In September 2026, the domestic bisphenol A market saw a sustained upward trend, with the market center steadily rising, ending the previous period of weak volatility. Data shows that the spot price of bisphenol A in the East China market was about 9850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and surged to 11200 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The cumulative increase during the month exceeded 1300 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 13.7%. The trading atmosphere in the industry has significantly rebounded. This round of price increases is driven by the resonance of multiple positive factors such as cost bottoming, supply contraction, and peak season stocking. The market fundamentals continue to improve, while the growth rate at the end of the month slows down and fluctuates slightly, and the future trend is highly concerned by the industry.
The strong upward trend in cost is the core support for the price increase of bisphenol A in this round. The upstream phenol market continued to rise in September, with a cumulative increase of 400-500 yuan/ton in listed prices during the month. Acetone prices remained stable with some increase, and the comprehensive cost of bisphenol A raw materials shifted upward, completely reversing the pattern of cost inversion and low profits in the previous period. Prior to this year, the bisphenol A industry had been in a long-term loss making state, with a significant year-on-year decline in average gross profit from January to September. Production enterprises were under significant pressure, while the increase in raw material prices drove product value recovery. Coupled with the strong operation of international oil prices, the cost support logic of the industry chain continued to solidify, providing a solid foundation for the upward trend of bisphenol A prices.
The supply side continues to be tight, further boosting the market trend. In September, multiple bisphenol A plants in China entered a maintenance and load reduction state, and the overall operating load of the industry remained low. Overall, the average weekly operating rate of the bisphenol A industry in the third quarter was only around 65%, a significant decline compared to the same period last year. Enterprise inventory remained low, spot circulation was tight, and holders had a strong mentality of raising prices. The market bargaining center continued to shift upwards. The rebound of the peak season on the demand side has formed an effective support. September is the traditional “Golden September” peak season for the chemical industry, with downstream epoxy resin and polycarbonate industries steadily increasing their operating rates, and demand for stocking in terminal coatings, electronics, plastics, and other industries being released. Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory before the holiday, and the market demand trading is active, effectively digesting on-site spot resources. However, as prices continue to rise, downstream consumers tend to be cautious about buying at high prices, mainly focusing on on-demand procurement, with less large-scale hoarding behavior, which to some extent limits the potential for market surges, resulting in a slowdown and narrow range fluctuations in the market at the end of the month.
Looking ahead to the future, the short-term bisphenol A market may maintain a high level of volatility and a slightly strong trend, with a low probability of significant fluctuations. On the supply side, the pace of resuming production of short-term maintenance equipment is slow, and the industry’s low operating and low inventory pattern is difficult to quickly reverse. The tight spot market pattern will continue to support prices. On the cost side, the prices of upstream phenolic ketone raw materials remain firm, and the support for costs remains strong. The industry’s profit recovery trend will continue.
From the demand side, downstream replenishment demand or phased release after the National Day holiday will support market demand, but the overall demand resilience of the terminal industry is average, coupled with high price suppression, and the demand increment is relatively limited. In the medium to long term, with the concentrated resumption of maintenance equipment, the increase in market supply will gradually be released, and the tight supply-demand balance pattern will be alleviated. The upward momentum of the market may gradually weaken. Overall, the fundamentals of the bisphenol A market in the future are stable, with short-term highs being the main focus. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of plant resumption, fluctuations in raw material prices, and the landing of downstream peak season demand.