting the market, the market sentiment was strong. Crude Benzene: Since June, the domestic crude benzene market has continued to rise, mainly boosted by the sharp rise in the external market of pure benzene. Sinopec has raised its listing price several times, up to 5250 yuan/ton on the 12th day. In addition, the inventory of pure benzene ports has continued to decline in recent years. Market participants are still bullish on the future market of pure benzene. Market demand: In recent years, the starting rate of hydrobenzene enterprises is gradually rising, many decoration projects are started, or some enterprises have restart plans, the demand for crude benzene will increase, boosting the crude benzene market. In terms of market supply, coking enterprises have started construction more steadily in the near future, with stable supply, high initiative and stable supply.

3. Trend forecast:

Recent positive factors have been released centrally. Most of the pure benzene market is optimistic. Inventories in East China continue to decline. Hydrobenzene enterprises have started construction one after another. It is expected that hydrobenzene still has room to rise, with an increase of about 50 yuan per ton.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the average price of n-butanol as of July 5 was 6116.67 yuan/ton (including taxes), up 1.10% compared with July 1. At present, the mainstream domestic price of n-butanol is about 6100-6200 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: The market price of n-butanol is rising steadily and moderately this week. Macro-economic benefits have greatly boosted the market. The cost support of n-butanol is strong. The low-price supply has basically disappeared. Some manufacturers may have parking plans this month.

Industry chain: The price of propylene in upstream products has been raised substantially, and the supply and demand of downstream products have been balanced and replenished on demand.

3. Future Market Forecast

Prediction: Mainstream price of n-butanol is stable in the near future.

Price Trend

According to a large number of data monitored by business associations, the price of trichloromethane in China continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong was about 2850 yuan/ton, and it rose to about 2970 yuan/ton at the weekend, with an increase of 4.21% in the week.

II. Cause Analysis

Product Reasons: This week, due to the strong demand for downstream refrigerants and the short-term impact of trichloromethane supply, the domestic trichloromethane market continued to rise, the industry has fewer spot supply, low inventory. At present, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong is about 2970 yuan/ton; that in Jiangsu is about 4000 yuan/ton; and that in Jiangxi is about 3650 yuan/ton. In terms of start-up, Jinling chemical plant started normal; Dongying Jinmao overhaul; Luxi chemical plant started 60%; Jiangsu science and technology plant started normal; Jiangxi science and technology plant normal operation, etc.

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the domestic methanol market showed a weak performance this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 2180 yuan/ton, which fell by 0.27% in the weekend, 18.31% compared with the same period last year. The liquid chlorine market was stable and soft in the week, and the enterprises reported 200-400 yuan/ton more. On the downstream side, the domestic R22 refrigerant market started this week, and the overall turnover was weak. Now the company quotes 18500-19000 yuan per ton for bulk water.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 25th week (6.24-6.28) of 2019, there were 30 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 3.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were calcium carbide (7.55%), crude benzene (6.50%) and hydrochloric acid (5.26%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrogen peroxide (-7.36%), butanone (-5.93%) and ammonium sulfate (-4.42%).

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Club methane chloride data analysts believe that the current spot supply of trichloromethane is tight, the overall performance of the market is strong, the downstream market just needs to be stable, the price of trichloromethane support is good, follow-up attention should be paid to Jinmao Shandong overhaul situation, the completion of enterprise overhaul will gradually fill the supply-side gap, prices will inevitably fall, anticipated in the near future market volatility adjustment of trichloromethane

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 market was stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products was 5033 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products was 5033 yuan/ton at weekend, which was stable compared with last week.

II. Market Analysis

Product: The domestic market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 has been stable this week. At present, the quotation of the first-class chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shaanxi is 4800-5200 yuan/ton, that of the second-class chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4700-5100 yuan/ton, that of the second-class chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is 5000-5300 yuan/ton, and that of the second-class chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is 4400-4800 yuan/ton.

