1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8460 yuan / ton on January 27, up 140 yuan / ton compared with 8320 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 1.68% during the month and 19.15% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In January, the PVC market fluctuated downward, the price rose sharply in the middle of the month, remained basically stable in the latter ten days, and the overall trend in the month was roughly in the shape of √ by the end of the year. This month, the PVC market was mainly driven by the favorable interest rate cut of the central bank, crude oil and coal. The disk surface was strong, and the equipment in some areas was shut down for maintenance. There was some support at the supply side. The PVC market broke the continuous falling market for more than a month, and the futures price continued to rise above 8800, boosting the offer of the spot market. In the first week after returning from New Year’s day, the disk was strong, PVC opened and rose slightly, superimposing the problems of Zhonggu mining equipment in Inner Mongolia, so as to strengthen the confidence of cargo holders in offering. In the second week, PVC futures rebounded strongly, driving the spot market to actively follow the rise. The enterprise’s offer rose about 100-200 yuan / ton within the week, and the market rose. In the third week, the rise did not stop, and the transaction atmosphere was good. The pre-sale of PVC enterprises before the festival was good. Most of them had completed their tasks and made firm offers. Near the end of the month, the Spring Festival is approaching, the transportation capacity is limited, and the downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode. The demand is reduced. There is basically no market in the market, and the price is mainly sorted out.

By the end of the month, the price of raw calcium carbide had fallen to around 4150-4450 yuan / ton. The quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises was mostly around 8100-8800 yuan / ton. The price of pvc5 calcium carbide delivered in Tianjin was 8600-8650 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou was 8750-8850 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Changzhou was 8650-8800 yuan / ton, Market prices all over the country have risen.

According to the weekly rise and fall from November 1, 2021 to January 23, 2022, it can be seen that the domestic PVC mainly fell during the cycle, with the largest decline of 17.43% in the week of October 25. Since November, the price has fluctuated little, with the range of less than 3%. It is now falling and then rising in January.

region workmanship 1 / 27 (yuan / ton) 12 / 31 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 8650-8850 8300-8500 + 350/+350 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 8750-8900 8400-8650 + 350/+250 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 8550-8700 8150-8400 + 400/+300 Deliver

southwest Calcium carbide method 8600-8800 8350-8500 + 250/+300 Deliver

For the external price, Formosa Plastics announced the PVC quotation in February, which was reduced by 70-100 US dollars / ton, FOB Taiwan was reduced by 70 US dollars / ton, CIF China was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton, CIF India was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton, and CIF Southeast Asia was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton.

International crude oil prices continued to rise on January 26. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $87.35/barrel, up US $1.75 or 2.04%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $88.74/barrel, up US $1.66 or 1.90%. Brent crude oil contract in March rose above $90 for the first time since 2014. The main reason is that the supply tension is expected to continue to rise and boost oil prices, the tension between Russia and Ukraine is escalating, and the output increase of OPEC of the organization of petroleum exporting countries is lower than expected.

In January, the price of ethylene in the external market fluctuated and rose. At the beginning of the month, the average price of ethylene was 1245.25 US dollars / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of ethylene was 1262.00 US dollars / ton, an increase of 1.35%. The current price increased by 0.90% month on month, and the current price increased by 23.73% year-on-year.

On January 26, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4316.67, a decrease of 6.5% compared with January 1 (4616.67). In late January, the market of calcium carbide mainly fluctuated and fell slightly. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide was good, but the increase was small. It was mainly consolidation, the downstream PVC market weakened, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that PVC was first restrained and then raised in January, and rose strongly in the second half of the month. Near the Spring Festival holiday, transportation capacity is limited, downstream demand is reduced, there is little market trading, and the market is in a situation of price without market. It is expected that the PVC market will be stable and small in the short term, mainly consolidation.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of January 26, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8100 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8883 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 783 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.82%.

In early January, after the new year’s Day holiday, the domestic n-propanol market temporarily operated stably. After the n-propanol unit of a large factory in Shandong was put into operation, the tension on the supply side in the field was relieved, the supply in the field increased, and the downstream demand performance was average. From the 7th, the domestic n-propanol market started to decline, and the demand side before the holiday was not boosted well, Suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong Province have successively reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol. As of January 15, the ex factory price of domestic n-propanol is around 7400-8000 yuan / ton, with a cumulative reduction range of 500-700 yuan / ton in half a month.

In late January, the domestic n-propanol market continued to decline. Some suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong continued to reduce the ex factory price of n-propanol by 100-200 yuan / ton. As of January 19, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong was around 7400-7800 yuan / ton, and the quotation including package was around 8700-9000 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, the domestic n-propanol market stopped falling and stabilized, and it was weak. At present, as of the 26th, the ex factory price of domestic n-propanol is around 7400-9500 yuan / ton. The market of n-propanol in Nanjing is running stably for the time being. The ex factory price of n-propanol is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in specific negotiations. There are also differences in each region. It is mainly based on actual negotiation, and we will see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the external market of ethylene fluctuated frequently in January. As of January 26, the reference price of ethylene was 1262 yuan / ton, down 1.35% from January 1 (1245.25 yuan / ton).

