1、 Price trend
On July 17th, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong was referenced at 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan/ton or 11.54% compared to July 1st (reference price of cyclohexanone was 7800 yuan/ton).
In early July (7.1-7.17), the overall market situation of cyclohexanone in Shandong showed a steady upward trend, with the center of gravity of the cyclohexanone market gradually approaching high levels and the low-end prices in the market continuously decreasing. As of July 17th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong is around 8650-8900 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Tightening on the supply side: At the beginning of the month, some domestic cyclohexanone equipment was undergoing centralized maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the circulation of cyclohexanone market supply and a contraction in spot circulation. Some major factories were operating at low loads, and the available inventory in the market continued to decrease. Traders’ reluctance to sell increased, and they actively pushed up prices. The overall tightening of the supply side supports the upward trend of the market.
Rising raw material costs: Upstream pure benzene prices are strengthening synchronously, leading to an increase in production costs. Factories have a strong willingness to raise prices and keep up with the trend, forming support on the cost side.
Downstream demand is gradually recovering: downstream coatings PU、 The procurement of adipic acid has recovered to some extent, and there has been an increase in low price restocking behavior. The market trading atmosphere has improved, and the demand for adipic acid has supported the spot price.
Market sentiment boost: The low-level consolidation period in the early stage is relatively long, and there is an expectation of a rebound in the market; Stockholders’ inventory is low, bullish sentiment is concentrated and released, and the market is gradually rising.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the trading atmosphere in the Shandong cyclohexanone market is mild, and effective support within the market is still acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, the Shandong cyclohexanone market will mainly operate at a high level of consolidation. More attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as cost side news.