International crude oil: Iran’s shooting down of U.S. military UAVs has sharply tightened the geographic situation, the release of easing signals from the global central bank, combined with the decline in U.S. crude oil stocks and the expected extension of OPEC production cuts, and the double-soaring international oil prices. WTI56.65 rose $2.89 per barrel and Brent 64.45 rose $2.63 per barrel. SC crude oil futures in China rose 0.5 to 425.7 yuan per barrel in 1908.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the analyst of chlorinated paraffin of business association, from the point of view of demand, the overall trading atmosphere of the current market is general, the domestic market demand for chlorinated paraffin is still acceptable, and the market holds a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will remain stable in the later period.

Price Trend

This week (6.10-6.14) the domestic price of 1_antimony ingot rose by 1.54% with the average price of

On June 14, the Sb Commodity Index was 55.16, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.09% from its peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 17.41% from its low of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: As of Friday, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 36,000 yuan/ton and 99.8% at 37,500 yuan/ton. The price of antimony trioxide remains stable under the drive of antimony ingots, with limited transactions and mainly downstream wait-and-see.

Domestic market: This week, the major domestic antimony ingot manufacturers have increased the price of antimony ingots, the price of antimony ingots rose steadily by 1.54%, as of Friday, 2_high bismuth antimony ingots 37750 yuan/ton, 2_low bismuth antimony ingots 38750 yuan/ton, 1_antimony ingots 39250 yuan/ton, 0_antimony ingots 40250 yuan/ton. Transaction activity decreased, inquiries were less, wait-and-see was the main.

Non-ferrous industry: On Friday, non-agricultural data exceeded expectations, superimposed inflation was mild, Fed interest rate cut was expected to rise, US dollar was low at 96.451, and domestic top-level announced infrastructure financing incentive program. Although external uncertainties increased, confidence in expanding domestic demand remained unchanged, market sentiment was boosted, and basic metals generally recovered from the low level, but Sino-US economic and trade. Relations are still tense. The G20 summit held at the end of June was the key point. The market waited cautiously. Most of the domestic metals rebounded, blocked and fell back.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week, the most sensitive market is the decision of the Federal Reserve Conference on Interest Rate. The market awaits the guidance of the US dollar. When domestic metals enter the June long order delivery period after monthly exchange, the activity of spot futures may be significantly improved. However, the metal items with the risk of squeezing may temporarily subside and return to rationality. If the antimony ingot manufacturers end the bidding situation due to capital pressure, the price of antimony ingot will certainly go down. It is expected that the price of antimony ingot will remain stable in the short term under the support of the bidding price of large factories.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate ex-factory price trend is temporarily stable this week. The weekend average price is 2033.33 yuan/ton, which is flat compared with the early price of 2033.33 yuan/ton, down 7.15% from the same period last year.

2. Market analysis:

Product: This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant start-up is limited and domestic ammonium nitrate plant start-up is less. However, due to the downstream civil explosion industry shut down, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stocks, and the price trend in the field remains weak. By the end of the weekend, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations ranged from 1900 to 2100 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection and the cancellation of gas limitation, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate in the downstream has decreased. In addition, the market price trend of raw material nitric acid and liquid ammonia in the upstream has remained stable, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable.

Industry chain: This week’s domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1,560 yuan/ton by the end of the week, and this week’s price trend is temporarily stable; the price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia is rising slightly, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3,470 yuan/ton by the end of the week, and this week’s price trend is rising by 2.32%. The upstream raw material price trend has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate Temporary stability. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened, the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased, the market for nitric acid is not good, and the price of nitric acid market remains weak.

Industry: Recently, the market of ammonium nitrate is not good. The downstream explosion industry has stopped completely. However, the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material liquid ammonia market price rise, but the downstream demand is poor, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain low volatility in the later period.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, in January 2019, China imported 12.33 million tons of power coal (including bituminous coal and sub-bituminous coal, but not lignite, the same below), an increase of 570,000 tons, an increase of 4.85%, an increase of 8.33 million tons annually, an increase of 208.25%.

In January 2019, China imported 12.85 million tons of lignite, an increase of 2.65 million tons, an increase of 25.98%, and an increase of 10.1 million tons annually, an increase of 367.27%.

In January 2019, China imported 7.37 million tons of coking coal, an increase of 44.1% over the same period last year, and an increase of 4.24 million tons annually, an increase of 135.46%. In addition, in January 2019, China exported 190,000 tons of coking coal, an increase of 23.5% over the same period last year.