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

Approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream demand of domestic n-propanol is cautious and the preparation of goods is basically over. The analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will be stable and run, and the fluctuation of the market before the festival is limited. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of downstream demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of January 25, the average price of domestic power type high-grade lithium iron phosphate was 124000.00 yuan / ton, and the market price of lithium iron phosphate increased slightly by 5.26% compared with the same period last week. The overall market negotiation focus was high, the inventory was low, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere was acceptable.

The price trend of lithium iron phosphate is relatively strong. At present, the mainstream price is 124000 yuan / ton, and the manufacturers are actively shipping. At present, the supply side is tight, the negotiation focus is high, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is OK. The focus of the upstream market is high, and the price rises. The lithium iron phosphate Market has certain support, and the overall market is relatively strong.

On January 24, the chemical index was 1206 points, up 88 points from yesterday, down 13.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 101.67% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that lithium iron phosphate is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners fell slightly this week. The average price of Shandong market on January 23 was 3220.00 yuan / ton, up 1.56% from 3266.25 yuan / ton on January 17.

On January 23, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 250.45, unchanged from yesterday, down 4.48% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 274.42% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the shipment of refineries slowed down, the transaction was general, the supply of some refineries increased, and the price fell slightly.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose this week, and the oil price reached a nearly seven-year high, mainly due to the expectation of tight supply. Previously, the transportation was temporarily interrupted due to the fire of the oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for oil growth in 2022. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron will have a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight, with investors believing that the Fed is not as hawkish as expected, and the oil price continues to rebound. The survey results released on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the eighth consecutive week last week. It is generally expected that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday still point to the decline of crude oil inventories. In addition, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine further aggravates supply concerns, and oil prices are supported.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week; The market price of metal silicon decreased slightly; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of January 23, the price was 21370.00 yuan / ton.

The petroleum coke analyst of business society believes that: the supply of local refineries has increased recently, the shipment is general, the price has dropped slightly, the procurement of downstream terminals before the festival is about to end, and the logistics is about to have a holiday. At present, the price of local petroleum coke is high, and it is expected that the price of petroleum coke may fall slightly in the near future.

Acetic anhydride prices fell this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell this week. As of January 21, the price of acetic anhydride was 9425 yuan / ton, down 2.58% from 9675 yuan / ton on January 14. The actual transaction price of some customers fell below 9000 yuan / ton. Costs fell, traders shipped actively, and acetic anhydride fell.

The price of raw material acetic acid fell

 
As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society, the price of acetic acid fell by 1.01% this week, the price of acetic acid fell this week, the market of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride increased.

Outlook

Analysts of acetic anhydride data of business society believe that the price of acetic acid fell this week, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the market of acetic anhydride fell weakly; During the Spring Festival, acetic anhydride manufacturers and traders had a strong willingness to clean up inventory, while downstream customers had relatively cold purchasing enthusiasm, and the price of acetic anhydride fell. In the future, the demand for acetic anhydride is insufficient, and the price of raw materials falls. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will fluctuate and fall in the future.

Futures market: on January 20, the main pf futures contract closed at 7516, down 0.40% from yesterday’s settlement price, and the settlement price was 7554; The trading volume is 130554 hands; The position was 116171, the position decreased by 750, and the basis was – 31. Domestic polyester staple fiber raw material futures closed mixed today, with PTA down 0.63% and ethylene glycol up 0.39%.

Spot price: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on January 20 was 7485 yuan / ton, up 2.98% from last week and 16.08% year-on-year. East China’s firm offer was around 7250 yuan / ton.

Analysis: in terms of cost, the U.S. stock market fell sharply, IEA reported cooling to the excited crude oil market, and WTI New York crude oil CFD fell 1.00% overnight. Some PTA units are expected to restart, and the new unit is planned to be commissioned. The supply is expected to increase, and the PTA price decreases slightly. In terms of demand, the overall production and sales of the factory declined slightly and the atmosphere weakened.

Forecast: in the short term, geopolitical tensions reappear, global supply is tight, the impact of Omicron variant on demand is weakened, crude oil is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and short fiber cost support is strong. However, the downstream spinning and weaving demand is still expected to be weak, and the upward space of staple fiber is limited. Staple fiber market is short-term or strong in shock.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of flake alkali was consolidated this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 3533.33 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic flake alkali market maintains the consolidation trend.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda this week was stable and small. At the beginning of the week, the average price in Shandong market was 942.5 yuan / ton. On January 17, the average price in Shandong market was about 957.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.59% and a price increase of 98.45% over the same period last year. Recently, caustic soda manufacturers have overhauled, but the overall impact is small. Downstream alumina enterprises mainly purchase on demand because the Spring Festival is approaching. Caustic soda manufacturers intend to raise prices before the Spring Festival, but the driving force is not strong.

Business analysts believe that traders’ enthusiasm for shipping is still good, but due to the low willingness to receive goods in the downstream near the Spring Festival, there is resistance. Generally speaking, the short-term or consolidation operation of flake alkali price depends on the demand of the downstream market.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on January 18 was 8360 yuan / ton, up 1.09% from last Tuesday (11th), 0.48% from the beginning of the month and 20.07% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Looking back on last week, the PVC market was restrained first and then raised. The price continued to rise in the middle and late weeks of the week, breaking the situation of continuous decline for more than a month, bringing a trace of vitality to the deadlocked market. Moreover, the rise has continued to this day, rising by 1.09% in seven days. Recently, the rise of the market is mainly driven by the disk. The rebound of futures prices drives the rise of spot market prices. In addition, there are unexpected parking in some areas, and there is some support at the supply end. At the same time, there is still just need to purchase in the downstream before the Spring Festival, and the market transaction atmosphere is slightly good. Some PVC enterprises said that the orders during the Spring Festival are basically saturated, and the PVC prices stop falling and rising under the support of multiple benefits. At present, the overall supply side of the market is limited, and the Spring Festival is approaching, downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode, the procurement volume has decreased, PVC has entered the routine accumulation stage, the supply and demand side has gradually weakened, and the continuous action force of PVC is insufficient. As of the 18th, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 8000-8700 yuan / ton. Pvc5 electric stone in Tianjin is 8350-8450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 8650-8750 yuan / ton. There is little fluctuation in the market price in various parts of China.

According to the weekly rise and fall from October 25, 2021 to January 16, 2022, it can be seen that the domestic PVC mainly fell in the cycle, with the largest decline of 17.43% in the week of October 25. Since November, the price fluctuation has been small, and the range is within 3%. In the cycle, there are few bullish and many falling, and the market is weak.

For the external price, CFR China maintains US $1330 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia maintains US $1340 / ton, and CFR India maintains US $1550 / ton.

International crude oil prices rose on January 17. On Martin Luther King’s anniversary, the U.S. futures market was closed, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported at US $86.48/barrel, up US $0.42 or 0.5%.

Ethylene, on January 17, the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $948-966 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has risen and the demand is general. On January 17, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1580-1591 / ton, up US $6 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1437-1446 / ton, up US $4 / ton. On January 17, in the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $921-931 / ton, down US $25 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $961-971 / ton, and the international crude oil price rose. Affected by the rising price of upstream crude oil, the ethylene market may mainly rise in the later stage.

For calcium carbide, on January 17, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4566.67, a decrease of 1.08% compared with January 1 (4616.67). In late January, the market of calcium carbide mainly fluctuated and fell slightly. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide supported well, but the increase was small. It was mainly consolidation. The downstream PVC market fell slightly, the market was difficult to improve, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in late January.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw materials is expected to decline, and the market supply is relatively abundant. With the Spring Festival approaching, downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode, the demand is reduced, the PVC fundamentals are gradually weak, and the continuous upward action force is insufficient. It is expected to be mainly adjusted slightly in the short term.

Acetic anhydride prices fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell this week. As of January 17, the price of acetic anhydride was 9550 yuan / ton, down 3.78% from 9925 yuan / ton on January 10. The actual transaction price of some customers fell below 9000 yuan / ton. The cost fell, traders shipped actively, and the acetic anhydride market fell sharply.

The price of raw material acetic acid fell

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society, the price of acetic acid fell by 1.98% this week, the price of acetic acid fell this week, the market of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride increased.

Outlook

Analysts of acetic anhydride data of business society believe that the price of acetic acid fell this week, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the market of acetic anhydride fell weakly; With the Spring Festival approaching, acetic anhydride manufacturers and traders have a strong willingness to clean up inventory, while downstream customers have general purchasing enthusiasm, and the price of acetic anhydride has fallen. In the future, the demand for acetic anhydride is insufficient, and the price of raw materials falls. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of January 14, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 4500.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.65% compared with Monday’s price, 7.14% compared with December 14, and a year-on-year decrease of 44.10% in a three-month cycle.

This week, the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid rose steadily. Recently, the prices of raw materials caustic soda and sulfuric acid have increased slightly, the price of liquid ammonia has stabilized, the price of methanol is low, the cost side has a certain support, the supply of goods is tight, the downstream goods are prepared orderly, and the focus of market negotiation is higher.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, on January 13, the operation of caustic soda was large, stable and small. The mainstream price of 32 caustic soda purchased by Shandong’s main alumina was about 900-950 yuan / ton; The upstream liquid ammonia Market stabilized in Shandong on January 14. The reference price of liquid ammonia on January 13 was 4460.00, an increase of 1.13% compared with January 1 (4410.00); Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose on January 14; For upstream methanol, on January 13, the reference price of methanol was 2402.50, an increase of 1.16% compared with January 1 (2375.00).

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that at present, the impact of cost on the market is limited, and there is a certain support for supply and demand in the market. It is expected that the formic acid market may operate at a high level in the short term, and more attention should be paid to cost changes.